brelic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Found this twitter poll asking if there was a 2015 redraft, in which order would you pick Provorov, Werenski, and Hanifin? The original order - 5. Hanifin 7. Provorov 8. Werenski A silly little poll, but fun on a Tuesday morning. The posts are hilarious! So, a few things I've noticed. Many (most?) would pick Provorov, as he is the best all-around defender. And just about everyone would stay away from Hanifin - they would drop him lower in the draft class. The other thing is that those who put Werenski above Provorov cite offensive numbers as the reason. Werenski had a monster rookie season, but he has one fewer point than Ivan this year. Plus, he plays with Seth Jones. In the end, though, we already have a MUCH better version of Werenski in Ghost. His offensive metrics blow them all away. So, really, over time the better comparison might be Jones/Werenski vs. Ghost/Provorov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, brelic said: Found this twitter poll asking if there was a 2015 redraft, in which order would you pick Provorov, Werenski, and Hanifin? The original order - 5. Hanifin 7. Provorov 8. Werenski A silly little poll, but fun on a Tuesday morning. The posts are hilarious! So, a few things I've noticed. Many (most?) would pick Provorov, as he is the best all-around defender. And just about everyone would stay away from Hanifin - they would drop him lower in the draft class. The other thing is that those who put Werenski above Provorov cite offensive numbers as the reason. Werenski had a monster rookie season, but he has one fewer point than Ivan this year. Plus, he plays with Seth Jones. Werenski also plays on the top power play in Columbus. That's not a small thing when it comes to offensive production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 To follow up on that, Werenski had 47 points (11g, 36a) last year, 21 (4g, 17a) on the top power play unit. Provorov had 30 (6g, 24a), 5 (all assists) on the 2nd power play unit, behind Gostisbehere who everyone knows he's not going to supplant. So at all other strengths, Werenski had all of 1 more point in four fewer games. This year, Provorov has 34 points (13 g, 21a), again with 5 on the 2nd power play (2g, 3a), while Werenski has been replaced on the top unit by Jones and has 33 points (14g, 19a) with 10 (3g, 7a) on the power play - again, in 4 fewer games. Werenski's offensive production compared to Provorov's is overblown. It is higher, but it's such a minor variance as to be statistically insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 #1 Provorov #2 Werenski #3 Chabot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I think anyone who doesn't go Provo, Werenski, Hanifin hasn't been paying attention... I like Werenski. He's going to be a staple dman in Columbus for years, and that's great. But Provo is quickly becoming the very definition of elite two-way defense, and that's far more valuable. The two have the same amount of points this year, which I expect will be common for most of their careers. Provo is money on the defensive side, which makes him the better option without doubt in my mind. As far as Hanifin goes, sometimes draft predictions have varying results. I expect he will become a good NHL defenseman, but I doubt he'll be regarded as highly as the other two. That's in part because frankly he shouldn't have been drafted so high, and in part because Provo and Werenski are both very very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 When all three are good offensively, I'll take the guy who's best defensively...and that's Provorov. There's a good chance he ends up being the best defenceman the Flyers ever drafted. And Ghost might not be far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 10 hours ago, flyercanuck said: When all three are good offensively, I'll take the guy who's best defensively...and that's Provorov. There's a good chance he ends up being the best defenceman the Flyers ever drafted. And Ghost might not be far behind. Are you saying that Werenski isn't as good defensively as Provorov? Might that be because the hype machine in Philly is louder than Columbus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 hours ago, hobie said: Are you saying that Werenski isn't as good defensively as Provorov? Might that be because the hype machine in Philly is louder than Columbus? Defensively? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 hours ago, hobie said: Are you saying that Werenski isn't as good defensively as Provorov? Might that be because the hype machine in Philly is louder than Columbus? He is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 hours ago, hobie said: Are you saying that Werenski isn't as good defensively as Provorov? Might that be because the hype machine in Philly is louder than Columbus? It has nothing to do with hype. Provo is not hyped at all. It's not like he's billed as the face of the league or even of the team. Most hockey fans who are not Flyers fans are only now starting to hear about the guy. Werenski is in a similar position. I don't think either of them have been hyped up. They will be in coming years, simply because they're both very good. So, no. It's not hype or even bias. Provo is better defensively. Put another way, Provo is an anchor that a defensive corps can be built around. Werenski is not quite that, but he's definitely a top pairing dman. Honestly Jones is likely a better comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I remember the draft and both were highly hyped. However I'm not challenging whether or not Provo is good defensively, I simply like it when someone asserts something like the superiority of one player to another that they provide foundation for their conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sekkes85 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Provorov has been an amazing addition but really needs to work on the turnovers. I'd still put him ahead though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 As a Leaf fan I draw conclusions about Leaf players because I see them all the time but comparing them to players on other teams who I rarely watch and really know little about would simply be a bias and have little value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, hobie said: I remember the draft and both were highly hyped. However I'm not challenging whether or not Provo is good defensively, I simply like it when someone asserts something like the superiority of one player to another that they provide foundation for their conclusion. Several metrics are in the original tweet. On the defensive metrics, Provorov is clearly ahead of the others - shot suppression, scoring chance suppression/60 and high danger scoring chances allowed/60, quality of competition faced, zone starts (Provorov is in the 25th percentile for offensive zone starts, while Werenski is at 84th percentile.... not sure how that's measured, but in raw numbers Provorov has 46% OZ starts vs 60% for Werenski). There's also quality of partner - Of Provorov's 2676 5v5 mins since the start of last season: 43.5% w/ MacDonald 24.6% w/ Ghost 10.0% w/ Streit 9.0% w/ Hagg 5.3% w/ Manning Of Werenski's 2531 5v5 minutes over the same span: 86.4% w/ Seth Jones 6.7% w/ Savard When it comes to offensive production, Werenski is clearly ahead of Provorov and Hanifin. Quote Jay @jaylike Mar 19 More I really fell down a rabbit hole. On-ice power play Goals For and Expected Goals For per sixty minutes, last two seasons: Gostisbehere - 8.93 GF/60, 10.05 xGF/60 Werenski - 7.30 GF/60, 7.18 xGF/60 Seth Jones - 5.93 GF/60, 6.44 xGF/60 Provorov - 3.14 GF/60 - 4.87 xGF/60 Provorov is clearly lagging behind both Werenski and Hanifin... However, what those numbers show is that we already have a better version of Werenski in Gostisbehere. Maybe that won't persist over their careers, but it is that way now, so a Provorov / Ghost pairing is better than Werenski / Ghost, or Hanifin / Ghost, for example, in terms of overall balance and two-way play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, sekkes85 said: Provorov has been an amazing addition but really needs to work on the turnovers. I'd still put him ahead though. They're something else, aren't they? As in, his turnovers are definitely the worst on the team in terms of wtf factor. Like his brain just turns off for like a microsecond. The one in OT where he collects the puck behind the net and just throws it blindly up the boards, as if they were on the PK or still 5v5 play. No Flyer in sight. Brutal turnover. Even the commentators were scrambling to explain what just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Good stats, there's something to base a comparison argument on. Now the question is who plays with Provo beyond his direct d-man partner e.g. does he play with the defensive line against the opposition's best, does he play while the 1st line is on? Same for Werenski? I know your stats hold great meaning to many but for me it comes down to, does my team score more than the opposition, if so my team will win. TO had a line of JVR/Bozak/Marner and any d pairing that played with them were going to have trouble reflecting positively on any metric. 5v5 that line was brutal but those forwards are golden when hot and pretty well always on the PP. They were broken up, thank God, and TO's and probably any d-man's stats who now plays with them have improved. That Bozak line scored more than the opposition because of the PP but the difference was marginal, it's better now even tho a high scoring winger was taken off the line. For me it's far too complicated to base comparisons on stats alone but it's a great start point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, hobie said: Now the question is who plays with Provo beyond his direct d-man partner e.g. does he play with the defensive line against the opposition's best, does he play while the 1st line is on? Same for Werenski? I'm not entirely sure, but Provo averages over 24:00 TOI and Ghost is around 23:00, I believe. SO they're clearly with all the forward lines. I'm not sure where to get the stats for TOI with each player. Anyone? 15 minutes ago, hobie said: I know your stats hold great meaning to many but for me it comes down to, does my team score more than the opposition, if so my team will win. TO had a line of JVR/Bozak/Marner and any d pairing that played with them were going to have trouble reflecting positively on any metric. 5v5 that line was brutal but those forwards are golden when hot and pretty well always on the PP. They were broken up, thank God, and TO's and probably any d-man's stats who now plays with them have improved. That Bozak line scored more than the opposition because of the PP but the difference was marginal, it's better now even tho a high scoring winger was taken off the line. For me it's far too complicated to base comparisons on stats alone but it's a great start point. The short answer is no. The Flyers do not score more goals than the other team when Provorov is on the ice. For this year - Provorov, 82 GF, 95 GA (8 PPGF, 34 PPGA) Gostisbehere, 102 GF, 53 GA (43 PPGF, 0 PPGA) Werenski, 80 GF, 64 GA, (15 PPGF, 4 PPGA) Adjusted to eliminate PP goals for and against - Provorov, 74 GF, 61 GA Gostisbehere, 59 GF, 53 GA Werenski, 65 GF, 60 GA So at even strength, Provorov provides the most offense and the best differential - and the other guys don't kill penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, brelic said: I' So at even strength, Provorov provides the most offense and the best differential - and the other guys don't kill penalties. Says a lot about who's better defensively. Offensively, point-wise, they're about neck and neck this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Yeah one guy has a vezina goalie and the other has a collection of misfit goalies behind him... ....has to skew the numbers some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Stats never tell the whole story, during the 2015 draft Provo was who I wanted TO to draft, Babs wanted Hanifin. We ended up with Marner, most of the Leaf fans wanted a big high scoring center, Strome, ah well TO might survive. Werenski wasn't really on most fan's radar. When you view stats you have to wonder where they came from to determine their accuracy and to give you an idea TSN has a whole pile of stats on players like Hainsey for TO who according to them has 143 shot blocks this year. Hainsey plays all 2 minutes of the majority of TO's PKs and he blocks shots in all situations so in reality his number of shot blocks should be double this figure if not more. I figure that TSN doesn't compile these stats but gets them from an NHL sanctioned source, so what's up with that. Who compiles how much time Provo plays with Ghost or any other Philly d, who provides the Corsi info, the Fenwick info, the PDO info and how reliable is that info. If an NHL sanctioned source can be that wrong, how wrong can these other sources be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pucked in the head Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 That's why I don't bother with all that stuff , bottom line what matters are the standings you can turn blue in the face tracking all that other stuff and who did what ,when just watch the game and try not to read into all that stuff (unless you're a serious gambler) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, hobie said: Stats never tell the whole story, during the 2015 draft Provo was who I wanted TO to draft, Babs wanted Hanifin. We ended up with Marner, most of the Leaf fans wanted a big high scoring center, Strome, ah well TO might survive. Werenski wasn't really on most fan's radar. When you view stats you have to wonder where they came from to determine their accuracy and to give you an idea TSN has a whole pile of stats on players like Hainsey for TO who according to them has 143 shot blocks this year. Hainsey plays all 2 minutes of the majority of TO's PKs and he blocks shots in all situations so in reality his number of shot blocks should be double this figure if not more. I figure that TSN doesn't compile these stats but gets them from an NHL sanctioned source, so what's up with that. Who compiles how much time Provo plays with Ghost or any other Philly d, who provides the Corsi info, the Fenwick info, the PDO info and how reliable is that info. If an NHL sanctioned source can be that wrong, how wrong can these other sources be? I’m not sure what you’re getting at. I tried to provide the best stats I could find, and be objective about the entire debate. The source of ALL statistics can be questioned. If you have another source you’d like to bring forward, I’m open. Random and non-random error is not something I’m privy to when it comes to NHL statistics. I go with the best I can find. If they’re skewed for one player, they’re generally skewed for every player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, Pucked in the head said: That's why I don't bother with all that stuff , bottom line what matters are the standings you can turn blue in the face tracking all that other stuff and who did what ,when just watch the game and try not to read into all that stuff (unless you're a serious gambler) I still believe in +/- as a simple guide to how well a player is doing on any team. It's probably no more reliable than any other stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, hobie said: I still believe in +/- as a simple guide to how well a player is doing on any team. It's probably no more reliable than any other stat. The */- stat really proves nothing. Horrible stat. I still believe in tea leaves as a great measure of which player is better. Let's use those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, brelic said: I’m not sure what you’re getting at. I tried to provide the best stats I could find, and be objective about the entire debate. The source of ALL statistics can be questioned. If you have another source you’d like to bring forward, I’m open. Random and non-random error is not something I’m privy to when it comes to NHL statistics. I go with the best I can find. If they’re skewed for one player, they’re generally skewed for every player. Perhaps but if I'm a NYR fan then my Rangers might be skewed better. The NHL can't even properly figure out what is goalie interference. I not questioning your stats just the source. Do you know who is the source, is it maybe a bunch of 16 year olds after school? Who has the time to figure all this out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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