Ek rumor (e3) Sanheim and 3rd for Pacioretty

[jammer2]

  What I don't get is, why trade away Sergachev for an offensive player, and then turn around and trade Gally or Max for Sanheim??  Why not just keep Sergachev to begin with?  Sadly enough, the answer may indeed be that Drouin is French, and they desperately wanted a French star (a piss poor way to build a winner btw).  As much as I like Sanheim, and truly admire his skating, I don't think he has that ultra top gear that Sergachev possesses. When he is flying, all the other players look like they are moving in slow motion. He can straight out lift you out of your seat, he something special. 

[AJgoal]

56 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

   Sadly enough, the answer may indeed be that Drouin is French, and they desperately wanted a French star (a piss poor way to build a winner btw).  

 

I understandthat Bergevin said as much in his press conference on the trade. That the fact that Drouin was French Canadian was a (not the, though) specific reason for the trade.

[jammer2]

Just now, AJgoal said:

 

I understandthat Bergevin said as much in his press conference on the trade. That the fact that Drouin was French Canadian was a (not the, though) specific reason for the trade.

 

 I find that reasoning bizarre. There is no doubt in my mind that Drouin is a nice offensive force, but he does have some maturity problem. My real question is.....will he be a player that takes you on his back in the playoffs?  Myself, I don't think you should EVER trade a talent like Sergachev. Big mobile dmen with amazing skating rank higher than a skinny French Canadian kid in my little corner of the world.

 

  I find it amazing you can go so far out of the way to acquire someone based on the language they speak. Hockey is like a religion in Montreal, we all know that....but this move seems forced. If Drouin does not become a star in the playoffs, when it matters the most, the Habs will have lost this trade. 

[Trefilov22]

6 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

About the time Giroux turned 28 and started sucking I think.

 

And I think the fear about him being 28 has only a small part to do with that.  It's more that he'll be 30 by the time most of us start expecting serious playoff competition from this team... AND looking for a new contract. 

 

Exactly.  

[fanaticV3.0]

20 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

About the time Giroux turned 28 and started sucking I think.

 

And I think the fear about him being 28 has only a small part to do with that.  It's more that he'll be 30 by the time most of us start expecting serious playoff competition from this team... AND looking for a new contract. 

 

So we are measuring all 28-year-olds up against him?

 

Three of the top points leaders players were 28 or older last year. Five of the top 10 or 28 or older. Do I need to keep going to prove how dumb the above mindset is?

[King Knut]

19 minutes ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

So we are measuring all 28-year-olds up against him?

 

Three of the top points leaders players were 28 or older last year. Five of the top 10 or 28 or older. Do I need to keep going to prove how dumb the above mindset is?

 

Not at all, and I am far from thinking he's actually in an age related decline.  I'm just saying that's probably where the "28 is old " sentiment is coming from.  I wasn't stating my own opinion.

 

28 is probably the outer edge of a long term contract.  You give a guy 8 years when he's 28, you're definitely paying well beyond his productive range.  Oshie just got almost 5.7 million until he's 38.  Is the guy going to be worth that at 38?  Jagr was, but how many others can do that?

 

We're paying GIroux until he's 34.  I'm okay with that.  Whether Giroux comes back or not (I think he will, maybe not 93 points again, but I don't think he's in an age related drop off this drastic just yet) either way I think paying a guy to be productive until he's 34 is a safe bet.  You assume he'll be productive until 32 and then the last two years even if they don't work out, they're an acceptable premium to pay to have the guy during his quality years.

 

I don't think Giroux is done by a long shot.  He passed the eye test at the end of last year with Flying colors.  This was about the time he admitted his injury had still been causing him trouble all season but that it was starting to feel better.  It showed.  

 

Additionally, the injury aside, until Hakstol starts coaching to his skill set again, I really can't blame Giroux for his lack of production.  Last year, Hak made a conscious choice to give up on scoring in favor of preventing goals.  It happened about 3 weeks into the season.  It worked for a month, then the wheels came off absurdly.  

 

In Morin and Hagg we trust.  

[fanaticV3.0]

1 minute ago, King Knut said:

 

Not at all, and I am far from thinking he's actually in an age related decline.  I'm just saying that's probably where the "28 is old " sentiment is coming from.  I wasn't stating my own opinion.

 

28 is probably the outer edge of a long term contract.  You give a guy 8 years when he's 28, you're definitely paying well beyond his productive range.  Oshie just got almost 5.7 million until he's 38.  Is the guy going to be worth that at 38?  Jagr was, but how many others can do that?

 

We're paying GIroux until he's 34.  I'm okay with that.  Whether Giroux comes back or not (I think he will, maybe not 93 points again, but I don't think he's in an age related drop off this drastic just yet) either way I think paying a guy to be productive until he's 34 is a safe bet.  You assume he'll be productive until 32 and then the last two years even if they don't work out, they're an acceptable premium to pay to have the guy during his quality years.

 

I don't think Giroux is done by a long shot.  He passed the eye test at the end of last year with Flying colors.  This was about the time he admitted his injury had still been causing him trouble all season but that it was starting to feel better.  It showed.  

 

Additionally, the injury aside, until Hakstol starts coaching to his skill set again, I really can't blame Giroux for his lack of production.  Last year, Hak made a conscious choice to give up on scoring in favor of preventing goals.  It happened about 3 weeks into the season.  It worked for a month, then the wheels came off absurdly.  

 

In Morin and Hagg we trust.  

 

Gotcha.

 

I don't know what to expect from him. His numbers have dropped four seasons in a row. That's not good. If you reach 70 points, I would be pretty happy, but expect something in the 50s or 60s. If Patrick can make the team and contribute right away, that could help Claude tremendously.

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

Gotcha.

 

I don't know what to expect from him. His numbers have dropped four seasons in a row. That's not good. If you reach 70 points, I would be pretty happy, but expect something in the 50s or 60s. If Patrick can make the team and contribute right away, that could help Claude tremendously.

 

If he'd hadn't had the surgery that we've been told takes a full year to recover from and if the entire team's production hadn't been on a similar decline, I'd be more down on him.

 

They need to shift back to a real system and not this dump and chase crap.  Hopefully now they have the defense to be able to do that.  

I don't think Hakstol's dumb.  I think he was playing it safe and I think it's killing the team's soul a little bit.  

[fanaticV3.0]

13 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

If he'd hadn't had the surgery that we've been told takes a full year to recover from and if the entire team's production hadn't been on a similar decline, I'd be more down on him.

 

They need to shift back to a real system and not this dump and chase crap.  Hopefully now they have the defense to be able to do that.  

I don't think Hakstol's dumb.  I think he was playing it safe and I think it's killing the team's soul a little bit.  

 

This isn't just about last year with him.

 

The team scored five more goals last year (219) than they had the year before (214).

[King Knut]

9 minutes ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

This isn't just about last year with him.

 

The team scored five more goals last year (219) than they had the year before (214).

 

No it's not just about last year.  That's part of my point.  It's been an overall downward trend since Berube's first year... which itself was marked with a huge drought to start the season for Claude.  

 

I think last year was mostly due to the injury, but I think the overall trend has been the systems he's been asked to buy into.

 

He still produces well on the PP, but the team in general is taking a higher percentage of lower percentage, long range shots through traffic at even strength.  This is mostly due to the system which doesn't allow the forwards to get much penetration.

 

Maybe he's age declining and maybe he's not.  My point is that until the system is changed, we'll never know and the effect will be the same regardless of who's on the ice.  My hope is that with hagg and morin out there Hak can finally institute the system he wants (the one we saw at the beginning of last year but which was exploiuted horribly by porous D and terrible goaltending) and to a lesser still slightly conservative degree after the trade deadline.

 

Hopefully with both Streit and MDZ gone, Hakstol will give more minutes to Morin and Hagg and the forwards won't need to be inside their own blue line so much.

 

 

 

 

[AJgoal]

26 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

If he'd hadn't had the surgery that we've been told takes a full year to recover from and if the entire team's production hadn't been on a similar decline, I'd be more down on him.

 

They need to shift back to a real system and not this dump and chase crap.  Hopefully now they have the defense to be able to do that.  

I don't think Hakstol's dumb.  I think he was playing it safe and I think it's killing the team's soul a little bit.  

 

The system is just not a good one at the NHL level. The Flyers took the most point shots in the league by a pretty good margin last year, because the offense is predicated on getting the shot back to the defenseman and then putting it on net from there. The goalies and defensive systems are just too good to allow those types of plays to turn into scoring chances.

 

My hope is that Giroux was staying out of the slot over the past few years because he was trying to be able to cover defensively, rather than that's how he plays now. I did see that he suffered some horrendous luck pointwise last year (it can generally be expected that forwards will get points on ~70% of goals scored while they are on the ice. Giroux was in the 50s last season), but I don't have a spot to check how his primary point totals matched up against previous seasons. If his first assist numbers are fairly stable, I'd think there's less to worry about. But the "advanced stats" sites that track those things are down at the moment.

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

Gotcha.

 

I don't know what to expect from him. His numbers have dropped four seasons in a row. That's not good. If you reach 70 points, I would be pretty happy, but expect something in the 50s or 60s. If Patrick can make the team and contribute right away, that could help Claude tremendously.

 

 First, what has lead to Claude's decline?  You can say injury related, but as you pointed out, his numbers went down 4 years in a row....THAT does not sound like injury. Has his vaunted skill sets declined?  I can't see any evidence of that....so, it's a mystery. One thing for sure, he does not bring any kind of physicality to the table, or 5 on 5 scoring, so if he's not racking up pts, he's a detriment to the team. 

 

EDIT....maybe it's mental, the stress of being captain in Philly, we certainly saw how that affected Richards. To that point, Patrick being an early force and taking some of the heat off Claude might be what the doc ordered. 

[AJgoal]

Some small part of that can be attributed to the league. Goal scoring in the NHL peaked in 2005-2006 and has gone down approximately .31 goals per game since then. That doesn't seem like a lot, but you're talking over 750 goals over that period. Over the period of time we're looking at for Claude, the league lost almost 75 goals total over the first three years, then rebounded last season. So increased focus on defense across the league could be a contributing factor. Other factors that may have had an impact are injury, increased focus from opposing defenses, increased defensive responsibility... He probably won't be a ppg+ player again, but I don't think his decline is likely to be as pronounced as it seems, or that he's incapable of rebounding to between 65 and 70 points again.

[fanaticV3.0]

21 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

No it's not just about last year.  That's part of my point.  It's been an overall downward trend since Berube's first year... which itself was marked with a huge drought to start the season for Claude.  

 

I think last year was mostly due to the injury, but I think the overall trend has been the systems he's been asked to buy into.

 

He still produces well on the PP, but the team in general is taking a higher percentage of lower percentage, long range shots through traffic at even strength.  This is mostly due to the system which doesn't allow the forwards to get much penetration.

 

Maybe he's age declining and maybe he's not.  My point is that until the system is changed, we'll never know and the effect will be the same regardless of who's on the ice.  My hope is that with hagg and morin out there Hak can finally institute the system he wants (the one we saw at the beginning of last year but which was exploiuted horribly by porous D and terrible goaltending) and to a lesser still slightly conservative degree after the trade deadline.

 

Hopefully with both Streit and MDZ gone, Hakstol will give more minutes to Morin and Hagg and the forwards won't need to be inside their own blue line so much.

 

 

 

 

 

This isn't really true. the last four years, the team has scored 219, 214, 215, and 235. There's a drop-off that first year, but the last three are almost exactly the same. During the same timeframe, Voracek had 61, 55, 81, and 62 points. That's one season where he had a significant drop off from the previous year. Simmonds had 54, 60, 50, and 60. We all know Schenn's statistics went UP virtually every year he has been in the league. Giroux is really the only player, at least amongst  the ones that account, whose numbers have been trending downward  the last four years. You keep insisting that it is a team wide problem and that it is mostly on the coaches. it's not.

[FD19372]

On 8/5/2017 at 9:45 PM, scoopyten said:

The rumor really makes zero sense for either team.

 

For Montreal, it's assumed after the Price extension, that they view themselves as contenders. So why would they trade a 30 goal, 60 point winger on a very reasonable contract(for the short term) for a prospect defenseman, albeit one with a very high ceiling? It just doesn't jibe with where they are at. Plus, they just traded a prospect defenseman who is slightly more highly regarded than Sanheim in Sergachev for Jonathan Drouin. If they were to do this rumored moved, they end up with Drouin as a younger, but more expensive replacement for Pacioretty and Sanheim in for Sergachev. Pretty lateral, and it fails to address the hole left by Markov jumping to the KHL or filling the top line C role that the Habs really need filled(unless Galchenyuk steps up).

 

For the Flyers, Pacioretty does fill a need. He's a very good all around offensive winger who can score buckets of goals. He's on a great contract and it's not a massive long term deal. The trouble is, the Flyers are not a serious contender, even if they added Pacioretty for Sanheim. They are also dealing with a surplus of forwards, and adding another-even one as good as Pacioretty-jumbles that further. The biggest issue from a Flyers standpoint is future cap management, though.

 

In two years, the Flyers will be facing new contracts for Simmonds, Konecny, Weal & Provorov. If they added Pacioretty, his contract would be up that summer as well. The Flyers could face having to dump guys or re-entering the fun times of tap dancing on the edge of the cap just as guys like Provorov, Konency and Patrick enter their prime and will need new contracts.

 

Now, if the Flyers could land Pacioretty for, say Giroux or Voracek, I'd be more likely to consider it, if only for the cap freedom moving forward. Of course, Pacioretty has also shown fewer signs of decline than those two, especially Giroux(which granted may well be injury related). But I digress.

 

As the rumor stands, I can't see it happening. The logic doesn't seem to fit on either end.

So, basically...it's an imminently done deal. 

[fanaticV3.0]

19 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 First, what has lead to Claude's decline?  You can say injury related, but as you pointed out, his numbers went down 4 years in a row....THAT does not sound like injury. Has his vaunted skill sets declined?  I can't see any evidence of that....so, it's a mystery. One thing for sure, he does not bring any kind of physicality to the table, or 5 on 5 scoring, so if he's not racking up pts, he's a detriment to the team. 

 

EDIT....maybe it's mental, the stress of being captain in Philly, we certainly saw how that affected Richards. To that point, Patrick being an early force and taking some of the heat off Claude might be what the doc ordered. 

 

I think it's fair to say that a part of last season was due to his health, however when you're on bad streak for four years there's a little more going on. Dude doesn't bring it every game and he ain't exactly a great leader.

 

This is honestly the best chance he has to provide his career.

[jammer2]

4 minutes ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

I think it's fair to say that a part of last season was due to his health, however when you're on bad streak for four years there's a little more going on. Dude doesn't bring it every game and he ain't exactly a great leader.

 

This is honestly the best chance he has to provide his career.

 

 I think even the most loyal defenders of Claude realize that he will be a secondary (but hopefully still meaningful) contributor when this teams window opens up for true contention. Having Patrick step up, take the reigns a bit, this all works towards the goal of the Flyers success not being tied to Claude's production...and allowing another leader to slowly take control. 

[fanaticV3.0]

36 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

 

 I think even the most loyal defenders of Claude realize that he will be a secondary (but hopefully still meaningful) contributor when this teams window opens up for true contention. Having Patrick step up, take the reigns a bit, this all works towards the goal of the Flyers success not being tied to Claude's production...and allowing another leader to slowly take control. 

 

He still has loyal defenders? Other than Knut?

[jammer2]

1 hour ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

He still has loyal defenders? Other than Knut?

 

 Yes, believe it or not, there is a lot of G fans out there. I certainly don't hate the guy, I wish him all the luck, HOPE and PRAY that he gets back to the 70 pt level, but I'm real doubtful on that front. Thing is, in Philly, when you sign a long term deal, you BETTER live up to your part of it, or life will be miserable. I sense Flyer fans just itching to take things out on G, and I'm not in that boat. I realize this team will not live up to expectations unless he's solid, so yeah....Go G Go!!

[King Knut]

3 hours ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

This isn't really true. the last four years, the team has scored 219, 214, 215, and 235. There's a drop-off that first year, but the last three are almost exactly the same. 

Sorry, I'll replace "Downward Trend" with "Consistent Drop Off".  Better?  The point remains the same: the three years before the drop (after Berube's first year) they averaged 242 goals / 82 games.  The three years since the drop they've averaged 216 / 82 games.  

 

3 hours ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

Giroux is really the only player, at least amongst  the ones that account, whose numbers have been trending downward  the last four years. You keep insisting that it is a team wide problem and that it is mostly on the coaches. it's not.

 

While this is technically true, it's a bit misleading and potentially invalid for several reasons.  The most obvious of which is that not all the "Players that Count" from 6 years ago are still here (Hartnell, Jagr, Briere e.g.) and amongst the others, some are just scoring a lot less (Read, e.g.)  and that scoring simply hasn't been replaced.  This goes a long way to explain the overall drop off.  

 

The other problem is that by and large the four "players that count" we're discussing have shifted their scoring so a larger percentage of it comes on the PP.   Meanwhile overall goals Against have remained the fairly consistent (though 2015-2016 they did better than they had been on average).

 

This had resulted in the majority of the "Players that Matter" dropping from even or net positive +/- to severely negative +/-.  

 

They're not playing more PP minutes than they were necessarily as these have been the guys that count for a while,  they're just scoring more there while scoring less at even strength.  

 

What does it matter?  A goal is a goal?  Well its all going into what I mean when I say there's been an overall downward trend (or consistent drop off) in offense on the entire team throughout, with the exception of the first power play unit.  

 

Giroux is trending downward (as opposed to having a consistent drop off) but that trend has tracked with the overall drop off in even strength play.  On the PP, Claude's numbers have been fairly consistent since 2011 (with an occasional outlier year in goals or assists -but never both at once).  

 

Last year was bad for him.  Terrible.  But mostly Even strength... which was terrible for everyone except for Couturier (and Voracek if you don't count goals against).  Besides last season, Claude's Even Strength numbers have been down, but not inconsistently from the rest of the team's overall drop off.  Last year was a marked anomaly as far as Giroux's Even Strength numbers, and mostly consistent with his PP numbers.  

 

Anyway,  I just think there's more to it than a simple overall downward trend caused by him grabbing a cop's arse at a bar.  

 

 

[King Knut]

5 hours ago, fanaticV3.0 said:

 

He still has loyal defenders? Other than Knut?

 

I don't know that I'm really a defender.  I'm just not a pessimist. 

A lot of Philly Fans really really need to feel terrible about things and their team and their players.  As a result, every time I take a remotely realistic tack, everyone interprets it as wide eye'd delusion. 

 

Simmonds, Schenn & Raffl were all down significantly in Even Strength Scoring last year.  

Long story short, if the team fixs their play at even strength, Claude scores between 70-80 points last year and none of us are complaining.  

 

The only top 6 guys whose production wasn't down at even strength were Voracek (whose played 9 nore games this year and whose GF/GAS ratio was in the toilet) and Couturier (who sucks on the PP).  

 

He's a major concern, but very objectively and realistically, there's plenty of reason not to feel like Claude's washed up.  

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

I'm just not a pessimist. 

A lot of Philly Fans really really need to feel terrible about things and their team and their players.  As a result, every time I take a remotely realistic tack, everyone interprets it as wide eye'd delusion. 

 

I know exactly what you mean.

 

It is like you're not allowed to have a positive outlook and if you do you have to be sippin the kool aid.

 

It just gets old and tiresome.

 

 

[AJgoal]

I'll throw this out there with regards to Giroux.

 

His assist totals over the past four years really haven't trended downward so much as dropped significantly once after 2014 and then remained fairly constant. 58 - 48 - 45 - 44. The drop from 48 to 45 or even to 44 isn't terribly significant, and are really almost margin of error type variances, especially between the last two seasons. His goal totals showed a steady decreasing trend, until his goal total plummeted this year to half of his total four years ago.

 

These types of statistical data invite a deeper look. It's important to look at these data (goals and assists) separately, as while they are added together for total points, they really are two different data sets, and evaluating only total points misses some things. The shallow yearly decreases make sense given advancing age. The two sharp drops aren't what one might typically look at as evidence of decline, rather, they are likely due to several factors combining together, or one significant factor. This could be a personal factor such as an injury that rendered part of his game ineffective (whether permanently following 2014 or temporarily this past year), or an external factor like the loss of a linemate or change in deployment.

[AJgoal]

Also, might be better to pull this over to the Giroux thread so Eklund can disappear from our front page...

[King Knut]

15 hours ago, AJgoal said:

I'll throw this out there with regards to Giroux.

 

His assist totals over the past four years really haven't trended downward so much as dropped significantly once after 2014 and then remained fairly constant. 58 - 48 - 45 - 44. The drop from 48 to 45 or even to 44 isn't terribly significant, and are really almost margin of error type variances, especially between the last two seasons. His goal totals showed a steady decreasing trend, until his goal total plummeted this year to half of his total four years ago.

 

These types of statistical data invite a deeper look. It's important to look at these data (goals and assists) separately, as while they are added together for total points, they really are two different data sets, and evaluating only total points misses some things. The shallow yearly decreases make sense given advancing age. The two sharp drops aren't what one might typically look at as evidence of decline, rather, they are likely due to several factors combining together, or one significant factor. This could be a personal factor such as an injury that rendered part of his game ineffective (whether permanently following 2014 or temporarily this past year), or an external factor like the loss of a linemate or change in deployment.

 

He stopped shooting as much in the same time frame and his goals have fallen off a cliff.