Capitals struggles

[yave1964]

Last season Washington ran all over the league, the Presidents trophy, Holtby tying the record for wins by a goalie, young bright stars everywhere surrounded by grizzled vets. They bowed out in the second round to eventual champ Pittsburgh but in a rarity in todays salary cap world managed to retain the entire team and add Lars Eller to fill the biggest hole on the team, the 3C. More of the same was expected.

 

 So far through a third of the season it has not went according to script. They are limping along tied for 8th in the East. The question is why?

 

 The Capitals were second behind only thje high scoring Stars in goals scored and were second in least among goals allowed only one more than the Ducks. They were a very well balanced team top to bottom. Not so much this year. This season Justin Williams is showing his age, slowed down and having only 2 goals, the other import from a year ago Oshie has been good but is now injured. Lars Eller brought in to fill the gaping hole at 3C has been a complete non factor. Rugged Tom Wilson who showed a penchant for scoring as well as fighting this year has only one point all year.Import Brett Connolly brought in for secondary offense has 2 goals and has been ripped for his defense.

 

  For all of that, IMHO here are the biggest things wrong:

 

1) Zero offense from the back end, last year they got a very acceptable 32 goals from the back end, this season they have a pathetic 3. Carlson and Niskanen banged in 13 between them last year this year they have zero. The back end has not supported the forwards at all.

 

2) Evgeny Kuznetsov was last years breakout superstar leading the team in scoring going 20-57-77 and plus 27 with 18 power play points, this year he has a rotten 3 goals and 10 points through 24 games. He has been out of sync all year forcing Backstrom back to the first line and in essence making the team a one line club. Andre Burakovsky last years other breakout player has disappeared as well.

 

3) Braden Holtby set the record for most wins in a regular season last year with 48 and won the Vezina. This year his goals against and save pct. are both slightly better than last year but he has struggled in the third period blowing several leads with soft goals. It is one thing to perform well when you are up 5-1 in the third, it is another in a tight game because the offense is struggling.

 

 Note that I did not mention Backstrom or Ovie, Ovechkin is on pace for 40 plus goals again and Backstrom like punching a clock will again have his usual 75-80 points including 25-30 on the power play. The only player who has actually stepped up and outperformed last years numbers is Marcus Johansson who had 17 goals all of last year and already has 11 this year.

 

  They are a young and mega talented team with skill everywhere and IMHO they will turn it around at some point and get it together. I do believe that they need a goal scoring blueliner in the worst possible way, the addition of one would fix the team considerably.

 

 

[nossagog]

First off, I think you've broken a general hockey internet rule of posting that picture of Ovie and the golf clubs prior to the April time frame.  You're supposed to let it build throughout the year, and savor it when it happens. 

 

As for their problems, I think it comes down to their power play.  So your comment on the back end scoring may go a little further in that they just don't have that Mike Green type defenseman to lead the offense from the blue line.     Their Power Play the last 4 years was  21.9%,25.3%,23.4%,26.8%, this year its at 15.2% and ranked at 23rd in the league even though they're number of power play attempts is at a slightly higher rate than they have been getting.   That's a big difference from the lethal PP that the Caps usually have.  Its why their key offensive players numbers are down.  

 

You kind or write off Ovie, but he's on pace for 40 goals exactly for the year.  I don't think that 's what they need from him.  For the Caps to be successful, he needs to be up at the 50 goal 80 point range.  Now he hasn't gone on one of his typical tears in the second half of the year yet, but he's not getting the shots that he normally does.  At his current pace he would end the year at about 316 shots on goal, which would be his second lowest ever for an 82 game season.   Part of this is his TOI is down about a minute a game.   Hopefully for them it may pay dividends at the end of the season.   And again, if they can get the PP going, then that number picks it up.

 

Backstrom your spot on with.  He's on pace for a typical year even with the team struggling a little.  If the whole team picks up things, I think his numbers could be on pace for his second best season ever.  

 

I look for them to make a play for a big time offensive defenseman to boost their team.   Niskanen and Carlson are not going to ever put up big numbers and they are the Caps top minutes pairing.  And Carlson's four assists on the power play as their top blueliner is a little under whelming. 

[J0e Th0rnton]

1 hour ago, nossagog said:

First off, I think you've broken a general hockey internet rule of posting that picture of Ovie and the golf clubs prior to the April time frame.  You're supposed to let it build throughout the year, and savor it when it happens. 

 

As for their problems, I think it comes down to their power play.  So your comment on the back end scoring may go a little further in that they just don't have that Mike Green type defenseman to lead the offense from the blue line.     Their Power Play the last 4 years was  21.9%,25.3%,23.4%,26.8%, this year its at 15.2% and ranked at 23rd in the league even though they're number of power play attempts is at a slightly higher rate than they have been getting.   That's a big difference from the lethal PP that the Caps usually have.  Its why their key offensive players numbers are down.  

 

You kind or write off Ovie, but he's on pace for 40 goals exactly for the year.  I don't think that 's what they need from him.  For the Caps to be successful, he needs to be up at the 50 goal 80 point range.  Now he hasn't gone on one of his typical tears in the second half of the year yet, but he's not getting the shots that he normally does.  At his current pace he would end the year at about 316 shots on goal, which would be his second lowest ever for an 82 game season.   Part of this is his TOI is down about a minute a game.   Hopefully for them it may pay dividends at the end of the season.   And again, if they can get the PP going, then that number picks it up.

 

Backstrom your spot on with.  He's on pace for a typical year even with the team struggling a little.  If the whole team picks up things, I think his numbers could be on pace for his second best season ever.  

 

I look for them to make a play for a big time offensive defenseman to boost their team.   Niskanen and Carlson are not going to ever put up big numbers and they are the Caps top minutes pairing.  And Carlson's four assists on the power play as their top blueliner is a little under whelming. 

Its a slow start. 10 points in 24 games is not exactly uncommon.

His 55 points 2 years ago and his 39 points in 56 games last year say he probably will indeed put up good numbers again.

 

A lot of Dmen are being plagued by a slow start ATM. OEL has 13 points in 24 games, Ghost has 13 in 26, Doughty has 13 in 25, Klingberg has 12 in 24, Barrie has 11 in 23, Giordano has 10 in 28, Faulk has 8 in 22, Ekblad 8 in 24.

 

Most Dmen will get a lot of their points from secondary assists, so if the forwards are not in the zone, neither will they be.

[yave1964]

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Its a slow start. 10 points in 24 games is not exactly uncommon.

His 55 points 2 years ago and his 39 points in 56 games last year say he probably will indeed put up good numbers again.

 

A lot of Dmen are being plagued by a slow start ATM. OEL has 13 points in 24 games, Ghost has 13 in 26, Doughty has 13 in 25, Klingberg has 12 in 24, Barrie has 11 in 23, Giordano has 10 in 28, Faulk has 8 in 22, Ekblad 8 in 24.

 

Most Dmen will get a lot of their points from secondary assists, so if the forwards are not in the zone, neither will they be.

My problem with Carlson is he really is not a goal scorer. You will get assists simply being on the ice with guys like Ovie and Backstrom but as far as goals go, in his six full seasons he has averaged 8 and a half goals a year with a career high of only 12. They need a goal scoring presence on the back end to help the forwards. I like Carlson as a player but he is a bit overrated, he is not in the elite class of d-men, he is middle of the pack of the next level IMHO and too much is being expected of him. If they can add an offensive presence on the back end it will help not only the team in general but him as well as less will be demanded of him.

[J0e Th0rnton]

10 hours ago, yave1964 said:

My problem with Carlson is he really is not a goal scorer. You will get assists simply being on the ice with guys like Ovie and Backstrom but as far as goals go, in his six full seasons he has averaged 8 and a half goals a year with a career high of only 12. They need a goal scoring presence on the back end to help the forwards. I like Carlson as a player but he is a bit overrated, he is not in the elite class of d-men, he is middle of the pack of the next level IMHO and too much is being expected of him. If they can add an offensive presence on the back end it will help not only the team in general but him as well as less will be demanded of him.

Most Dmen are not goal scorers. He does have a wicked point shot. Its up to the forwards to capitalize on rebounds.

 

He has only been up and coming to #1 Dman for 3 years now and has 10 goals, 37 points in 82 games(before he was #1), 12 goals and 55 points in 82 games and 8 goals and 39 points in 56 games. Average that last season over 82 games and its 12 goals.

 

He ain't Brent Burns offensively, but neither is Duncan Keith or Ryan Suter or Kris Letang. Those guys are considered good to terrific offensively and average from 6-12 goals per season.

 

[pilldoc]

I will back this up later as I am at work, but it comes down to SH%.  Last year vs this year vs career.  When I have time later today I will go more in depth.

[pilldoc]

On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 3:44 AM, yave1964 said:

The only player who has actually stepped up and outperformed last years numbers is Marcus Johansson who had 17 goals all of last year and already has 11 this year

 

I agree to a point, but he has a SH% at unsustainable rate of 22.5%  It is unrealistic to think he carries that through the entire year.  He started off tremendously with a hot start, but has since cooled.  Only 6 goals  and 3 assists in the 16 games.  Playing on a line with Backstrom and Oshie one would think he should benefit more.

 

I still think the success we associated with the Caps from a Fantasy POV had to do with many players having SH% higher than what their career average suggests.

 

From an excellent article I read .... (here is a snippet)

Possession & Luck Charts

26.1 Introduction

 

With a firm understanding of enhanced stats under our belts, we can now turn to the idea of analyzing teams using these stats. In a broad sense, two of the most important statistical ideas that you can use to analyze a team are possession and luck. Possession stats tell us which teams are consistently outshooting their opponents.1

 

Measurements of luck tell us which teams are playing beyond their means.

With that in mind, we used this off-season to develop a new chart to analyze hockey teams. We call this chart, the Pluck Chart.2

 

26.2 Four Types of Teams in the Pluck Chart

 

These charts contain a significant amount of data to process. But we are confident that once you practice with them, you'll find them extremely useful.3

 

Figure 26.1 is the 2015-2016 version of the Pluck Chart. We'll start with a very broad overview and then work ourselves into the fine details. Essentially, the chart plots possession on the horizontal axis (x-axis) and luck on the vertical axis (y-axis). Specifically, the x-axis is USAT% and the y-axis is SPSV%.4

 

Let's ignore the bubbles and colors for now and imagine each team is just a dot. If your dot lives on the right hand side of the chart, then your team consistently outshoots their opponents during games. If your dot lives on the left hand side of the chart, then your team is consistently being outshot by their opponents during games.

 

If your dot lives in the top half of the graph, then your team's results this season have been boosted by good luck. If your dot lives in the bottom half of the graph, then your team's results this season have been muted by bad luck.

 

Easy enough. Now, let's put it all together. Teams in the upper-left quadrant of the chart are weak possession teams (they are consistently outshot by their opponents) and their results have been boosted by luck. We can call these teams weak & lucky. Examples from this quadrant include the Colorado Avalanche and the Arizona Coyotes.

 

Teams in the upper-right quadrant of the chart are strong possession teams (they are consistently outshooting their opponents) and their results have been boosted by luck. We can call these teams strong & lucky. Examples from this quadrant include the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

 

Teams in the lower-right quadrant of the chart are strong possession teams that had their results muted by luck. We can call these teams strong & unlucky. Examples from this quadrant include the Anaheim Ducks and the Nashville Predators.

 

Finally, teams in the lower-left quadrant of the chart are weak possession teams that had their results muted by luck. We can call these teams weak & unlucky. Examples from this quadrant include the Edmonton Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

26.3 Bubbles & Colors

 

So far, we've used the Pluck Charts to organize NHL teams into four quadrants based on their possession and luck metrics. But these charts contain much more information than that.

Each team is labeled as a colored bubble on the chart (not a dot as we noted earlier for simplification).

 

Both the color and size of the bubble tell us details about each team. The color of each bubble,

ranging from white to dark orange, tells us the team's even-strength save percentage (EVSV%).5  A color scale to the right of the chart helps you understand the numbers. The idea here is that if your color is far from average, then you're team has experienced atypical save percentage numbers at even-strength.6

The league average EVSV% has been around .923 the past few seasons.

 

The size of each bubble tells you the team's even strength shooting percentage (EVSH%). The larger the bubble, the larger the value. League average shooting percentage (for a team and at even-strength) is 7.7%. It is uncommon for teams to stray very far from this number for long periods of time.

 

Essentially, what is happening here with the bubbles is that we're taking the y-axis value for each team and splitting it into two individual components (EVSV% is bubble color and EVSH% is bubble size). And this simple extension creates a very powerful tool.

 

1 Teams that consistently outshoot their opponents, more often than not, end up in the playoffs.

 

2 You might notice that this name is a not-so-clever confluence of the words possession and luck.

 

3 We mean this in two ways. You can use the charts to analyze hockey teams and you can use the charts to gather

intel for use in fantasy hockey.

 

4 USAT% is a measure of whether or not you're outshooting your opponents at even-strength. SPSV% is the sum of your shooting percentage and save percentage at even-strength.

 

5 This is all goalies on the team combined.

 

6 This is a point of contention among hockey followers. Some teams actually do have a great goalie (or a bad goalie). So, this bubble color is catching some of that talent in its metric as well.

 

See figure listed below

 

So in the case of the Washington Capitals, I think what we are seeing from last year as compared to this year really should not be a surprise to anyone.  Many players last year shot over their career SH PCT.  Some might consider this lucky.  Look at Backstrom and Orpik.  Both shot had significantly highly SH PCT as compared to their career numbers.  I will agree that many of you will look at the differences and say, “well it is a small change” and I will agree.  However, even at a small change, think how many 1 or 2 goal differential games did the Caps win last year.  Take away those goals this year and players simply are not putting up the stats they had last year.

 

Let’s take it one step further.  Compare the Shooting Percent (SH%) of the Caps primary defenseman.  Carlson / Niskanen / Orpik all have a big fat ZERO.  Meanwhile you have Oshie / Johansson / Winnik with totally unsustainable SH% of 21% / 22%/ and 27% respectively. 

 

Yet last year you had a vast majority of the Cap players shoot above their respective SH%.  That is huge both in the real world and for those of us who participate in Fantasy Hockey Leagues.  Remember the Caps were exposed in the playoffs last year by our very own Flyers and then booted out of the playoffs by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. 

 

See figure listed below

 

 

 

 

[pilldoc]

 

 

[pilldoc]

PLAYER	CSHPCT	LYSHPCT	SH PCT (this yr)	Difference               Last YR vs This YR	Difference Last Yr vs Career	Difference This Yr vs Career
Alex Ovechkin	12.4	12.6	14	1.4	0.2	1.6
Nicklas Backstrom	11.7	15.5	13	-2.5	3.8	1.3
T.J. Oshie	12.2	14.1	21.6	7.5	1.9	9.4
Evgeny Kuznetsov	9.9	10.4	9.1	-1.3	0.5	-0.8
John Carlson	5.6	6.5	0	-6.5	0.9	-5.6
Matt Niskanen	4.4	3.3	0	-3.3	-1.1	-4.4
Brooks Orpik	2.8	9.7	0	-9.7	6.9	-2.8
Marcus Johansson	12.8	12.9	22.5	9.6	0.1	9.7
Lars Eller	9.9	8.7	8.3	-0.4	-1.2	-1.6
Justin Williams	9.4	10.9	4.8	-6.1	1.5	-4.6
Andre Burakovsky	13.6	13.5	5.4	-8.1	-0.1	-8.2
Tom Wilson	5.8	7.1	4.5	-2.6	1.3	-1.3
Jay Beagle	8.5	10.8	13.8	3	2.3	5.3
Karl Alzner	3.6	5.3	8.3	3	1.7	4.7
Brett Connolly	9.2	9.5	11.1	1.6	0.3	1.9
Dmitry Orlov	7	8.9	3	-5.9	1.9	-4
Daniel Winnik	6.2	5.9	27.3	21.4	-0.3	21.1
Nate Schmidt	3.1	2.5	0	-2.5	-0.6	-3.1

[yave1964]

@pilldoc

 

Surprised that Kuznetsov is not down more this year from last, very nice chart.

 

@J0e Th0rnton

 

You are right, Letang, Keith and Doughty are not Burns, but Carlson is not Letang, Keith or Doughty, he is a step below those guys IMHO. Not a star, just the best offensive d-man on a goal scoring team who feeds off of his teammates, not the other way around. I see him as an 8 goal, 40 point a year guy which is what he has averaged over his career which is still damn good in today's NHL but to try to rank him higher than that is impossible.

[pilldoc]

5 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

@pilldoc

 

Surprised that Kuznetsov is not down more this year from last, very nice chart.

 

@J0e Th0rnton

 

You are right, Letang, Keith and Doughty are not Burns, but Carlson is not Letang, Keith or Doughty, he is a step below those guys IMHO. Not a star, just the best offensive d-man on a goal scoring team who feeds off of his teammates, not the other way around. I see him as an 8 goal, 40 point a year guy which is what he has averaged over his career which is still damn good in today's NHL but to try to rank him higher than that is impossible.

 

So the real question for that Caps is .....Are they "really" that talented or did they just get lucky last year by having many players shoot over their career SH%? 

 

You mentioned Kuznetsov...had a monster year last year.  I benefited greatly from him in our FHL, however, when it came playoff time...he was non-existent. 

 

The other part of this question is ....As FHL GM's....do we expect TOO much from certain players??

[yave1964]

4 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

So the real question for that Caps is .....Are they "really" that talented or did they just get lucky last year by having many players shoot over their career SH%? 

 

You mentioned Kuznetsov...had a monster year last year.  I benefited greatly from him in our FHL, however, when it came playoff time...he was non-existent. 

 

The other part of this question is ....As FHL GM's....do we expect TOO much from certain players??

 

I believe that they are a very talented team, used to be a one trick pony, shut down Ovie and Backstrom and turn out the lights, although that was easier said than done, now they have the trio of imports from Europe and Oshie so their top six when healthy and clicking can run you over.

  The problem, as I see it is an aging defense, Orpik for one is not his usual shot blocking hard hitting self, Niskanen is not scoring, Carlson while good is just that, good, and not great and never will be, and when you are playing career AHL retread Taylor Chorney every night on the back end there is a problem.

  I still think they have enough up front, moreso even and eventually the forwards will get clicking and Holtby is as good as anyone but they desperately need a 3C which Richards bombed attempting to fill last year and Eller is woefully miscast in this year, and they need an offensive blueliner and get Chorney to the 7D where at best he belongs. If they manage to add the pieces to fill thise two holes at or near the deadline, they might be unstoppable.

[nossagog]

@pilldoc  Interesting stats to look at. Hard to sometimes put all the analytics together.    

5 hours ago, pilldoc said:

I will back this up later as I am at work, but it comes down to SH%.  Last year vs this year vs career.  When I have time later today I will go more in depth.

It would be nice to total shots added into this as it is also a key factor.  Your stats show Ovie with a +1.4 shooting percentage over last year, but as I mentioned earlier, he's on pace for almost 100 shots on goal less than last year(His career average is 384 shots/yr and he's on pace for 316 this year). This has to also be a key factor(at least for him).

[pilldoc]

54 minutes ago, nossagog said:

@pilldoc  Interesting stats to look at. Hard to sometimes put all the analytics together.    

It would be nice to total shots added into this as it is also a key factor.  Your stats show Ovie with a +1.4 shooting percentage over last year, but as I mentioned earlier, he's on pace for almost 100 shots on goal less than last year(His career average is 384 shots/yr and he's on pace for 316 this year). This has to also be a key factor(at least for him).

Agree Noss but Ovie really wasn't on my radar for the Caps problems.  Ovie will always get his shots.  So is he taking less and his teammates taking more and simply not scoring?  Just look at the Caps top defensmen.  Carlson / Orpik / Niskanen.  Not one of them have a goal yet. Here is a listing of total SOG and SOG / game

 

playerName	sog	sogpg
Nicklas Backstrom	52	2.2
Alex Ovechkin	95	4
Marcus Johansson	43	1.8
T.J. Oshie	37	2.2
Jay Beagle	36	1.5
Evgeny Kuznetsov	40	1.7
John Carlson	59	2.5
Dmitry Orlov	39	1.6
Brooks Orpik	26	1.1
Matt Niskanen	47	2
Karl Alzner	27	1.1
Andre Burakovsky	40	1.7
Justin Williams	52	2.2
Lars Eller	30	1.3
Tom Wilson	25	1
Daniel Winnik	12	0.8
Nate Schmidt	24	1.2
Brett Connolly	22	1.5
Taylor Chorney	6	1.5
Paul Carey	3	1

[nossagog]

15 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Agree Noss but Ovie really wasn't on my radar for the Caps problems.  Ovie will always get his shots.  So is he taking less and his teammates taking more and simply not scoring?  Just look at the Caps top defensmen.  Carlson / Orpik / Niskanen.  Not one of them have a goal yet. Here is a listing of total SOG and SOG / game

 

Well when one of your top defenders in minutes, Orpik, has a career high of three goals, you can't expect much.    Even Niskanen has never been relied on for offense. His top year is 10 with the Pens, his highest prior was 7.  Carlson is the only one that consistently takes shots and looks close to being an offensive defenseman.  

 

Maybe the problem is that the transition from the wild wide open offensive days to a more defense posture has finally caught up to them. But in the end maybe that's a good thing for them playoff wise.

[pilldoc]

7 minutes ago, nossagog said:

Maybe the problem is that the transition from the wild wide open offensive days to a more defense posture has finally caught up to them. But in the end maybe that's a good thing for them playoff wise.

 

Bingo !!!! I think you nailed it.  In the long run it will bode well for the Caps come playoff time, but for FHL, GM's might have to start looking elsewhere for points.

[nossagog]

See, all we had to do was talk about their issues, and Carlson goes and scores a goal a few days later. 

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

1000!!!!!!!

 

 

[radoran]

Washington now tied for secondin the east in points.

 

Williams and Oshie have become very productive.

 

And their defense has their backup just .04 behind Holtby in GAA and .002 behind in SV%.

 

Could be that they now realize that a dominating start isn't as important as a strong finish setting them up for a playoff run.

 

They still have A LOT to prove, but reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.