The Tatar quandary

[Hockey Forums]

 

Thomas Tatar is one of the first scheduled for salary arbitration come July 20th.  According to some reports, he has stated that he might simply test the UFA waters after a 1 yr arbitration dictated contract is up if Detroit doesn't find a way to avoid the hearing. "Arbitration is the last option, I have to sign off, it’s just a mandatory contract," Tatar reportedly said. "Unless I agree with Detroit, I’ll go to the court (salary arbitration), where they’ll give me a year’s contract. That would probably be my last season in Detroit. We’ll see in a few days or weeks before it all comes together." 

 

Tatar is asking for a 7 year deal in the $5-6M range. The 26-year-old is coming off a season where he scored 25 goals (46 points) in 82 games. This is also his thrird straight 20-goal season. Only 30 players in the NHL have scored more goals in the past three seasons than Tatar’s 75 goals.  It appears that the yearly range is appropriate but is 7 years too long?   It is being reported that the Red Wings have only offered up to a 5 year deal.

 

The question becomes is Tatar a player the Wings should commit to for 7 years?  Or is it better for them to take the 1-year defined arbitration contract and sell him at the trade deadline for prospects and picks?  

[SpikeDDS]

3 hours ago, hf101 said:

The question becomes is Tatar a player the Wings should commit to for 7 years?  Or is it better for them to take the 1-year defined arbitration contract and sell him at the trade deadline for prospects and picks?  

 

I like Tatar. I like him as a player better than I like Nyke.

 

But 7 years is ridiculous! Yes, over time he consistently scores goals, which is why I like him. However, there have also been times when he seemingly couldn't find a net if he was crouched inside of one! There have been multiple streaks of drought within those years of "consistency," and my concern is what if the season of drought becomes a season?

 

Everyone goes through their ups and downs, but his downs have been significantly long. He does make up for it in the end. But at the same time, you want someone who comes through when it counts. I'm not sure that's how I would describe him. A person who scores like he does AND it worhty of that description is worthy of 7 years. I don't think he does.

 

My bigger problem is that this has been set up by the previous contracts to Helm and Abdelkader. Their terms--particularly Helm's--set a precedent that can make others, like Tatar, who may be offered more reasonable terms feel like they are being "snubbed." Or at least that is what an agent will try to convince them, and quite honestly, it's hard to argue.

 

But the problem is that the madness has to stop at some point, or we will never be able to build a winner. I'm sorry, but Tatar is not a superstar. He's a good player, and we should make reasonable efforts to try to keep him. But if he thinks he is worth 7 years, his mind is askew, and we reallt can't afford to make another long-term mistake. We are already paying for too many of those, and once Kronner and Ericksson  hand them up, it will be even worse.

 

Holland's chickens are now coming home to roost, and we may lose another talented player as a result of it, because we are too overcommited to too many underperforming players.

 

 

[fanaticV3.0]

I forget whether we have Paul Holmgren or Garth Snow to blame for these moronic contracts. I knew that they both started throwing a ridiculous number of years at players, but I forget which one of them did it first.

[FriendlyGuitarist]

I would give Tatar 3 - 4 years max. It's good he wants to stay committed to Detroit but he is no superstar. Only the elite players should be able to sign that long of a deal. The only way I would give him 7 years if he signs for $2M a season.

[Puck_Pun]

I always find it odd whenever long term contracts are given out. Like McDavid's contract, that sort of commitment is a real gamble, because a lot can happen over that much time. Though I guess there's a marketing aspect to McDavid being tied to the club that long. 

[SpikeDDS]

47 minutes ago, Puck_Pun said:

I always find it odd whenever long term contracts are given out. Like McDavid's contract, that sort of commitment is a real gamble, because a lot can happen over that much time. Though I guess there's a marketing aspect to McDavid being tied to the club that long. 

 

Tatar is NO McDavid. I can't even believe you invoked McDavid's name in this discussion. Like comparing crabapples to delicious apples.

 

With McDavid, you have a VERY REAL potential franchise player. Those are the ones you do take a chance and give term, because it can transform a franchise. Tats offers no such hope. Not even close to being close.

 

IF Tats had been very consistent throughout his career, I might see longer for a little less. But his history just doesn't argue for that. It argues for a standard but solid contract, certainly above average, but not superstar status. 7 years is delusions of grandeur.

 

I have a feeling we will be going 1 year and then some desperate team will offer him the crazy term to nab him as a UFA, and he will be gone (hopefully after getting something for him at the deadline). That's what I smell coming.

[OccamsRazor]

Rumor Rundown: Tatar Leaving Detroit? Kessel Leaving Penguins?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/tatar-leaving-detroit-kessel-leaving-penguins/?utm_content=buffer188ec&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[FriendlyGuitarist]

37 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Rumor Rundown: Tatar Leaving Detroit? Kessel Leaving Penguins?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/tatar-leaving-detroit-kessel-leaving-penguins/?utm_content=buffer188ec&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

I'm guessing Tatar wants to go to a team that will give him his 7 years.

[J0e Th0rnton]

9 hours ago, hf101 said:

 

Thomas Tatar is one of the first scheduled for salary arbitration come July 20th.  According to some reports, he has stated that he might simply test the UFA waters after a 1 yr arbitration dictated contract is up if Detroit doesn't find a way to avoid the hearing. "Arbitration is the last option, I have to sign off, it’s just a mandatory contract," Tatar reportedly said. "Unless I agree with Detroit, I’ll go to the court (salary arbitration), where they’ll give me a year’s contract. That would probably be my last season in Detroit. We’ll see in a few days or weeks before it all comes together." 

 

Tatar is asking for a 7 year deal in the $5-6M range. The 26-year-old is coming off a season where he scored 25 goals (46 points) in 82 games. This is also his thrird straight 20-goal season. Only 30 players in the NHL have scored more goals in the past three seasons than Tatar’s 75 goals.  It appears that the yearly range is appropriate but is 7 years too long?   It is being reported that the Red Wings have only offered up to a 5 year deal.

 

The question becomes is Tatar a player the Wings should commit to for 7 years?  Or is it better for them to take the 1-year defined arbitration contract and sell him at the trade deadline for prospects and picks?  

I want Jessica from true blood to knock on my door and ravage me.

 

That's also not going to happen.

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

I want Jessica from true blood to knock on my door and ravage me.

 

That's also not going to happen.

 

Hmm...I dunno...Tyler Johnson got 7yr/$5M per...and Tatar's production has been similar to Johnson the last two seasons.

Granted, Johnson's is still slightly better and with less games played due to his injury issues, but still, the on-ice results are about the same for these two....biggest difference being Johnson takes and wins faceoffs, while Tatar is more physical and hits more often.

 

On the whole though, if Detroit thinks TB made a mistake with Tyler, they may agree with you as well and NOT give Tatar that type of money and term.

And I can agree with your comment about someone knocking on your door....cept I'd have Dwayne Johnson replace Deborah Ann Wolf... 

[yave1964]

  Let me start by saying that I am a Tatar fan, he first came to my attention with the Griffins the year before their first championship and his 2nd in GR, he looked confident and responsible on both ends of the ice, everything I read said bottom six probably 4th line grinder which confused me because he had some serious offensive potential. Most times the scouts are right, in his case they missed it.

  He plays well at both ends of the ice, he can score and gets back on defense better than most, he has a high motor. Over the last three years he is 31st in goals scored in all of hockey which with 31 teams clearly has him as a low end top line winger or quality 2nd liner who plays both ends of the ice which pretty well has him pegged.

  Tatar has dug his heels in making it clear that if he goes to arbitration without a long term deal he is gone after this year, Holland has shrugged and said that he is sorry that Tats feels that way. The Wings have offered a 5 year deal at 5 million a year, Tatar wants 7 years at 6 million a year. They are miles apart with arbitration around the corner coming like a freight train.

  The problem is not giving Tats a long term deal, it is the long term deals of Nyquist, Ericsson, Helm, Abdelkader, Nielsen, Kronwall, Howard and even Zetterberg. Many of the Wings have signed long term deals and then simply shown up on payday to collect with little effort on their part. Not all of the above but certainly some simply mail it in. Tatar wanting long term security and looking around the locker room at what these others got in terms of pay and term I see his point, and frankly I do not see him as the type to stop hustling because he got paid. Hustling and fighting for respect is what got him this far. 

  The pickle the Wings are in is what to do? Do you hold on to him knowing he is riding out his one year deal and moving on or do you trade him before the season? if so for what? If you wait until the deadline the market for a goal scorer on an expiring deal is a second rounder, but what can you get right now?

 I look at the Wings defense and see Kronwall and E both on their last legs, Daley a solid if unspectacular guy who can bounce anywhere in any pairing a shell shocked Dekeyser who needs to have some stability for a partner and Green who is almost certainly gone after this year. Then there are a million kids of varying talent levels. Oullet, Sproul, Russo, Jensen all fighting for one or two spots, all can play a bit. Lower down there truly is light at the end of the tunnel, quite a few decent defenseman within a year or so of arriving. My initial instinct says trade Tats for a defenseman who might be available, Ekblad or Demers in Florida, Faulk is supposedly not on the market in Carolina but is getting seriously pushed by a mountain of young talented blueliners and might be had for Tats and a package as they need scoring wingers badly. The point is pick up the damn phone and see what his value is. but if we dont pull the trigger the defense we see this year will not even closely resemble the one of a year or two from now. Most will be gone replaced by talented kids.

 So I take a look at the forwards and see a lot of bloated contracts of players like Z, Nielsen, Abby, Nyke, and Helm. Some give it all every night, some dont. I see underperformers such as Sheahan and I see some damn talented kids such as Svechnikov, Mantha, Larkin and Athanasiou and Bertuzzi on his way, most of these kids have been underutilized to get ice time for the vets. Sheahan got regular second pair ice time on the power play for God sake to 'get him going.' Please, lets do just that, get him going somewhere else.

  But I digress.

  The point is Tatar is needed, a top six winger who can score and covers his own end nicely is difficult to replace. Is 6 million for 7 years absurd? Absolutely. Is 5 and 5 fair? It probably was going into this offseason but the standards have changed with the long term deals teams are throwing out to lock up their own.

 If I had my druthers I would:

 

1)Sign him 5.5 million for 6 years maybe a bit more. Try to find the middle ground. Tats is exactly the type of  player we need to keep and build around. OR 2) if he turns that down, trade him for Ekblad or Demers or Jack Johnson or Ryan Murray or whatever quality d-man we can get. Waiting lowers his value not raises it.

 Part of the problem with trading him, other than the money is Matt Duchene in Colorado. The Avalanche and Sakic have drug this out to an absurd degree and teams with money to spend are waiting him out, forwards such as Vanek and Stafford are without jobs still as teams are afraid to spend money in case they work out a deal with Colorado for the gifted center who can also play wing. Duchene has the advantage of being signed for two more years and plays center, dominoes are still standing (such as Tatar) because Sakic cant pull the trigger. He has to eventually, he literally has only two NHL d-men in his team, his third best and I kid you not is Mark Barberio who cant play. Teams are waiting to see who lands Duchene before looking around at what is left. Tatar would make a fine consolation prize.

  So sign him now (my first choice) or trade him now (my second choice) waiting would only lower his value.

[SpikeDDS]

My $0.02:

 

If we can get a good return, trade him. The trick is getting the good return, and you are right, the longer we wait, the more desperate to move him we look and the less we will get in return for him if we do. As much as I like him--and I have said repeatedly that I do--we need to stop the madness with these contracts they give too long a term for too much somewhere. I wish they had done it with Helm. But they didn't. My first choice is to trade so long as return is good.

 

I wouldn't go longer than 5 years unless the cap hit/salary goes down significantly. Now at I'd go 7. I don't even like 6. For the record, had we not overcommitted to Helm and Abby, I might be convinced to bend here. But since we are stuck with them, Tats loses out and so do we. 

 

i just like think that in the long run, our best case scenario is to develop our internal talent and keeping yet another player--even though Tats is one of the better ones--delays that development for one young forward, perpetuating what's been happening for several seasons. 

[jammer2]

14 hours ago, SpikeDDS said:

My $0.02:

 

If we can get a good return, trade him. The trick is getting the good return, and you are right, the longer we wait, the more desperate to move him we look and the less we will get in return for him if we do. As much as I like him--and I have said repeatedly that I do--we need to stop the madness with these contracts they give too long a term for too much somewhere. I wish they had done it with Helm. But they didn't. My first choice is to trade so long as return is good.

 

I wouldn't go longer than 5 years unless the cap hit/salary goes down significantly. Now at I'd go 7. I don't even like 6. For the record, had we not overcommitted to Helm and Abby, I might be convinced to bend here. But since we are stuck with them, Tats loses out and so do we. 

 

i just like think that in the long run, our best case scenario is to develop our internal talent and keeping yet another player--even though Tats is one of the better ones--delays that development for one young forward, perpetuating what's been happening for several seasons. 

 

 Honestly, I would try and trade the guy. He stunk in the first half of last year, really, only earned this potential contract riding on the coattalis of Zetts, who had a tremendous 2nd half. I think when Zetts goes, Tatar's goal production goes along with it. It would be a REAL risk signing this guy beyond a 1 or 2 year deal. The big positive is he scores a decent amount of 5 on 5 goals, which kinda surpirsed me. I'm not a fan of the guy, and I could get a respectable return, I count on the rest of the roster to make up for Tatar's 20+ goals. Hell, AA might get half of those goals back just by himself. A smart savvy GM would offer sheet AA and make so the Wings can't afford it. Holland has left them vulnerable, if somebody offer sheeted AA for say 4 mill, the Wings could not match....OR would take a soaking from GM's knowing they HAD to dump salary. Not good planning iMHO. 

[jammer2]

15 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

I wouldn't go longer than 5 years unless the cap hit/salary goes down significantly. Now at I'd go 7. I don't even like 6. For the record, had we not overcommitted to Helm and Abby, I might be convinced to bend here. But since we are stuck with them, Tats loses out and so do we. 

 

 

Yes, Helm and Abby were unwise contract extensions. They provide speed, some sandpaper, not much skill. Those kinda players should really be viewed a dime and dozen. The smart guys, who cram the most talent into their roster cap wise, don't give out money to 3 and 4th line bottom sixers. Look at Stevie Y, he let Brian Boyle go for a middling draft pick rather than give him a significant raise....and he brings as much as Abby or Helm, AND Boyle comes up big in the playoffs. If you guys ever make it again, (LMAO, sorry had to !!) I don't think it will be the Helmer leading the way. Again, just too loyal on behalf of Holland, you see it time and time again, hey isn't Cleary due for an extension?? 

[hf101]

Some of the post order may be mixed a bit as both Tatar topics have been merged.

[nossagog]

This is beginning to sound like a bad situation. From the outside looking in, I've always liked Tatar. He's a hard working player that I think is really good in his own defensive zone, which is a big plus in today's age.  His numbers don't say superstar, but they're very solid and will make a lot of teams look to him if things go downhill in Detroit. 

 

But if he's really making the statement that he's gone ifhe doesn't get a long term deal, I have my worries.  As players are always quick to say when the leave a team in free agency, "It's just business". And a team needs to look at everyone, on a long term basis, to see if they help or hurt their team.  As well as what they expect the cap to do in future years.  That's the hard part about "long term" contracts.  You really have to make sure before you offer that 5+ year contract. Just look at the candy that the Caps tossed out, do you really think that they want to see  Brooks Orpik for two more years at a $5.5M cap hit?

 

IMHO, the wings have always been one of the best organizations in evaluating and paying players within the teams complete salary structure. I hate to say it, but if Tatar is making demands like this, I think that the Wings may take a look at moving him. 

[OccamsRazor]

 

HHHhmmmmm trade maybe???

[hf101]

Hours left...  Arbitration Hearing today.

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, hf101 said:

Hours left...  Arbitration Hearing today.

 

Hey let's trade Brayden Schenn for him...

 

 

....ooooops i forgot he is gone already!!!

 

[hf101]

On 7/14/2017 at 8:50 AM, yave1964 said:

  The pickle the Wings are in is what to do? Do you hold on to him knowing he is riding out his one year deal and moving on or do you trade him before the season? if so for what? If you wait until the deadline the market for a goal scorer on an expiring deal is a second rounder, but what can you get right now?

 

It doesn't look they found any middle ground.  Detroit not finding away to sign him long term most likely means that Tatar will be history come next year.  Since Tatar will be looking for a larger deal next season I expect he will be working to have a solid season this year.  I suspect Holland will be looking to trade him at the trade deadline for prospects and picks. 

[OccamsRazor]

Well i guess he got what he wanted...

 

4 years 5.3 mill AAV for 21 mill

[AJgoal]

I saw that, and my first reaction was, "I didn't think you could sign a deal after the arbitration hearing?"

[yave1964]

1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

I saw that, and my first reaction was, "I didn't think you could sign a deal after the arbitration hearing?"

You can still work a deal after arbitration as long as the ruling has not come down yet. Once the ruling comes down that is it for the following season. 

 

Good contract, satisfied with the term and the money. As I mentioned, he is 31st in goals scored over the past three seasons, essentially a bottom end first liner or a top tier second liner which has him pegged about right. The problem contract wise is not Tats it is Abdelkader, Helm, Ericsson and the rest of the guys who signed long term deals and quit doing the things that got them paid in the first place. Tatar never quits, he is a solid player at both ends and with salaries going crazy this offseason it might end up being a bargain.

[jammer2]

 The big question here is, how much of Tatar's production is tied directly to Zetterberg?  This contract goes past the time that Zetts will retire......so, how does this affect his production? The length of this deal troubles me, because he does not really create all that much, he NEEDS a center who can find him with slick passes. When Zetts inevitably leaves, does Tatar's production go with?

[yave1964]

6 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 The big question here is, how much of Tatar's production is tied directly to Zetterberg?  This contract goes past the time that Zetts will retire......so, how does this affect his production? The length of this deal troubles me, because he does not really create all that much, he NEEDS a center who can find him with slick passes. When Zetts inevitably leaves, does Tatar's production go with?

I think you can say that about most anyone, most players playing alongside a star will see an uptick in their numbers, last year Tats was down until paired with Z and then his numbers went up, he was easily the teams leading goal scorer. The Wings offense is horrible, you simply could not afford to let him get away. Like I said, a passable winger on a top line, a very solid second liner. Throw in that unlike so many of his mates he back checks and is responsible in his own zone and you have to like (but not love) the signing.