jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Interesting story by Kevin Allen of USA Today sports. His theory is that some players are shooting the puck from anywhere on the ice because it generates positive Corsi stats. Of course, in real life, away from the analytical stats, if you shoot from center ice with no puck support, it is an easy save for the goalie and basically a turnover which allows the opposing team to gain possession rather easily. Yet, the shot itself helps support your Corsi rating, which in turn can be used to leverage a better deal come contract time. I can't say I've really noticed this, but then again, I have not been looking for it either. I suppose there is always some idiots in the crowd that may hurt the team to gain stats. Interesting theory. I really like Wings coach Blaishill's take on the whole thing at the end of this story. He has it right I believe. http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2016/11/16/advanced-stats-analytics-nhl-corsi-trotz-blashill-cheveldayoff/93930520/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Kevin Allen would make a fortune if he took his mind reading act on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 15 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: Kevin Allen would make a fortune if he took his mind reading act on the road. Now that I'm thinking about it, I'm almost convinced that Jake Gardiner of the Leafs might be pulling off this little stunt. Here is a guy that leads all Leaf d-men in Corsi....all my Leaf buddies point to that stat over and over....BUT, to me....he does not pass the eye test. He is horrible in his own end, inconsistent with the first pass out of the zone and is quite easy to cycle against. Maybe he is letting a few rip from far out, ...friggin stat padder.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, jammer2 said: Now that I'm thinking about it, I'm almost convinced that Jake Gardiner of the Leafs might be pulling off this little stunt. Here is a guy that leads all Leaf d-men in Corsi....all my Leaf buddies point to that stat over and over....BUT, to me....he does not pass the eye test. He is horrible in his own end, inconsistent with the first pass out of the zone and is quite easy to cycle against. Maybe he is letting a few rip from far out, ...friggin stat padder.....lol. I dunno... There's a huge gap between the eyeballs and the data, then. Twenty-two players have shared the ice with Gardiner this year, and 20 of them surrendered fewer chances against compared to when they're not out there with him. His Corsi Against is 56, while the rest of the blueline is anywhere from 61 to 66. I would ask the same thing as in other situations. If Gardiner is so bad in his own end, then why are the Leafs surrendering so many fewer chances in their end when he's on the ice? Chances For / Against? 138 / 97 Chances Against/60? 17.9 (rest of blueline: 23.2) High Danger For / Against? 87 / 47 High Danger Against/60? 9.9 (rest of blueline: 12.1) Gardiner is definitely not just throwing pucks at towards the goal in an effort to boost his Corsi, or he would have a poor High Danger For. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, JR Ewing said: I dunno... There's a huge gap between the eyeballs and the data, then. Twenty-two players have shared the ice with Gardiner this year, and 20 of them surrendered fewer chances against compared to when they're not out there with him. His Corsi Against is 56, while the rest of the blueline is anywhere from 61 to 66. I would ask the same thing as in other situations. If Gardiner is so bad in his own end, then why are the Leafs surrendering so many fewer chances in their end when he's on the ice? Chances For / Against? 138 / 97 Chances Against/60? 17.9 (rest of blueline: 23.2) High Danger For / Against? 87 / 47 High Danger Against/60? 9.9 (rest of blueline: 12.1) Gardiner is definitely not just throwing pucks at towards the goal in an effort to boost his Corsi, or he would have a poor High Danger For. Perhaps I have a built in bias for the Leafs crappiness....who coulda guessed? Honestly, you sound an awful lot like the Leaf fans around here....so maybe there is something I'm missing, or it's just selective vision, recalling the poor plays and ignoring some solid play in his own end. Jake is overrated from where I sit, and soft as the stay puft marshmellow man. He's a very nice skater however and he does skate the puck up the ice once and a while, which is a highly sought after skill.....damn, Tampa gave Matt Carle 5 mill a season a few years back, (and that was when 5 mill meant a bit more than it does now.) and Matt's ability to lug the puck was a big part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, JR Ewing said: Gardiner is definitely not just throwing pucks at towards the goal in an effort to boost his Corsi, or he would have a poor High Danger For. I thought "High Danger For" was a robot reference from the show Lost in Space....DANGER...DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!! ha ha never heard of HDF, did not even know it was a stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just a thought, but maybe advanced stats are one big massive conspiracy, they guarantee that geeks everywhere will have suitable employment for the next century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 24 minutes ago, jammer2 said: Perhaps I have a built in bias for the Leafs crappiness....who coulda guessed? Honestly, you sound an awful lot like the Leaf fans around here....so maybe there is something I'm missing, or it's just selective vision, recalling the poor plays and ignoring some solid play in his own end. We all have selective vision, and build memories based on recalling the basics and often fill in the rest based on bias. http://science.time.com/2013/11/19/remember-that-no-you-dont-study-shows-false-memories-afflict-us-all/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/mind-guest-blog/what-experts-wish-you-knew-about-false-memories/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/08/24/why-experts-get-it-wrong-being-knowledgeable-about-a-subject-imp/ I know I've encountered this many times in my life, and one of the damned toughest things to do is go on from that and seek independent confirmation which has as little subjectivity as possible. Sometimes I do alright, sometimes I fall short. 24 minutes ago, jammer2 said: Jake is overrated from where I sit, and soft as the stay puft marshmellow man. He's a very nice skater however and he does skate the puck up the ice once and a while, which is a highly sought after skill.....damn, Tampa gave Matt Carle 5 mill a season a few years back, (and that was when 5 mill meant a bit more than it does now.) and Matt's ability to lug the puck was a big part of the equation. I think he's quite good at what he does, and I'm not concerned so much with how he does it, but with how effective he is. In his case, the puck consistently moves the right direction and a lot of dangerous chances are created, all while allowing fewer dangerous chances in Toronto's end. This is a good thing. However, a team should seek balance. I wouldn't want 6 Jake Gardiners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, jammer2 said: Just a thought, but maybe advanced stats are one big massive conspiracy, they guarantee that geeks everywhere will have suitable employment for the next century. The Trumpian thinking runs deep don't it jammer? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 14 minutes ago, Podein25 said: The Trumpian thinking runs deep don't it jammer? Lol This just in, Trump announces he's not opposed to a toned down version of the purge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, JR Ewing said: However, a team should seek balance. I wouldn't want 6 Jake Gardiners. Usually, you have the slick skating offensive d-man paired with the slower, stay at home defender. This in theory, gives the offensive player a little more leeway to join the rush or create odd man situations. The problem with this scenario in relation to the Leafs is you are paired with a real slug, either Roman Polak or Mancarin. The bigger TO defenders are so slow that Jake can't roam like he should be able to. I've noticed that Jake rarely fully commits to jumping into the play offensively, perhaps it's the slug partner that gives him pause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted November 20, 2016 Author Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, JR Ewing said: I think he's quite good at what he does, and I'm not concerned so much with how he does it, but with how effective he is. In his case, the puck consistently moves the right direction and a lot of dangerous chances are created, all while allowing fewer dangerous chances in Toronto's end. This is a good thing. He reminds me of a faster version of Matt Carle. Same lack of tenacity, same puck lugging ability, both work the 2nd power play. Hard to believe Matt has been a healthy scratch for 13 games in a row. His career just might be winding down really early. Man, it has to hurt paying him 5 mill a year to sit in the press box. I could see Jake falling off the face of the earth in 3-4 years when he reaches his 30's just like Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
More Hockey Stats Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 On 11/20/2016 at 7:34 AM, jammer2 said: Interesting story by Kevin Allen of USA Today sports. His theory is that some players are shooting the puck from anywhere on the ice because it generates positive Corsi stats. Of course, in real life, away from the analytical stats, if you shoot from center ice with no puck support, it is an easy save for the goalie and basically a turnover which allows the opposing team to gain possession rather easily. Yet, the shot itself helps support your Corsi rating, which in turn can be used to leverage a better deal come contract time. I can't say I've really noticed this, but then again, I have not been looking for it either. I suppose there is always some idiots in the crowd that may hurt the team to gain stats. Interesting theory. I really like Wings coach Blaishill's take on the whole thing at the end of this story. He has it right I believe. http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2016/11/16/advanced-stats-analytics-nhl-corsi-trotz-blashill-cheveldayoff/93930520/ This is the most natural and expected thing to happen. Especially for players in the last year of their contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hf101 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 34 minutes ago, More Hockey Stats said: This is the most natural and expected thing to happen. Especially for players in the last year of their contracts. Shots per game are up a bit this year so far amongst the 30 teams. 2014-15: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 24.2 - 33.9. 2015-16: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 24.4 - 33.2. 2016-17 thus far: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 27.9 - 34.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
More Hockey Stats Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 30 minutes ago, hf101 said: Shots per game are up a bit this year so far amongst the 30 teams. 2014-15: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 24.2 - 33.9. 2015-16: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 24.4 - 33.2. 2016-17 thus far: Shots per game range per all 30 teams was 27.9 - 34.6. That's not "a bit". That's "quite a bit". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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