Preds and the Expansion Draft

[Honest Bender]

Just over one week away from the expansion draft results which will be announced during the NHL Awards Show. So who will Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee select from the Nashville Predators? Let's find out! 

 

First we will look at things from David Poile's perspective. The Predators have one of, if not the best top-4 defenseman group in the NHL, and basically nothing else beyond those four, so it's a given that the Predators will opt for the 4-4-1 protection option. This means they will protect four forwards, four defensemen and one goaltender. Working from the net out this give us...

 

G - Pekka Rinne: With a NMC, Pekka is required to be protected and Juuse Saros is exempt. This will expose only Marek Mazanec(rfa) who was not very good in limited backup duty for the Predators and was sent to Milwaukee for good midway through the season. There's no reason to think Vegas has Mazanec anywhere on their radar.

 

D - Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm: The top-4 will be protected, as good as they are it would be stupid to lose one for nothing, and it would create a hole in the second pairing that would be costly to fill. This will expose Matt Irwin, Anthony Bitetto, and Petter Granberg. Certainly Vegas will steer clear of these defenders who top out as 6/7 type players.

 

W - Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson(rfa) and James Neal will take three of the four protected forward slots, while Kevin Fiala is exempt. This will expose Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Pontus Aberg, Miikka Salomaki and Cody McLeod. A year ago, it looked like Vegas would for sure be choosing between Smith and Wilson. Both of those players had down seasons and spent time on IR during the playoffs. Meanwhile Aberg emerged in Milwaukee as a goal scoring threat and played very well in the playoffs, scoring a highlight reel goal in the Stanley Cup Final. Being young and showing more potential that Smith or Wilson, Aberg may have just played himself onto the Vegas Golden Knights.

 

C - Ryan Johansen is the only center who will be protected, while Frederick Gaudreau, Vladislav Kamenev and Victor Ejdsell are exempt. This gives McPhee a choice between Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok is on a great long-term contract, he is young and a decent two-way player in a bottom-six role. Sissons is similar, though he showed the ability to play higher in the lineup when injuries hit the team in the playoffs. 

 

So the reality of the situation is that McPhee likely has five players to consider when choosing from the Predators. Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Pontus Aberg, Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok. They're all useful players that Vegas fans should be happy to have. If I were GMGM, I'd pass on Smith and Wilson. While they have the ability to score 20 goals, they're both at their peak or declining, we know what they are and that is players who are better suited to a third scoring line and closer to 15 goals than 25. Jarnkrok has value because of his penalty killing ability, but he was badly out-muscled through much of the playoffs and isn't much of a scorer. Meanwhile the emergence of Sissons and Aberg probably has McPhee looking at one of the young guys who showed high level ability with room to grow. 

 

Prediction: Pontus Aberg. 

 

With 25 goals in Milwaukee last year, a great motor, a nose for the net and plenty of room to improve, Aberg is a guy who could skate effectively on a second line right now for Vegas. He's a very similar player to Viktor Arvidsson both in style and career arc, and we all saw what how Arvidsson busted out for 31 goals and 61 points this season. Unless Poile make another stunning trade to send Ekholm away, Pontus Aberg should be heading to Las Vegas. It's a blow to the Predators, but one which they can deal with better than losing any of the more established players chosen for protection.

[OccamsRazor]

10 hours ago, Honest Bender said:

Just over one week away from the expansion draft results which will be announced during the NHL Awards Show. So who will Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee select from the Nashville Predators? Let's find out! 

 

First we will look at things from David Poile's perspective. The Predators have one of, if not the best top-4 defenseman group in the NHL, and basically nothing else beyond those four, so it's a given that the Predators will opt for the 4-4-1 protection option. This means they will protect four forwards, four defensemen and one goaltender. Working from the net out this give us...

 

G - Pekka Rinne: With a NMC, Pekka is required to be protected and Juuse Saros is exempt. This will expose only Marek Mazanec(rfa) who was not very good in limited backup duty for the Predators and was sent to Milwaukee for good midway through the season. There's no reason to think Vegas has Mazanec anywhere on their radar.

 

D - Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm: The top-4 will be protected, as good as they are it would be stupid to lose one for nothing, and it would create a hole in the second pairing that would be costly to fill. This will expose Matt Irwin, Anthony Bitetto, and Petter Granberg. Certainly Vegas will steer clear of these defenders who top out as 6/7 type players.

 

W - Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson(rfa) and James Neal will take three of the four protected forward slots, while Kevin Fiala is exempt. This will expose Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Pontus Aberg, Miikka Salomaki and Cody McLeod. A year ago, it looked like Vegas would for sure be choosing between Smith and Wilson. Both of those players had down seasons and spent time on IR during the playoffs. Meanwhile Aberg emerged in Milwaukee as a goal scoring threat and played very well in the playoffs, scoring a highlight reel goal in the Stanley Cup Final. Being young and showing more potential that Smith or Wilson, Aberg may have just played himself onto the Vegas Golden Knights.

 

C - Ryan Johansen is the only center who will be protected, while Frederick Gaudreau, Vladislav Kamenev and Victor Ejdsell are exempt. This gives McPhee a choice between Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok is on a great long-term contract, he is young and a decent two-way player in a bottom-six role. Sissons is similar, though he showed the ability to play higher in the lineup when injuries hit the team in the playoffs. 

 

So the reality of the situation is that McPhee likely has five players to consider when choosing from the Predators. Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Pontus Aberg, Colton Sissons and Calle Jarnkrok. They're all useful players that Vegas fans should be happy to have. If I were GMGM, I'd pass on Smith and Wilson. While they have the ability to score 20 goals, they're both at their peak or declining, we know what they are and that is players who are better suited to a third scoring line and closer to 15 goals than 25. Jarnkrok has value because of his penalty killing ability, but he was badly out-muscled through much of the playoffs and isn't much of a scorer. Meanwhile the emergence of Sissons and Aberg probably has McPhee looking at one of the young guys who showed high level ability with room to grow. 

 

Prediction: Pontus Aberg. 

 

With 25 goals in Milwaukee last year, a great motor, a nose for the net and plenty of room to improve, Aberg is a guy who could skate effectively on a second line right now for Vegas. He's a very similar player to Viktor Arvidsson both in style and career arc, and we all saw what how Arvidsson busted out for 31 goals and 61 points this season. Unless Poile make another stunning trade to send Ekholm away, Pontus Aberg should be heading to Las Vegas. It's a blow to the Predators, but one which they can deal with better than losing any of the more established players chosen for protection.

 

Great write up. Welcome to the site good to have Preds fans here.

 

I have to agree with Aberg.

 

My 2nd choice would be Sissions.

 

So they can go wrong with either choice.

[Honest Bender]

 Wrinkle in the prediction plans. Preds beat writer Adam Vignan is saying the Poile has chosen to protect Calle Jarnkrok while exposing James Neal.

[yave1964]

37 minutes ago, Honest Bender said:

 Wrinkle in the prediction plans. Preds beat writer Adam Vignan is saying the Poile has chosen to protect Calle Jarnkrok while exposing James Neal.

I have read several sources already saying that Neal is the pick but salary wise, there are still a lot of variables. Aberg may still be the pick, depending upon where they wind up cap wise.

 

Rumors a week ago were that Neal was in Jim Nill and the Dallas Stars sites and it is possible of course that a) the Knights draft Neal and flip him to Dallas or b) if he is not chosen Neal is dealt to Dallas after the draft. With a wonderful deep postseason run behind them players are gonna want raises and a forward like Neal is usually the first to go.

[Honest Bender]

And of course the pick is Neal. Some things that Poile said about Neal and the pick...

 

- It was a financial decision to protect Jarnkrok over Neal. Calle's contract is favorable and he's a young, improving player. 

 

- He tried to make a deal with McPhee but the price was too high.

 

- He hadn't talked to Neal about the next contract yet. Which is a moot point now.

 

- Knows that he needs to add two forwards this summer. 

[hf101]

McPhee is in perfect position to dangle Neal at the trade-deadline.  I think both GM's made the right decision.  

[Buffalo Rick]

On 6/22/2017 at 8:27 AM, hf101 said:

McPhee is in perfect position to dangle Neal at the trade-deadline.  I think both GM's made the right decision.  

We will see. This could very well come back to haunt Nashville.  It will be one source of finger pointing if they fall short of the conference finals again.  And in my book they are far from a lock to get there.  I believe everything fell their way.  They are not as good as St Louis on paper and now they will not be as good on the ice.  St Louis just got Schenn, and he will likely help them take the next step to the promised land. But when St Lois gets there, they will win.

[hf101]

5 minutes ago, Hockey Junkie said:

We will see. This could very well come back to haunt Nashville.  It will be one source of finger pointing if they fall short of the conference finals again.  And in my book they are far from a lock to get there.  I believe everything fell their way.  They are not as good as St Louis on paper and now they will not be as good on the ice.  St Louis just got Schenn, and he will likely help them take the next step to the promised land. But when St Lois gets there, they will win.

 

I agree there is no guarantee Nashville can return to the Finals, the central division has some pretty tough competition besides the Blues including the Blackhawks and Wild too.  I also think Dallas will make a comeback this season.

[Buffalo Rick]

8 minutes ago, hf101 said:

 

I agree there is no guarantee Nashville can return to the Finals, the central division has some pretty tough competition besides the Blues including the Blackhawks and Wild too.  I also think Dallas will make a comeback this season.

I agree Dallas will be far better. Maybe even a playoff team again, they do have Jamie Benn.  And now Hitch comes back.  A little surprised by that. I  know Chicago is still plenty good.  But likely not deep enough to return to their glory days.  I still believe the Blues are the most talented and if Teresenko plays to his ability, they could become unstoppable

[Honest Bender]

If Bishop stays healthy he's such a huge addition for the Stars. 

 

St. Louis added Schenn, and guys like Parayko and Edmundson got more great playoff experience. They're a hungry team who wants more. 

 

If the Preds don't fix the second line and Rinne has another inconsistent regular season, there's no guarantee that they make the playoffs next season.