murraycraven Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, pilldoc said: well isn't that just an interesting revelation ...... my argument is that Hextall WAS involved but a lot of folks say he wasn't... The reason I believe he was involved is that Hextall has shown signs of overly-bloated contracts in his tenure. Let's hope his first one was a mcDud and the rest will be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 On 7/5/2017 at 1:31 PM, aziz said: and the likelihood of any given prospect to develop to their perceived potentia Not trying to pile on. I agree with the above. But to use your roll of the dice analogy, if you know 7 is only going to come up a certain percentage of the time (16.67%), wouldn't it make sense to use /keep more pics to increase your odds? When you have a rash of bad luck with the picks, then go out and do what you need to plug holes. But you have a better chance of being able to do that because people, in theory, still have smaller salaries. The problem I have is that our free agent signings have historically been at least equally hit or miss as draft picks (I'd argue it's actually been worse). It hasn't been all failure, but when it is failure it's a much more expensive one and correcting it is much more difficult (sometimes requiring shutting down the league). Just saying that I don't think the odds are any better signing the 30 year old, assuming there's a worthwhile one available that isn't in the middle of an 8 year deal. And if the odds are no better but the consequences of missing more painful, well... That's just where I'm coming from on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 4 hours ago, ruxpin said: Not trying to pile on. I agree with the above. But to use your roll of the dice analogy, if you know 7 is only going to come up a certain percentage of the time (16.67%), wouldn't it make sense to use /keep more pics to increase your odds? When you have a rash of bad luck with the picks, then go out and do what you need to plug holes. But you have a better chance of being able to do that because people, in theory, still have smaller salaries. The problem I have is that our free agent signings have historically been at least equally hit or miss as draft picks (I'd argue it's actually been worse). It hasn't been all failure, but when it is failure it's a much more expensive one and correcting it is much more difficult (sometimes requiring shutting down the league). Just saying that I don't think the odds are any better signing the 30 year old, assuming there's a worthwhile one available that isn't in the middle of an 8 year deal. And if the odds are no better but the consequences of missing more painful, well... That's just where I'm coming from on this. It is why it takes a clever mix. There is no magic formula it is easier said than done. In a perfect world you want to have someone ready and groomed to step in when the vet is ready for the pasture. Injuries throw everything off....a cheap option is needed to call up in the injured player's spot. Sometimes the vet isn't ready for the pasture. Sometimes it's about money and be able to afford said player...or not being able to justify paying him and going the cheaper and younger route. No perfect way to do it. It's like the right mixture of air for the gas to combust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 4 hours ago, murraycraven said: I can't believe how many Cups we have through FA signings and trades! I will say that many of the teams that have been on the other end of said and similar trades HAVE gone on to win cups. Carolina, Chicago, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay... who am I forgetting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, King Knut said: I will say that many of the teams that have been on the other end of said and similar trades HAVE gone on to win cups. Carolina, Chicago, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay... who am I forgetting? The fact is that all of those teams had a significant home grown core that they added to and didn't just create through FA signings and trades. The trades murray is talking about were removing the core and replacing it with spit and bailing wire. Was the 03-04 run to the Conference Final fun? Sure it was. But in the end, it was a run to the Conference Final and 13 years later the Flyers still are on the outside looking in. It's not the trades that created Chicago or Los Angeles. Carolina is an apples/oranges as it happened prior to the salary cap, but still had Staal, Stillman, Cole and Cam Ward. They've also missed the playoffs 11 of the 12 seasons since. Tampa is as well, but they still had VLC, MSL, Richards, Afaneskov, Kubina... Chicago: Kane, Toews, Keith, Byfuglien, Bolland, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Niemi are all drafted/signed by the Blackhawks. Los Angeles: Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Lewis, King, Martinez, Voynov, Nolan, Quick The point I think murray is making is that if they had kept players like Williams and Sharp and Richards and Crater and Gagne and the pick that became John Carlson that their overall results might have been better than one run to the Conference Final and a Cup Final appearance. Flyers in 03-04 drafted/signed by the team and played significant (10+) games in the playoffs: Gagne, Johnsson, Pitkanen, Somik (10), Sharp. Flyers in 09-10: Richards, Crater, Giroux, Gagne, JVR, Nodl (10) and Boucher* (left and came back) Flyers in 14-15 who played significant regular season games: Giroux, Couturier, Read, Raffl, PEB. Is it a surprise that the 14-15 team is smack dab in the middle of two playoff rounds in five years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2 hours ago, radoran said: The fact is that all of those teams had a significant home grown core that they added to and didn't just create through FA signings and trades. The trades murray is talking about were removing the core and replacing it with spit and bailing wire. Was the 03-04 run to the Conference Final fun? Sure it was. But in the end, it was a run to the Conference Final and 13 years later the Flyers still are on the outside looking in. It's not the trades that created Chicago or Los Angeles. Carolina is an apples/oranges as it happened prior to the salary cap, but still had Staal, Stillman, Cole and Cam Ward. They've also missed the playoffs 11 of the 12 seasons since. Tampa is as well, but they still had VLC, MSL, Richards, Afaneskov, Kubina... Chicago: Kane, Toews, Keith, Byfuglien, Bolland, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Niemi are all drafted/signed by the Blackhawks. Los Angeles: Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Lewis, King, Martinez, Voynov, Nolan, Quick The point I think murray is making is that if they had kept players like Williams and Sharp and Richards and Crater and Gagne and the pick that became John Carlson that their overall results might have been better than one run to the Conference Final and a Cup Final appearance. Flyers in 03-04 drafted/signed by the team and played significant (10+) games in the playoffs: Gagne, Johnsson, Pitkanen, Somik (10), Sharp. Flyers in 09-10: Richards, Crater, Giroux, Gagne, JVR, Nodl (10) and Boucher* (left and came back) Flyers in 14-15 who played significant regular season games: Giroux, Couturier, Read, Raffl, PEB. Is it a surprise that the 14-15 team is smack dab in the middle of two playoff rounds in five years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 10 hours ago, radoran said: The fact is that all of those teams had a significant home grown core that they added to and didn't just create through FA signings and trades. The trades murray is talking about were removing the core and replacing it with spit and bailing wire. Was the 03-04 run to the Conference Final fun? Sure it was. But in the end, it was a run to the Conference Final and 13 years later the Flyers still are on the outside looking in. It's not the trades that created Chicago or Los Angeles. Carolina is an apples/oranges as it happened prior to the salary cap, but still had Staal, Stillman, Cole and Cam Ward. They've also missed the playoffs 11 of the 12 seasons since. Tampa is as well, but they still had VLC, MSL, Richards, Afaneskov, Kubina... Chicago: Kane, Toews, Keith, Byfuglien, Bolland, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, Niemi are all drafted/signed by the Blackhawks. Los Angeles: Brown, Kopitar, Doughty, Lewis, King, Martinez, Voynov, Nolan, Quick The point I think murray is making is that if they had kept players like Williams and Sharp and Richards and Crater and Gagne and the pick that became John Carlson that their overall results might have been better than one run to the Conference Final and a Cup Final appearance. Flyers in 03-04 drafted/signed by the team and played significant (10+) games in the playoffs: Gagne, Johnsson, Pitkanen, Somik (10), Sharp. Flyers in 09-10: Richards, Crater, Giroux, Gagne, JVR, Nodl (10) and Boucher* (left and came back) Flyers in 14-15 who played significant regular season games: Giroux, Couturier, Read, Raffl, PEB. Is it a surprise that the 14-15 team is smack dab in the middle of two playoff rounds in five years? I'm in complete agreement. I think my point with the previous post is that had we not decided to trade off key pieces of a developing core at inopportune moments in the team's development, we would have faired better and as evidence I offered that the pieces of the core we traded ended up being difference makers on other teams that DID win cups. Clarke's methods were disasterous. Tony Amonte was never going to be that difference maker at that point. Adam Oates even less so. Zhamnov actually helped, but as you point out, developing a core internally got us farther... then Homer traded them all away for bryzaster and followed that one up by trading a two time Vezina winner for a 2nd round pick because he screwed up the cap so badly it was either that or ice 25% AHLers. I dont mind deals deals like what Homer did for pieces like Coburn, Timmo, Hartnell and Briere. Richards and Carter and Gagne and soon Giroux were still the core and he got two strong D men out of thin air. Bully for him back in '07. Too bad he lost his damn mind 5 years later. This team however has no room for any of those types of players. It's roster is full now with young home grown talent. It's time to give them room to make something happen and become what they can. In another year or two, hopefully things will have progressed enough and a few more dead branches will lop themselves off so that an difference maker or two might be added. Maybe Jeff Carter? Ha ha. Did that just to make people grumpy. We all know how much flyer fans hate scoring goals. They have to work harder to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 18 hours ago, murraycraven said: my argument is that Hextall WAS involved but a lot of folks say he wasn't... The reason I believe he was involved is that Hextall has shown signs of overly-bloated contracts in his tenure. Let's hope his first one was a mcDud and the rest will be much better. A fewthings: A) long after he's gone I will still profess that MacDonald looked VERY good that spring with the Flyers. Very good. I'm not kidding. Immediately the next fall he looked horrible. At the time I blamed Berube and maybe I still do, but either way, the Mac we got pre contract was NOT the one we have ever gotten since. No matter what though that deal never made sense from a duration or dollar standpoint. The team was desperate since Pronger got hurt and Timmo got old, they wasted so much talent and money trying to have a decent d squad (JVR for Luke anyone) based purely on hoping the d man would be good. I think their hope got in the way of their brains. B) something encouraging to me is that since Voracek, hextall's deals have been getting more and more advantageous to the Flyers. I think Coots and Schenn got market value instead of inflated value (much to Mandy's refusal to accept it) and Ghost and Weal's deals were excellent. He'll his work cut out for him with Provo. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 34 minutes ago, King Knut said: A) long after he's gone I will still profess that MacDonald looked VERY good that spring with the Flyers. Very good. I'm not kidding. Immediately the next fall he looked horrible. At the time I blamed Berube and maybe I still do, but either way, the Mac we got pre contract was NOT the one we have ever gotten since. No matter what though that deal never made sense from a duration or dollar standpoint. The team was desperate since Pronger got hurt and Timmo got old, they wasted so much talent and money trying to have a decent d squad (JVR for Luke anyone) based purely on hoping the d man would be good. I think their hope got in the way of their brains. From time to time I go back and look at the thread on here about MacDonald from the time of the trade/signing. It's very enlightening. If you do, you will see me come around to the point where - having given up a 2nd and 3rd for him - even I am saying that giving him what he rejected on the Island might not have been a bad idea ($4M/4Y). Also at the time I made the direct comparison to journeyman defenceman Kris Russell and I think that the comparison remains a good one - same age, shot blocker, some power play time, "definitely an NHL player." Russell is now a $4M bottom four player for Edmonton and, if nothing else, at least has posted 30+ points in this league - something MacDonald has never done (and likely will never do). But the whole concept that his four points, -3 in 19 games was "VERY good" I do take issue with. The Flyers play did "stabilize" a bit once he got there but he was and remains tremendously overvalued. And we can't really count his 2 points in seven games in the playoffs as contributing to the contract as he had already signed it. Signing a player based on his "VERY good" play for 19 games is, was and forever will be a Bad Idea - much less the idea that it warranted a TEN TIMES increase in his salary and a contract a third longer than he had ever had before. Even his "power play ability" translated into all of 13 points in 63 games "quarterbacking" a power play in Uniondale that included Tavares and Okposo. (And I haven't even mentioned his -19 over that time). If MacDonald was here at $4M per there would be less kvetching about him, but he would still be overpaid. And there are quotes from Holmgren that they (I'm presuming "they" includes Hextall) seriously considered a longer term deal for him. That's a worrisome precedent going forward with regard to overvaluing players. Like "Dale Weise" worrisome. I just hope that Hextall continues to learn and improve on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 20 hours ago, pilldoc said: well isn't that just an interesting revelation ...... Ugggh, did not know this doc....maybe it would have been better that I *not* know it!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyClarkeFan16 Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 On 04/07/2017 at 7:29 AM, otto12 said: Goaltending will be ok. Doesn't matter much. It's a throw away season to look at the defense. Will be watching the kids, not the scoreboard. Can't imagine making the playoffs. Maybe it's just me, but I think a lot of people are selling the defense short just because they're young. Guys like Provorov, Morin, Hagg and Gostisbehere are ready to take over the D and make it theirs. Having a guy like Gudas on board means that there's a veteran presence there to keep heads level and focus on the task at hand. My only concern, and it's something that's going to continually be addressed, is that Gord Murphy is in charge of the defense. He's not a good coach. I'm actually more comfortable with Elliott in the net directing these young guys and they're going to benefit from that veteran presence. I think this is a club that has a chance to be really really good and a team that no one will want to face in the opening round simply because they're so young that there's no expectations on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 On 7/5/2017 at 10:06 AM, musky said: it wont make a difference this team is a mess,no offence and a rookie defence means bad year ahead. Let's chat again in December. Calling this team a mess is like saying the cake is a mess when the batter is being poured into the bowl. It's time to start baking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 On 7/7/2017 at 9:43 AM, radoran said: From time to time I go back and look at the thread on here about MacDonald from the time of the trade/signing. It's very enlightening. If you do, you will see me come around to the point where - having given up a 2nd and 3rd for him - even I am saying that giving him what he rejected on the Island might not have been a bad idea ($4M/4Y). Also at the time I made the direct comparison to journeyman defenceman Kris Russell and I think that the comparison remains a good one - same age, shot blocker, some power play time, "definitely an NHL player." Russell is now a $4M bottom four player for Edmonton and, if nothing else, at least has posted 30+ points in this league - something MacDonald has never done (and likely will never do). But the whole concept that his four points, -3 in 19 games was "VERY good" I do take issue with. The Flyers play did "stabilize" a bit once he got there but he was and remains tremendously overvalued. And we can't really count his 2 points in seven games in the playoffs as contributing to the contract as he had already signed it. Signing a player based on his "VERY good" play for 19 games is, was and forever will be a Bad Idea - much less the idea that it warranted a TEN TIMES increase in his salary and a contract a third longer than he had ever had before. Even his "power play ability" translated into all of 13 points in 63 games "quarterbacking" a power play in Uniondale that included Tavares and Okposo. (And I haven't even mentioned his -19 over that time). If MacDonald was here at $4M per there would be less kvetching about him, but he would still be overpaid. And there are quotes from Holmgren that they (I'm presuming "they" includes Hextall) seriously considered a longer term deal for him. That's a worrisome precedent going forward with regard to overvaluing players. Like "Dale Weise" worrisome. I just hope that Hextall continues to learn and improve on that. Something that's funny is that people point to contracts like Russels (and Lucic's) as reasons why Edmonton will never be that great despite the McDavid of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 19 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said: Maybe it's just me, but I think a lot of people are selling the defense short just because they're young. Guys like Provorov, Morin, Hagg and Gostisbehere are ready to take over the D and make it theirs. Having a guy like Gudas on board means that there's a veteran presence there to keep heads level and focus on the task at hand. My only concern, and it's something that's going to continually be addressed, is that Gord Murphy is in charge of the defense. He's not a good coach. I'm actually more comfortable with Elliott in the net directing these young guys and they're going to benefit from that veteran presence. I think this is a club that has a chance to be really really good and a team that no one will want to face in the opening round simply because they're so young that there's no expectations on them. I'm far less worried about the defense than many people. The defense was BAD last year. Like really bad. I've been saying this for a long time, but as much as everyone complains about how the Flyers had no offense and couldn't sore goals to save their lives (which is true) I whole heartedly believe that the reason why the offense couldn't score is because they were all too busy playing DEFENSE simply because the actual defense was so god awful. With the infusion of some ACTUAL defenders like Morin and Hagg (and I understand even Myers is developing some Defensive skills now and Sanheim has improved drastically) this team will improve all around. They don't even have to be great yet. They just have to play Defense. Frankly, I think they're going to be better than most poeple are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, King Knut said: Calling this team a mess is like saying the cake is a mess when the batter is being poured into the bowl. POST WINNER!!!!!! I can't like this enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: POST WINNER!!!!!! I can't like this enough. Yes... I'm secretly Chef John Stevens posting under a pseudonym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 I'll leave this right here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: I'll leave this right here.... Cause nobody knows who the starter is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: I'll leave this right here.... I don't disagree... they're very deep, which comes in handy when you don't have a clear #1. Not that Elliot isn't the clear number 1. He'd better be. He's just not a quick, Lundqvist, Price or Rinne style clear #1. They have a 1a and a 1b, both NHL caliber and experienced. Both historically better than a typical backup. (as an aside, I think Elliot will surprise some of us). They have two #1s in the AHL, one of which has limited NHL exposure, but absolutely STERLING numbers there. one of the best goalies in Juniors who is probably on his way to winning the WHL goalie of the year for the third straight season and won OHL goalie of the year at 16. They have one of the best goalies in Europe who will have two years of professional SHL experience when he comes to the NHL. And they have one of the best goalies in the NCAA. They had another strong kid who they just sent packing because there was literally no room for him and it wasn't fair to the kid. In that sense, the organization could certainly be said to have the most depth... though admittedly I don't know other organizations this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 50 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: I'll leave this right here.... i've been thinking about this. goaltending depth in the form of prospects. how do you use that? you can only play 1 goalie at a time, and new goalies breaking into the league generally need NHL time to get up to NHL speed. say, as a backup for a few seasons, getting ~30 games or so. or, even as a starter that you understand may take a few seasons to really figure things out. so..how do you leverage 4+ goalies in the system? don't you kind of have to pick one and invest a few years with the big club to see what he is? what do you do with the other 3 or whatever while you are giving the 1st guy a multi-year audition? more choices mean more chances, but the testing-time involved is a problem, isn't it? if the first 3 don't pan out, isn't it like 6 years later before you finally take that close look at the 4th? is he still with the team by that point? what has he done in the meantime, the club only has 3 starting goaltender gigs to spread around, in the NHL, AHL and ECHL, right? not trying to be a sht-stirrer here, i'm really not sure how you take advantage of this many goaltending prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted July 30, 2017 Share Posted July 30, 2017 Michal Neuvirth is working hard overseas to prepare for the upcoming season http://sonsofpenn.com/michal-neuvirth-offseason/ Good news for the Flyers! I don't mean to bust his chops but he doesn't look to me as the type who did a lot of offseason working out. So hopefully he competes hard against Elliot and may the best man win the net. His lack of offseason conditioning also makes me thinks this is a leading cause of his frequent injuries. Now i have no proof that he doesn't work out but after watching some video of him with no pads on his looks very frail and has very little muscle mass on at all. Just very small looking for a professional athlete i think. He has to put the work in during the offseason to prepare for the long regular season...his position is no different than any other endurance and strength must be added to prepare for the battle ahead....and it will be a battle! #GOFLYERS!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 16 hours ago, OccamsRazor said: Michal Neuvirth is working hard overseas to prepare for the upcoming season http://sonsofpenn.com/michal-neuvirth-offseason/ Good news for the Flyers! I don't mean to bust his chops but he doesn't look to me as the type who did a lot of offseason working out. So hopefully he competes hard against Elliot and may the best man win the net. His lack of offseason conditioning also makes me thinks this is a leading cause of his frequent injuries. Now i have no proof that he doesn't work out but after watching some video of him with no pads on his looks very frail and has very little muscle mass on at all. Just very small looking for a professional athlete i think. He has to put the work in during the offseason to prepare for the long regular season...his position is no different than any other endurance and strength must be added to prepare for the battle ahead....and it will be a battle! #GOFLYERS!!!!!! Hard to really get a handle on a guy who plays about 10% of the games in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalFruitGirl26 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 5 hours ago, elmatus said: Hard to really get a handle on a guy who plays about 10% of the games in a season. Yep. His track record is pretty much that he will guarantee you he will need time on IR....which means, a guy like Neuvirth (or whomever else Philly is going to stick in there) will see plenty of action with the opportunity to seize the starting job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 1 hour ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said: Yep. His track record is pretty much that he will guarantee you he will need time on IR....which means, a guy like Neuvirth (or whomever else Philly is going to stick in there) will see plenty of action with the opportunity to seize the starting job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 2 hours ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said: Yep. His track record is pretty much that he will guarantee you he will need time on IR....which means, a guy like Neuvirth (or whomever else Philly is going to stick in there) will see plenty of action with the opportunity to seize the starting job. 53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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