Flyers at 3/4 Mark: An Assessment

[Howie58]

I posted the following in the thread from last night's game:

 

I am glad for the win.  But...this reminded me a lot of our two playoff wins against Washington a few years ago with Neuvirth and says a lot about the team.  In so many words--we need to beat elite teams (or let's just say >.500 teams) with heroic goaltending in low-scoring affairs. We cannot win shoot-em-ups; we don't have the firepower.  We continue to outshoot our opponents (35-28) and in this case we win.  But as I have said in the past, we often do that when we lose. That makes me wonder about the quality of our shots.  Our PP is incompetent. 

 

PM gave us a good albeit flawed effort.  AMac and Toronto gave us a fluke winner.  But our scoring is concentrated in one good line. Overall, it's worth noting that we have 12 wins more than losses..  But, look at our goal differential--203 for, 202 against. That isn't awe inspiring.  My backyard Panthers are playing well of late, and their patient drafting (and astute pickups) seem to be paying off.  I am not saying the O and B isn't making progress.  But it seems we need some more work... a lot more work.  The Parent Days of one goal wins are long over.  We have stockpiled goal and D prospects.  Hopefully our forwards pan out. And we can't afford to sign more Weise types.

 

It made me think:  Where are we near the end of regular season thee of the Hakstol-Hextall combine?  Are we a better team than 15-16?  Probably.  But in some ways I think the rebuild Hexy started has been slower than expected.  On face, we have one great forward line, one great defensive line, and goaltender uncertainty with some upgrade.  Our play is better (hopefully we make the playoffs).  But I suspect there is a lot more work on the draft front, and trades/free agency hasn't netted us a "sleeper,"  allowing for cap issues and/or bad free agent deals.  

 

I open it up to the board.  

 

Howie

 

 

 

 

•  

[elmatus]

Obviously responses will be subjective, but here's where I stand:

 

Hextall inherited one of if not the absolute worst contract structure in the league when he took over. It was a hot mess owing in no small part to several years of terrible management by Homer. Upon Hex taking over the job, he immediately said as much, albeit with far more diplomacy than what I just showed.

 

I for one hated every moment of it. It made no sense, and while other teams seemed to find success year in and year out, we were left watching from the side lines as the O&B iced subpar rosters with little to no talent or a handful of way passed their prime players in some vague attempt to fluke our way to a deep run. It was garbage, and it was no fun to watch.

 

What does Hextall do? Well, he did his best to right the ship. He got rid of dead weight after dead weight. Along the way, he patched up the holes with cheap replacements who, despite being obvious stop gaps, were still much better than the players they were replacing.

 

More importantly than all of that, Hex started to build a stable of prospects that is now the envy of 29 other teams. That to me is the single biggest gamechanger. I went from really not caring about drafts, prospects, and the Phantoms, to suddenly paying attention again.

 

How did all that work out? Well, this is how I look at the current season:

 

1. I expected to miss the playoffs.

2. I expected Giroux would continue to decline in production.

3. I figured team scoring in general would be very low.

4. I had a bad feeling Ghost would turn out to be little more than a PP specialist.

5. I imagined Elliott would be a train wreck.

6. I thought Voracek would turn out to be horribly overpaid for his production.

7. I figured all these kids and rookies would be in for a learning year, where nothing seems to go right at all.

 

In short, I expected largely a write-off year, where we would get to see some kids get experience, but that's about it.

 

Instead, we got:

 

1. We're going to the playoffs. Sure, not as contenders, but making them at all is better than I figured.

2. Giroux has been elite. Hart mention elite. Top five in the league elite.

3. Couturier has become great 1C to supplement Giroux's resurgence. And that's not counting all the kids (see no.7)...

4. Ghost has managed to not only shore up his defensive gaps, he and Provo have become one of the best pairings in the league. What's the last time we've been able to say that?

5. Elliott has been a train wreck.

6. Voracek... despite my having no idea how... has lived up to his contract with regards to production. He has been near or at the top of league scoring all season long.

7. I can't even begin to explain how pleased I am with the kids. Aside from the money that Provo and Ghost have become: TK has been a revelation; Patrick overcame a slow second half to become one of the best play drivers on the team; Hagg has brought jarring hits and overall solid dman with more offensive promise than I thought he would.

 

Bonus: Lindblom seems to be fitting in nicely. Morgan Frost is looking like a million bucks, and LHV is having a fantastic season.

 

So, overall, all of my predictions turned out to be wrong but one (blargh, Elliott).

 

That's not to say there haven't been frustrations. We're still carrying some dead weight in the bottom six. Some of that is understandable. Lehtera and Filppula were the cost of doing business on trades I do feel were good. Weise... well, I dunno what to say about Weise. I never liked it. I still don't. Such is the way I guess. Hakstol continues to make coaching decisions that are questionable at best at time, though he does seem to be a solid systems coach 5v5. Our special teams are... disappointing. I really hope we see some coaching changes in this regard.

 

Do I want better? Yeah, of course. Who's going to say any different. I won't be totally happy until I see a team that is a legit contender. The difference is, I feel like this team took a huge step forward this season. Better than I expected. Better than most people expected. Acquiring Mrazek at the deadline is an indication to me that even Hex didn't expect this type of year.

 

My thoughts now: Watch out for next season... I think we're on the cusp of something great.

[OccamsRazor]

@elmatus

 

That is a lot of words to say they suck!!!

 

[brelic]

@elmatus

 

I agree with your assessment. It’s easy to alternate between excitement and frustration during the ups and downs of a season. But overall, there’s a lot more to be excited about moving forward, and I think one word for me sums it up - sustainability.

 

Hextall has basically turned a run-and-gun franchise built on emotional management into a process-driven model of sustainable development. All the way from scouting and drafting, to team and individual development through the ranks of the organization, to the development and competitiveness of an NHL squad with ready replacements that are exciting and promising. 

 

That, to me, is his biggest accomplishment. His legacy, really. 

 

Until we win a Cup, of course

 

There’s only one point I disagree with. I don’t feel Elliott has been a train wreck. I think he’s been pretty much as advertised and what I expected. He’s been great for stretches and he’s been bad in stretches - overall, though, he’s been just ok. Unfortunately, he’s the best we’ve got right now. 

 

Neuvirth has been a train wreck. 

[Cheesesteak]

What's exciting is we are finally coming to the light at the end of the tunnel so to speak as far as the outlook of the club goes...years ago Hex was stuck with horrible contracts, poor draft collateral and aging vets...Harts is gone, McDud will soon be gone etc but as that's been happening, our talent pipeline has gotten HELLA better and the young kids are steadily working their way on to the team and looking good.  BOO-Yah 

[OccamsRazor]

3 hours ago, elmatus said:

5. Elliott has been a train wreck.

 

 

Good job. 

 

However i have to say a train wreck is unfair. I say more of what was expected. 

 

Hard to call a guy who is 22-11-0-7 2.72 gaa 908% a train wreck.

 

Especially when the defense in front of him on a nightly basis is skating 2 men down (Mcudd and Manning are dressed!).

 

I'll give you mediocre, underwhelming or even a dime a dozen (maybe pushing it) but not train wreck.

 

After this year Hak staff needs to be replaced.

 

I guess you can keep Knobby since this is his 1st year....but the other two need to go otherwise good read.

 

Edit: Sorry right after i posted i read Brel's post (i should of read through) and i abree Neuvy has been the train wreck.

[RonJeremy]

@elmatus..my answer to your 4th point is, McCrimmon and Howe was our last formidable duo on the blue line. 

 

As far as the rebuild goes, every publication out there says we have the best prospects in the league..

 

We have a great first line, the makings of a very good second line. Voracek is very good, Patrick is improving by the day and should be a force by next yr. Lindblom is playing well and once he finally gets one, I think he will start to score , he is constantly around the action.

 

Our third line has one good player, Simmonds and we need two more skilled players on that line. Are NAK and Martel

the answer? Can one of either Allison, Ratccliffe, Rubstov or Frost have a big camp and make the team? If one of these guys can step in and contribute, it's a huge help.

 

 Our fourth line has two solid guys in Laughton and Raffll. I think Ghoulbourne will be a great addition to the fourth line next year. This can be a speedy physical line.

 

We have some highly skilled puck moving dmen in Myers and Sanheim and a big physical guy in Morin on the way to go along with Ghost, Provo, Haag and Gudas. The key thing lacking is overall experience and shutdown ability, but if Haag continues to improve and Morin can be a factor, then along with Provo and Gudas, we should be able to cut down our goals against next year.

 

Goaltending will again be questionable...Neuvy is the most skilled, but always hurt and too inconsistent. So he should be traded. Elliot is our # 1 guy. 

 

Now here is the tricky part, Lyon, Mrazek and Stolarz are all big question marks for various reasons. Who is gonna end up as the backup next year until Hart is ready, we will, as usual ,have average goaltending. 

 

So anyone out there who thinks Hexy is not doing a good job is outta their mind. His drafting has been good , most prospects are on or ahead of schedule. There have been no UFA's worth signing , the past 2 years..

 

Taveras is the only guy out there and I doubt we can afford him...This year we lose Filupas, Hambugler and Reads contract and after next year we lose Lethera and can buy out McDonald. So by then we will have a very clear picture of the skills of our young players and what other additions might be needed via FA.

[Howie58]

Good stuff!  I share the optimism.  One thing that's really improved is mobility, particularly getting the puck out of our own zone.  

The D corps should work out.  Will the forwards pan out?  I hope so.  

 

I agree with Ron J that goal is perhaps the biggest question.  My hope/expectation is that Neuvy is done in the O and B uniform. 

 

My one broad question is drafting a lethal, Laine type forward.  Can we do it?  There is part of me that says we just don't seem to draft these types.  

[RonJeremy]

I really liked Keifer Bellows as the pure sniper we needed, but we took Rubstov 

..I hope we don't regret that,.

[ruxpin]

8 hours ago, Howie58 said:

But in some ways I think the rebuild Hexy started has been slower than expected

 

I'm sorry, but it's not slower than expected.  Anyone expecting faster than this simply wasn't and isn't paying attention.  We're actually ahead of schedule, if anything.   I really don't get this line of thinking.

8 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Are we a better team than 15-16?  Probably

 

Most assuredly.

[ruxpin]

7 hours ago, elmatus said:

1. We're going to the playoffs. Sure, not as contenders, but making them at all is better than I figured.

2. Giroux has been elite. Hart mention elite. Top five in the league elite.

3. Couturier has become great 1C to supplement Giroux's resurgence. And that's not counting all the kids (see no.7)...

4. Ghost has managed to not only shore up his defensive gaps, he and Provo have become one of the best pairings in the league. What's the last time we've been able to say that?

5. Elliott has been a train wreck.

6. Voracek... despite my having no idea how... has lived up to his contract with regards to production. He has been near or at the top of league scoring all season long.

7. I can't even begin to explain how pleased I am with the kids. Aside from the money that Provo and Ghost have become: TK has been a revelation; Patrick overcame a slow second half to become one of the best play drivers on the team; Hagg has brought jarring hits and overall solid dman with more offensive promise than I thought he would.

 

 

This is the reality of it.    Dead on assessment and post.   Thank you.

[ruxpin]

23 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

I really liked Keifer Bellows as the pure sniper we needed, but we took Rubstov 

..I hope we don't regret that,.

 

I dont think we'll regret Rubstov, but we may regret lack of a Bellows type.   At some point we really do need to add a guy that can just fire the puck and have who scores fairly consistently.   It's been awhile since we've had that and it could really open the ice up for some of the passers on the team.

[OccamsRazor]

7 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Can we do it?

 

 

I don't think the Flyers will suck enough from here on out to get close enough to draft those types. They usually don't slide back to were the Flyers draft unless they are flawed.

 

However i think the Flyers have a sniper/goal scorer who will get signed to an ELC after this year in Wade Allison. Not say he will be just like Laine but he is almost 6-3 210 right now at 20. Yet he will need a year of two of seasoning in the AHL.

 

His upside is huge i think and has some pretty impressive speed coming down the wing. Time will tell.

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

I really liked Keifer Bellows as the pure sniper we needed, but we took Rubstov 

..I hope we don't regret that,.

 

 

Yeah but Bellows was the #19 pick. Ruby was the #22. It cost to move up.

 

So you trade up to get Bellows (who by the way still hasn't proven anything) you might not of had the pick to take Hart in the 2nd.

 

So you think Bellows is worth Rubtsov and Hart???

 

I say hell no!

[brelic]

9 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Good stuff!  I share the optimism.  One thing that's really improved is mobility, particularly getting the puck out of our own zone.  

The D corps should work out.  Will the forwards pan out?  I hope so.  

 

I agree with Ron J that goal is perhaps the biggest question.  My hope/expectation is that Neuvy is done in the O and B uniform. 

 

My one broad question is drafting a lethal, Laine type forward.  Can we do it?  There is part of me that says we just don't seem to draft these types.  

 

Like @OccamsRazor mentioned, these guys are usually not available where we draft. 

 

Will Nolan Patrick be a 30 goal scorer? He certainly looks like he could be. TK? I will say definitely. 

 

Lindblom? He has that potential - seems to have a real nose for the net.

 

But, in general, elite goal scorers are hard to find.

 

Of the 14 guys in the league with 30 or more goals right now, 10 of them were either 1st or 2nd overall. Hopefully Coots joins the 30 goal club tonight, and then he will be one of the 5 players outside the top 2 picks to score 30.

 

 

[elmatus]

12 hours ago, brelic said:

Neuvirth has been a train wreck. 

 

You say that, but he has a better SV% than Elliott. Among goalies with 20+ GP, Elliott is ranked 36, Neuvirth sits at 23. Sure, you could say Neuvirth is worse because he can't stay healthy, but Elliott isn't playing either... So for this year at least, that point seems a wash to me. 

 

Did Elliott get the tougher starts? I'm not sure I care much what starts he got when he's sitting at 36th in SV%. I doubt he played the Lightning 41 times. And not to beat a dead horse, but our defensive stats -- with the exception of the PK -- are very very good. We're squarely in the middle of the pack in PIMs per game, so he hasn't had so many more PKs than most of those other 35 goalies.

 

Bottom line: While there are always other factors, there's a good chance we would have won more games if Neuvirth had the 41 starts and Elliott just 20. That's not saying Neuvirth is a great option either, but if I am to choose just one to give the train wreck title... 

 

12 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

However i have to say a train wreck is unfair. I say more of what was expected. 

 

Hard to call a guy who is 22-11-0-7 2.72 gaa 908% a train wreck.

 

Yeah, this makes sense to me. I expected Elliott to be bad. He's been bad. In that sense, maybe train wreck isn't the term to use. It feels a bit like a difference in semantics, but fair enough.

[murraycraven]

16 hours ago, elmatus said:

Obviously responses will be subjective, but here's where I stand:

 

Hextall inherited one of if not the absolute worst contract structure in the league when he took over. It was a hot mess owing in no small part to several years of terrible management by Homer. Upon Hex taking over the job, he immediately said as much, albeit with far more diplomacy than what I just showed.

 

I for one hated every moment of it. It made no sense, and while other teams seemed to find success year in and year out, we were left watching from the side lines as the O&B iced subpar rosters with little to no talent or a handful of way passed their prime players in some vague attempt to fluke our way to a deep run. It was garbage, and it was no fun to watch.

 

What does Hextall do? Well, he did his best to right the ship. He got rid of dead weight after dead weight. Along the way, he patched up the holes with cheap replacements who, despite being obvious stop gaps, were still much better than the players they were replacing.

 

More importantly than all of that, Hex started to build a stable of prospects that is now the envy of 29 other teams. That to me is the single biggest gamechanger. I went from really not caring about drafts, prospects, and the Phantoms, to suddenly paying attention again.

 

How did all that work out? Well, this is how I look at the current season:

 

1. I expected to miss the playoffs.

2. I expected Giroux would continue to decline in production.

3. I figured team scoring in general would be very low.

4. I had a bad feeling Ghost would turn out to be little more than a PP specialist.

5. I imagined Elliott would be a train wreck.

6. I thought Voracek would turn out to be horribly overpaid for his production.

7. I figured all these kids and rookies would be in for a learning year, where nothing seems to go right at all.

 

In short, I expected largely a write-off year, where we would get to see some kids get experience, but that's about it.

 

Instead, we got:

 

1. We're going to the playoffs. Sure, not as contenders, but making them at all is better than I figured.

2. Giroux has been elite. Hart mention elite. Top five in the league elite.

3. Couturier has become great 1C to supplement Giroux's resurgence. And that's not counting all the kids (see no.7)...

4. Ghost has managed to not only shore up his defensive gaps, he and Provo have become one of the best pairings in the league. What's the last time we've been able to say that?

5. Elliott has been a train wreck.

6. Voracek... despite my having no idea how... has lived up to his contract with regards to production. He has been near or at the top of league scoring all season long.

7. I can't even begin to explain how pleased I am with the kids. Aside from the money that Provo and Ghost have become: TK has been a revelation; Patrick overcame a slow second half to become one of the best play drivers on the team; Hagg has brought jarring hits and overall solid dman with more offensive promise than I thought he would.

 

Bonus: Lindblom seems to be fitting in nicely. Morgan Frost is looking like a million bucks, and LHV is having a fantastic season.

 

So, overall, all of my predictions turned out to be wrong but one (blargh, Elliott).

 

That's not to say there haven't been frustrations. We're still carrying some dead weight in the bottom six. Some of that is understandable. Lehtera and Filppula were the cost of doing business on trades I do feel were good. Weise... well, I dunno what to say about Weise. I never liked it. I still don't. Such is the way I guess. Hakstol continues to make coaching decisions that are questionable at best at time, though he does seem to be a solid systems coach 5v5. Our special teams are... disappointing. I really hope we see some coaching changes in this regard.

 

Do I want better? Yeah, of course. Who's going to say any different. I won't be totally happy until I see a team that is a legit contender. The difference is, I feel like this team took a huge step forward this season. Better than I expected. Better than most people expected. Acquiring Mrazek at the deadline is an indication to me that even Hex didn't expect this type of year.

 

My thoughts now: Watch out for next season... I think we're on the cusp of something great.

 

 

 

spot on good sir.... could not have said it any better.

[mojo1917]

9 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

I really liked Keifer Bellows as the pure sniper we needed, but we took Rubstov 

..I hope we don't regret that,.

I think the draft philosophy of taking the best player available has played into...

 

12 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

As far as the rebuild goes, every publication out there says we have the best prospects in the league..

Rubstov was a young guy when we drafted him. he's played well and driven play at a point per game plus pace when he's been healthy with Chicoutimi, he's just a shade under that this year, he's been a fixture on the Russian U20 team for 3 years.

 

I think having a guy like Rubstov as "depth" speaks well for being able to perhaps bring in a "true sniper" down the road, I don't know that I think drafting German will be regrettable... until he gets traded to an eventual cup winning team. 

[OccamsRazor]

14 minutes ago, elmatus said:

You say that, but he has a better SV% than Elliott.

 

It comes down to more than numbers.

 

He had a chance to take hold of the #1 spot once again when Elliott got hurt and then like clock work he gets hurt.

 

It has plagued him his whole career and i can't see it getting better as he gets older....he is a train wreck if there ever was one and if he wasn't they wouldn't have gone out and got Mrazek i think Ron has seen enough.

 

Buh bye Neuvy may the force be with you.

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

I acknowledge we are typically not a top-8 or 10 draft spot. And we haven't had six years or whatever of non-playoff participation ala Edmonton.  That said, I wonder if our DNA leads to picks in which physical prowess/toughness outweighs speed and/or "sharpshooting?"  

 

To his credit, Hexy has stockpiled goaltenders in the system.  I hope one of them pans out soon.  Elliott may not be such a great "father figure" and as I've said before, i don't think Neuvy can or should be around next year. 

 

 

[RJ8812]

9 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

I really liked Keifer Bellows as the pure sniper we needed, but we took Rubstov 

..I hope we don't regret that,.

Meh. Can't always hit a home run in the draft. We are still one of the better drafting teams in the league. 

[RonJeremy]

@OccamsRazor we actually traded down in that draft, we could have taken Bellows.

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

@OccamsRazor we actually traded down in that draft, we could have taken Bellows.

 

Yeah they got Ruby and Laberge for trading back.

 

Obviously the Flyers liked Ruby more than Bellows and another young center to boot.

 

As i said also Bellows hasn't done anything yet he is in juniors like the Ruby and Laberge still.

 

Too early still to claim anyone a winner/loser in that.

 

For the record i'm ok with it.

[mojo1917]

Was thinking about Rubstov and how we traded back and took him. Took a look at who was taken as we slid back.

 

Logan Stanley. Dman.  Don’t know much but Flyers were always going forward.

 

keiffer bellows and Cholowski. See them both in Portland. Bellows can’t skate to get his own shot off and Cholowski can’t play D. ( not good for a defenseman).  

 

Gauthier is struggling in the Ahl.

@RonJeremy

this is a quote from @Claude Monetwho has seen Bellows, I'm not here for guys who can't skate.

 

[elmatus]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

It comes down to more than numbers.

 

He had a chance to take hold of the #1 spot once again when Elliott got hurt and then like clock work he gets hurt.

 

It has plagued him his whole career and i can't see it getting better as he gets older....he is a train wreck if there ever was one and if he wasn't they wouldn't have gone out and got Mrazek i think Ron has seen enough.

 

Buh bye Neuvy may the force be with you.

 

Yeah, for sure. Neuvy clearly isn't the guy either. In both cases, the season was destined to be tinged with subpar goaltending.

 

That said, it goes to show how great the team has been. While they have had bad stretches, they've also had stellar runs, and that despite very weak goaltending all season long. That says something about the talent and skill we currently have imo.