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OccamsRazor

Flyers 2018-19 Offseason moves

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3 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

It's funny. He was fine with Sanheim. He was terrible with Manning. Manning was terrible in general. I'd like to see Gudas back with a passable partner before getting rid of him.

 

Might as well because you ain't going to be able to move him with 3 years left on his deal unless you eat half his salary.

 

But Morin will require his spot I'm afraid there ain't no room for him unless he is making popcorn.

 

Ivan/Ghost

Hagg/Mdud

Morin/Sanheim

 

Gudas will have to say would you like salt and butter with that.

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1 minute ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Might as well because you ain't going to be able to move him with 3 years left on his deal unless you eat half his salary.

 

But Morin will require his spot I'm afraid there ain't no room for him unless he is making popcorn.

 

Ivan/Ghost

Hagg/Mdud

Morin/Sanheim

 

Gudas will have to say would you like salt and butter with that.

 

Gudas has two years left, not three. Same as MacDonald.

 

I'd really consider moving Hagg. I think his current value actually exceeds his ability/upside, and you could use him in a package to get a need from a team that overvalues his physical play. That's not saying I don't like Hagg, but he is a player where I believe the "trade him now, his value will never be higher" gag is actually true.

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3 hours ago, AJgoal said:

 

Gudas has two years left, not three. Same as MacDonald.

 

I'd really consider moving Hagg. I think his current value actually exceeds his ability/upside, and you could use him in a package to get a need from a team that overvalues his physical play. That's not saying I don't like Hagg, but he is a player where I believe the "trade him now, his value will never be higher" gag is actually true.

I think you're underestimating his upside.  That said, I'd move him if the right deal presented itself.  I think he's a second pairing defensively responsible guy, though. 

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3 hours ago, AJgoal said:

I'd really consider moving Hagg.

 

 

For a 1st round pick....yeah i would move him otherwise i hope Gudas doesn't burn the popcorn. :nonono:

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12 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I think you're underestimating his upside.  That said, I'd move him if the right deal presented itself.  I think he's a second pairing defensively responsible guy, though. 

 

I think he's a 5-6 on this team when all is said and done, after Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers, and possibly Morin. That's fine in and of itself. But while I don't particularly want to trade him, I think the Flyers almost have to move out a defenseman this offseason, and Hagg is the one that will have the most value. Morin isn't waiver exempt, and his upside is enough that he has to stay with the big club or someone will claim him. So unless you're willing to rotate Hagg, Sanheim, and Morin on a nightly basis (which I'm not opposed to, I just don't think this coach has it in him to do that), you need to create room for both Sanheim and Morin to play most nights. Provorov and Gostisbehere aren't coming out. Neither is MacDonald. leaving one of Hagg or Gudas as the odd man out. You could have one sit in the pressbox as the traditional 7, but that either stunts Hagg's development or torpedoes Gudas' value. 

 

Trading Gudas this offseason is selling low on one of the most consistent defenders the Flyers had for the season and a half leading up to the second half of this season. He may very well not be the future of the franchise, but trying to move on from him now would most likely result in a lower return than they could get even halfway into the season if he returns to who he was before January-ish. Hagg, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. For most of the season he was ostensibly the #4 on the team. Led all players in the NHL in hits. He was, on the surface, a very effective defensive defenseman, with above average mobility. But if you believe that Sanheim and Myers will be better than him in the next year or two, it makes sense to move him now, before he gets pushed down the depth chart. 

 

I don't usually advocate for giving up a young player, but I think in this case, I think it's the best move for the team to make if they decide they need to move a defenseman.

 

Unless they find a taker for MacDonald. Then they should do that before the other GM's drugs wear off.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, AJgoal said:

 

I think he's a 5-6 on this team when all is said and done, after Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers, and possibly Morin. That's fine in and of itself. But while I don't particularly want to trade him, I think the Flyers almost have to move out a defenseman this offseason, and Hagg is the one that will have the most value. Morin isn't waiver exempt, and his upside is enough that he has to stay with the big club or someone will claim him. So unless you're willing to rotate Hagg, Sanheim, and Morin on a nightly basis (which I'm not opposed to, I just don't think this coach has it in him to do that), you need to create room for both Sanheim and Morin to play most nights. Provorov and Gostisbehere aren't coming out. Neither is MacDonald. leaving one of Hagg or Gudas as the odd man out. You could have one sit in the pressbox as the traditional 7, but that either stunts Hagg's development or torpedoes Gudas' value. 

 

Trading Gudas this offseason is selling low on one of the most consistent defenders the Flyers had for the season and a half leading up to the second half of this season. He may very well not be the future of the franchise, but trying to move on from him now would most likely result in a lower return than they could get even halfway into the season if he returns to who he was before January-ish. Hagg, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. For most of the season he was ostensibly the #4 on the team. Led all players in the NHL in hits. He was, on the surface, a very effective defensive defenseman, with above average mobility. But if you believe that Sanheim and Myers will be better than him in the next year or two, it makes sense to move him now, before he gets pushed down the depth chart. 

 

I don't usually advocate for giving up a young player, but I think in this case, I think it's the best move for the team to make if they decide they need to move a defenseman.

 

Unless they find a taker for MacDonald. Then they should do that before the other GM's drugs wear off.

I don't trade Hagg just because Gudas value is low. Gudas' value is NEVER coming back.  So, I get what I can for him. I'm not trading a better player out and keeping crap just because I can't get crap for him. 

 

It wasn't the second half with Gudas. It was the whole year (or until Nov. 16, when he was suspended). I feel bad for him, actually, but he's been neutered. They've taken his physicality. Previously, that hid the fact his positioning and decision making are, in fact, horrible. His being physical also sometimes altered the opposition puck carrier's decisions, etc. No more. Now, we have post-Bergeron Behold Randy. I would counter your "don't trade him now, his value is low" with "It's only heading lower. Get SOMETHING while you can, if you can." If GMs base their opinions on the Penguins series, it's already too late. 10 chances, I keep MacDonald over him all ten times. 

 

And Morin needs to stay healthy for longer than 20 minutes before I'm moving people out to give him a spot.  Hagg' s value isn't going down, barring injury. And right now he's the one with most of an NHL season under his belt.  If things work out for Sanheim and Morin (I don't see why not with Sanheim--bizarre claims he can't skate not withstanding--but I'm still "wait and see" with Morin) terrific.  But that still leaves a spot for Hagg if you sit or move Gudas. 

 

All that said, if Hagg is what another team is demanding (in a package) for a Stone or an RNH or Talbot or some other goalie, then yes. 

 

I still say 2nd pairing on the Flyers just because he's a steady stay at home defenseman that is sound positionally--the type that Hakstol usually likes to pair with the offensive defensemen. 

 

In reality, I don't see Hextall moving Gudas. I don't understand why, but Hakstol seems to like him.  So, you've got Ghost/Procorov. xxxx/MacDonald,  Gudas /xxxx

 

Two spots for three kids, as you say.  I think they rotate Sanheim and Morin in this scenario.   Ultimately, Gudas and Morin in the lineup are a bit redundant, so hopefully they do move Gudas. 

 

If Myers is ready, that, of course, changes everything.  I'm concerned about his health, too, but we'll see. 

 

I'm not opposed to moving Hagg in the right deal, but I'm not moving him just to make room. I'd move the worthless neutered guy for that. Screw return in this instance; the benefit is the roster room without hurting the roster. 

Edited by ruxpin
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19 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Ok sweet.....not sure what 7 years ago (when Elliott was 27) has to do with now....i guess you'll keep us in suspense. 

 

Hutton posted his at 32.

 

He posted a .930 two years ago.

 

I'm just thinking that Hutton has inflated numbers because of the team in front of him. 

 

If I'm Hextall, I'm not spending assets on a sideways move. 

 

19 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

That would be stupid as f**k!!!

 

Sure, but you know deep down it's probably true, right? Hextall has two NHL goalies under contract. On the one hand, if Neuvirth does miss a lot of time to injuries next year, maybe Stolarz gets a much better look, Hart might even get a game or two. 

 

On the other hand, we saw what happens when you have unreliable goaltending come crunch time. 

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18 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

 

The plan I described specifically has Hart as 6th on the depth chart.  It would only bring him up to play if (like this year) Elliott,  Neuvous Neuvy, Stolarz all got hurt and Lyon was just horrible again. 

 

If 5 goalies got hurt again, and Hart was at least passable in the AHL, Hextall would probably bring up Hart rather than trade for another Mrazek. That’s literally all I meant. 

 

Gotcha. 

 

18 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

I don’t know that I see Neuvy getting much of a shot again. They could use these surgeries and special conditioning he has planned as trade enticement. 

 

There are UFA options. I still really like the idea of carrying neuvy as a press box addition on the 23 man roster just for practices and occasional injury fill ins. 

 

I get what you're saying about keeping Neuvirth for target practice... but does any other team do this (roll with 3 goalies)? Just wondering if it's a realistic scenario. 

 

18 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

Toronto really screwed that pooch, but thanks to that screwing and the subsequent NTC they gave task, Boston had to send Subban to LV.  Not as ugly a loss, but still. Kinda sucks. 

 

Id say they should trade for fleury, but I do t think he’ll waive again. 

 

 

Do you think LV would trade MAF? He had a career year in GAA and save %. If they do trade him, I'm guessing the cost would be high... but he is the kind of goalie I think is a clear upgrade compared to, say, Hutton. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, brelic said:

I'm just thinking that Hutton has inflated numbers because of the team in front of him. 

 

It's possible.  But it's not helping Jake Allen any.

 

Just saying.

 

If we could sign Hutton to platoon with Elliott or to do a 45-35 or 50-30 type split (Elliot with the higher numbers), I think that would be an upgrade over this year.   To me, he's not a savior or even a #1.  Just a more competent stopgap until the kids come that we've heard tell about.

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35 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

It's possible.  But it's not helping Jake Allen any.

 

Just saying.

 

If we could sign Hutton to platoon with Elliott or to do a 45-35 or 50-30 type split (Elliot with the higher numbers), I think that would be an upgrade over this year.   To me, he's not a savior or even a #1.  Just a more competent stopgap until the kids come that we've heard tell about.

 

Allen definitely had an off year. 

 

This is the most important off-season Hextall has had as GM so far. He's going to have to start moving from potential to actual. 

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1 hour ago, brelic said:

 

Gotcha. 

 

 

I get what you're saying about keeping Neuvirth for target practice... but does any other team do this (roll with 3 goalies)? Just wondering if it's a realistic scenario. 

 

 

Do you think LV would trade MAF? He had a career year in GAA and save %. If they do trade him, I'm guessing the cost would be high... but he is the kind of goalie I think is a clear upgrade compared to, say, Hutton. 

 

 

 

I I’m not sure the “what others teams do” applies to the Flyers with their damn goalies anymore. After 15 years or whatever it was with a crap goalie coach, the got a good one who the the. Booted out unceremoniously because he actually stood up for the health and well being of his goalie.  So frankly, I think they should do whatever the eff they haven’t tried yet. Besides, from what Elliott seem d to be suggesting, I’m not sure other teams actually do require their goalies to be out there for quite as many drills and such as Hak does. I wish I could remember when it was exactly, sometime during Elliott playing every night for a month, but  Elliott while not exactly complaining was certainly hinting that it was something he wasn’t used to... and I’m not sure it’s the thing To introduce to a 32 year old.  

 

Maybe in college when these guys don’t play nearly as many games, but in the NHL on a team that doesn’t protect the crease...EVER. it wears thin, I’m sure.  

 

I doubt vegas trades fleury for a number of reasons.  He and Crawford were just the two closest contracts to what we’d be looking for in a player and a trade.  

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I don't trade Hagg just because Gudas value is low. Gudas' value is NEVER coming back.  So, I get what I can for him. I'm not trading a better player out and keeping crap just because I can't get crap for him. 

 

I'm not trying to say that, though I didn't articulate it very well. I'm saying a few things:

 

1) All things being equal, I'd keep both and rotate the three youngest guys (Hagg, Morin, and Sanheim - even tossing in Gudas and MacDonald) depending on matchups, health, and performance. However, I don't trust the coach to be able to do this, and one of them will languish as the 7 if one of the projected seven defencemen isn't moved out. 

2) I don't like making trades just to make trades, unless you're jettisoning literal dead weight, which I don't agree that Gudas is. 

3) Elsewhere in this thread, we're looking at making a trade to either a) get a goalie or b) find some scoring depth. If that's an offseason goal, Hagg is the best chip the Flyers have from both a value and replaceability standpoint.

4) Again, all things being equal, I would prefer to keep Hagg. He's young and at the very least serviceable. But things don't exist in a vacuum, and if you want to improve the team immediately, he's the guy that teams are going to ask about.

 

Quote

 

It wasn't the second half with Gudas. It was the whole year (or until Nov. 16, when he was suspended).

 

I suspect that this is a bit of recency bias. His defensive numbers remained about the same (he was if not the best on the team, right up there) between November 16 and December 28 as they were pre-suspension.  After December 28, when Sanheim was scratched and then demoted, and Gudas was paired with Manning, is when his numbers went in the toilet. Now, it could certainly be that it took opponents a while to figure out that maybe they didn't have to fear Gudas as much, or it could just be that Manning and Gudas were a bad pairing. It happens. I'm not ready to cast a guy aside over half a season. I might actually write a book and break down the defensive stats this season. Looking at them, I am seeing some things that surprise me.

 

Quote

 

And Morin needs to stay healthy for longer than 20 minutes before I'm moving people out to give him a spot.  

 

The problem is that he can't go to the AHL next season without being waived, and the chances of him clearing are pretty close to nil. So you do need to find a way to make room, whether you want to or not. I agree, a rotation is probably the best way to do it (I'd honestly move everyone but Ghost/Provorov in and out of the lineup depending on matchups), but I don't think that it would be effectively managed by the coaching staff - they'd find six and let one guy rot as the 7, and it won't be Gudas or AMac.

 

Quote

 

All that said, if Hagg is what another team is demanding (in a package) for a Stone or an RNH or Talbot or some other goalie, then yes. 

 

This is my whole line of thought. You're not going to move Provorov, Gostisbehere, or Sanheim. Gudas or MacDonald isn't going to bring one of these guys back. That leaves Hagg of the non-prospect defensemen as a chip that can bring back a player to fill an area of need.

 

 

Edited by AJgoal

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2 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

I I’m not sure the “what others teams do” applies to the Flyers with their damn goalies anymore. After 15 years or whatever it was with a crap goalie coach, the got a good one who the the. Booted out unceremoniously because he actually stood up for the health and well being of his goalie.  So frankly, I think they should do whatever the eff they haven’t tried yet. Besides, from what Elliott seem d to be suggesting, I’m not sure other teams actually do require their goalies to be out there for quite as many drills and such as Hak does. I wish I could remember when it was exactly, sometime during Elliott playing every night for a month, but  Elliott while not exactly complaining was certainly hinting that it was something he wasn’t used to... and I’m not sure it’s the thing To introduce to a 32 year old.  

 

Maybe in college when these guys don’t play nearly as many games, but in the NHL on a team that doesn’t protect the crease...EVER. it wears thin, I’m sure.  

 

I'm only asking because if no one really carries three goalies, it's unlikely the Flyers would. 

 

I agree about Reese. I felt that was a rare case of Hextall doing something out of pressure rather than, as he so often says, what is 'right.' I'm sure we don't know the half of what really went on, but it did feel like the 'wrong' move at the time just because Reese actually criticized the organization.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, brelic said:

Allen definitely had an off year. 

 

It was bad even by his standards, but I think we actually saw what Allen really is.   For that reason, I think any discussion of Hutton is actually moot, because Armstrong would be nuts to let Hutton go unless he's going shopping for another starter.   Come to think of it, it's Armstrong, so maybe there is a chance he just lets Hutton go.

 

 

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Just now, ruxpin said:

 

It was bad even by his standards, but I think we actually saw what Allen really is.   For that reason, I think any discussion of Hutton is actually moot, because Armstrong would be nuts to let Hutton go unless he's going shopping for another starter.   Come to think of it, it's Armstrong, so maybe there is a chance he just lets Hutton go.

 

 

 

Yeah, maybe. I think there's probably only a handful of NHL goalies that are excellent under almost any conditions. The rest ebb and flow with the team in front of them. 

 

That being said, does someone like Carlson do more to help goaltending than getting a guy like Hutton? 

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14 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

I'm not trying to say that, though I didn't articulate it very well. I'm saying a few things:

 

1) All things being equal, I'd keep both and rotate the three youngest guys (Hagg, Morin, and Sanheim - even tossing in Gudas and MacDonald) depending on matchups, health, and performance. However, I don't trust the coach to be able to do this, and one of them will languish as the 7 if one of the projected seven defencemen isn't moved out. 

2) I don't like making trades just to make trades, unless you're jettisoning literal dead weight, which I don't agree that Gudas is. 

3) Elsewhere in this thread, we're looking at making a trade to either a) get a goalie or b) find some scoring depth. If that's an offseason goal, Hagg is the best chip the Flyers have from both a value and replaceability standpoint.

4) Again, all things being equal, I would prefer to keep Hagg. He's young and at the very least serviceable. But things don't exist in a vacuum, and if you want to improve the team immediately, he's the guy that teams are going to ask about.

 

 

I suspect that this is a bit of recency bias. His defensive numbers remained about the same (he was if not the best on the team, right up there) between November 16 and December 28 as they were pre-suspension.  After December 28, when Sanheim was scratched and then demoted, and Gudas was paired with Manning, is when his numbers went in the toilet. Now, it could certainly be that it took opponents a while to figure out that maybe they didn't have to fear Gudas as much, or it could just be that Manning and Gudas were a bad pairing. It happens. I'm not ready to cast a guy aside over half a season. I might actually write a book and break down the defensive stats this season. Looking at them, I am seeing some things that surprise me.

 

 

The problem is that he can't go to the AHL next season without being waived, and the chances of him clearing are pretty close to nil. So you do need to find a way to make room, whether you want to or not. I agree, a rotation is probably the best way to do it (I'd honestly move everyone but Ghost/Provorov in and out of the lineup depending on matchups), but I don't think that it would be effectively managed by the coaching staff - they'd find six and let one guy rot as the 7, and it won't be Gudas or AMac.

 

 

This is my whole line of thought. You're not going to move Provorov, Gostisbehere, or Sanheim. Gudas or MacDonald isn't going to bring one of these guys back. That leaves Hagg of the non-prospect defensemen as a chip that can bring back a player to fill an area of need.

 

 

 

That's all fair.   In fact, I think we're in agreement on everything -- except maybe our opinions of Gudas' prognosis.  Not so much for you as for others reading:   It's not that I dislike Gudas.   I actually was thrilled when we got him, and I thought he did a good job in his role with the Flyers.  I saw something significantly different when he came back from suspension.  I do agree, though, that his play was further damaged (worsened?) by the pairing with Manning.   It's not so much Manning, necessarily, as just not a very good pairing.  I do  like the comparison to Behold Randy post-incident.

 

I don't think Gudas knows what to do at this point.   There was at least one suspension (possibly the last one, I'm foggy on which was which at this point) that it seemed the league response was almost solely about name, number, and logo rather than the incident itself.  So, now a guy who made the league on hitting and physical play has had that stripped, made him second guess himself, and I blame the diminished play on that.   There may also be the ingredient of subsequent "knock it off" instruction from coach or management without good coaching/instruction on how to play differently.

 

I think the pairing comment has merit, but I saw noticeable difference in him before that.  If you think it was okay before that, then change in pairing will show improvement in Gudas.  And Gudas has some job security on the Flyers due to being a righthanded shot (not enough on its own, in my opinion, but added to other things it probably keeps him from being moved).   But if  one believes--as I do--that the play was already affected before that...I don't know.

 

I think the best solution baring a "can't turn down" offer from a team involving Hagg, you go with yours and rotate at least until Morin, in particular, proves he can remain healthy. 

 

My concern is the possible pairings if you rotate.  I'm okay with Sanheim with either Gudas or MacDonald (presuming Ghost & Provorov stay together, which may not be the case).    I'm okay with Hagg with MacDonald.   And I think Morin with MacDonald may be okay.   If Morin lives up to expectation, Morin/MacDonald could actually be good.   What I don't like is Gudas with Morin.  I guess the rotation can be fine so long as they stay away from that pairing.

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2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

My concern is the possible pairings if you rotate.  I'm okay with Sanheim with either Gudas or MacDonald (presuming Ghost & Provorov stay together, which may not be the case).    I'm okay with Hagg with MacDonald.   And I think Morin with MacDonald may be okay.   If Morin lives up to expectation, Morin/MacDonald could actually be good.   What I don't like is Gudas with Morin.  I guess the rotation can be fine so long as they stay away from that pairing.

 

The big problem I see with the rotation is the lack of puck movers. MacDonald can. Hagg can.  But ideally, they're not the guy to carry the puck on a pairing. I know Morin can skate, but I'm not sure he can carry. Gudas can't, really. So on nights where Sanheim rotates out, you have at least one sub-optimal pair, two if you keep Provorov and Ghost together.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, brelic said:

Yeah, maybe. I think there's probably only a handful of NHL goalies that are excellent under almost any conditions. The rest ebb and flow with the team in front of them. 

 

That being said, does someone like Carlson do more to help goaltending than getting a guy like Hutton? 

 

The first paragraph is true.  And really, with the exception of a very small handful of goalies, goaltending pretty much blew league-wide.  At least anecdotally and from a fantasy perspective.  I think Allen maybe could be better in a different situation, but I think he needs a change of scenery, actually.  Think about the goofiness Armstrong has done particularly with the goaltending since Allen has been around.  That couldn't have helped his confidence or mindset.

 

The second part:   I think someone like Carlson could help Elliott, although I've always thought of Carlson as more of an offensive defenseman.  But yeah, he could help Elliott.   But unless he has a medical degree or has bubblewrap for Neuvy, he's not helping him.   Unless he has a magic wand or spell or the Hand of God or something, he's not helping Mrazek or Lyon.  Stolarz may be an okay stop gap if that's the way they go, but he, too, still has health issues.  I don't think he's going to end up being dependable.  He's only average to begin with but would suffice in a 25-30 game role provided his health gets stabilized.  Carlson would likely help any goalie and would help Stolarz--if healthy.

 

But I really don't like what Carlson does to the kids and I think that issue will cause Hextall to not act.   AJ and I are already discussing the need to platoon 3 kids in 2 slots.  Bringing in Carlson makes 3 kids, 1 slot.   I'm not making that move just now unless I'm also moving out Gudas and maybe even find somewhere to go with MacDonald (who I'm not in a hurry to move at this point but would in the right deal or if I have to clear room for Carlson).  I think we're in the early stages of better than Carlson with Provorov, so I don't think it's necessary.

 

My first priority is still goaltending and then scoring left-winger followed by try to shore up the bottom six and make them something the opposition at least has to consider.

Edited by ruxpin
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5 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

The big problem I see with the rotation is the lack of puck movers. MacDonald can. Hagg can.  But ideally, they're not the guy to carry the puck on a pairing. I know Morin can skate, but I'm not sure he can carry. Gudas can't, really. So on nights where Sanheim rotates out, you have at least one sub-optimal pair, two if you keep Provorov and Ghost together.

 

Completely agree with this.   Maybe Ghost and Provorov together aren't a great idea?   Or at least with specific lineup configurations.  I actually like them together, but it may be a spread-the-wealth thing like you do when you drop a winger to the second line.   I'm trying to think what I do if I split them.   I want to do everything I can to keep MacDonald off the top pair.   I think he's well-suited for the second pair and always have, but I've also always thought he's exposed on the top pair.    I think I don't want Mac with Ghost, either, but if I drop Ghost to the third pair and keep him on first PP unit...I was going to say I don't like that, but that may be the solution.  

 

I'm just typing as I think, so tweak or filet at will:

 

Provorov  Hagg

MacDonald  Morin

Gudas  Ghost

 

I think you can maybe substitute Sanheim in for either Hagg or Morin without necessarily having to rearrange the other pairings.  I'm also not really taking into account what side people play on, so maybe this doesn't work.   You could flip-flop Hagg and Ghost, too, but I'm not thrilled with Hagg and Gudas.  It's not horrible, though.

 

Just for giggles:

Provoro  Ghost

MacDonald Morin

Hagg Sanheim

 

I know the bottom pair is really young, but Hagg has most of a year under him. Sanheim should still be considered green and the pair will be exposed some, but I think it could work.

 

For @brelic's benefit:

 

Provorov Carlson

MacDonald Hagg

Morin Ghost

 

Sanheim would rotate with Hagg and Morin.   When Morin is out, the defense gets kind of smallish.

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Big picture, I have worried about the design of this team since the Big Strike of '04-'05.  This is an uptempo game and we don't have the horses.  Yes, having a good goalie and more skilled forwards would help.  But best of breed hockey these days means swarm attacking and staying in the attack zone.  I hope our prospects fit that bill.

 

A question we might ask is whether our GM does a "blockbuster" deal, not so much with our major league players, but with prospects.  He dumped Madsen the goalie last year.  I agree that a Hagg and other prospects, even Morin, but be in the offing.  I guess we see.

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2 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Big picture, I have worried about the design of this team since the Big Strike of '04-'05.  This is an uptempo game and we don't have the horses.  Yes, having a good goalie and more skilled forwards would help.  But best of breed hockey these days means swarm attacking and staying in the attack zone.  I hope our prospects fit that bill.

 

I agree with the "swarm" and staying in the attack zone.  I think we have "the horses."   Just not enough of them yet.   The good goalie and some of the forwards we have coming (and we need to go get another top-6 left-winger unless they're converting a prospect they haven't yet).

 

What I'm not sure of is that we have a coach that is willing or able to play that.  Maybe he's waiting on the pieces, I don't know (but don't think so).   To use just one example that I think justifies your "skilled" vs. "swarm and stay" dichotomy is Voracek.   I don't know how you "stay" when he insists on stickhandling through the Manson Family Reunion and is a possession killer.  Voracek is most noticeable, but he's not alone in this.   

 

"Swarm and stay" is also difficult when you have Giroux (and others) entering the zone and stopping and turning on the half wall for no reason in particular.   

 

Lastly, "swarm and stay" is difficult when your offense is generated by your defense.   You want your defense generating offense in today's game.  To swarm and stay, you have to have them up.   I get that.   But this team--and/or maybe system--seems to have become overly dependent on this, particularly on the power play.

 

I do think we'll be okay once more pieces arrive --either by prospects graduating or by plug and play.  And the goalie thing will definitely help if the team feels like it can move up ice more quickly and fluently without having to worry about an errant pass instantly ending up in their own net.  

 

The other thing, too, is we still have two entire lines not capable of playing that kind of game.  Again, this will improve (in theory) as help arrives and some are moved out and others in.  Swarm and stay only works when you have at least three lines capable so you can wear down the opponent rather than their having two shifts to catch their breath.

 

But I think you're right that when you watch the Pens against us, or even when watching Winnipeg or Nashville and others, that they are simply faster and come more in waves.  Vegas plays a slightly different game than the rest.  They swarm as well but more in a 2006-2008 Buffalo Sabres way than a Pitt or Jets.   We're clearly not there either. 

 

Long post to say you're right, but that I think that's still coming provided the coach plays along.  

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7 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Completely agree with this.   Maybe Ghost and Provorov together aren't a great idea?   Or at least with specific lineup configurations.  I actually like them together, but it may be a spread-the-wealth thing like you do when you drop a winger to the second line.   I'm trying to think what I do if I split them.   I want to do everything I can to keep MacDonald off the top pair.   I think he's well-suited for the second pair and always have, but I've also always thought he's exposed on the top pair.    I think I don't want Mac with Ghost, either, but if I drop Ghost to the third pair and keep him on first PP unit...I was going to say I don't like that, but that may be the solution.  

 

I think you have to, at least for another half season to one season. I love them together, and their numbers were phenomenal after December 29 (It really was a tale of two seasons on the defense). But until some of the kids hit their stride, I don't think the Flyers can afford one really great defensive pairing at the expense of the other two.

 

7 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I'm just typing as I think, so tweak or filet at will:

 

Provorov  Hagg

MacDonald  Morin

Gudas  Ghost

 

Although Gudas is a right hand shot, and Ghost has said he's more comfortable on the left, I don't kow how Gudas' "shoot every time I have the puck" mentality would mesh with him. I know you're going to kill me here, but I'd consider:

 

Provorov-Gudas - We'll get a really quick idea of whether Gudas is actually done, or if he was just in a bad pairing

Gostisbehere - Hagg - They were pretty solid to start the season

Sanheim - MacDonald - this pairing was actually really good to end the season.

 

and work Morin in in place of Gudas, Hagg, or Sanheim enough that everyone gets about an even piece of playing time. I'm just not sure if he can play on the right, which means more juggling on the nights when Gudas sits.

 

7 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I think you can maybe substitute Sanheim in for either Hagg or Morin without necessarily having to rearrange the other pairings.  I'm also not really taking into account what side people play on, so maybe this doesn't work.   You could flip-flop Hagg and Ghost, too, but I'm not thrilled with Hagg and Gudas.  It's not horrible, though.

 

Just for giggles:

Provoro  Ghost

MacDonald Morin

Hagg Sanheim

 

I know the bottom pair is really young, but Hagg has most of a year under him. Sanheim should still be considered green and the pair will be exposed some, but I think it could work.

 

For @brelic's benefit:

 

Provorov Carlson

MacDonald Hagg

Morin Ghost

 

Sanheim would rotate with Hagg and Morin.   When Morin is out, the defense gets kind of smallish.

 

I don't know. Believe it or not, with the exception of Gostisbehere, the defencemen are all about the same size. Gudas is the shortest guy at 6'0, 204. Hagg is 6'2, 204; MacDonald 6'1, 204; Provorov 6'1, 201. Sanheim is 6'4, but he is a beanpole still at 181. 

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26 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

But I really don't like what Carlson does to the kids and I think that issue will cause Hextall to not act.   AJ and I are already discussing the need to platoon 3 kids in 2 slots.  Bringing in Carlson makes 3 kids, 1 slot.   I'm not making that move just now unless I'm also moving out Gudas and maybe even find somewhere to go with MacDonalds (who I'm not in a hurry to move at this point but would in the right deal or if I have to clear room for Carlson).  I think we're in the early stages of better than Carlson with Provorov, so I don't think it's necessary.

 

Yes, I agree. That's what I was thinking too - any move to bring in a veteran defenseman is predicated upon moving out Gudas. 

 

That being said, I don't know that I pencil in Morin until he shows a) that he can play at this level better than another 5/6 defenseman, and b) that he can actually stay healthy. 

 

Morin missed almost an entire season, so it's really hard to gauge his development. Either way, he's on the Flyers next year, but his role depends on him.

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2 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

I think you have to, at least for another half season to one season. I love them together, and their numbers were phenomenal after December 29 (It really was a tale of two seasons on the defense). But until some of the kids hit their stride, I don't think the Flyers can afford one really great defensive pairing at the expense of the other two.

 

Agreed

 

2 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

Although Gudas is a right hand shot, and Ghost has said he's more comfortable on the left, I don't kow how Gudas' "shoot every time I have the puck" mentality would mesh with him. I know you're going to kill me here, but I'd consider:

 

Provorov-Gudas - We'll get a really quick idea of whether Gudas is actually done, or if he was just in a bad pairing

Gostisbehere - Hagg - They were pretty solid to start the season

Sanheim - MacDonald - this pairing was actually really good to end the season.

 

and work Morin in in place of Gudas, Hagg, or Sanheim enough that everyone gets about an even piece of playing time. I'm just not sure if he can play on the right, which means more juggling on the nights when Gudas sits.

 

Agree with the first paragraph.

 

I'm not going to kill you for your pairings.   I'm actually okay with it and think the bolded is actually brilliant.  I am, however, scared to death of Gudas being out there regularly against top lines, but as you say, pairings can be changed (what? Hakstol change pairings???) and we should know pretty quickly.

 

I was thinking Morin played the right, but now I don't know why I thought that.  Now I don't know.

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2 hours ago, brelic said:

 

If I'm Hextall, I'm not spending assets on a sideways move. 

 

What assets would you be spending?

 

A pen and a piece of paper to offer him a contract a bump up for what he is making is all.

 

He is a UFA.

 

All you have to do is offer and give him a chance to compete for the net.

 

Hell he might not want to leave St. Louis.

 

And if he is a product of the team in front of him isn't that going to be the case with every player and position when it comes to them having decent numbers?

 

Yeah I think so.

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