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radoran    4,752
1 minute ago, hobie said:

 

This you might find strange but the current prevailing wisdom is that players reach their peak between the ages of 23 and 25, and after 25 players start to decline and by the beginning of next year Zaitsev will be 26. The lesser the talent the more quickly/steeper the decline. This is one of the major reasons why teams don't have a lot 30ish experienced players, even on defense.

 

Of the top 10 scoring defensemen in the league, one is under 25 (Hamilton). Of the top 20 scoring defensemen, five are under 25 (Hamilton, Klingberg (24), Werenski (19), Ristolainen (22), Jones (22)).

 

There are three over 30 in the top 10 and four in the top 20.

 

The majority (11) are 25-30.

 

Generally, defensemen take longer to develop in the NHL and their window stays open a little longer than your typical forward (there are no 30+ aged players in the top 10 scoring forwards and four in the top 20).

 

Essentially, the Leafs are baking that Zaitsev's next five years are productive ones and the outlying two years you could very well be in a position where $4.5M isn't bad value.

 

As a fan of a team that has $16.525M invested for the next five years in two players who have scored more than 25 goals exactly twice between them, I again appreciate your concern about the length and term of the contract.

 

And I hope you're right. :cheers:

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hobie    102
1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

Of the top 10 scoring defensemen in the league, one is under 25 (Hamilton). Of the top 20 scoring defensemen, five are under 25 (Hamilton, Klingberg (24), Werenski (19), Ristolainen (22), Jones (22)).

 

There are three over 30 in the top 10 and four in the top 20.

 

The majority (11) are 25-30.

 

Generally, defensemen take longer to develop in the NHL and their window stays open a little longer than your typical forward (there are no 30+ aged players in the top 10 scoring forwards and four in the top 20).

 

Essentially, the Leafs are baking that Zaitsev's next five years are productive ones and the outlying two years you could very well be in a position where $4.5M isn't bad value.

 

As a fan of a team that has $16.525M invested for the next five years in two players who have scored more than 25 goals exactly twice between them, I again appreciate your concern about the length and term of the contract.

 

And I hope you're right. :cheers:

 

Yes, your research is probably true however I question the Good Old Boys contention that that's the way it is, the way it has always been and the way it will always be.

 

Coaches, GMs and the like are privy to far more info now than they were in the past like studies that suggest that hockey players are at their peaks between the ages of 23 or maybe earlier and 25. Most coaches know what practical results are optimal via such things as Corsi and Fenwick or whatever stats their own teams have but the coaches will invariably go with their own eye tests. 

 

RC once said that he's a coach and not a teacher, not a developer of players, he's paid to help his team win and his job is only safe when his team is winning,

 

If the prevailing wisdom is d-men need to be developed and not in the NHL then that generally means that young d-men will have to pass thru a specific rite of passage. I think this has been a ball and chain that young d-men have to contend with whether right or wrong, for some young d-men yes they need development or more specifically time but others are consigned to the A even tho lesser players are in the NHL all in the name of experience. This makes RC like coaches happy.

 

What are young d-men learning in the A, how to defend against A grade players which isn't necessarily optimal but for some reason essential in some organizations. 

 

Philly has Provorov and he's going to be a great one and his ability to be great earlier is going to best served by having him in the NHL sooner but this is only possible if Philly is prepared to watch him grow in the NHL. Also Philly could be like TO and keep players like Polak and Hunwick while the young d like Dermott and Neilsen play and develop in the A but are they developing into NHL players and is minimal value of the vets worth delaying what might be the inevitable, Dermott and Nielsen playing in the NHL.

 

I think Babs is a great coach and a great developer which is ideal for TO now. Last year Nylander was returned to the A to supposedly develop and this year he was still in need of direction and I suspect he developed and learned more in his first 20 games this year with Babs than the 80 plus games he spent in the A, he's always had the talent in spades. Babs actually wanted Nylander and Brown on TO last year from the beginning of the year, I'm talking 2015/2016.

 

Prevailing wisdom isn't always actual wisdom and I think NHL talent should be in the NHL, ASAP,  If teams are happy to delay players access to the NHL, specifically d-men, for whatever their reasons then yes d-men will not show their stuff earlier and it will artificially appear that they mature or enter their peak years later.

 

Yes I get a little long winded, can't help myself. 

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Edanl    7

In my opinion, Zaitsev is a good player and a good defenseman but as people here said I also think that he is overpaid. I also think that the contract that they signed him is too long.

 

In my opinion, Toronto should have signed him to 4 years contract with less money and with the rest of the money to spend somewhere else. But all the signing that Lou and Babcock did are great ones that will make the Leafs better so I guess they know what they are doing.

 

In my opinion, the contract is too long and too expensive but I trust the Management and Babcock. I just hope that he will play like last year and his production won't decline and he will continue to give the same production or even better.I hope that we won't get backfire with this contract.

 

Especially when Matthew\Nylander\Marner and also JVR contracts are expiring soon and we will need to give them long term contract and they deserve high price and long term contracts.

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BluPuk    358

I am beginning to really wonder what the plan is......... :(

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Edanl    7

I want to believe that there is a plan for these signing even if we don't see it now. In my opinion, it was too high and too long contract especially that the big three and JVR contracts will expire in the next seasons.

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    • 2
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      Teams need to stop giving players long term contracts. It's killing the league.   The way you handle a player like Zaitsev is as follows:   Offer a 2-year deal at something modest like 3.5 mil/yr. (A bridge/show-me type of contract.) If his camp balks at the offer, let him WALK AWAY. Jesus Chreest it's a BEAUTIFUL THING when someone walks away from an offer. That means you can wave the leftover money at someone else, and there's ALWAYS someone else that can replace a Zaitsev. He's an absolute nobody in the NHL.   The Leafs can't seem to properly monetize talent, and it's a systemic problem that has existed for decades. Matthews is an A+ player. He's a diamond. You keep those. Zaitsev is a pebble. He's a "C" level player. He's a "baseline". You can literally replace Zaitsev with any player on any other team and NOT SUFFER any loss in performance. If he walks away, you pick up someone else and plug the hole. If the KHL wants him, fine. Overpay for Zaitsev and have him. He doesn't move the needle for the Leafs (or hasn't so far).    
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      That's a lot of money and term based on 1 NHL season, how successful was his first season, alright I guess but not overwhelming tho. Let's hope this year wasn't his career year.   He's 25 and conventional wisdom is that 25 is the apex season for NHL players, he will be 26 in Oct. so TO has inked a player who is a diminishing asset to 7 years.   Lou did a lot of good things in NJ but one of his weaknesses was contracts both $ and term.
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