A brutally honest look at the Red Wings drafts

[yave1964]

  A lot of pundits are ripping the Red Wings stating that we had the worst draft of anyone in spite of having 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. Too many reaches, too many safer picks on the board with too many projects taken. To a certain extent I agree but we did come out with:

 

a) A player pretty much universally ranked in the top ten who fits one of our biggest needs in the six foot five center Rasmussen

b) a massive hulking goaltender in Keith Petruzzelli who by pretty much all accounts was ranked one of the top three goalie prospects in the draft.

c) Size and bulk of defense which we desperately need throughout the organization.

 

  Not defending the draft, I would have went defense first, second and third but I get what the Wings did. The problem with the draft is not this year, it is the pretty much every draft since 2011. a look back:

 

2011: No first round pick, the Wings had 3 2nd rounders adding Jurco, Oullet and Sproul who have been a mixed bag at best. Nobody else from the draft class will ever be in the NHL save for Marchenko who was donated for free to the Leafs.

2012: Again no first took Martin Frk in the second who has proved to be a real AHL scorer but has done zilch at the big level. Athanasiou was a steal in the 4th round. Again, nobody else will ever be in the league.

2013: Anthony Mantha was taken in the first, Tyler Bertuzzi in the second two projects who will likely work out. Nobody else. 

2014: Dylan Larkin was a no brainer in the first but has been a mixed bag. Dominic Turgeon has been a it of a bust at the AHL he cannot score) and Axel Holmstrom is a kind of sort of maybe prospect but that is it.

2015: Svechnikov has a chance to be a special scorer, 30ish a year type. Saarijarvi is an itsy bitsy defenseman, one of many that we have. that is it.

2016: Dennis Cholowski is ahead of the curve in his progress as a defenseman and will be with the Griffins all year. Givani Smith is a potential bottom six agitating winger. Filip Hronek is another tiny defenseman.

 

So in six years not counting this one, 39 total draft picks we have:

 

Mantha, Larkin, Svechnikov, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi. Likely four NHL forwards with one (Svechnikov) shuffling back and forth between the big club and Grand Rapids.

 

Oullet as our 6th defenseman. 

 

Jurco, Jankrok and Marchenko gone to other organizations.

 

Cholowski, Smith, Holmstrom, Sproul, Saarijarvi and Hronek in grand Rapids.

 

That adds up to 15 players who either are or will be at some point in the NHL and 24 complete misses.a 42 percent ratio.

 

  Of the bunch as much as I love Larkin, AA and Mantha all have limitations and while there is room to row I am uncertain of how much. And in six years we have literally come up with one NHL defenseman thru the draft. Brutal.

 

  It is a thoroughly unimpressive haul and something has to give. Losing Yzerman and Jim nill and Bill Peters, excellent judges of talent to other organizations has hamstrung the team. We need to completely overhaul our scouting department. I do not have a problem with taking a chance, with taking a risk with a pick and drafting someone who you have heavily scouted because you think he is the guy, I do have a problem with taking someone such as Gustav Lindstrom with pick 38 when he literally was on not a single top 100 from any credible source. You want to say that you want Lindstrom and you go early with one of the third rounders, pick 79 or 83? fine but c'mon he left the announcers speechless and scrambling. He certainly would have been there forty picks later when we went again.

  and that is the Wings arrogance, we hear that Jurco is a youtube sensation with the way he flips the puck around on his stick but is not much thought of as a player, we draft him as our first choice that year. we need defense desperately and instead of Carlo or McAvoy or Liljegren we draft forwards. In our last twenty drafts, only Kindl and Brendan Smith were blueline first round picks not counting Cholowski last year.

 

  Wings arrogance in drafting has hurt the team.We need someone who understands drafting for need and drafting best available for that need to run things. 

[TheHockeytown]

On 6/27/2017 at 2:40 PM, yave1964 said:

Wings arrogance in drafting has hurt the team.We need someone who understands drafting for need and drafting best available for that need to run things. 

 

At this point I take leave from this site so much, I probably seem like a fair-weather fan

 

All jokes aside, I've been saying for about 2 years now that it's time to fire Holland (come home Stevie!). The guy doesn't know how to manage a cap-era team. And we boasted 10 picks in a draft that only left us being laughed at. I happened to be at work during the draft, so I was constantly checking my phone (sorry, managers!) for updates. I was waiting to see "Red Wings draft Timothy Liljegren with the 9th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft," but instead saw Rasmussen's name and was understandably confused.

 

I'm not going to be like others and totally trash the guy. He's a big dude and like you mentioned, fills a big need. Was it worth the risk over Liljegren (who I figured was going to Toronto after Detroit didn't take him, since Tippett and Vilardi were still up there)? Using common sense, we won't know for a while. As of right now though, I can't choose to acquiesce entirely. We desperately need help on the blue line. Trust me, I'd love to see Rasmussen grow to fill a guy like Zetterberg's shoes, but I'm concerned because all I can see is, 5 years from now, Liljegren thriving in Toronto and Rasmussen playing on the 3rd line or something. But I hope that's not the case.

 

Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the Wings are close to signing Trevor Daley, if not already done. 1 year, $1.5-2.5mil deal, trade chip at the deadline? Would be nice. But I expect a 2 year (or even worse, a 3 year) deal, and probably over $3mil, because it's Ken Holland.

 

And I said the same thing you did about Petruzzelli. Guy is huge! Next Ben Bishop? Hopefully a diamond pick for us regardless.

 

Anyway, needless to say, the state of our team right now is a nightmare, and I still believe Kenny is the problem.

 

... "Come Home Stevie" echoes through the foyer of a now nearly abandoned Joe Louis Arena ... and my head.

[yave1964]

On ‎6‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 5:35 PM, TheHockeytown said:

 

At this point I take leave from this site so much, I probably seem like a fair-weather fan

 

All jokes aside, I've been saying for about 2 years now that it's time to fire Holland (come home Stevie!). The guy doesn't know how to manage a cap-era team. And we boasted 10 picks in a draft that only left us being laughed at. I happened to be at work during the draft, so I was constantly checking my phone (sorry, managers!) for updates. I was waiting to see "Red Wings draft Timothy Liljegren with the 9th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft," but instead saw Rasmussen's name and was understandably confused.

 

I'm not going to be like others and totally trash the guy. He's a big dude and like you mentioned, fills a big need. Was it worth the risk over Liljegren (who I figured was going to Toronto after Detroit didn't take him, since Tippett and Vilardi were still up there)? Using common sense, we won't know for a while. As of right now though, I can't choose to acquiesce entirely. We desperately need help on the blue line. Trust me, I'd love to see Rasmussen grow to fill a guy like Zetterberg's shoes, but I'm concerned because all I can see is, 5 years from now, Liljegren thriving in Toronto and Rasmussen playing on the 3rd line or something. But I hope that's not the case.

 

Elliotte Friedman is reporting that the Wings are close to signing Trevor Daley, if not already done. 1 year, $1.5-2.5mil deal, trade chip at the deadline? Would be nice. But I expect a 2 year (or even worse, a 3 year) deal, and probably over $3mil, because it's Ken Holland.

 

And I said the same thing you did about Petruzzelli. Guy is huge! Next Ben Bishop? Hopefully a diamond pick for us regardless.

 

Anyway, needless to say, the state of our team right now is a nightmare, and I still believe Kenny is the problem.

 

... "Come Home Stevie" echoes through the foyer of a now nearly abandoned Joe Louis Arena ... and my head.

Come home Stevie, or Jim nill, or Hell, even bill Peters or Shanny or Babs or......

 

that is the problem, the braintrust has been lobotomized and every level of the organization from on the ice to drafting is paying the price. 

 

As for tomorrow, I here it is a mortal lock that Daley is coming aboard which is not a bad signing, he does not have that one thing that he does that grabs you but he does everything well. He can score a bit, play defense a bit, he hits but is a bit small. He can bounce up and down any pairing, kill penalties, play the power play. He is not a number one, he is a second pair professional d-man who is a jack of all trades kind of guy who we could certainly use. It allows us the chance to keep Cholowski, Saarjarvi and a few others down on the farm learning. If/when the wings fall from contention daley will probably fetch a 2nd rounder or so. Really a smart pickup. We have had a few black players, five minutes of the mediocre careers of Nathan Robinson and Mike Johnson and about ten games of Tony Mckegnie's great career but that is about it. I have often wondered in a city like Detroit why more minorities aren't pursued. 

 

  I am hoping that when musical chairs among the goalies tomorrow is done that someone takes Mrazek off of our hands. I was hoping for Vancouver but apparently they plan on running with the worst combo in recent memory, Markstrom and Anders Nilsson.

[SpikeDDS]

My $.02:

 

This is a systemic problem. Where we are now has been predictable. @yave1964and I have been saying so for years, with the loss of Jim Nill being a very significant loss.

 

The result has been a scouting/drafting system without definition. Ill-defined purpose. With the obvious exception of Larkin, it has been difficult to objectively look at what our team has needed and then look at any draft class and say our biggest need(s) has/have been met, or even substantially addressed.

 

And I'm going to modify something you said about Holland. I don't think his problem is managing in a cap world as much as it has been managing in a post-Nick-Lidstrom world. Setting aside the very wrong choice for Franzen which keeps on giving, while Nick was here, we were able to draft skilled, smaller European players, because we knew that Nick would be back there playing near-flawless defense. And we kept following that recipe "because it has worked for us." But it worked for us because we had Nick and others that we could rely upon in our zone. It was as if we thought Nick would play forever. Well, he didn't. But we never changed our strategy. Though we did go larger in size this draft, we didn't address the blue line when our biggest "bleed" was back there. We deferred the big bleed to take Rasmussen.

 

This is a top-down problem. Whereas in the past guys serving under Holland were able to help guide his decision-making, he does not appear able to negotiate a forward-thinking plan. His moves to address team needs appear reactionary, rather than predictive. He's waiting until we are bleeding badly rather than proactively addressing problems to avoid the bleed in the first place.

 

That doesn't mean that we have totally struck out. Martha, AA, Larkin. These were good picks, but NONE of them addressed what we now are saddled with, which is the hardest problem to solve--our D.

 

In short, I think Holland can be brilliant if he is guided towards making the proper deals and pickups to make. But he appears incapable of understanding what that is on his own. He either needs people with better foresight under him helping him steer the ship, or he has to wait until we are bleeding to make any kind of good love, like the Datsyuk Dump. See, there he had a clear mandate and was able to see an opportunity and work his deal. He had direction, and handled it with mastery.

 

But that was the exception in the wake of our talent-evaluation team breakup. I just don't think he understands how to manage a team when you have to build a defense in a cap-restricted league. He knew how to supply necessary talent AROUND Nick. But he doesn't know how to rebuild AFTER Nick.

 

And here we are. 

[yave1964]

@SpikeDDS

 

I understand that you do not simply plug a body in to replace a generational talent but the response when Lidstrom retired was appalling, the Wings literally did nothing. They bumped Kronwall up a line and plugged him in and added Commodore and ...... that is about it. Well we did get lucky and Dekeyser fell into our lap but it was several years before we finally added Green who has gotten long in the tooth. 

 Dont get me wrong, I enjoy having Larkin, Svechnikov and Mantha to root for, all first round picks who will hoepfully be around a long time but with Larkin looking lost as an NHL center last year it appears that all three will end up on the wing, the leagues easiest position to fill and one in which we already have Tatar, Abdelkader and Nyquist, So we not only have not filled our biggest need on defense but we have not filled our need at center. I am not unhappy with the addition of Rasmussen, I know a lot of folk are ripping the Wings for not drafting local boy Vilardi who slipped in the draft but he is a winger and passing on him was actually a smart move. At this point we simply cannot draft best available, we must draft to need. Signing Daley to the defense was a necessary move, three years might be a bit long but we need the stability.

  But in seven years we have drafted one NHL d-man Xavier Oullet. He is a six or a spot starting seven on his best day. We do have some decent NHL defensive prospects right now in the system but none are sure things or mortal locks.

  I look at the Ducks as the ideal organization when it comes to drafting,  they always seem to have a plan and know what they are doing. They lost Pronger and Niedermayer shortly before we lost Lidstrom and in the years since Lidstroms retirement they have drafted on defense:

 

Hampus Lindholm

Josh Manson

Shea Theodore

Cam Fowler

Brandon Montour

Jacob Larsson

 

Lindholm, Manson and Fowler make up the core of one of the elite defenses in the league while Theodore, Montour and Larsson are all blue chip prospects ready to hit the league right now.

 

  If you stopped there, said that was all they drafted that made it you would have to say it was a succesful bunch of drafting but no, they have drafted goalies and forwards too.

 

Goalies

John Gibson

Frederik Andersen

 

Forwards

Rikard Rackell

Nick ritchie

Ondrej Kase

William Karlsson

 

All established NHLers with upside.

 

  So essentially in the time when we drafted a handful of forwards and a bottom tier defenseman the Ducks rebuilt their defense and retooled through the draft while drafting in the bottom third every year, just like we did. Our scouting is horrible, our decision making seems to be throwing a dart and wherever it sticks is who we draft while the Ducks have a clue. They are always in the short list of teams who are cup contenders because of great drafting, smart trades (Kesler, Silfverberg, Eaves) and using free agency not to go for the home run but to add complimentary pieces. 

  I really do not see it getting better under Holland. If everything breaks right we may be a bottom tier playoff contender but it takes a lot breaking right. He could not even trade Mrazek or Howard and the goalie musical chair game is over unless the Isles decide that Greiss is not the answer and every sign points to them starting the year with him in goal. So we cannot draft, we cannot trade, we overpay and over term for our own players  and free agents do not flock here like they used to.,

 

my .02 back atcha. 

[ruxpin]

On 6/30/2017 at 8:29 PM, yave1964 said:

Come home Stevie, or Jim nill, or Hell, even bill Peters or Shanny or Babs or......

 

that is the problem, the braintrust has been lobotomized and every level of the organization from on the ice to drafting is paying the price. 

 

As for tomorrow, I here it is a mortal lock that Daley is coming aboard which is not a bad signing, he does not have that one thing that he does that grabs you but he does everything well. He can score a bit, play defense a bit, he hits but is a bit small. He can bounce up and down any pairing, kill penalties, play the power play. He is not a number one, he is a second pair professional d-man who is a jack of all trades kind of guy who we could certainly use. It allows us the chance to keep Cholowski, Saarjarvi and a few others down on the farm learning. If/when the wings fall from contention daley will probably fetch a 2nd rounder or so. Really a smart pickup. We have had a few black players, five minutes of the mediocre careers of Nathan Robinson and Mike Johnson and about ten games of Tony Mckegnie's great career but that is about it. I have often wondered in a city like Detroit why more minorities aren't pursued. 

 

  I am hoping that when musical chairs among the goalies tomorrow is done that someone takes Mrazek off of our hands. I was hoping for Vancouver but apparently they plan on running with the worst combo in recent memory, Markstrom and Anders Nilsson.

 

I know it often comes down to where the relationship is and who is willing to go where.   But I actually thought Daley would be a better idea in Montreal and Alzner would have been a better get for the Wings.   Thoughts?

[yave1964]

11 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I know it often comes down to where the relationship is and who is willing to go where.   But I actually thought Daley would be a better idea in Montreal and Alzner would have been a better get for the Wings.   Thoughts?

Why not both, lol?

 

  Alzner would have been a great fit for the Wings, a bit younger with some upside and I certainly would not have been against him coming to Detroit, frankly I was surprised at his contract, I thought he would get more along the lines of what Petry got a couple of years before, 5.5 million ish, 4.6 million for the next five years seems a bargain. At that term ABSOLUTELY I would have loved to see him in Detroit. That is about the first thing that went right for Montreal this entire offseason. I see him more of a defensive only d-man which the Wings need but our offense is putrid and we need the blue line to provide support and I dont see Alzner ever really being that guy.

  The problem is the Wings need a steady veteran defenseman who has versatility as kids hit the scene, Daley is a swiss army knife guy who can plug in on any pairing filling pretty much any role and is a great signing. I am a bit leery of the third year on his deal because of his age but he is a good soldier who if paired with the defensive minded Oullet can carry the puck, if paired with the offensive minded Sproul can cover up for mistakes made by the youngster and so on. I think he is better suited to the raw players he will be paired with then Alzner would have been although like I said I am envious of the deal that the Habs signed the 28 year old Alzner to. If paired with Weber he makes Weber better which the Habs desperately need.