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Draft Choice Junkies


hobie

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I think a lot of Leaf fans have become draft choice junkies, they can become more wrapped up in the volume and hopeful quality of draft choices than what they see on the ice. Actual NHL players eventually become how many or how high a draft choice can we get for say Bozak, JVR, Polak, etc. no matter how important a role those players a playing on the roster now and into the future. No matter how old a player is if they are providing value to the Leafs they shouldn't be traded or what have you unless what you get back has any real chance of being as great a value or more.

 

Some of the most successful teams in the NHL have failed enormously when drafting. 

 

Let's look at Chicago from 2012 to 2003, ten years and just look at the 1st round.

 

2003(14) Seabrook

2004(3) Barker

2005(7) Skille

2006(3) Toews

2007(1) Kane

2008(11) Beach

2009(28) Olsen

2010(24) Hayes

2011(8) McNeill

2012(18) Teravainen

 

Of these choices I count 3 great players, 6 fails and one to be decided.

 

Detroit, now!

 

2003-None

2004-None

2005(19) Kindl

2006-None

2007(27) Brendan Smith

2008(30) McCollum

2009-None

2010(21) Sheahan

2011-None

2012-None

 

In 10 years Detroit only made 4 1st round draft choices, this is the same team that drafted Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and those choices resulted Cups, some of the greatest drafting ever seen in the NHL or possibly some of the greatest luck. Wonder why Detroit being so successful didn't hoard choices?

 

Out of the 14 1sts chosen, only 3 can be considered outstanding, 3 were marginal, 7 were wastes and one the jury is out on. This is the first round folks and on top of that, these 2 teams are considered the best drafting teams in the last 14 years, Detroit might be considered the best drafting team ever.

 

Trading roster players for draft choices is possibly the slowest way to build a winner. Trading roster players to fill greater needs is probably a far more efficient manner to build a winning team. Some junkies are still chocked over the idea TO traded a 1st and 2nd round choices for Anderssen? Do you wonder why, I do but I'm thinking draft choice junkies are hooked on the nearly lottery odds of succeeding. I expect in 5 years the junkies will look back to see how Anaheim did with those choices hoping, with tongues a wagging, that Anaheim did well as a told you so. We see it constantly with the Kessel trade.

 

The junkies are also expecting/desiring that TO have a horrible year this year to get the best choice possible even tho they've seen that collecting high draft choices, even #1s, isn't always a successful strategy, their rational TO will do better, why, cause. Cause? 

 

  

 

 

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On 1/21/2017 at 0:23 AM, hobie said:

I think a lot of Leaf fans have become draft choice junkies

 

You have to admit: it's the first time in history that the Leafs organization and Leafs fans have cared about draft picks. Toronto has always been a place for established NHL players to ride off into the sunset and retire to their cottages in northern Ontario, enjoying big money and low expectations as they finish off their 30's.

 

This is all new to Leafs fans. In time, the draft fetish will pass. :)

 

On 1/21/2017 at 0:23 AM, hobie said:

Trading roster players for draft choices is possibly the slowest way to build a winner. Trading roster players to fill greater needs is probably a far more efficient manner to build a winning team.

 

Unless you happen to land players like Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, McDavid, Matthews, etc.... 

 

The results speak for themselves. The Leafs won one draft lottery... and they got their franchise player. Matthews is already the best player on the team. It stands to reason that another top draft pick would become the 2nd best player on the team in the same time period. When you have a team that sucks, elite draft picks can come in and make an impact immediately. It's the whole reason why the NHL has the draft lottery set up this way. The Leafs have always been too stupid to take advantage of the system until now. 

 

The "veteran" players that the Leafs have are mostly spare parts. What do you consider worth saving? We just watched a line of rookies take over as the top line. In just 41 games, Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have surpassed Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc.

 

If it were up to me, I'd be trying to draft my top defensive unit so that I can say goodbye to some of the guys we have now. I have no doubt that a top first round draft pick defenceman could come in here and outclass Rielly, Gardiner, Polak, Hunwick, and company no problem. Before they become the next Lidstrom, Keith, Weber, Letang, or whoever (and we have to watch them get locked into as 12-year contract and dominate for another franchise) I'd rather they dominate in the blue and white. :)

 

 

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In order to draft  Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, McDavid, Matthews, etc....  you need to tank which isn't always successful due to the draft lottery that's now in place, for the McDavid draft Buffalo and Arizona finished the season below Edmonton who won the lottery.

 

For every Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, McDavid, Matthews, etc.... there are also RNH, Yakupov, E. Johnson, Fleury, Nash..... so even #1 overall draft choices aren't a sure thing.

 

This next draft is considered a poor draft.

 

Rielly, Gardiner, Polak, Hunwick, and company were shiny new draft picks at one time and Rielly was a high draft choice, arguably the best player from his draft class. That was a bad draft year perhaps as bad as the draft class this year.

 

Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have surpassed Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc. probably but at the same time if TO hopes to become successful TO will need to have Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc. so trading them away simply results in a situation where they need to be replaced. TO with  Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc. plus Kessel and Phanny with  Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Zaitsev and Brown might be a legitimate playoff or even Cup contender. 

 

I felt for years that TO was close to being a true contender and simply needed a true FLC and #1 d-man and now that we have a FLC we are probably a Kessel and Phanny away from reaching that goal. We have more draft choices but due to the length of time it takes to draft and time it takes draft choices to mature we are probably many years from true contention. Relying on the draft mostly might mean we never reach true contention. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, hobie said:

In order to draft  Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, McDavid, Matthews, etc....  you need to tank which isn't always successful due to the draft lottery that's now in place, for the McDavid draft Buffalo and Arizona finished the season below Edmonton who won the lottery.

 

Correct. Last year the Leafs tanked (finally) and got rewarded with the #1 pick. Now that we did the tank thing, we still need to collect a few more picks in my opinion before we're ready to leap forward. The foundation needs to be completely set before building something substantial on it. It's tempting to start signing big contract players to fill in the gaps but we still need it to come from within. 

 

I think once the Leafs can make the playoffs with the existing cast (and any new draft picks that are added to the mix), then we can plug any remaining holes with trades, free agency, etc. :)

 

43 minutes ago, hobie said:

Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have surpassed Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc. probably but at the same time if TO hopes to become successful TO will need to have Kadri, Bozak, JVR, etc. so trading them away simply results in a situation where they need to be replaced.

 

I would only move a Kadri, Bozak, or JVR if it addresses the problem on defence. (Dealing from a position of strength to fill a need on the team.) You don't want to become a "top heavy" team like the Dallas Stars that have all the forwards in the world but absolutely no D. 

 

45 minutes ago, hobie said:

I felt for years that TO was close to being a true contender and simply needed a true FLC and #1 d-man

 

The problem before was that they tried to rush things. They didn't have a good foundation to build on and then overpaid to grab Kessel and Phaneuf. They basically maxed out (hitting the cap) and iced a very poor team. Those were horrible years. They couldn't get a #1 center or a #1 defenceman because they had already "blown their load" on marginal/bit players. In the cap era, it's not who you have that counts, it's how much you pay for them.  Having Kessel + Phaneuf for 50% of what the Leafs paid for them might have worked. :)

 

 

 

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I know it's difficult to remember but BB inherited a team that had the 4th best 2nd half record in the NHL the year before. It's record, the year before, was bad but that was because of a horrendous 1st half and more precisely a horrible first 20 games. BB was trying to improve what looked to be a decent team, he improved the d and improved the o, it was a optimistic time, he did what was necessary to improve the team and not being far from a surprise of Carolina winning the Cup anything was possible.

 

Hind sight is 20/20.

 

TO does need a true #1 d-man but a true #1 d-man is something that will need to be drafted otherwise we need to hope the d prospects in the system will in time make TO better. No team in the NHL is going to trade a true #1 d-man so trading say a JVR for another d-man could end up as simply a lateral, an incremental d improvement for an incremental o decrease.

 

BB might have been rushing things by getting Kessel and Phanny and that's something I will only admit because of 20/20 but I also think TO rushed things by trading away Kessel and Phanny. If you can't win because of a poor d then does it make sense to trade away your 1st or 2nd best d-man to make your team better, for the future perhaps but that's a large perhaps. TO's d isn't better because Phanny is gone, it's better because TO picked up Zaitsev and traded for Andersen. TO's d might even be playoff/Cup worthy if Phanny was still here. How much better would TO's offense be with Kessel.

 

I think the Shanaplan might have cost TO a realistic Cup opportunity by rushing to judgement, by clearing out high contracts no matter how useful the players.

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3 hours ago, hobie said:

I know it's difficult to remember but BB inherited a team that had the 4th best 2nd half record in the NHL the year before. It's record, the year before, was bad but that was because of a horrendous 1st half and more precisely a horrible first 20 games.

 

That was back during the "run to 9th" era. The Leafs would get crushed in October, November, December. Then they would start playing well (when nobody cared) and run themselves out of a good draft lottery pick to finish 9th. It was a mirage. They weren't a good team that got off to a bad start. They were a bad team that only won games when the season was lost and the pressure was off. They simply couldn't win when it mattered.

 

They did that for three or four consecutive years, same formula every time. Management refused to blow the team up, bottom out, and start over. It was sad to watch. :(

 

Then they entered the 18-wheeler era. Strong starts followed by epic collapses in December and January. Again, whenever the pressure was on, they folded.  (Do check out that video by the way... ;)  )

 

3 hours ago, hobie said:

TO does need a true #1 d-man but a true #1 d-man is something that will need to be drafted otherwise we need to hope the d prospects in the system will in time make TO better. 

 

Or perhaps the Leafs keep drafting top forwards until they have a glut of them, then they make a trade. Here's hoping they get this part right. :)

 

3 hours ago, hobie said:

TO's d might even be playoff/Cup worthy if Phanny was still here. How much better would TO's offense be with Kessel.

 

The loss of Phaneuf hasn't seemed to have any effect on the team. Kessel's offence has been easily replaced by Matthews, who is already a better player than Kessel. When I look back at those two guys, I don't feel the loss at all. :IDunnoSmiley:

 

 

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I think it's quite common for fans and even management to fall in love with players like could you imagine TO trading Marner for an upgrade in the d corp, I can't.

 

You might not be missing Phanny but I see that Ottawa is a very good d team and I suspect Ottawa feels he's a major part of it's success as he gets the 2nd most icetime on the team. I see many complaining TO has no jam on the d and that's a role Phanny has filled for years while also being TO's top minute d-man.

 

I think Kessel and Phanny have received the bulk of the blame for TO's failings over the years when that rancor should have been directed towards management.

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21 hours ago, hobie said:

could you imagine TO trading Marner for an upgrade in the d corp, I can't.

 

The only way that would fly is if the defenceman was someone of similar age and skill level to Marner. Otherwise, no chance. I can't see any team making a trade like that. 

 

21 hours ago, hobie said:

You might not be missing Phanny but I see that Ottawa is a very good d team and I suspect Ottawa feels he's a major part of it's success as he gets the 2nd most icetime on the team. I see many complaining TO has no jam on the d and that's a role Phanny has filled for years while also being TO's top minute d-man.

 

Phaneuf was a good hitter. I miss the bone crunching hits. I think he is an average defender. If he's playing in Toronto for half what he was being paid, he would probably still be here. The problem was the contract. Toronto overpaid to keep him. You have to dump that kind of money on a Karlsson, not a Phaneuf, in a salary cap league. That was the trouble. :(

 

21 hours ago, hobie said:

I think Kessel and Phanny have received the bulk of the blame for TO's failings over the years when that rancor should have been directed towards management.

 

I take every opportunity that I can to blame management for the Leafs failures. Shanahan & co are the first ones in recent memory that I can't find any fault with. Everything Shanahan does, he does better than anyone else. The guy should be the commissioner next when Bettman retires dies.  

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3 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

The only way that would fly is if the defenceman was someone of similar age and skill level to Marner. Otherwise, no chance. I can't see any team making a trade like that. 

 

 

Phaneuf was a good hitter. I miss the bone crunching hits. I think he is an average defender. If he's playing in Toronto for half what he was being paid, he would probably still be here. The problem was the contract. Toronto overpaid to keep him. You have to dump that kind of money on a Karlsson, not a Phaneuf, in a salary cap league. That was the trouble. :(

 

 

I take every opportunity that I can to blame management for the Leafs failures. Shanahan & co are the first ones in recent memory that I can't find any fault with. Everything Shanahan does, he does better than anyone else. The guy should be the commissioner next when Bettman retires dies.  

 

Hall/Larsson trade.

 

I think TO might have to overpay in more ways than we realize to get a true #1 d-man or as close to one as possible.

 

I think TO overpaid for Martin and he was TO's first UFA signing with term, not a warm and fuzzy for me.. TO will have a lot of cap space next year rather than the little amount they had this year so it's going to be interesting to see what they do with it.

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4 hours ago, hobie said:

 

Hall/Larsson trade.

 

I think TO might have to overpay in more ways than we realize to get a true #1 d-man or as close to one as possible.

 

I think TO overpaid for Martin and he was TO's first UFA signing with term, not a warm and fuzzy for me.. TO will have a lot of cap space next year rather than the little amount they had this year so it's going to be interesting to see what they do with it.

 

Teams realize how hard it is to find #1 defencemen...nobody wants to part with them. There's probably only a dozen true #1s in the entire league. So the only way to get one is draft and develop him yourself...or overpay. 

 

Marner is a great player, but as a Flyer fan I wouldn't trade Provorov for him. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that Provorov has more value to the Flyers than Marner would. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Teams realize how hard it is to find #1 defencemen...nobody wants to part with them. There's probably only a dozen true #1s in the entire league. So the only way to get one is draft and develop him yourself...or overpay. 

 

Marner is a great player, but as a Flyer fan I wouldn't trade Provorov for him. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that Provorov has more value to the Flyers than Marner would. 

 

 

 

I don't know enough about Provorov to say he would be a proper trade chip for Marner but essentially a #1 d-man is always worth more than pretty well any winger.

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5 hours ago, hobie said:

 

I don't know enough about Provorov to say he would be a proper trade chip for Marner but essentially a #1 d-man is always worth more than pretty well any winger.

 

As a 19 year old he's easily our best defenceman. That's not saying much but he certainly looks like he's well on his way to becoming a #1.

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14 hours ago, hobie said:

Hall/Larsson trade.

 

Seems to be working out well for Edmonton right now. They're in a playoff spot. The same can't be said of New Jersey. :)

 

14 hours ago, hobie said:

I think TO might have to overpay in more ways than we realize to get a true #1 d-man or as close to one as possible.

 

The other option (if we can't acquire or develop a true #1 guy) is to go quantity over quality. Have six average defencemen on the team. Nobody is extraordinary, but nobody is a weak link either. You could roll the three defensive lines out there as if they were identical. If that means having six defencemen on the team that are each making $4-5 mil per season, instead of one guy getting $10 mil, so be it. Many hands make light work. :)

 

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3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

As a 19 year old he's easily our best defenceman. That's not saying much but he certainly looks like he's well on his way to becoming a #1.

 

For the Leafs to part with a player as popular as Marner, the only way they could sell that to fans would be to get someone like that in return, which as you mentioned, the Flyers would never give up.

 

Even if a defenceman is worth more than a forward, the Leafs couldn't trade Marner for anything less than a #1 defenceman because the optics would be so horrible. :)

 

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1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Seems to be working out well for Edmonton right now. They're in a playoff spot. The same can't be said of New Jersey. :)

 

 

The other option (if we can't acquire or develop a true #1 guy) is to go quantity over quality. Have six average defencemen on the team. Nobody is extraordinary, but nobody is a weak link either. You could roll the three defensive lines out there as if they were identical. If that means having six defencemen on the team that are each making $4-5 mil per season, instead of one guy getting $10 mil, so be it. Many hands make light work. :)

 

 

It is working out for Edmonton mostly because of McDavid being healthy, NJ had a weak d before the trade. If I want to attract fans in a weak market while I'm rebuilding I would trade for a marquee player.

 

The problem with having 6 average d-men is that's not what Cup winning teams have had traditionally. Keith, Doughty, Letang, Lidstrom, etc. appears to be the quality that Cup winning teams need in order to win, 6 Gunnars ain't gonna do it. I'm hoping TO is rebuilding towards a Cup winner rather than constantly being playoff worthy.

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2 hours ago, hobie said:

The problem with having 6 average d-men is that's not what Cup winning teams have had traditionally. Keith, Doughty, Letang, Lidstrom, etc. appears to be the quality that Cup winning teams need in order to win, 6 Gunnars ain't gonna do it.

 

I dunno. Remember the long held belief that teams couldn't win the Stanley Cup without an elite #1 goalie? I think that one has since been proven to be incorrect.

 

If you have 6 guys back there that can play on any team's second line, and that don't have any glaring weaknesses, maybe it would be enough to hold the fort while the forwards just overwhelm the other team. For teams that pour all their cap space into one mega top defensive unit, they usually have a mediocre second unit and a weak third unit. That can be exploited by rolling two or three elite forward lines. Can't defend them all.  Or something to that effect. :IDunnoSmiley:

 

3 hours ago, hobie said:

I'm hoping TO is rebuilding towards a Cup winner rather than constantly being playoff worthy.

 

Agreed. :)

 

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9 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I dunno. Remember the long held belief that teams couldn't win the Stanley Cup without an elite #1 goalie? I think that one has since been proven to be incorrect.

 

If you have 6 guys back there that can play on any team's second line, and that don't have any glaring weaknesses, maybe it would be enough to hold the fort while the forwards just overwhelm the other team. For teams that pour all their cap space into one mega top defensive unit, they usually have a mediocre second unit and a weak third unit. That can be exploited by rolling two or three elite forward lines. Can't defend them all.  Or something to that effect. :IDunnoSmiley:

 

 

Agreed. :)

 

 

The only team in recent memory who won a cup without top notch goaltending was when Chicago beat a Flyer team with lousier goaltending. 

 

 The Pens kept losing partially cause Fleury couldn't get it done since the first cup in Crosby era. Murray did. Crawford has proven to be a money goalie. Quick was great in the Kings cup runs (Conn Smythe). Thomas with the Bruins (Conn Smythe)  Osgood played great for Detroit when it mattered. As did Giguerre and Ward for the Ducks and Canes. The Bulin wall, Brodeur, Roy...Niemi is the only mediocre goalie to win a cup in recent memory.

 

 As for getting SIX defencemen that can play on any teams 2nd pairing...good luck with that. You've got about as much chance of assembling that as you do 3 elite forward lines. If you think paying a #1 defenceman is costly, what do you think 9 elite forwards would take?

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4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

The only team in recent memory who won a cup without top notch goaltending was when Chicago beat a Flyer team with lousier goaltending. 

 

Alright, #1 elite goalie it is. :biggrin:

 

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 As for getting SIX defencemen that can play on any teams 2nd pairing...good luck with that. You've got about as much chance of assembling that as you do 3 elite forward lines. If you think paying a #1 defenceman is costly, what do you think 9 elite forwards would take?

 

We can secretly grab up all the second pairing defencemen in the league and drive up the market price for everyone else. :ph34r:

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/23/2017 at 7:02 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

The loss of Phaneuf hasn't seemed to have any effect on the team.

 

  Well, he's no longer get blown by like a living pylon. Some brutal backwards skating going on there. That is an effect. :)

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  • 1 month later...
On 1/25/2017 at 6:18 AM, flyercanuck said:

 

Teams realize how hard it is to find #1 defencemen...nobody wants to part with them. There's probably only a dozen true #1s in the entire league. So the only way to get one is draft and develop him yourself...or overpay. 

 

Marner is a great player, but as a Flyer fan I wouldn't trade Provorov for him. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just that Provorov has more value to the Flyers than Marner would. 

 

 

 

 

 

  Having a real good read on both these players, I make that deal. Marner, at the minimum is gonna be a 90 pt forward, not many of those in this league. Yes, Provs WILL be a great #1 d man, projecting forward a bit...BUT the Flyers have depth in Myers and Sanheim, to a LEAST try and replace Provs. Marner is one of the elite skaters in this league, you can't teach it, you have it or you don't.....and his offensive skills are off the charts. I do that trade, begrudgingly, but still do it. 

 

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The way I see it, there are 3 waves to this Leaf team building.

 

Phase 1

There was the trade for Gardiner, drafting of Riley, drafting of Kadri, trade for JVR

 

Phase 2

Tanking phase, drafting Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Brown, etc....Shanny smartly decided this phase was done when he signed Andersson in the nets.

 

Phase 3

This includes any FA, trades or drafting that goes on in the next 3 years. THIS phase will decide if the Leafs are very good or GREAT>

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The Leafs still need D to become a contending team. Those are the hardest (along with goalies) to draft and develop. Picking an Austen Mathews is about as hard as picking a Crosby or a McDavid...when you pick first THAT is who you take. Even an idiot picks those three.

 

Marner was a nice pick, but it was either him or Hanifan as far as the entire hockey world was concerned, it's not like they grabbed that talent in the 3rd round.

 

Grabbing defence while drafting as a playoff team will be Leaf managements toughest assignment.

 

As for Marner being a minimum 90 point forward...well, there's been a grand total of ONE 90 point forward since the 2013/14 season...Marner ain't that good. And the Flyers have NEVER drafted a defenceman like Provorov.

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