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Ow Canada: 2016 NHL Playoffs Will Have 0 Teams From Great White North


WordsOfWisdom

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The "writing is on the wall" as they say:

  • Calgary (out)
  • Winnipeg (out)
  • Edmonton (out -- a given)
  • Vancouver (window of opportunity long since shut, out?)
  • Toronto (out -- also a given)
  • Ottawa (lost in the shuffle, out?)
  • Montreal (a one dimensional team that is fading fast and soon to be out?)

:ermm:

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@WordsOfWisdom

 

I realize things playoff-wise don't look too rosy for the Great White North, but honestly, I would not worry about not having a Canadian representative when all is said and done after Game 82.

Let's start with the Montreal Canadiens.

Sure, they have been losing games left and right lately, but they ARE going to get Carey Price back before the season is over. And they still hang on to the 3rd guaranteed playoff spot and the teams behind them are Tampa Bay, Boston, and Ottawa (with Toronto and Buffalo quite a distance further back). Outside of the Bolts fully 'waking up', I don't see a team in that group that can overtake, then bury the Canadiens and keep them from the top three or even the Wild Card.

And as for Detroit and Florida in FRONT of the Habs? Well, they are doing great right now. But both teams still have enough flaws where I can also see them going through some rough patches and be susceptible to slipping in the standings. NO ONE in the Atlantic Division is dominant. The Bolts were expected to be just that this year, they obviously are not, so that leaves the door open for playoff spots up n down the division to a wide range of teams...of which, the Habs have the most on the team (especially once Price gets back) to grab and keep a playoff spot.

And even if they fall to the Wild Card mix, they then have to contend with the likes of New Jersey, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Pittsburgh for that. The Pens, like the Lightning in the Atlantic, being the most dangerous team if they can 'wake up' as well. Washington and both New York teams look solid (despite the Rangers' own current issues) to get in, but if I am the Habs, NJ, Phi, and Carolina don't worry me.

Now, what the Habs will do once in is another story, but I say they make it in...whether as a top three or wild card team, they get in. There just aren't enough lockdown teams in the East to keep them out, IMO.

Sens and Leafs on the other hand? Yea, those two may not see anything past Game 82. Ottawa has the better chance of pulling rabbits out of their collective arses due to their sometimes prolific offense and goaltending, but it will be an uphill battle for sure for those guys. Leafs are still searching for their NHL ID card before being admitted to play for Lord Stanley's Cup.... :cool[1]:

 

Out West things get trickier.

The Jets were SUPPOSED to be a no-brainer, but they reside in the toughest division in hockey, and even the Avalanche are looking better than they are for the last month or so. That said, the Jets have been playing better lately, and although a top three slot seems near impossible due to Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago and Minnesota all fighting for that, a WC spot isn't totally out of the question for them. But they WILL need to be better than Colorado, Nashville, and whichever teams don't make the top three out of the Pacific.

Speaking of the Pacific, I find it hard to believe that outside of Los Angeles, the rest of the teams can lay a claim to 'owning lock stock n barrel' any playoff spots.

Teams like the Sharks and Coyotes have been so up n down all season, that really, who can know how they will end up? Vancouver themselves have looked real good some weeks, pretty terrible in others. Edmonton and Calgary, who IMO, SHOULD be contending for playoff spots, are obviously out, but don't count out Calgary as I feel they haven't played to the best of their abilities yet this season, and who knows how much better Edmonton can play once they get McDavid back (and they will!) and Cam Talbot settles back in to being the good goalie that the Oil traded for.

The Jets and Canucks may be in the biggest trouble trying to crack the playoffs due to Wpg being in such a tough division and the Canucks being wildly in consistent (and sometimes, even looking 'old'), but it would not surprise me at all if one of, or both, of Calgary or Edmonton made advances up the standings once they are both fully healthy and playing like they are supposed to.

So to summerize my friend, I say you will see the Habs from the East for sure...with a small chance the Sens get in too.

Out West, I'd say look for either the Flames or Oilers to get in (small chance both do), but don't hold your breath for the Canucks or Jets, unless one of those two clubs just goes on a major run in the next month or so.

Like I said, the West is very tricky to predict for Canadian based teams.

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LOL. There is not really much 'Canadian' about the Canadian based teams anyway. That's why I like international play better than the NHL. These days all the teams play the same way, and most of the players come through Canadian junior hockey - including Americans and Europeans. It was way better back when we hardly knew the Europeans - much more interesting then. Last time I checked I believe it was LA that had the most Canadians on their roster. 

However WOW I'm sure Gary will be very happy.....:lol: 

P.S. Montreal will likely be the only Canadian based team to make the play offs once they get Price back.

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6 hours ago, BluPuk said:

LOL. There is not really much 'Canadian' about the Canadian based teams anyway. That's why I like international play better than the NHL. These days all the teams play the same way, and most of the players come through Canadian junior hockey - including Americans and Europeans. It was way better back when we hardly knew the Europeans - much more interesting then. Last time I checked I believe it was LA that had the most Canadians on their roster. 

However WOW I'm sure Gary will be very happy.....:lol: 

P.S. Montreal will likely be the only Canadian based team to make the play offs once they get Price back.

Yeah. I'll bet Gary has been giving it a good tug lately while holding a copy of the latest standings in his other hand. :drool:

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17 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

@WordsOfWisdom

 

I realize things playoff-wise don't look too rosy for the Great White North, but honestly, I would not worry about not having a Canadian representative when all is said and done after Game 82.

Let's start with the Montreal Canadiens.

Sure, they have been losing games left and right lately, but they ARE going to get Carey Price back before the season is over. And they still hang on to the 3rd guaranteed playoff spot and the teams behind them are Tampa Bay, Boston, and Ottawa (with Toronto and Buffalo quite a distance further back). Outside of the Bolts fully 'waking up', I don't see a team in that group that can overtake, then bury the Canadiens and keep them from the top three or even the Wild Card.

And as for Detroit and Florida in FRONT of the Habs? Well, they are doing great right now. But both teams still have enough flaws where I can also see them going through some rough patches and be susceptible to slipping in the standings. NO ONE in the Atlantic Division is dominant. The Bolts were expected to be just that this year, they obviously are not, so that leaves the door open for playoff spots up n down the division to a wide range of teams...of which, the Habs have the most on the team (especially once Price gets back) to grab and keep a playoff spot.

And even if they fall to the Wild Card mix, they then have to contend with the likes of New Jersey, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Pittsburgh for that. The Pens, like the Lightning in the Atlantic, being the most dangerous team if they can 'wake up' as well. Washington and both New York teams look solid (despite the Rangers' own current issues) to get in, but if I am the Habs, NJ, Phi, and Carolina don't worry me.

Now, what the Habs will do once in is another story, but I say they make it in...whether as a top three or wild card team, they get in. There just aren't enough lockdown teams in the East to keep them out, IMO.

Sens and Leafs on the other hand? Yea, those two may not see anything past Game 82. Ottawa has the better chance of pulling rabbits out of their collective arses due to their sometimes prolific offense and goaltending, but it will be an uphill battle for sure for those guys. Leafs are still searching for their NHL ID card before being admitted to play for Lord Stanley's Cup.... :cool[1]:

 

Out West things get trickier.

The Jets were SUPPOSED to be a no-brainer, but they reside in the toughest division in hockey, and even the Avalanche are looking better than they are for the last month or so. That said, the Jets have been playing better lately, and although a top three slot seems near impossible due to Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago and Minnesota all fighting for that, a WC spot isn't totally out of the question for them. But they WILL need to be better than Colorado, Nashville, and whichever teams don't make the top three out of the Pacific.

Speaking of the Pacific, I find it hard to believe that outside of Los Angeles, the rest of the teams can lay a claim to 'owning lock stock n barrel' any playoff spots.

Teams like the Sharks and Coyotes have been so up n down all season, that really, who can know how they will end up? Vancouver themselves have looked real good some weeks, pretty terrible in others. Edmonton and Calgary, who IMO, SHOULD be contending for playoff spots, are obviously out, but don't count out Calgary as I feel they haven't played to the best of their abilities yet this season, and who knows how much better Edmonton can play once they get McDavid back (and they will!) and Cam Talbot settles back in to being the good goalie that the Oil traded for.

The Jets and Canucks may be in the biggest trouble trying to crack the playoffs due to Wpg being in such a tough division and the Canucks being wildly in consistent (and sometimes, even looking 'old'), but it would not surprise me at all if one of, or both, of Calgary or Edmonton made advances up the standings once they are both fully healthy and playing like they are supposed to.

So to summerize my friend, I say you will see the Habs from the East for sure...with a small chance the Sens get in too.

Out West, I'd say look for either the Flames or Oilers to get in (small chance both do), but don't hold your breath for the Canucks or Jets, unless one of those two clubs just goes on a major run in the next month or so.

Like I said, the West is very tricky to predict for Canadian based teams.

LOL. I had to quote the entire thing.  :P

My take on Canada's teams is as follows:

  • Montreal: A team that started really well, but a team that has serious flaws (which they try to cover up with Price in net). There are a lot of really good goalies out there, and it's such a fickle position at the best of times. What if Price can't carry this team on his shoulders when he comes back? What if his stats take a dip? I could easily see the Habs finishing 9th or 10th in the east. They needed to acquire scoring help in the off-season and I teased and blasted them relentlessly on this forum for not doing so. I've labelled them as the David Simms of hockey (a Tin Cup movie reference). This ain't your father's Habs team. This franchise is content to be mediocre these days. :o
  • Vancouver: This is a team that needs a new core. Their window of opportunity has closed. They had their chance a few years ago, and now they have been on a slow regression ever since. I see the Canucks trending downward the next few years. 
  • Winnipeg: Ah, the team that always lets its fans down. They should call it Loseipeg. I just can't ever believe that this team will do anything amazing because in their entire franchise history (both of them) they never have. The Jets can't attract big name players and keep them in Winnipeg, and they don't play the underdog role very well either as we saw last season when the Ducks quietly dismantled them in 4 straight games.
  • Calgary: A team that overachieved last year and got its "correction" this year. The Flames just aren't a good team, especially not in the vicious Western conf. 
  • Edmonton: Hopeless -- or as close to it as you can get. Too big of a hill to climb, even when McJesus comes back. 
  • Toronto: Hopeless -- the Eastern conference equivalent to the Oilers. This team is more likely to finish last every year than make the playoffs.
  • Ottawa: The "lost in the shuffle" team. There are too many teams in the mix in the east, and Ottawa has nothing to make them stand out among their rivals. I just don't see the numbers game going in the Sens favour. 
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9 hours ago, BluPuk said:

That looks about right @WordsOfWisdom

It's those other odds I like - the ones for the Leafs getting the first overall pick....:ahappy:

 

Yep, a few teams rose, but the Leafs and Oilers fell.

 

I can't believe how bad a team has to be to finish 30th. It's hard to suck like Edmonton, Buffalo, and Columbus. I mean it's really hard... even for the Leafs! That's saying something. The Leafs are good at being crap, but even we stand in awe at the level of crap of those teams.  

 

I love it! Our avatar logos are twins now!!!  :hyper:

 

 

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Given the fact that only two of Canada's teams have been even moderately competitive in recent years (Vancouver and Montreal), it is time to admit that the problem here is systemic? That is to say, that Canada's teams will never succeed because of the fact that the fans care too much. ie: The fans don't stay away when the team is losing. Management knows they are operating with a permanent safety net of sorts, and they're under no pressure to ice a successful hockey club as a result.  :ermm:

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Reality hits home hard this week. Latest playoff odds for Canada's teams:

  • :canucks: Vancouver: 10.6%
  • :canadiens: Montreal: 5.2%
  • :flames: Calgary: 5.1%
  • :jets: Winnipeg: 3.8%
  • :senators: Ottawa: 2.7%
  • :oilers: Edmonton: 0.2%
  • :mapleleafs: Toronto: 0.1% 

 

Okay, I get that Montreal has been in free-fall and Ottawa has been treading water lately, but the odds for those two seem brutally low. Neither is more than six points out of a playoff spot, and getting hot for 2 or 3 weeks could change that quickly. I laugh at the idea that Vancouver has the best odds. I know they're in the Pacific Division and that increases their chances, but that's still laughable as far as I'm concerned.

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2 hours ago, ScottM said:

 

Okay, I get that Montreal has been in free-fall and Ottawa has been treading water lately, but the odds for those two seem brutally low. Neither is more than six points out of a playoff spot, and getting hot for 2 or 3 weeks could change that quickly. I laugh at the idea that Vancouver has the best odds. I know they're in the Pacific Division and that increases their chances, but that's still laughable as far as I'm concerned.

 

Here is how Montreal's playoff odds break down:

 

mtl.png.078905285c4127577aa90ddb411fc103

 

Basically what this shows is every possible record that Montreal can finish the season with -- while still making the playoffs. The count column lists the number of permutations of each particular record. Long story short, there are 131 million possible outcomes to the season out of 2.5 billion that see Montreal in the playoffs. Thus, the extremely low playoff odds.

 

Kudos to sportsclubstats.com for doing all the legwork on this stuff.  :thumbsu:

 

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3 hours ago, ScottM said:

 

Okay, I get that Montreal has been in free-fall and Ottawa has been treading water lately, but the odds for those two seem brutally low. Neither is more than six points out of a playoff spot, and getting hot for 2 or 3 weeks could change that quickly. I laugh at the idea that Vancouver has the best odds. I know they're in the Pacific Division and that increases their chances, but that's still laughable as far as I'm concerned.

Sorry Scott, you ain't making the playoffs...

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42 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Here is how Montreal's playoff odds break down:

 

mtl.png.078905285c4127577aa90ddb411fc103

 

Basically what this shows is every possible record that Montreal can finish the season with -- while still making the playoffs. The count column lists the number of permutations of each particular record. Long story short, there are 131 million possible outcomes to the season out of 2.5 billion that see Montreal in the playoffs. Thus, the extremely low playoff odds.

 

Kudos to sportsclubstats.com for doing all the legwork on this stuff.  :thumbsu:

 

 

Based on that, I guess every outcome is considered as likely as another? I guess it makes more sense that way.

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2 hours ago, ScottM said:

 

Based on that, I guess every outcome is considered as likely as another? I guess it makes more sense that way.

 

Yeah. I forget exactly how they do it. I think it's just "flip a coin" on who wins or loses, and then there's a separate one that uses a weighted approach. (Montreal would do even worse with a weighted approach because it would take their current W-L record and simply project it forward, meaning they would be even less likely to finish in a playoff spot.) :)

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The latest on the Canadian clubs:

  • :oilers: Edmonton: 0.007%
  • :mapleleafs: Toronto: 0.007 %

 

So you're telling me there's a chance...

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