Seattle Changes Everything for the Flyers

[ruxpin]

11 minutes ago, King Knut said:

I'm saying trade up in the draft and just plan on being able to (hopefully) replace whoever you lose with one of these kids.  There's like 5 D men in the projected top 12.  

 

Yeah, I'm thinking this may be the way to go.

 

None of the options are exactly ideal.   But at least your previous post (the one where you said--maybe at least partially tongue-in-cheek--about trading three dmen to avoid losing any for nothing) follows the logic of trading to get out of it to its logical conclusion.

 

I mostly jokingly mentioned Laughton as tribute earlier.  But given that he'd be a 25 year old former first round pick on a modest salary, and given that with the centers coming he may actually be out of a role in Philly, how horrible would it be to make a deal with Seattle that if they're willing to take Laughton we'd give them a second round pick?   I don't want to go first rounder and think it would be out of character for Hextall anyway, but would a second rounder and Laughton kill us and do you think it would be suitable for Seattle?   At 25 and in a steady role, he may actually be attractive to an expansion team.  What do you think?

 

Hagg or Morin would be my fallback on such a concept, especially if you trade up this year as you suggest.

[AJgoal]

14 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Keep in mind, as of right now, Vegas won't remotely be able to fulfill the requirements as far as exposing players.   Only 5 players currently on their team will STILL be under contract come the Seattle draft.  

 

Players under contract at the start of 2020:

 

Bruins - 6

Sabres - 4

Hurricanes - 5

Blackhawks - 8

Flyers - 4

 

Those are just the teams I took a quick look at. It's not a condition unique to Vegas.

[fan4ever]

I only have one thing to say......

 

I'm glad I'm not the GM!!!!

 

This is difficult!!

 

In Hexy we trust!

[King Knut]

11 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

Players under contract at the start of 2020:

 

Bruins - 6

Sabres - 4

Hurricanes - 5

Blackhawks - 8

Flyers - 4

 

Those are just the teams I took a quick look at. It's not a condition unique to Vegas.

 

You're not really representing the situation though.  

 

I don't have time to look at all those teams but the let's take the Flyers for example: 

They have 4 under contract currently considered Flyers for 2020, but they also have 6 RFAs that summer as opposed to Vegas' 2 RFA's that summer.

 

This summer the Flyers have 7 RFA's expected to return and likely be Flyers in the next two years as well as Lindblom, Sanheim and Myers who are more or less Flyers already.

As opposed to Vegas who this summer has 5 RFA's two of which are two of the team's most important players and will likely be back, the rest... kinda not a big deal.  

 

I imagine it's pretty much the same on other teams because they've been drafting players in their teens for several years whereas Vegas drafted junior kids once this year and the rest of their organization is guys on contracts signed by other teams.  It's true, but original statement about 5 players was deceptive, but the overriding sentiment that Vegas isn't completely able to control it's destiny the same way the rest of the league is, is completely legit.  

 

 

[AJgoal]

3 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

You're not really representing the situation though.  

 

I don't have time to look at all those teams but the let's take the Flyers for example: 

They have 4 under contract currently considered Flyers for 2020, but they also have 6 RFAs that summer as opposed to Vegas' 2 RFA's that summer.

 

This summer the Flyers have 7 RFA's expected to return and likely be Flyers in the next two years as well as Lindblom, Sanheim and Myers who are more or less Flyers already.

As opposed to Vegas who this summer has 5 RFA's two of which are two of the team's most important players and will likely be back, the rest... kinda not a big deal.  

 

I imagine it's pretty much the same on other teams because they've been drafting players in their teens for several years whereas Vegas drafted junior kids once this year and the rest of their organization is guys on contracts signed by other teams.  It's true, but original statement about 5 players was deceptive, but the overriding sentiment that Vegas isn't completely able to control it's destiny the same way the rest of the league is, is completely legit.  

 

 

 

But it's not as if Vegas won't have a team under contract in two years, either. If they were to simply proceed as-is, and sign nobody, they wouldn't be able to ice a team next year, let alone be worried about the expansion draft.

[King Knut]

25 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Yeah, I'm thinking this may be the way to go.

 

None of the options are exactly ideal.   But at least your previous post (the one where you said--maybe at least partially tongue-in-cheek--about trading three dmen to avoid losing any for nothing) follows the logic of trading to get out of it to its logical conclusion.

 

I mostly jokingly mentioned Laughton as tribute earlier.  But given that he'd be a 25 year old former first round pick on a modest salary, and given that with the centers coming he may actually be out of a role in Philly, how horrible would it be to make a deal with Seattle that if they're willing to take Laughton we'd give them a second round pick?   I don't want to go first rounder and think it would be out of character for Hextall anyway, but would a second rounder and Laughton kill us and do you think it would be suitable for Seattle?   At 25 and in a steady role, he may actually be attractive to an expansion team.  What do you think?

 

Hagg or Morin would be my fallback on such a concept, especially if you trade up this year as you suggest.

 

Partially tongue in cheek, partially out of pissy grumbling.

 

The other option is that Morin and Myers continue to have injury problems over the next two years and you're just not as worried about losing them anymore.

 

IF however they all work out, I'm protecting Morin and letting them choose between Sanheim and Myers.

Sanheim and Myers are similar enough that you're not losing a complete skill set if you lose ONE of the two.

 

However, Myers is a big big boy.  Not Morin big, but pretty damn close and right now he is looking like a complete package in the minors.  He could very well establish himself as a truly fantastic D man over the next two seasons and make the question of who to protect moot.

 

The other option I thought of was to just give Provo his big deal at the end of this deal and just scare them off with that, but unless something terrible happens to Provo, he's going to be worth every dollar Hextall could give him.  

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, AJgoal said:

 

But it's not as if Vegas won't have a team under contract in two years, either. If they were to simply proceed as-is, and sign nobody, they wouldn't be able to ice a team next year, let alone be worried about the expansion draft.

 

That wasn't my point.  My point is that Vegas is basically rebuilding most of their team in the next two years whereas the Flyers and most other NHL teams (except for like the Rangers for instance) aren't starting from nearly scratch like that.  Most NHL teams who are not the knights have been planning for 3 or 4 years what their team will be in two years and structuring RFA contracts and making picks based not just on skill level, but on their needs considering which existing contracts will be expiring when.

It's one of the silent things that doesn't get awarded, but Hextall's actually done a pretty damn smart job of structuring contracts and durations with consideration to the cap and when he's going to need to recharge certain roles.  Simmer's contract was amazing, Coots' was fantastic, Ghosts was a revelation.  When I applaud his work as GM, it's not just unloading Vinny, Luke, Grossman and those guys or for getting 2 firsts for Schenn, it's how he's structured the pay roll after making all those deals as well.  

Vegas is going to be figuring it out on the Fly.  

 

Hextall will look at the roster he's been building for 4 years and say who can I afford to lose in 2 years?  

McPhee has to look at the entirety of the NHL and Free Agency and not only say, What does my team need to be good, but also factor in who he might lose into that.  

 

It's a different game and I'm just saying I think it's harder and I can see why the league would spare the team of it.  

Of all the things that are unfair about the expansion draft as it is, Vegas not having to participate right now isn't in my top 10.  

 

That's all I mean.  I get it.  

[AJgoal]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

Vegas will make out and if they win the cup and are competitive again next year and don't have to lose someone to this draft, that will be a bitter pill for every other fan in the league... BUT

 

Keep in mind, as of right now, Vegas won't remotely be able to fulfill the requirements as far as exposing players.   Only 5 players currently on their team will STILL be under contract come the Seattle draft.  

 

As frustrating as it is and as great as vegas can make out on it, there's a reason they're exempt beyond preferential treatment.  

 

Now if you want to talk about preferential treatment, somehow I still expect the league to make the penguins exempt somehow.  Fleury gave them such a pass last time around.  It's working out for him, but still... can that organization just NOT catch a break for once?  Just once?

 

Who mentioned preferential treatment? I didn't. I was just pointing out that Vegas had an excellent opportunity to strengthen themselves.

[ruxpin]

7 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

Who mentioned preferential treatment? I didn't. I was just pointing out that Vegas had an excellent opportunity to strengthen themselves.

Well yeah, but nothing came of it. 

[brelic]

The solution is easy.

 

Give everyone a NMC. Bam. Automatic protection.

 

 

Homer would approve. 

 

As a side note, we currently have ONE NMC (Giroux) and one modified NTC (Simmer). 

 

At one point under Homer, we had 7 guys with NMC/NTC on the team. 

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, brelic said:

The solution is easy.

 

Give everyone a NMC. Bam. Automatic protection.

 

 

Homer would approve. 

 

As a side note, we currently have ONE NMC (Giroux) and one modified NTC (Simmer). 

 

At one point under Homer, we had 7 guys with NMC/NTC on the team. 

 

That would be interesting.  I don't know how the league would deal with more players having NMC's than you're technically allowed to protect, but if the FLyers could sign 3 scrub D men with 2 years of pro experience to meet the exposure requirements, BAM potentially problem is solved.

[brelic]

13 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

That would be interesting.  I don't know how the league would deal with more players having NMC's than you're technically allowed to protect, but if the FLyers could sign 3 scrub D men with 2 years of pro experience to meet the exposure requirements, BAM potentially problem is solved.

 

Good question. The issue is not just a league one, it's an NHLPA issue too. They would likely defend a player's contractual guarantees. 

 

I have a feeling Hextall will go 8P / 1G over 7F / 3D / 1G in order to protect 4 defensemen. But it's two years away and lots can change, obvs.

 

What a crappy situation in any case.

 

"Would you rather lose your arm or your leg? You gotta lose one, so choose wisely. I know you've grown them your whole life and are quite attached to them, but we've got a limbless body here, and it needs parts. So cough it up. We warned you it would cost an arm and a leg... so be thankful it's one or the other!"

 

 

[King Knut]

3 hours ago, brelic said:

 

Good question. The issue is not just a league one, it's an NHLPA issue too. They would likely defend a player's contractual guarantees. 

 

I have a feeling Hextall will go 8P / 1G over 7F / 3D / 1G in order to protect 4 defensemen. But it's two years away and lots can change, obvs.

 

What a crappy situation in any case.

 

"Would you rather lose your arm or your leg? You gotta lose one, so choose wisely. I know you've grown them your whole life and are quite attached to them, but we've got a limbless body here, and it needs parts. So cough it up. We warned you it would cost an arm and a leg... so be thankful it's one or the other!"

 

 

 

I thought about the 8 and a goalie, and that gives room to at least protect Myers and sanheim, but on the other end that means Giroux, Colts, TK and Patrick.  Which I’m pretty much okay with except we don’t know who he’ll sign or acquire this off season.  If we get a Mark Stone somehow, we’ll likely want to keep him. 

 

most here seem to think Jake going is a good thing and in two years maybe they’re right.  

 

And yes.. crappy situation. 

[ruxpin]

21 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

I thought about the 8 and a goalie, and that gives room to at least protect Myers and sanheim, but on the other end that means Giroux, Colts, TK and Patrick.  Which I’m pretty much okay with except we don’t know who he’ll sign or acquire this off season.  If we get a Mark Stone somehow, we’ll likely want to keep him. 

 

most here seem to think Jake going is a good thing and in two years maybe they’re right.  

 

And yes.. crappy situation. 

I keep saying Jake myself.  I don't think that's a good thing, though.  Just possibly a necessary evil. 

 

I still think we can steer Seattle to pick who we want then to by offering a draft pick and/or some other player or prospect.  (Laughlin or someone along those lines).  I know people said early not to do 2 instead of one, but if we can do it with two B or C prospects rather than one A, I'm okay with that.  Someone we want them to take plus a 2nd rounder is fine with me, too. 

[jammer2]

 Really cool idea for a thread Knut....yes, we are WAY ahead of the curve topic wise. No other forum is even thinking about this...much less having an in depth convo about it....so kudos. 

 

 Have only read half of the first of 4 pages...but early thoughts.....Don't sleep on Lyon...it may be possible that the Flyers might be forced to keep Lyon and Hart....although looking ahead, if it is a tie between being ready and going to the AHL...this is the kinda thing that may convince Hexy to give Hart some AHL seasoning. I wanna see a whole lotta Lyon, Stolarz and Sandstrom....to see who may be on the roster as early as next year. 

 

 The other thing I  was gonna say, is nothing is written in stone that the league will give Seattle the exact same type of treatment that Vegas got....even though McPhee did a TON, a strong argument could be made the league cut to deep into rosters for that particular expansion draft. It's not like Seattle will be in any position to put up a fuss.....right?

[jammer2]

On 5/22/2018 at 12:52 PM, King Knut said:

I'm with you on contraction. 

 

 That will just never happen. It would mean Bettman would be admitting defeat, or at least that he was wrong. Plus, the NHLPA would fight that tooth and nail....maybe even strike over it....because when you think about it, having ANOTHER 30+ members is a LOT of cash, enough to draw a line in the sand for the next CBA. 

[jammer2]

On 5/22/2018 at 1:30 PM, brelic said:

Under those rules, Frost and Hart (and any other player not currently in the NHL/AHL) would be automatically exempt because they would be considered "first or second-year professionals," which includes NHL and AHL. So they could both play this year and next year in the NHL and be exempt.

 

 

 Yes, was struggling to remember the exact wording of that...so Frost, Ratcliffe, Hart, Rubs....all safe, that is at least something, cause I think at least 3 of the 4 will be regular Flyers. 

[jammer2]

On 5/22/2018 at 1:07 PM, King Knut said:

It's apparently the case.  I'm not arguing that.  I'm not arguing at all.  I'm really confused by it.  It seems that with profit sharing and, expansion drafts tv rights dilution and the rest of it, these teams SHOULD just be a drain on the rest of the league.  Instead the rest of the league keeps voting to expand.  why is that?

 

 It is ALL ego based on the part of Bettemen. He will never admit a current team will not eventually turn it around. Any re-location (in his eyes) would be a black mark on his legacy.....and believe me, that little Napoleonic twerp is all about legacy. 

[jammer2]

On 5/22/2018 at 12:57 PM, elmatus said:

You mean they will evaporate. I suppose it's possible Vegas can buck the trend, but it would be doing just that. Tampa Bay has been a remarkably successful team for the better part of two decades now, and they can barely fill the seats many evenings during the season.

 

 

 I can only imagine how many bandwagon Vegasites (is that what they are called?) will be hopping on the train. BUT...they only need respectable homegrown Vegas support. I can only imagine how many Canadians will build their vacations around their team going to Vegas....the lure of the women, gambling, NHL and warm weather in the Winter??  This part of the scenario WILL explode. 

 

 Um....yeah....BUT BABE....it's the Leafs.....that is why I'm going!!

[OccamsRazor]

3 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 Yes, was struggling to remember the exact wording of that...so Frost, Ratcliffe, Hart, Rubs....all safe, that is at least something, cause I think at least 3 of the 4 will be regular Flyers. 

 

Yes they should be safe.

 

I think you could lose a lower tier type prospect (and i hate to use that term but right now to hard to see how good they will be) so a Friedman, Vorobyev, Aube Kubel, Lindblom or Laughton could be gone.

 

No matter i have trust he Ron to do his best to leave them very little to chose from like he did this past one Bellemare? Gordon? Raffl? Read take your pick....so yeah they went with Bellemare.

[King Knut]

9 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 That will just never happen. It would mean Bettman would be admitting defeat, or at least that he was wrong. Plus, the NHLPA would fight that tooth and nail....maybe even strike over it....because when you think about it, having ANOTHER 30+ members is a LOT of cash, enough to draw a line in the sand for the next CBA. 

 

I agree that it won't happen.  At least not short of a sustained depression that affects the entire economy.

Doesn't change the fact that it's probably what should happen.  

 

There are teams now that even with profit sharing struggle to meet the cap floor. The league is economically fundamentally unsound in its current form.  

[King Knut]

8 hours ago, jammer2 said:

 

 It is ALL ego based on the part of Bettemen. He will never admit a current team will not eventually turn it around. Any re-location (in his eyes) would be a black mark on his legacy.....and believe me, that little Napoleonic twerp is all about legacy. 

 

I don't doubt that, but that's Bettman.  It's the owners I'm confused by.  How much of that 200 million or whatever it was goes directly to each team?  Is it evenly distributed or do teams like the Flyers that have been carrying extra weight for a decade plus get a bigger cut?  

 

I understand that an owner's goal is to make a profit and not win a cup, but taking even an enormous short term cash infusion at the risk of diluting long term profit pool.

 

Teams predominantly make more money from playoff success, playoff ticket sales, sponsorships, TV shares and merchandising (almost all of these are predicated upon or enhanced by being a successful talented team that people want to watch and have a chance of winning for people to root for).  

 

Every team in this league (especially out in the west) just voted to make it harder for them to be successful. Especially if it's under the same rules of the Vegas draft which proved to be so beneficial to the expansion team that they are now the odds on favorite to win the cup.  

 

So the chances are good that teams in the west just voted to put two new teams in the playoffs in 2021 instead of their team.  

It's certainly more fair for them to have as many teams as the east, but I've long thought that moving Detroit to the east was stupid.

 

[Digityman]

On 5/22/2018 at 1:31 PM, AJgoal said:

 

Ghost plays wing for a season.

 

I want this to happen.  Just for 10 games.  Try and see.

[ruxpin]

On 5/22/2018 at 1:31 PM, AJgoal said:

 

Option C: 

 

Giroux, Voracek, Patrick, Couturier, TK, Lindblom +1

Provo, Myers, Sanheim*

 

Ghost plays wing for a season.

 

No thanks.  But honestly, I do wonder why some guys don't just switch to wing.  Ghost is an example, though he is improving on defense.

 

Ryan Merkley, in this year's draft (Guelph) is a perfect example.  He hates defense and has no idea back there but is really good on offense.  So why not switch to wing?

[brelic]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

I agree that it won't happen.  At least not short of a sustained depression that affects the entire economy.

Doesn't change the fact that it's probably what should happen.  

 

There are teams now that even with profit sharing struggle to meet the cap floor. The league is economically fundamentally unsound in its current form.  

 

It would be if it didn't have profit sharing. But that, combined with, $4.54B in revenue this year, make for a very profitable league overall.

 

They have a 10 year, $2B deal with NBC/Comcast, and a 12 year, $5.2B deal with Rogers. 

 

Bettman has done an amazing job for the people who employ him - the owners. Owners want revenue growth, and he's done that in spades. 

 

At the same time, I personally find hockey less appealing to me - that could be for a number of reasons, but the biggest is probably just that I'm older now and don't watch TV. I love watching the Flyers, but when they're not entertaining, I usually go do something else. I'm guessing I'm the exception as the 'hockey' fanbase overall seems to be growing.  

 

All that to say that the league is showing no signs of slowing down.