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Gardiner vs Rielly


WordsOfWisdom

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gardiner-rielly.jpg

 

Jake Gardiner vs Morgan Rielly

 

We all know Rielly is "the chosen one", while Gardiner is largely ignored, but here are the numbers so far:

 

PLAYER POS GP G A PTS +/- PIM PPP SHP GWG PTS/G SOG ATOI
                           
Rielly, Morgan D 31 1 14 15 -5 9 3 0 0 0.48 73 22:48
Gardiner, Jake D 31 6 8 14 4 12 5 0 1 0.45 56 20:28

 

It's not even close in terms of goals, and Gardiner is getting more done with fewer shots on goal. Gardiner's ice time is steadily increasing and his numbers reflect that. There's also no competition in +/-.

 

With my stats:

 

  • Gardiner has 9 defensive errors, a +/- of 5, and a defensive percentage of .986. A remarkable turnaround from last season.
  • Rielly has 15 defensive errors, a +/- of 0, and a defensive percentage of .979. Simply not good enough.

 

(Polak, Hunwick, and Zaitsev are the top 3 in defensive percentage, with Gardiner and Rielly 4th and 5th respectively.)

  

 

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I'm not sure what all those stats mean, but if I was coaching and found I needed someone to shut down the opposition in a tight, tough game, I would take Rielly every time. I have no idea what "defensive percentage" is.... 

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5 hours ago, BluPuk said:

I'm not sure what all those stats mean

 

:DohSmiley:

 

5 hours ago, BluPuk said:

if I was coaching and found I needed someone to shut down the opposition in a tight, tough game, I would take Rielly every time.

 

According to the data, the shutdown pair you would want on the ice is Polak and Hunwick. 

 

5 hours ago, BluPuk said:

I have no idea what "defensive percentage" is.... 

 

:DohSmiley:

 

Defensive percentage is the percentage of error-free minutes that the player plays.

 

Gardiner is error-free in 98.6% of those minutes while Rielly is at 97.9%. It may not seem like a lot, but it's a significant difference, just like the difference between a goalie with a .930 (93%) save percentage is when compared to a goalie with .915 (91.5%). That 1% or 2% matters. :)

 

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5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Reilly has 4 years of development to go before he reaches Gardiners age. And he's already a better player IMO.

 

He may be on an upward trajectory in his career, and he may eclipse Gardiner someday, but the numbers just don't agree with the assertion that he is better than Gardiner now. I'm not even sure if Rielly is playing better than he did last season.  :56ce53d1d6689_IDunnoSmiley:

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Nice to see the coaching staff going with Gardiner and Hunwick right now. ie: Giving them more ice time. (What a change from last season.) These two have improved dramatically while Rielly has stagnated or maybe even regressed.

 

Gardiner gets 2 points and goes +2. He's now the Leafs top scoring defenceman. 

 

toi.png 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Quality of opposition explains a lot and PP TOI might also explain alot.

 

Can't understand why Rielly hasn't been used on the PP much? I know the prevailing logic is Rielly needs to be fresh to handle his defensive responsibilities but Zaitsev is Rielly's d partner and lately Babs is using him on the PP.

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11 hours ago, hobie said:

Quality of opposition explains a lot and PP TOI might also explain alot.

 

Can't understand why Rielly hasn't been used on the PP much? I know the prevailing logic is Rielly needs to be fresh to handle his defensive responsibilities but Zaitsev is Rielly's d partner and lately Babs is using him on the PP.

 

I think it's one of those cases where players need to earn their time on the power play and Rielly has only one goal this season. He's just not getting it done offensively other than collecting assists. 

 

If I had to choose between Rielly or Gardiner on the PP, I'd go with Gardiner right now because he's just playing better. :)

 

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5 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I think it's one of those cases where players need to earn their time on the power play and Rielly has only one goal this season. He's just not getting it done offensively other than collecting assists. 

 

If I had to choose between Rielly or Gardiner on the PP, I'd go with Gardiner right now because he's just playing better. :)

 

 

Zaitsev, lately, is being used on the PP and he also has only 1 goal?

 

It's hard to find much fault in TO's PP, it's one of the best in the NHL this year. 

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On 1/14/2017 at 4:24 PM, hobie said:

 

Zaitsev, lately, is being used on the PP and he also has only 1 goal?

 

It's hard to find much fault in TO's PP, it's one of the best in the NHL this year. 

 

If it's working (and it is), they might as well not mess with it. :)

 

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On 1/16/2017 at 6:22 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

If it's working (and it is), they might as well not mess with it. :)

 

 

When TO fired RC TO was knocking on the playoff door and became worse after he was fired. RC wasn't into developing the team, the players, he was more into maximizing what he had. Rielly has been a superior offensive d-man and he still has that capability but totally abandoning Rielly's o game so he can develop into a credible/ good d d-man seems odd to me. The NHL PP is as much a learned part of the game as is d so I think Rielly needs to be learning the PP as much as d. Maximizing and developing is the route to preventing a good thing from going wrong.

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7 hours ago, hobie said:

 

When TO fired RC TO was knocking on the playoff door and became worse after he was fired. RC wasn't into developing the team, the players, he was more into maximizing what he had. Rielly has been a superior offensive d-man and he still has that capability but totally abandoning Rielly's o game so he can develop into a credible/ good d d-man seems odd to me. The NHL PP is as much a learned part of the game as is d so I think Rielly needs to be learning the PP as much as d. Maximizing and developing is the route to preventing a good thing from going wrong.

 

Maybe they want him to become a more complete player? Rielly was quite weak defensively last year and I'm sure they wanted him to iron things out in his own zone first and then worry about offence so that he didn't develop into a one-dimensional guy.  (I'm just guessing though.) :)

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

The latest on Gardiner vs Rielly:

 

  • Gardiner: 6 G, 17 A, 23 PTS, +14, 21:07 ATOI. Advanced stats: 18 DE, 59.8 MBE or .983 DEF%.
  • Rielly: 1 G, 18 A, 19 PTS, -9, 22:17 ATOI. Advanced stats: 21 DE, 47.8 MBE or .979 DEF%.

 

The gap continues to widen. Rielly's stock has really fallen. He was seen as the pivotal blueline guy for the Leafs future. He's not contributing offensively (or is barely contributing offensively) and has become one of the biggest liabilities defensively. He's not quite Marincin or Carrick bad, but he's getting there. 

 

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On 1/17/2017 at 6:05 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Maybe they want him to become a more complete player? Rielly was quite weak defensively last year and I'm sure they wanted him to iron things out in his own zone first and then worry about offence so that he didn't develop into a one-dimensional guy.  (I'm just guessing though.) :)

 

 

I think TO needs to be maximizing Rielly as he gathers experience rather than trying to mold him into some sort of defensive mainstay with some offensive upside. Rielly can move the puck thru passing and mobility and I think he needs to be encouraged to do so which I don't think he has the green light to do so. I don't think Rielly is offensively or defensively superior, his greatest strength is mobility. On a good team Rielly is probably a #3.:bugcrawlsmiley-1: 

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39 minutes ago, hobie said:

Rielly can move the puck thru passing and mobility and I think he needs to be encouraged to do so which I don't think he has the green light to do so.

 

Weird. I figured they would let him pile up as many points as he can and worry about defence later. I'm not sure why he isn't producing any more. The ice time is certainly there for him to put up big numbers.   

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26 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Weird. I figured they would let him pile up as many points as he can and worry about defence later. I'm not sure why he isn't producing any more. The ice time is certainly there for him to put up big numbers.   

 

I get the impression Babs considers Rielly a blank canvass that he's going to make a masterpiece out of. The icetime is there but Rielly rarely gets PP time.

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3 hours ago, hobie said:

 

I get the impression Babs considers Rielly a blank canvass that he's going to make a masterpiece out of. The icetime is there but Rielly rarely gets PP time.

 

If I were Babcock, I'd have him on the power-play and give him the green light to pile up as many points as he can. I'm interested to see what his offensive peak is. :)

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Gardiner is now a +20 player.  I couldn't believe it. I think Rielly was a -13. 

 

The offensive numbers are all tilted towards Gardiner right now, and he's playing much better defensively than Rielly.

 

Has Rielly's growth stunted or is this just an off-year for a young player?

 

Would you consider trading Rielly?

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Gardiner's quality of opposition is much lower than Rielly's, Gardiner also gets far more OZ starts so his possibility of looking better is easier. However Gardiner is making pretty well the most of how he's being played.

 

TO needs a #1 d-man and they're not on the market so until TO can unearth one it will have to make do.

 

Rielly would probably do as well as Gardiner if he was used like Gardiner.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/24/2017 at 2:12 AM, hobie said:

Rielly would probably do as well as Gardiner if he was used like Gardiner.

 

Hmmm.....  let's see what the latest numbers have to say:   :)

 

 

Rielly: 62 GP, 4 G, 20 A, -25. 

Gardiner: 68 GP, 9 G, 25 A, +25.

 

That may be the biggest gap I've ever seen between two players on the same team. 

 

In fact, I took a look at the Leafs stats and my jaw nearly hit the floor when I saw Rielly at -25 and Zaitsev at -21. Gardiner at +25 has more +/- points than the entire team combined. Let me say that again. Gardiner's +/- is higher than every other plus player on the Leafs put together. That has to be an NHL record. :blink[1]:

 

 

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1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Hmmm.....  let's see what the latest numbers have to say:   :)

 

 

Rielly: 62 GP, 4 G, 20 A, -25. 

Gardiner: 68 GP, 9 G, 25 A, +25.

 

That may be the biggest gap I've ever seen between two players on the same team. 

 

In fact, I took a look at the Leafs stats and my jaw nearly hit the floor when I saw Rielly at -25 and Zaitsev at -21. Gardiner at +25 has more +/- points than the entire team combined. Let me say that again. Gardiner's +/- is higher than every other plus player on the Leafs put together. That has to be an NHL record. :blink[1]:

 

 

 

Man did Reilly hit a wall this year. Doesn't even look like the same player. 

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Babs is a good coach, I'm totally convinced but it's quite possible he's not the best coach for Rielly.

 

RC had stated in the past that he was the coach, not a player developer, so he had expected to be given NHL quality players and he'd get the best he could out of them. Babs thru his entire time with Detroit had NHL quality players that he didn't need to figure out how to teach them to become the best they could be. What's the difference, an NHL player needs to find the right place in the line up, Rielly is still figuring out his game before figuring out where he fits in the line up. Babs uses Rielly way differently than RC did.

 

It's possible that Rielly isn't in the right situation for him.

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2 hours ago, hobie said:

Babs is a good coach, I'm totally convinced but it's quite possible he's not the best coach for Rielly.

 

....

 

It's possible that Rielly isn't in the right situation for him.

 

At this point, I'd be okay with the Leafs moving him. Normally I'd say "don't give up on such a young defenceman" but you can tell when guys have figured it out and when guys will never figure it out. Star players don't have such a huge regression in their game, and it doesn't take them years and years to figure out how to excel at the NHL level. How long has Rielly been with the Leafs now? He's not a rookie any more. I don't know how much more coaching he needs. Eventually the player just has to execute.

 

I'm sure he's capable of being more than what we've seen this season, but I'm convinced that he's never going to be good enough to be a top defenceman on a winning team.

 

Rielly's regression has really crushed the Leafs this season. He has cost the Leafs 30 goals this season. That's a huge number. Andersen must be sick and tired of seeing him play 23 minutes a game. Why isn't his ice time being cut back? Why hasn't he been benched? I'd send a message. Give him 15 minutes of ice per game. Start giving more ice time to other guys that deserve it. Gardiner should be #1 on the Leafs in TOI. I'd be using him in all situations. Call up some rookies and play them. Rielly needs to sit for a few games. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

At this point, I'd be okay with the Leafs moving him. Normally I'd say "don't give up on such a young defenceman" but you can tell when guys have figured it out and when guys will never figure it out. Star players don't have such a huge regression in their game, and it doesn't take them years and years to figure out how to excel at the NHL level. How long has Rielly been with the Leafs now? He's not a rookie any more. I don't know how much more coaching he needs. Eventually the player just has to execute.

 

I'm sure he's capable of being more than what we've seen this season, but I'm convinced that he's never going to be good enough to be a top defenceman on a winning team.

 

Rielly's regression has really crushed the Leafs this season. He has cost the Leafs 30 goals this season. That's a huge number. Andersen must be sick and tired of seeing him play 23 minutes a game. Why isn't his ice time being cut back? Why hasn't he been benched? I'd send a message. Give him 15 minutes of ice per game. Start giving more ice time to other guys that deserve it. Gardiner should be #1 on the Leafs in TOI. I'd be using him in all situations. Call up some rookies and play them. Rielly needs to sit for a few games. 

 

 

 

Realistic options?

 

Who deserves it more, who else on TO could play as much as Rielly and provide better results?

 

Chara didn't start to show his superiority until he was into his late 20s.

 

The problem with Phanny wasn't so much his play, IMHO, it was the quality of his play in regards to his salary. Rielly at $5mil per is a calculated gamble, he'd probably be far better with a better d partner but right now Babs sees him as TO's top d-man, 5v5 and Pking. Since Rielly is probably a reasonable compliment to a better partner and on a reasonable contract, there's no reason not to keep him.

 

I do think that Rielly and all of TO's d show how your busy hands theory probably wouldn't work, 6 Riellys would be too expensive and still not good enough to handle quality opposition. It's the opposition's top 2 lines that score, that possess the puck, that require exceptional d-men to handle/control them.

 

I think Rielly will become a very good #2 d-man but a #2 isn't a proper substitute for a real #1.

 

 

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