Bring Tavares to Philly

[brelic]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Yeah, draft day is June 22 and free agency doesn't begin until July 1, so it has to be next year.

 

i don't know, though.   He was making $4.5M this past year ($3.5M cap hit).  Signing him off RFA would probably realistically put him in the $5.8M-$7.8M range, right?   I suppose $5.5M-$5.8M  might do it, but he'll be 26 so it's time to get the money he's going to get.   Plus, Ottawa will probably be willing/able to go that range if they're serious about icing an NHL team.   

 

So, assuming it's $5.8M-$7.8M range (thanks @brelic!), it's a 1st, 2nd, 3rd for Stone.    So, if we really want Stone, doesn't trading make more sense?  I have a hard time believing Hextall would give up that much pickage.   But he MIGHT, give up a player + pick + prospect or player + (pick OR prospect).   

 

All of this is moot, of course, because we're content with icing Weis and Lehtera and Weal.

 

It's hard to say what a team will do and what they value.

 

If, say, Ghost was an RFA, and a team offered him $6.5M-$7M. Would you match or take the picks? 

 

What about TK? 

 

 

[ruxpin]

23 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

It's hard to say what a team will do and what they value.

 

If, say, Ghost was an RFA, and a team offered him $6.5M-$7M. Would you match or take the picks? 

 

What about TK? 

 

 

 

Exactly.

 

And no, I would match in your examples.

 

It IS hard to say what a team would do.  Sometimes even hard when talking about your own team.  But track record shows Hextall wouldn't do this.  Mixture of "it's not part of the plan" and possibly what was stated above about Holmgren ticking people off.   

 

For Ottawa, all we have is track record to go by, especially recently.  They're cheap, and not very bright.  When they did open their wallet (Bobby Ryan), it didn't turn out well.   So, predilection toward cheap and burn victim when they weren't.  Plus, they make goofy moves and are seemingly in a rebuild.  If it were me, Stone, Karlsson, and Hoffman wouldn't go anywhere.   That's what I would attempt to build around.  They're 25, 27, and 28 respectively.    But from the sounds of it, they were actively shopping Karlsson (or at least taking offers), so they're already in Clown territory.   So, I'm not sure what they would do if presented with a $7M offer sheet for Stone.   Maybe they counter and make their life difficult.  Maybe they take the picks.    I would match.

[brelic]

24 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Exactly.

 

And no, I would match in your examples.

 

It IS hard to say what a team would do.  Sometimes even hard when talking about your own team.  But track record shows Hextall wouldn't do this.  Mixture of "it's not part of the plan" and possibly what was stated above about Holmgren ticking people off.   

 

For Ottawa, all we have is track record to go by, especially recently.  They're cheap, and not very bright.  When they did open their wallet (Bobby Ryan), it didn't turn out well.   So, predilection toward cheap and burn victim when they weren't.  Plus, they make goofy moves and are seemingly in a rebuild.  If it were me, Stone, Karlsson, and Hoffman wouldn't go anywhere.   That's what I would attempt to build around.  They're 25, 27, and 28 respectively.    But from the sounds of it, they were actively shopping Karlsson (or at least taking offers), so they're already in Clown territory.   So, I'm not sure what they would do if presented with a $7M offer sheet for Stone.   Maybe they counter and make their life difficult.  Maybe they take the picks.    I would match.

 

The danger with that is if the Flyers ended up with Stone for $7M, that very quickly sets a benchmark for Patrick, TK, etc. It's  not good for salary balance. 

 

FWIW, that's why GMs hate offer sheets from what I've read. It's not the 'poaching' aspect, it's that it drives up the salaries for what would otherwise be cost-controlled assets. 

[elmatus]

2 hours ago, brelic said:

 

It's hard to say what a team will do and what they value.

 

If, say, Ghost was an RFA, and a team offered him $6.5M-$7M. Would you match or take the picks? 

 

What about TK? 

 

 

 

Known quantity > unknown quantity

 

I'm not a garbage NHL GM though, so what I do I know?

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, brelic said:

 

The danger with that is if the Flyers ended up with Stone for $7M, that very quickly sets a benchmark for Patrick, TK, etc. It's  not good for salary balance. 

 

FWIW, that's why GMs hate offer sheets from what I've read. It's not the 'poaching' aspect, it's that it drives up the salaries for what would otherwise be cost-controlled assets. 

 

I agree.  Plus, I think $7M is too much for Stone on its face.   Just throwing it out there for example sake.    I do think he likely gets in the $5.5 - $6M range, though.   More on the open market, but he's an RFA so that's not relevant.

[brelic]

1 hour ago, elmatus said:

 

Known quantity > unknown quantity

 

I'm not a garbage NHL GM though, so what I do I know?

 

Not always. I think it depends on a lot of factors, like where the team is at and what the GM's plans / performance targets / expectations are.

 

Also, if your owner is cheap, that changes things

 

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, brelic said:

 

Not always. I think it depends on a lot of factors, like where the team is at and what the GM's plans / performance targets / expectations are.

 

Also, if your owner is cheap, that changes things

 

 

Has Ottawa talked about going into a full rebuild mode? If so, then I could see moving Stone for picks I suppose. If that isn't the plan though, I doubt they'll trade him. He's arguably their best forward over the last handful of years. That's not to say he's amazing by any stretch, but he is a productive player. They don't have many of those as it stands.

 

Will Karlsson be traded? That would be the big signal that Ottawa is going into a rebuild. If Karlsson moves, I would expect Stone to move as well. I'm not sure it's worth moving Stone otherwise.

 

Of course, they're too cheap to really do much either way. I'm also - again - not a garbage NHL GM, so there's no telling really. I'm not sure building a winning strategy is Ottawa's MO. They seem content to just mess around on hockey rinks season in and season out.

 

Side note: I'm very happy I'm not a Sens fan.

[OccamsRazor]

I'm cool if they don't offer sheet him in fact i don't think that is what Ron wants to start with all his kids he will have coming up soon.

 

Does he want to starts others from poaching his guys making it hard to sign them???

 

I think not.

 

That is a Clarke and Homer move.

 

Not Ron's he doesn't conduct business like that.

[intheslot]

Two first round picks for Karlsson,

 What else would it take .

 

[elmatus]

15 hours ago, intheslot said:

Two first round picks for Karlsson,

 What else would it take .

 

 

Well, if the Sens are going into a rebuild, they'd be looking for promising young players and picks. Given the caliber of player Karlsson is, that would be a huge price likely involving a very high potential young player and two first round picks. In our case, we're probably talking someone like Patrick.

 

All in all, there's no way I would want Karlsson on this team right now. No offense to him. He's very obviously a special player and will be for years, but we have a solid up and coming d-corp of our own. We don't have nearly as many 2nd overall, high potential forwards.

[King Knut]

21 hours ago, elmatus said:

 

Has Ottawa talked about going into a full rebuild mode? If so, then I could see moving Stone for picks I suppose. If that isn't the plan though, I doubt they'll trade him. He's arguably their best forward over the last handful of years. That's not to say he's amazing by any stretch, but he is a productive player. They don't have many of those as it stands.

 

Will Karlsson be traded? That would be the big signal that Ottawa is going into a rebuild. If Karlsson moves, I would expect Stone to move as well. I'm not sure it's worth moving Stone otherwise.

 

Of course, they're too cheap to really do much either way. I'm also - again - not a garbage NHL GM, so there's no telling really. I'm not sure building a winning strategy is Ottawa's MO. They seem content to just mess around on hockey rinks season in and season out.

 

Side note: I'm very happy I'm not a Sens fan.

 

We have two first round picks this year and our system is already stacked with so many prospects, most wont' ever get a chance to prove what they're worth at an NHL level.  I'm willing to bet Hextall will be trying to package those picks to at least go up in the draft and at worse, trade one or both to another team for an additional player.  Most likely a center, but trading a pick for Stone is still a good plan. 

 

I believe in my heart that there is NO WAY Hextall is going to offer sheet anyone after what happened to (especially) Homer but also Clarke in the wake of their offer sheet debacles.   He may utilize those picks and he may utilize Gudas or Hagg, but I highly doubt he's going to offer sheet any RFAs.  

[King Knut]

29 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

Well, if the Sens are going into a rebuild, they'd be looking for promising young players and picks. Given the caliber of player Karlsson is, that would be a huge price likely involving a very high potential young player and two first round picks. In our case, we're probably talking someone like Patrick.

 

All in all, there's no way I would want Karlsson on this team right now. No offense to him. He's very obviously a special player and will be for years, but we have a solid up and coming d-corp of our own. We don't have nearly as many 2nd overall, high potential forwards.

 

I love our D and I believe in our prospects more than most, but if this team wants to win a cup, bringing in Karlsson would sure be a big step in that direction.   He's only 2 years older than Ghost.  

 

Believe me, I don't want to want him and I WANT to say that he's not necessary (he isn't) but if I'm being completely honest, there's no scenario in which adding him to this team doesn't give them HUGE strides towards the next level.  There isn't a player in the league like him.  

 

HOWEVER, if I'm the GM (and maybe I'm a dumb one, I don't know) I just don' like investing so much in one player.  Players get hurt (as we've seen).  If you invest 1/7 of your team's cap room into one guy and he gets hurt...  

 

In short, I'd trade for or sign Karlsson in a heartbeat at $7 million... but this guys' going to break the $10 level.  He'd almost be worth it if we could guarantee he'd be healthy for 50% of the season and the playoffs... but you can't.  He doesn't even really have a bad track record... you just can't guarantee that for anyone.  

 

If the Flyers didn't have Ghost, Provo, Sanheim, Morin and Myers playing great already or chomping at the bit, it would be a no brainer.  

[King Knut]

18 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

I'm cool if they don't offer sheet him in fact i don't think that is what Ron wants to start with all his kids he will have coming up soon.

 

Does he want to starts others from poaching his guys making it hard to sign them???

 

I think not.

 

That is a Clarke and Homer move.

 

Not Ron's he doesn't conduct business like that.

 

Ron's got this job specifically because no one would deal seriously with Homer after the Weber incident and Homer either got fleeced in deals or had to go with signing rejected players like MDZ and VCL... and he even had to overpay them. 

 

If he offer sheets someone, it's only with the express written and publicized consent of the team holding his rights becasue they specifically want the draft picks and didn't want to bother filing the paperwork on a trade.

[elmatus]

36 minutes ago, King Knut said:

In short, I'd trade for or sign Karlsson in a heartbeat at $7 million... but this guys' going to break the $10 level.  He'd almost be worth it if we could guarantee he'd be healthy for 50% of the season and the playoffs... but you can't.  He doesn't even really have a bad track record... you just can't guarantee that for anyone.  

 

If the Flyers didn't have Ghost, Provo, Sanheim, Morin and Myers playing great already or chomping at the bit, it would be a no brainer.  

 

This is exactly my thought as well.

 

The cost for Karlsson would be two-fold: it would cost a ton just to get him, and he would be getting a massive paycheck to boot.

 

Is he worth $10 million? It’s possible. He is a fantastic player for sure. Much like our Tavares conversation, Karlsson is a guy who makes your team remarkably better immediately. 

 

The original question was what would it take to pry him from Ottawa in the first place. My best guess from us would be two firsts and one of our most talented youngsters. And by that i mean probably Patrick or Provo. That combined with the cost of signing Karlsson down the road makes it a hard sell for me. 

 

It’s not that i wouldn’t want the guy, i’m just not very comfortable with the cost. It’s the same with JT. The only diff imo is that we need forwards more than we do dmen. Also, JT wouldn’t have the up front huge cost to acquire. 

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, elmatus said:

 

This is exactly my thought as well.

 

The cost for Karlsson would be two-fold: it would cost a ton just to get him, and he would be getting a massive paycheck to boot.

 

Is he worth $10 million? It’s possible. He is a fantastic player for sure. Much like our Tavares conversation, Karlsson is a guy who makes your team remarkably better immediately. 

 

The original question was what would it take to pry him from Ottawa in the first place. My best guess from us would be two firsts and one of our most talented youngsters. And by that i mean probably Patrick or Provo. That combined with the cost of signing Karlsson down the road makes it a hard sell for me. 

 

It’s not that i wouldn’t want the guy, i’m just not very comfortable with the cost. It’s the same with JT. The only diff imo is that we need forwards more than we do dmen. Also, JT wouldn’t have the up front huge cost to acquire. 

 

Agreed.  If they'd take the two firsts and Hagg for him, I'm listening.  If they'd ask for two firsts and Ghost... I'm thinking about it and I'm not sure what I'm saying.  If they ask for more than that and it's just not worth it... especially if it involves a Patrick or a Provo.  I'm not ready to sacrifice the next 10-15 years for the sake of the next 3-5... FOR ONE PLAYER.  He goes down and it's not just that season that's screwed, it's the future too.  It's too much to risk.  

 

Tavares on the other hand...  you're just handcuffing your finances until Jake and G's contracts are done.  There are ways around that even if Patrick and Provo and Konecny all explode with production. 

 

They can literally just Do NOTHING, let Simmer, Jori, Raffl, Weal and both goalies walk and they're getting back $20 million in cap space again next year.    All of those players can be replaced with guys in the system if needs must and half of them I think we'd WANT to be replaced by guys in the system. That doesn't even get into buying out the last years of Mac or Gudas' deals which may become something to think about depending on who's here. 

 

Which is all NOT to say that I think it would take remotely $40 million to bring in Tavares AND then resign Provo and Patrick and Lindblom and Konecny to decent duration deals before 2022, but just to demonstrate how much wiggle room they have in the next two years.  

 

I don't know if Tavares would play here.  I don't know if he'd find that to be too much of a d*ck move to the Islanders fans.  But I think it's incumbant upon Hextall to at least make him an offer and see what it takes.  If he doesn't want to play here, then he doesn't want to play here and if the money he's getting offered is just too much to compete with, then that's cool too.  But I think it's important for Hextall to TRY.  Bringing Tavares into this team now would be close to bringing LeBron to the Heat 7 years ago... or rather bringing LeBron to the 6ers this year.  It doesn't guarantee a championship... but it makes them the team to beat in a heartbeat.