Zaitsev Signing

[hobie]

That's a lot of money and term based on 1 NHL season, how successful was his first season, alright I guess but not overwhelming tho. Let's hope this year wasn't his career year.

 

He's 25 and conventional wisdom is that 25 is the apex season for NHL players, he will be 26 in Oct. so TO has inked a player who is a diminishing asset to 7 years.

 

Lou did a lot of good things in NJ but one of his weaknesses was contracts both $ and term.

[flyercanuck]

25 is generally when defencemen are just starting to peak. Plus it was his first season in North America. He could get better.

 

 I don't think the $ is bad at all. 7 years is a looooong time though. There aren't many contracts that long that work out.

[hobie]

35 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

25 is generally when defencemen are just starting to peak. Plus it was his first season in North America. He could get better.

 

 I don't think the $ is bad at all. 7 years is a looooong time though. There aren't many contracts that long that work out.

 

if 25 is when players are just starting to peak then why are there so few 30 year olds? If they reach their apex at 27 or 28 we should assume that at 30 they would be as good as if not better than 25 year olds, no?

 

Peak years are 22 to 26, for d-men maybe but for forwards it's actually earlier more like 20 to 25 something that's being acknowledged more and more both scientifically and by most non desperate managements.

 

If the older player being better myth held any truth then LA should still be winning the Cup rather than struggling to almost make the playoffs.

[flyercanuck]

Defencemen, not players.

 

Blueliners generally take longer to develop than forwards. I'd say in todays game, forwards peak before they hit 30 for sure...but defence are usually hitting their prime around 30.

[hobie]

6 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Defencemen, not players.

 

Blueliners generally take longer to develop than forwards. I'd say in todays game, forwards peak before they hit 30 for sure...but defence are usually hitting their prime around 30.

 

Then why are there so few 30 year old d-men in the NHL, if this was right you'd think there would be more 30 and above d-men.

 

It's not right as only stars or exceptional players last past 30 because they like the less talented no longer over 30 NHL players are well past their prime and at 30 or before have been declining noticeably for years.

 

There are many reasons for the decline but by 30 most players aren't NHL relevant which includes d-men.  TO's d isn't a good one because the 30 year olds aren't good and were never exceptional and Marincin and Carrick in their peaks at 23 and 25 aren't good enough. Rather than wait out and hope Carrick is going to improve TO will probably graduate Dermott a 20 year old.

 

If a player isn't NHL capable, at their peak, by 23 in any position then it's extremely unlikely they will ever be. The only exception to this I can think of might be goalie. Of course there's always exceptions but exceptions are exceptions not the rule.Chara is an exception. 

[flyercanuck]

Brent Burns was the top scoring defenceman in the league...32

Duncan Keith was 5th ...33

Byfuglien was 6th ....32

 

[hobie]

8 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Brent Burns was the top scoring defenceman in the league...32

Duncan Keith was 5th ...33

Byfuglien was 6th ....32

 

 

Exceptional players can be productive later in their careers but average types like Zaitsev are or should be retired in their 30s.

 

Keith and Byfug are declining, and Burns is a puzzler.

[flyercanuck]

Hey, you got a top 4 defenceman without using a draft pick on him. You could let him go back to Russia, or pay him a little longer than you'd like. The Leafs aren't going to be picking top 5 again anytime soon, so drafting good players is going to be a lot tougher than it was with Mathews/Marner/Nylander. Again, I don't think he's way overpaid, it's just a little long on term. 

[hobie]

7 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Hey, you got a top 4 defenceman without using a draft pick on him. You could let him go back to Russia, or pay him a little longer than you'd like. The Leafs aren't going to be picking top 5 again anytime soon, so drafting good players is going to be a lot tougher than it was with Mathews/Marner/Nylander. Again, I don't think he's way overpaid, it's just a little long on term. 

 

On a weak defensive team Zaitsev is top 4 but is he on a better d team, TO had other issues than Zaitsev but it was still a weak d team and teams that are weak defensively are usually so because of their top 3 or 4.

 

In a cap world it's not a team's ability to spend money that makes them good or better, it's who they spend it on, how much and for how long. 

[BluPuk]

The issue I have with Zaitsev is that he's not real good at any part of the game. He is OK at defending and OK at passing and shooting. Just OK. I know I'm no spring chicken so maybe $4.5 M per year is considered just OK now? However I do know that 7 years is a looong time in anybody's books. Then again, I was wrong about Andersen....

[WordsOfWisdom]

17 hours ago, hobie said:

That's a lot of money and term based on 1 NHL season, how successful was his first season, alright I guess but not overwhelming tho. Let's hope this year wasn't his career year.

 

He's 25 and conventional wisdom is that 25 is the apex season for NHL players, he will be 26 in Oct. so TO has inked a player who is a diminishing asset to 7 years.

 

Lou did a lot of good things in NJ but one of his weaknesses was contracts both $ and term.

 

What the ??????    They signed him for 7 years after going -25 (or whatever he was)???  Now I've officially lost confidence in the Shanaplan. They're going to f__k this up again like they always do. Instead of getting a real defenceman, we're stuck with Zaitsev for 7 more years. Well technically he'll be here for 3 more years before the Leafs buy out the rest of his contract and send him to another team for free. What in the blue h__ll is the rationale behind signing this guy for 7 years? Has anyone heard of a @%$^&%# 2-year contract any more???  

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

15 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Hey, you got a top 4 defenceman without using a draft pick on him. You could let him go back to Russia, or pay him a little longer than you'd like. The Leafs aren't going to be picking top 5 again anytime soon, so drafting good players is going to be a lot tougher than it was with Mathews/Marner/Nylander. Again, I don't think he's way overpaid, it's just a little long on term. 

 

 

I can see this being where Ghost gets a new contract which is ok. Except i would like to see him sign a 5 year deal than 7.

 

Ivan i would have zero problem giving a max deal to. Ghost 4-5 years tops.

[hobie]

Why did the Maple Leafs sign a 25-year-old rookie defenceman until 2024?

 

Quote

The problem with defining Zaitsev a No. 4 D is his cap hit is beyond that at this point. At the moment, $4.5-million ranks 53rd in the league (tied with Beauchemin), which is on the edge of the “top pairing D” range. Some more D will get new contracts and bump him down a little, but he’s going to be one of the 60 highest paid blueliners in the NHL next season.

 

They also firmly believe Zaitsev can get better, bucking the trend of D declining into their mid-20s. Your mileage may vary on that.

 

“Why would the Leafs give a seven-year deal to a good but outside-the-core player just as they enter into an era when free agents will find Toronto very attractive, seemingly limiting their later options for no good reason?” they said. “Zaitsev presumably would have accepted a shorter deal. There seems no logical/strategic/analytical basis for the deal.”

 

https://theathletic.com/57670/2017/05/02/mirtle-why-did-the-maple-leafs-sign-a-25-year-old-rookie-defenceman-until-2024/

 

 

TO might have turned a free wallet into an anchor, I hope I'm wrong.

[hobie]

Nikita Zaitsev was offered a big contract in Russia: report

 

Quote

A report out of Russia today says that Toronto Maple Leafs defender Nikita Zaitsev, recently signed to a seven-year contract, was offered a very lucrative, yet short term deal in the KHL.

 

The report from allhockey.ru says that Moscow CSKA, his most recent club in the KHL, offered Zaitsev 700 million rubles for two years. That is nearly US$12 million.

A Swedish story on this report makes the point that with the lower taxes in Russia than in Canada, Zaitsev could have effectively earned up to two thirds of his full seven-year deal in just two years in Russia.

 

If this proposed contract was for this large amount, then it does seem that the security of the term offered by the Leafs was the deciding factor for him, and we know now what the Leafs had to outbid to keep him.

 

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/5/4/15550404/toronto-maple-leafs-nikita-zaitsev-was-offered-a-big-contract-in-russia-report

 

TO signed Phanny and Kessel to long term expensive contracts because they thought other teams would have offered them the same, offered Clarkson the same to outbid other teams, I'm sensing a recurring problem here, long term expensive contracts and TO hasn't worked out so far so why not continue to follow that same path.

 

One of the things I liked about BB was that he wouldn't sign players beyond 5 years.

[WordsOfWisdom]

Teams need to stop giving players long term contracts. It's killing the league.

 

The way you handle a player like Zaitsev is as follows:

 

Offer a 2-year deal at something modest like 3.5 mil/yr. (A bridge/show-me type of contract.) If his camp balks at the offer, let him WALK AWAY. Jesus Chreest it's a BEAUTIFUL THING when someone walks away from an offer. That means you can wave the leftover money at someone else, and there's ALWAYS someone else that can replace a Zaitsev. He's an absolute nobody in the NHL.

 

The Leafs can't seem to properly monetize talent, and it's a systemic problem that has existed for decades. Matthews is an A+ player. He's a diamond. You keep those. Zaitsev is a pebble. He's a "C" level player. He's a "baseline". You can literally replace Zaitsev with any player on any other team and NOT SUFFER any loss in performance. If he walks away, you pick up someone else and plug the hole. If the KHL wants him, fine. Overpay for Zaitsev and have him. He doesn't move the needle for the Leafs (or hasn't so far).

 

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Teams need to stop giving players long term contracts. It's killing the league.

 

The way you handle a player like Zaitsev is as follows:

 

Offer a 2-year deal at something modest like 3.5 mil/yr. (A bridge/show-me type of contract.) If his camp balks at the offer, let him WALK AWAY. Jesus Chreest it's a BEAUTIFUL THING when someone walks away from an offer. That means you can wave the leftover money at someone else, and there's ALWAYS someone else that can replace a Zaitsev. He's an absolute nobody in the NHL.

 

The Leafs can't seem to properly monetize talent, and it's a systemic problem that has existed for decades. Matthews is an A+ player. He's a diamond. You keep those. Zaitsev is a pebble. He's a "C" level player. He's a "baseline". You can literally replace Zaitsev with any player on any other team and NOT SUFFER any loss in performance. If he walks away, you pick up someone else and plug the hole. If the KHL wants him, fine. Overpay for Zaitsev and have him. He doesn't move the needle for the Leafs (or hasn't so far).

 

 

Team's won't stop doing it. Players tend to go for Security and term over Big bucks early. GM's know this and will not stop offering if they think they can swing the player over.

 

For the record, Zaitsev was pretty damn good his first campaign. He would make top 4 on a lot of teams and the going rate for a top 4 Dman is 4.5 to 5.5 million dollars. if he plays exactly at this level he is worth that contract. if he improves at all its  great value.

[hobie]

9 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Team's won't stop doing it. Players tend to go for Security and term over Big bucks early. GM's know this and will not stop offering if they think they can swing the player over.

 

For the record, Zaitsev was pretty damn good his first campaign. He would make top 4 on a lot of teams and the going rate for a top 4 Dman is 4.5 to 5.5 million dollars. if he plays exactly at this level he is worth that contract. if he improves at all its  great value.

 

And if this was his career year TO has another anchor.

Sign players for what they're worth.

Most teams have between 2 and 3 d-men making 4 mil. or more and 1 of those are usually a proper #1, TO now has 3 making more than 4 and is still looking for a #1.

If a team settles on mediocre players then that team will usually end up mediocre, it's how the money is spent  that will dictate TO's eventual success.

[WordsOfWisdom]

6 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Team's won't stop doing it. Players tend to go for Security and term over Big bucks early. GM's know this and will not stop offering if they think they can swing the player over.

 

I agree. It's just proof that with or without a salary cap, GMs will find ways to cause problems for themselves. These overly long contracts are putting teams in a position where they experience roster paralysis.

 

6 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

For the record, Zaitsev was pretty damn good his first campaign. He would make top 4 on a lot of teams and the going rate for a top 4 Dman is 4.5 to 5.5 million dollars. if he plays exactly at this level he is worth that contract. if he improves at all its  great value.

 

I'm unconvinced as of yet. My take on Zaitsev is that he started very well but finished on a sour note. Almost as though teams "figured him out" and were able to treat him like a pylon down the stretch and into the playoffs. That's very concerning given the contract he just signed.

 

I'm concerned that the Leafs "blew their wad" on Zaitsev and won't have cap space when it counts (to sign the Matthews, Marners, and Nylanders of the world).

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

8 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I agree. It's just proof that with or without a salary cap, GMs will find ways to cause problems for themselves. These overly long contracts are putting teams in a position where they experience roster paralysis.

 

 

I'm unconvinced as of yet. My take on Zaitsev is that he started very well but finished on a sour note. Almost as though teams "figured him out" and were able to treat him like a pylon down the stretch and into the playoffs. That's very concerning given the contract he just signed.

 

I'm concerned that the Leafs "blew their wad" on Zaitsev and won't have cap space when it counts (to sign the Matthews, Marners, and Nylanders of the world).

 

I'm puzzled. Granted I have only seen 10 games or so with him, but this contract is below value and good. My leaf fan friends agree. And I went over to the leaf forum to peruse what they think and the majority is happy with this steal of a deal.

 

Yall are the Only people I see concerned with it

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

I'm puzzled. Granted I have only seen 10 games or so with him, but this contract is below value and good. My leaf fan friends agree. And I went over to the leaf forum to peruse what they think and the majority is happy with this steal of a deal.

 

Yall are the Only people I see concerned with it

 

 

I don't like the term or the dollars, but especially not the term. I just don't think he's earned it. It's too soon for that kind of deal.

 

[hobie]

5 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

I'm puzzled. Granted I have only seen 10 games or so with him, but this contract is below value and good. My leaf fan friends agree. And I went over to the leaf forum to peruse what they think and the majority is happy with this steal of a deal.

 

Yall are the Only people I see concerned with it

 

 

It's a desperation move which is never the right motivation to sign a player. His record outside of his offense hasn't been great and we've only seen him play for 1 year so less than stellar year is the grounds to sign a player for top 3 or top 2 dollars. Who gives 1st year players 7 year contracts that goes till he's 33. Our last 7 and 8 year contract players signed in the last 3 years aren't with the team and those contracts meant TO didn't get full value for them in any way.

 

Was this a career year?

 

Sign stars or better to long term contracts not unproven flash in the pans, possibly.

 

We still need a #1 and now have less $s to spend on one, we're building an expensive mediocre d rather than finding upgrades. 

 

Zaitsev is now the 29th most expensive d-man in the NHL so he's being paid like he's a #2 but then so are Rielly and Gardiner. 

 

This is another classic case of TO throwing money at a problem and hoping magically it will go away. 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, hobie said:

 

It's a desperation move which is never the right motivation to sign a player. His record outside of his offense hasn't been great and we've only seen him play for 1 year so less than stellar year is the grounds to sign a player for top 3 or top 2 dollars. Who gives 1st year players 7 year contracts that goes till he's 33. Our last 7 and 8 year contract players signed in the last 3 years aren't with the team and those contracts meant TO didn't get full value for them in any way.

 

Was this a career year?

 

Sign stars or better to long term contracts not unproven flash in the pans, possibly.

 

We still need a #1 and now have less $s to spend on one, we're building an expensive mediocre d rather than finding upgrades. 

 

Zaitsev is now the 29th most expensive d-man in the NHL so he's being paid like he's a #2 but then so are Rielly and Gardiner. 

 

This is another classic case of TO throwing money at a problem and hoping magically it will go away. 

 

When I look at capfriendly, he slots in at 55 among defensemen

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2018/caphit/all/defense

 

He's being paid like a Top 4 guy - and he likely is a Top 4 guy.

 

Other guys who are pending FAs: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/defense

 

There aren't a lot of defensemen in their mid-20s who are legit Top 4 players who are going to go for less than what Zaitsev just got. What do you think a Dmitry Orlov or a Justin Schultz is going to get? Even as RFAs? What do you think the Flyers will have to pay Gotstobehere?

 

I completely understand your worry in this situation. Given the Flyers' experience with MacDonald, I am extremely wary of long contracts at big cap hits. But $4.5M really isn't a "big cap hit" in the league anymore (especially for a Top 4 defenseman) and Zaitsev has at least done something that MacDonald never did before signing his 6Y/$30M ($5M cap hit) deal - scored 30+ points. And MacDonald still hasn't even come close to 30.

 

If nothing else, you've got the benefit of three Top 4 guy signed for at least the next two years and two signed for at least the next five.

 

The sky is far from falling.

[hobie]

9 hours ago, radoran said:

 

When I look at capfriendly, he slots in at 55 among defensemen

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2018/caphit/all/defense

 

He's being paid like a Top 4 guy - and he likely is a Top 4 guy.

 

Other guys who are pending FAs: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/defense

 

There aren't a lot of defensemen in their mid-20s who are legit Top 4 players who are going to go for less than what Zaitsev just got. What do you think a Dmitry Orlov or a Justin Schultz is going to get? Even as RFAs? What do you think the Flyers will have to pay Gotstobehere?

 

I completely understand your worry in this situation. Given the Flyers' experience with MacDonald, I am extremely wary of long contracts at big cap hits. But $4.5M really isn't a "big cap hit" in the league anymore (especially for a Top 4 defenseman) and Zaitsev has at least done something that MacDonald never did before signing his 6Y/$30M ($5M cap hit) deal - scored 30+ points. And MacDonald still hasn't even come close to 30.

 

If nothing else, you've got the benefit of three Top 4 guy signed for at least the next two years and two signed for at least the next five.

 

The sky is far from falling.

 

I've bolded the part that isn't conclusive and he's being paid like a top 2.

 

I don't know what those other guys are worth or more precisely what they're going to get but at least they have a history to base that decision on.

[radoran]

9 hours ago, hobie said:

 

I've bolded the part that isn't conclusive and he's being paid like a top 2.

 

I don't know what those other guys are worth or more precisely what they're going to get but at least they have a history to base that decision on.

 

What you look at in these long term situations is that a player may be on the high side of his pay grade at the start of the deal and you hope that by the end he's a relative bargain.

 

Zaitsev was the 39th scoring defenseman in the league last season and all of 14 players ahead of him made less than $4.5M. Three of those were on entry level deals.

 

Again, I completely understand your reservations and they are not outlandish. But Zaitsev isn't a babe in the woods at 25 and there are 7 seasons in the KHL to consider.

 

As a Flyer fan, of course, I hope you're right

[hobie]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

What you look at in these long term situations is that a player may be on the high side of his pay grade at the start of the deal and you hope that by the end he's a relative bargain.

 

Zaitsev was the 39th scoring defenseman in the league last season and all of 14 players ahead of him made less than $4.5M. Three of those were on entry level deals.

 

Again, I completely understand your reservations and they are not outlandish. But Zaitsev isn't a babe in the woods at 25 and there are 7 seasons in the KHL to consider.

 

As a Flyer fan, of course, I hope you're right

 

This you might find strange but the current prevailing wisdom is that players reach their peak between the ages of 23 and 25, and after 25 players start to decline and by the beginning of next year Zaitsev will be 26. The lesser the talent the more quickly/steeper the decline. This is one of the major reasons why teams don't have a lot 30ish experienced players, even on defense.

 

At 26 Zaitsev isn't a bad player but he's not a #2 like he's paid and last year very well could be his last peak harrah year or a career year. Many a contract in the past have been based on career years and rarely do they work out. I'm hopeful he provides value and would've been more comfortable with a larger sample size and a shorter contract.