Sean Couturier Overdue for Breakout Season

[pilldoc]

So our yearly debate about Coots will begin again ......

 

Is this the year that Sean Couturier, who is long overdue, has his breakout season?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/flyers-sean-couturier-overdue-break-out-season/

 

Every year it seems like it’s the same old story with Sean Couturier. Fans set their expectations for the young Philadelphia Flyers center and every year they are let down by his lack of production.

 

• Are the expectations for Couturier too high?
• Is he unable to produce at the NHL level?
• Or is there something that fans aren’t seeing?

 

Next season will be very telling about Couturier’s progress. The departure of Schenn and the addition of Filppula will make things interesting.

 

• Will he play on the top power play unit?
• Will he struggle to put up points due to his defensive role?
• Will we see a Mark Scheifele type break out?

 

Only time will tell.

[OccamsRazor]

Put him on the 3rd with some good linemates and he will succeed....on the 2nd and he won't.

 

Stop with the pay dictating where someone goes in the lineup. 3rd line center are important too.

 

I hope he has worked on his skating this offseason for real......

[Podein25]

5 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

Will we see a Mark Scheifele type break out?

 

I don't know about the rest of the questions, but on this one I think we can conclude:  No. 

 

Neither Sean's feet nor his hands are remotely fast enough. I think he's fully baked as a player, but maybe that's just me being pessimistic.

[B21]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

So our yearly debate about Coots will begin again ......

 

Is this the year that Sean Couturier, who is long overdue, has his breakout season?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/flyers-sean-couturier-overdue-break-out-season/

 

Every year it seems like it’s the same old story with Sean Couturier. Fans set their expectations for the young Philadelphia Flyers center and every year they are let down by his lack of production.

 

• Are the expectations for Couturier too high?
• Is he unable to produce at the NHL level?
• Or is there something that fans aren’t seeing?

 

Next season will be very telling about Couturier’s progress. The departure of Schenn and the addition of Filppula will make things interesting.

 

• Will he play on the top power play unit?
• Will he struggle to put up points due to his defensive role?
• Will we see a Mark Scheifele type break out?

 

Only time will tell.

 

I just put this in my Outlook calendar for next year (and the year after and the year after). You guys might still be debating him when's he's 30. 

 

My $.02 - at this point, after 5 full NHL seasons (plus the "full" lockout shortened season) he is what he is. Sure - maybe there is a late bloom. There are a handful of those one could point to as "evidence" Couturier has the same career arch. Problem is there are a couple of hundred handfuls of players who after 5+ NHL seasons reached the point of "they are what they are".

 

No matter what though - you'll always have "Yeah - but he shut down Malkin in a playoff series."  

 

(And please - for anyone in the "yeah but he only played in 31 AHL games camp" - that argument has long lost any credibility. Anything he should/would have learned in the AHL he would have certainly picked up at some point over the last six years in the NHL.)

[Podein25]

18 minutes ago, B21 said:

Sure - maybe there is a late bloom.

 

All the evidence so far says Coots was an "early bloomer"™

[OccamsRazor]

Making a career as a 3rd line center isn't so bad. 

 

I remember back when folks said his ceiling was a Jordan Staal type.

 

And even today that is a pretty good ceiling he is 4 years younger.

 

I'd call it more like a poor man's Jordan Staal for 1.7 mill cheaper.

 

I'm ok with that even though he hasn't accomplished what Jordan has yet he could still.

 

I don't think anyone would be happy with Staal's 6 mill price tag for only 16 goals 45 points huh?

 

Not saying he will for 4.3mill that is pretty decent for a 3rd line center in today's market.

[Howie58]

When I read this the analytics theme stood out: He is OK as a scorer in he offensive zone. But that's not his wheelhouse.  Agreed that if he is a productive 3rd center--fine with me.  The injury-proneness is perhaps a bit scarier.  We hope that isn't his new normal.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

He's the defensive conscience of the team. He probably plays the hardest role in hockey and gets more defensive zone starts than any of the Selke award winning players in the game, but columnists and fans still bitch about Couturier becoming an offensive presence. It's never going to happen and that's perfectly fine. As mentioned Couturier plays the hardest role in hockey and will sacrifice offense to ensure his defensive responsibilities are met. He's improved every other facet of his game, including faceoff percentage, which was 55.1% last year. 

 

And as much as people get on him about offense, who are his 'regular' linemates? Exactly. He's never been given anything consistent. Usually, he gets the players who are slumping and often gets them out of their slump and then in their infinite coaching wisdom, the Flyers coaching staff takes guys away from him as soon as he gets them out of their slump, they start producing and he begins to develop chemistry with guys. If there's one guy outside of Brayden Schenn who hasn't been given a fair shake by Flyers coaching staffs, Couturier is that guy. 

 

Personally, I don't care if he ever produces more than 40 points a year. Give me a guy who's a demon defensively and willing to do what ever people ask of him for the sake of the team and winning and I'm perfectly content. That's what you get with Couturier. He really is the ultimate team player.

[vis]

Couturier is fine as a 3rd line center.  It's when he is cast a 2nd line center and gets PP time that raises my ire.  Simply amazing to me that the guy who centers the 2nd PP unit musters two goals on the season.  That's almost impossible.  Also drives me crazy that he's a fancy stat darling, to the point where his on ice shortcomings are overlooked because a spreadsheet says he's better than Jonathan Toews.

 

I give him credit for improving his FO%.  I did not realize he posted such a strong improvement in that area.  Next step, imo, is for him to pick him some intensity.

 

I'm done waiting for an offensive improvement.  I said I'd be fine with his deal if he ascended to perennial Selke candidate.  He has not achieved that level yet, but he can get there.

[fanaticV3.0]

He is not due for anything, because he is what he is. Everyone, except the organ-I-zation, seems to know he's a pretty good third line center. He is a good defensive center that I would not trade him simply because he doesn't score, stop thinking he is capable more than what he has shown.

[King Knut]

On 7/14/2017 at 3:11 PM, pilldoc said:

So our yearly debate about Coots will begin again ......

 

Is this the year that Sean Couturier, who is long overdue, has his breakout season?

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/flyers-sean-couturier-overdue-break-out-season/

 

Every year it seems like it’s the same old story with Sean Couturier. Fans set their expectations for the young Philadelphia Flyers center and every year they are let down by his lack of production.

 

• Are the expectations for Couturier too high?
• Is he unable to produce at the NHL level?
• Or is there something that fans aren’t seeing?

 

Next season will be very telling about Couturier’s progress. The departure of Schenn and the addition of Filppula will make things interesting.

 

• Will he play on the top power play unit?
• Will he struggle to put up points due to his defensive role?
• Will we see a Mark Scheifele type break out?

 

Only time will tell.

 

It really depends on a lot of other factors.

 

The thing Everyone needs to keep in mind about Couturier is already top 2 on the team at Even Strength, and not in Corsi Playdrivng metric B.S. either. 

 

He was 2nd on the team in Even Strength Goals and 4th in Even Strength Assists (6 off the leader and 2 off of 2nd place).   This in spite of only playing 66 games (which isn't NOT a concern in and of itself).

 

That's .21 GPG and .25 APG at Even strength compared to .18 GPG and .28 APG for Voracek, .16 GPG and .17 APG for Simmonds and .11 GPG and .21 APG for Giroux.

 

of all of those leaders, Couturier not only outscored them at even strength, but he was the only one who ended up even close to a positive +/-.

 

Which means that Despite scoring 15 Even Strength Goals, Voracek was on the ice for 39 goals against, Simmonds for 31 Goals against and Giroux for 24.

 

Couturier was +12, the only player amongst the team leaders of any category a net positive.  

 

What all this says besides the fact that couturier is pretty terrible on the Power Play and probably shouldn't be out there for it (Though Filppula isn't much better, so hopefully Patrick, Lindblom, Weal and Konecny start to really show something for the 2nd unit).  

 

A lot of people complain that Couturier isn't even an elite Defensive forward, but his even strength goals for is equal to Toews and better than Bergeron or Kopitar.  

 

Couturier also has more significantly more defensive zone starts than any of those so called defensive specialists and far more than other player on the Flyers (especially forwards).  

 

The only player on the Flyers remotely close to Couturier at overall efficiency at even strength was Konecny who potted 8 ESG and ended a mere -2.  Voracek put in 6 more ESA than Coots, but ended a G.D. -24 which is pretty terrible. 

 

A problem I see for Couturier this year is that the only players who played more Short Handed minutes than he did (PEB AND VDV) are both no longer with the team, so he's likely to see even more PK minutes than he did last year. 

 

Hopefully he can be relieved of his PP duties, leaving him fresher for the added PK minutes.  

 

In fact who is going to play on the PK remains a bit of a mystery to me.  It'll be Coots and probably Simmonds again (because he was pretty good at it) but Probably Read and maybe Laughton if he makes the team... aside from that, I'm not sure which forwards get PK minutes.

 

Long story short, if we're hoping Couturier has a 30 goal 50 assist season, it's probably not going to happen.  Very few players score like that at even strength.  Austin Matthews scored 31 ESG last year, but only 16 ESA. McDavid scored 45 ESA and 25 ESG.  That's about the ceiling, I'd guess. And that's an MVP earning 12 million a year.

 

There's plenty of room in between for Coots to step up his game despite not being great on the PP.  What I'd like to see is Coots along with Konecny and maybe Weal leading the charge and taking the ice as the PP expires.  

 

Hakstol won't be able to send out PEB and VDV like he liked to last year.  Oppositions are likely to send out their top lines, and it could be a good opportunity for Coots' line to not only shut down any momentum gained from killing off a PK, but also take advantage of a D pairing that is either  exhausted or simply not the strongest pair on the team.  

 

Just me... I don't think it's crazy to expect more of Coots, but I think it's important to understand what he's doing well, what he's not and what's reasonable to expect.  

 

If he stays healthy and plays like he did toward the end of last season (even if he's put out there with Weise again) as long as he has some speed (Konecny, Weal) to get open for him and create some space, I could see him putting in 25-27 goals.   

 

Staying healthy hasn't been his strong suit (he draws hard minutes to be fair) and if the Defense isn't any better at shutting down and controlling the puck in their own zone, Coots is going to be logging a lot of minutes inside his own blue line again which will make scoring even harder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

25 minutes ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

He is not due for anything, because he is what he is. Everyone, except the organ-I-zation, seems to know he's a pretty good third line center. He is a good defensive center that I would not trade him simply because he doesn't score, stop thinking he is capable more than what he has shown.

 

See my response above, but He's the 2nd best Scorer on the team at even strength.  Take his defensive game into account (the only + player in the top 6 at +12-far and away better than the others) He's already a better overall player than anyone else at even strength...  

 

He's just god awful on the PP for whatever reason.  That's literally the only difference between him and the guys who do "score".  

 

Simmer, Giroux and especially Voracek and Schenn were amazing on the PP, but God Awful at Even strength.

 

If you look at the guys for the back of their hockey cards, you see Couturier as a player who doesn't score because he didn't put in Schenn and Simmer's 25  and 31 goals, but in the 40-50 minutes a game NOT spent on the Power Play, Couturier was far and away the best forward on the ice last year.  

 

IMHO, instead of talking about why Coots doesn't score or why he's "just a good defensive center" we should be talking about why Simmonds, Schenn, Giroux and Voracek are so terrible at Even Strength right now?  I've been explicit about why i think that is and it has more to do with the Defense than those players.

 

Bright spots are that Weal and Konecny have numbers at Even Strength that look to be able to help out.

 

Hopefully getting the likes of one of them and Patrick and Maybe Lindblom on the 2nd PP unit will help out the 2nd unit and keep Coots for Even strength (when he excels) and the PK (which he'll have to play more if this year unfortunately).  

 

Long story short, he's not just a good defensive center.  He's just not a good PP forward and that's the beginning and end of the numbers most Flyers fans see as making him not a good top 6 forward.

 

 

[fanaticV3.0]

10 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

See my response above, but He's the 2nd best Scorer on the team at even strength.  Take his defensive game into account (the only + player in the top 6 at +12-far and away better than the others) He's already a better overall player than anyone else at even strength...  

 

He's just god awful on the PP for whatever reason.  That's literally the only difference between him and the guys who do "score".  

 

Simmer, Giroux and especially Voracek and Schenn were amazing on the PP, but God Awful at Even strength.

 

If you look at the guys for the back of their hockey cards, you see Couturier as a player who doesn't score because he didn't put in Schenn and Simmer's 25  and 31 goals, but in the 40-50 minutes a game NOT spent on the Power Play, Couturier was far and away the best forward on the ice last year.  

 

IMHO, instead of talking about why Coots doesn't score or why he's "just a good defensive center" we should be talking about why Simmonds, Schenn, Giroux and Voracek are so terrible at Even Strength right now?  I've been explicit about why i think that is and it has more to do with the Defense than those players.

 

Bright spots are that Weal and Konecny have numbers at Even Strength that look to be able to help out.

 

Hopefully getting the likes of one of them and Patrick and Maybe Lindblom on the 2nd PP unit will help out the 2nd unit and keep Coots for Even strength (when he excels) and the PK (which he'll have to play more if this year unfortunately).  

 

Long story short, he's not just a good defensive center.  He's just not a good PP forward and that's the beginning and end of the numbers most Flyers fans see as making him not a good top 6 forward.

 

 

 

No.

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, vis said:

Couturier is fine as a 3rd line center.  It's when he is cast a 2nd line center and gets PP time that raises my ire.  Simply amazing to me that the guy who centers the 2nd PP unit musters two goals on the season.  That's almost impossible.  Also drives me crazy that he's a fancy stat darling, to the point where his on ice shortcomings are overlooked because a spreadsheet says he's better than Jonathan Toews.

 

I give him credit for improving his FO%.  I did not realize he posted such a strong improvement in that area.  Next step, imo, is for him to pick him some intensity.

 

I'm done waiting for an offensive improvement.  I said I'd be fine with his deal if he ascended to perennial Selke candidate.  He has not achieved that level yet, but he can get there.

 

I don't understand his PP suckitude either, but let's keep it in perspective.  The First PP unit had Simmer, Schenn, Giroux, Voracek and Ghost.   Who exactly did that leave to play with Couturier on the 2nd Unit?  Read?  Raffl?  Weise?  I know Filppula came later in the season, but he's actually historically not a good PP guy either and he proved that when he came to the Flyers playing just about as poorly as Coots on the PP.  

 

Streit was the only 2nd unit player with any real play making/passing/shooting prowess and he was literally too old for the Penguins to skate in the PO's.  

 

I don't know what you think of as Fancy Stats.  But Even Strength points and +/- shouldn't be seen as "Fancy" by any hockey fan.  That's the essence of the game.  What good are 20 goals if you're literally on the ice for 40 goals against?  Scoring more goals is only a good thing if you don't give up more goals too.

 

Corsi, Fenwick, hell even Defensive Zone starts I'll give you as a bit complicated (though the fact that he has so many D zone starts and that his Corsi for is so high really indicates an incredibly strong player).  

 

The good news is that Weal, Patrick, Konecny and Lindblom ass have a lot of potential to be much stronger talent on the PP than Read, Raffl and Weise and Hextall seems to be pretty committed to seeing what they can do.  

 

My hope is that Coots doesn't play on the 2nd Unit anymore, but rather is Centering the line they send out as the PP expires.  

 

But even if they put him back out there and give him say Patrick, Weal and Konecny and Provo... MAAAAYBE Sanheim depending on how things go) I do think things will get better.

 

Hopefully someday soon Patrick will just be the 2nd Unit PP guy and Coots can focus on the things he does better.  

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

No.

 

No what?  You wont' read my response?

 

Well that makes visiting a message board a bit pointless doesn't it?  

 

 

[King Knut]

On 7/14/2017 at 11:34 PM, Howie58 said:

When I read this the analytics theme stood out: He is OK as a scorer in he offensive zone. But that's not his wheelhouse.  Agreed that if he is a productive 3rd center--fine with me.  The injury-proneness is perhaps a bit scarier.  We hope that isn't his new normal.

 

I fear that is potentially inherent in the role he's asked to play.

 

That is probably why Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar don't get all those D zone starts anymore.

[OccamsRazor]

7 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

No what?  You wont' read my response?

 

Well that makes visiting a message board a bit pointless doesn't it?  

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

On 7/14/2017 at 4:41 PM, B21 said:

 

I just put this in my Outlook calendar for next year (and the year after and the year after). You guys might still be debating him when's he's 30. 

 

My $.02 - at this point, after 5 full NHL seasons (plus the "full" lockout shortened season) he is what he is. Sure - maybe there is a late bloom. There are a handful of those one could point to as "evidence" Couturier has the same career arch. Problem is there are a couple of hundred handfuls of players who after 5+ NHL seasons reached the point of "they are what they are".

 

No matter what though - you'll always have "Yeah - but he shut down Malkin in a playoff series."  

 

(And please - for anyone in the "yeah but he only played in 31 AHL games camp" - that argument has long lost any credibility. Anything he should/would have learned in the AHL he would have certainly picked up at some point over the last six years in the NHL.)

 

 

 

What kind of player exactly do you think he should be playing like?

 

The problem with this "Coots is what he is" line of thinking is that it seems to suggest that what he is has been a disappointment.

 

If you wanted Coots to be an 80 point NHL player, then yes.  You would be disappointed.

 

But back in the real world where Hockey is a game played and not just the numbers on the back of a hockey card, Hockey games are Won by scoring more goals than you let in.  

 

Now the argument is that PP goals count just as much as regular goals, but the goals scored AGAINST YOU count just as much whether you're a PP specialist or not. 

 

Voracek, Giroux, Schenn and even the blessed Simmonds (who also played the PK) were all TERRIBLE at even strength.  They were all minus players and they were all SO bad that even the excessive power play goals they scored don't make up for the goals they gave up at even strength.

 

I've love to have another Superstar and I loved when Jake and G were near the top of the scoring leaders and I loved when Recchi broke 100points for the Flyers and I loved when LeClair was putting in 40 goals all those years in row.

But I like winning Hockey games more than all of that combined and if every player on this team was as BAD on the PP as Coots is, but as Good at everything else as Coots is, the Flyers would beat almost any team in the NHL any night of the weak.

 

So he can't score on the PP?  Turns out he's just damn good at being a hockey player.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

14 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

There's just so much Brown in this cartoon.  It's disturbing.  It's hard for it not to evoke... stuff.

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

There's just so much Brown in this cartoon.  It's disturbing.  It's hard for it not to evoke... stuff.

 

Well you've been warned....the rest is on you....

[King Knut]

16 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

Only on a Philly Fan Forum is a perrennial 30-35 goal scorer like Carter (who managed to be a positive +/- guy in all but one of those years) lambasted 5 years after he leaves the team, while at the same time a guy who is the best player on the ice in any situation not a power play is ridiculed for "being what he is".  

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Well you've been warned....the rest is on you....

 

I think I was hinting that I was getting the general idea... a whiff if you will... of what you meant.  

[vis]

27 minutes ago, King Knut said:

I don't understand his PP suckitude either, but let's keep it in perspective.  The First PP unit had Simmer, Schenn, Giroux, Voracek and Ghost.   Who exactly did that leave to play with Couturier on the 2nd Unit?  Read?  Raffl?  Weise?  I know Filppula came later in the season, but he's actually historically not a good PP guy either and he proved that when he came to the Flyers playing just about as poorly as Coots on the PP.  

The second unit was terrible as a whole.  As the C, and the QB of the unit (they ran a lot through him along the side boards), it falls on Couturier.  He could not generate ANYTHING.  It's inconceivable.

 

27 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Hopefully someday soon Patrick will just be the 2nd Unit PP guy and Coots can focus on the things he does better.  

Should happen this year, if not Filppula.  Cannot run Couturier out there again.

[King Knut]

28 minutes ago, vis said:

The second unit was terrible as a whole.  As the C, and the QB of the unit (they ran a lot through him along the side boards), it falls on Couturier.  He could not generate ANYTHING.  It's inconceivable.

 

Should happen this year, if not Filppula.  Cannot run Couturier out there again.

 

Filppula isn't any better than Couturier by the numbers, so there's no use in that.  He wasn't very good before coming to Philly either.  He's just not a PP forward.  

 

And while I agree that Couturier isn't very good on the PP, but he's certainly not the QB of the 2nd Unit.  He takes the faceoffs, but doesn't play the point or the Giroux floating slot position.  

 

Part of what makes the first unit so good is that Giroux can act a little bit like a 2nd QB from down low on that left side, despite not being the on the point man.   Ghost is the QB of the first Unit.  Streit was the QB of the second unit, but he was hurt some of last year and less effective the rest of last year to such a degree that the Penguins traded for him then literally didn't play him in 9-% of the playoffs.  

 

This is part of why The Flyers need Sanheim and or Myers to progress and be ready to start playing NHL minutes because they both have PP QB potential.

 

But you're right, Couturier doesn't do what G does on the first Unit either, but they don't play him there on the 2nd unit either.  There's really no comparison.  They more or less try to play him like a big man in the middle and that's just not who he is and that is why you're right about the fact that he just shouldn't be out there.  

 

There could be ways to make him more effective on the PP (he has gotten pretty good at faceoffs) but I don't happen to think it's worth it.  Put him in a position to excel at what he's clearly better at (Even Strength and the PK) and use that to help your team stop the deluge of goals against and put in a few more for at even strength.  

 

Try to grow Patrick into that 2nd Unit Center.  Put him out there with Weal, Konecny or Lindblom and Sanheim and Provo and see what happens.  

 

But last year, I'm not really sure what other options they had other than Couturier on the 2nd Unit.

Schenn doesn't play Center any more and found a home on the first unit.

 

Were they going to play Bellemare?  Laughton?  Gordon?  VandeVelde?  

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Filppula isn't any better than Couturier by the numbers, so there's no use in that.  He wasn't very good before coming to Philly either.

 

Well Filpula finished 44th in 5 on 5 points with 35.

 

And Coots finished 57th with 31. So they are pretty close to the same i say.

 

And i would think Filppula would win in a race...