How Close Are The Flyers?

[King Knut]

The Eternal Question, to which most of us typically replay, "A few years."

But I beg to differ.  

 

I have little doubt that if the Flyers had faced the Capitals in the first round, we'd have beaten them.

I also think the Devils may have beaten the Penguins.

 

The Playoffs are as much about the match ups as they are the quality of the teams.  

 

It's not going to take much to improve upon the goalie situation or Gudas or Filppula.  

 

So when you look at these capitals who look very much like they're going to win a cup, just remember, we took 3 of 4 from them and outscored them by almost 2-1 in the season.

 

Let's get a goalie and start playing Myers and Sanheim all the time and then sign that 3C.  Things are going to be looking good.

[OccamsRazor]

They are a few pieces away. Mainly the guy between the pipes.

 

My biggest question is in the coach.

 

Can he improvise and change up his game plan during games....despite the personel.

 

We are seeing Gallant and the Knights struggle with Trotz and the game plan he has deployed to stop them.

 

So can Hak lead this group forward and coming up with the scheme to do it and when the other team finds a way to stop them can Hak adjust.

 

To me that is my biggest question going into next year.

[ruxpin]

52 minutes ago, King Knut said:

I have little doubt that if the Flyers had faced the Capitals in the first round, we'd have beaten them.

 

I highly doubt this, although I would have argued similarly going into the playoffs.   My doubt stems from this:

 

37 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

My biggest question is in the coach.

 

The Flyers did well against them in the regular season.  But in a playoff series  I really do wonder about Hakstol's ability to adapt to whatever alterations the opposing coach makes.  Plus, the Capitals have surprised the heck out of me this year with their newfound ability to hang in a protracted series, even when down.

 

As for your overall question and answer, I agree that they're not actually as far as some may think.  They need a couple things and in some instances can accomplish several things with the right player.

 

First and foremost is goalie.   They really only need competent and hopefully have above average still only a year or two away.  So, this coming season, competent could get them a round or two.  Maybe Lyon surprises me and an Elliott/Lyon tandem will suffice.   I will be as surprised as I've ever been, but I suppose it's possible.    

 

Definitely a 3C.  Maybe one of the kids coming can do that.  Maybe a 2-3 year deal outside (preferably 2) might need to happen.

This could be the same player as the 3C, but we need at least one forward that can help with the penalty kill.   I would argue this is a coaching issue on special teams, but we need better out there on the kill than Filppula.  

 

I also agree with just playing the kids on defense and see where that takes us.  Keep Gudas and swing him in and out to spot Meyers and Sanheim if you have to, but play the damn kids.

 

I really don't think they're that far off.  

[King Knut]

54 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

They are a few pieces away. Mainly the guy between the pipes.

 

My biggest question is in the coach.

 

Can he improvise and change up his game plan during games....despite the personel.

 

We are seeing Gallant and the Knights struggle with Trotz and the game plan he has deployed to stop them.

 

So can Hak lead this group forward and coming up with the scheme to do it and when the other team finds a way to stop them can Hak adjust.

 

To me that is my biggest question going into next year.

 

For a moment I almost forgot about Hakstol.  It was kind of a nice moment.

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

9 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I highly doubt this, although I would have argued similarly going into the playoffs.   My doubt stems from this:

 

 

The Flyers did well against them in the regular season.  But in a playoff series  I really do wonder about Hakstol's ability to adapt to whatever alterations the opposing coach makes.  Plus, the Capitals have surprised the heck out of me this year with their newfound ability to hang in a protracted series, even when down.

 

As for your overall question and answer, I agree that they're not actually as far as some may think.  They need a couple things and in some instances can accomplish several things with the right player.

 

First and foremost is goalie.   They really only need competent and hopefully have above average still only a year or two away.  So, this coming season, competent could get them a round or two.  Maybe Lyon surprises me and an Elliott/Lyon tandem will suffice.   I will be as surprised as I've ever been, but I suppose it's possible.    

 

Definitely a 3C.  Maybe one of the kids coming can do that.  Maybe a 2-3 year deal outside (preferably 2) might need to happen.

This could be the same player as the 3C, but we need at least one forward that can help with the penalty kill.   I would argue this is a coaching issue on special teams, but we need better out there on the kill than Filppula.  

 

I also agree with just playing the kids on defense and see where that takes us.  Keep Gudas and swing him in and out to spot Meyers and Sanheim if you have to, but play the damn kids.

 

I really don't think they're that far off.  

 

STILL... even as ridiculously unprepared for Sullivan as he was, I still think they beat the caps.  I don't think they could have beaten the Lightning and they may have lost to the Devils in a 7 game series too.  In fact the caps and the Blue Jackets may be the only teams in the East I'd have much confidence in the Flyers beating in a 7 game series.  

 

The other thing to keep in mind is that Trotz has literally been there and failed 10 times.  

 

Hak has a LOT to learn and how much terrifies me and how willing Hextall is to stick with him while he's learning is even more terrifying.  

I think his biggest problem is that he's too studious about it.  Doesn't have a feel for it.  I think he's made strides and is getting better, but there are a great many things I'm concerned about as he hasn't even scratched the surface on them (The Defensemen for instance have no idea what they're doing inside when they're actually defending.  They're a disaster in their own end when they don't have the puck and they scrape by on their wits alone because some of them are just so ridiculously talented but then they get toasted because they've been coached so poorly).  I like what Hak does with them in the neutral zone and when they're getting OUT of their own end at even strength (because let's face it, down a man, they're never getting out of their own zone are they?).  

 

Short of that, if he could just be compelled to not put out Lehtera, Manning, Gudas, and openly injured players like Simmonds in the last two minutes of a one goal game... especially when the goalie's pulled, I think that would go a long way to a bunch more wins.  

 

[Howie58]

I'll be a broken record.  The Hakstol-Hextall Combo has two years to enter the top 10 in points and win at least one series.  If that doesn't happen, we need to do a Lou Lemoriello and can both of them and move on.  Other than our six years out of the playoffs in the 90's, we are really in a Dark Ages--the last six have had no playoff wins, three without a playoff period.  If we are close--it's time to prove it. Otherwise we say the DNA needs re-engineering. 

[flyercanuck]

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

I'll be a broken record.  The Hakstol-Hextall Combo has two years to enter the top 10 in points and win at least one series.  If that doesn't happen, we need to do a Lou Lemoriello and can both of them and move on.  Other than our six years out of the playoffs in the 90's, we are really in a Dark Ages--the last six have had no playoff wins, three without a playoff period.  If we are close--it's time to prove it. Otherwise we say the DNA needs re-engineering. 

 

I wouldn't say we're in dark ages. That would be if we're sitting where we are in the standings and have zero prospects and not many draft choices. We've had plenty of both of those since Hextall took over.

 

 We've got a potential #1 centre in Patrick. A #1 defenceman in Provorov and several other good looking young blueliners. The best goalie prospect we may have ever had in Hart and more than one other competent 'tender prospects behind him. Konecny is looking like he could become a good top line winger. And most of Hextalls picks haven't even become pros yet.

 

And two more first rounders (again) in this draft. Our past gms M.O. was maybe have ONE pick in the first two rounds. Hextall usually has 4 or 5.

 

 He hasn't gone out and been stupid through free agency. Yes he's signed a couple of not-so-great contracts(like every gm)...but not for 5-9 years. There's no Bryz/Vinnie or McDud deals. 

 

 If I told you when Hextall took over that by this past season he would have Patrick/Provorov/Konecny/Hart as his nucleus with one of the top prospect pools in the league while making the playoffs I'd bet you'd take it.

[OccamsRazor]

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

The Hakstol-Hextall Combo has two years to enter the top 10 in points and win at least one series.

 

Well one huge step this offseason that would help is for Ron to utilize the 17 million in cap space he has created to help propel this club up the steps to that at least another rung.

 

This offseason is huge for this club to get a boost to help them get there.

 

Myself sitting here after watching what i watch last year and my biggest question is in goal.

 

Elliott just wasn't the guy who could steal a game and i don't recall him ever doing it. He played ok.

 

But not what you could call a clear cut improvement to Steve Mason....and he will be 34 next year so i can't see his play improving.

 

So let's start there....who will be in net to push/challenge Elliott....and hopefully push Elliott to the backup spot where he belongs now???

[murraycraven]

21 hours ago, ruxpin said:

 

I really don't think they're that far off.

 

 

I still think they are 3, or more likely, 4 years away from contending honestly.   The new kids will need to get a feel for the NHL and Hart is not going to come right in and be Marty Broduer.  As it stands now it is too easy to get excited about Hart and I hope like hell he is everything we think he could be...  but it is Philly and goaltending...  well, you know the drill

 

Unless something happens and Hextall makes some notable moves to improve the team - which I think he will when the time is right.   

 

The bottom 6 needs to be addressed and they need a 3C that can provide some secondary scoring.  I still have reservations about G and Jake's production when this Team is finally coming together to make a run.  Hopefully, the kids take over the reigns and G/Jake are not counted on as much as they are currently.  

[murraycraven]

2 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I wouldn't say we're in dark ages. That would be if we're sitting where we are in the standings and have zero prospects and not many draft choices. We've had plenty of both of those since Hextall took over.

 

 We've got a potential #1 centre in Patrick. A #1 defenceman in Provorov and several other good looking young blueliners. The best goalie prospect we may have ever had in Hart and more than one other competent 'tender prospects behind him. Konecny is looking like he could become a good top line winger. And most of Hextalls picks haven't even become pros yet.

 

And two more first rounders (again) in this draft. Our past gms M.O. was maybe have ONE pick in the first two rounds. Hextall usually has 4 or 5.

 

 He hasn't gone out and been stupid through free agency. Yes he's signed a couple of not-so-great contracts(like every gm)...but not for 5-9 years. There's no Bryz/Vinnie or McDud deals. 

 

 If I told you when Hextall took over that by this past season he would have Patrick/Provorov/Konecny/Hart as his nucleus with one of the top prospect pools in the league while making the playoffs I'd bet you'd take it.

 

 

  

[ruxpin]

57 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

 

 

I still think they are 3, or more likely, 4 years away from contending honestly.   The new kids will need to get a feel for the NHL and Hart is not going to come right in and be Marty Broduer.  As it stands now it is too easy to get excited about Hart and I hope like hell he is everything we think he could be...  but it is Philly and goaltending...  well, you know the drill

 

Unless something happens and Hextall makes some notable moves to improve the team - which I think he will when the time is right.   

 

The bottom 6 needs to be addressed and they need a 3C that can provide some secondary scoring.  I still have reservations about G and Jake's production when this Team is finally coming together to make a run.  Hopefully, the kids take over the reigns and G/Jake are not counted on as much as they are currently.  

 

Here's the thing: They're already here.

 

They were a 98 point team with a 10-game losing streak.    Let that sink in for a moment.  They were 0-5-5.   Even just one win in that 10 and they're a 100-point team.  I realize they didn't but for the sake of fantasy, pretend they win 4 of those games.  4--3-3.  They're one point out of first behind what appears like will be the eventual Stanley Cup Champion (I'm going to go puke; I'll be right back. Enjoy this cute video of puppies while you wait).

 

 

Okay, I'm back.

So, I know the opposite argument could be made that they finished 2 points out of 5th in the division and 3 out of falling to 9th.

 

But the thing is, with a 10-game losing streak, with 2 rookies in and out of the lineup on defense, 2 other dmen with less than 3 years experience, questions on the bottom 6, shoddy goaltending and questionable coaching, we accomplished the above. 

 

 I'm not even talking about having to wait for Frost, Ratcliffe, the Vs, Morin, Hart, Sandstrom, etc.  You go with much the same team but switch out Manning for Myers and Sanheim, have someone competent replace Filppula and improve the penalty kill even slightly, you have to figure you're adding some points in the regular season.  And the only real adjustment you've made so far is Filppula goes away and you've made one signing or one of the Vs has worked.   Shore up the goaltending by having a competent counterpart to Elliott AND hold a gun to Hakstol's head to make sure he uses them right, and now you've probably won a playoff round, a second if things fall right.    And that's just next year.

 

So, "how close?"  If you're asking legitimate playoff team that's actually a threat to win a round or two, we're there if Hextall just makes one or two targeted moves.  He doesn't even need to mortgage anything and get ultra shiny.  He really just needs competent.  

 

If the question is how close to the cup, you do all of the above and then the following year (2019-20) start filtering in some of the other kids which will improve the bottom six significantly and you're probably playing Hart at least part-time, you might have a legitimate run.  I'd be stunned if we had a parade that June (unless it's the Sixers), but I've already been to one parade just this year that I would never have bet on. 

 

If --and this is all "if," right? -- all that goes according to plan and no one is driving Porsches or going fishing on motorboats or whatever, by the following year (2020-21) we should actually go in being a legit contender.   But don't rule out 2019-20, it is possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

33 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Here's the thing: They're already here.

 

I agree. A dude in net who can make a few 10 bell saves a game and just stop the ones he is suppose to stop could go a long way.

 

Just slap Quick (for example) on this team and i think they are in the Eastern conference finals no less........and no i am sober right now.

[murraycraven]

57 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

Here's the thing: They're already here.

 

They were a 98 point team with a 10-game losing streak.    Let that sink in for a moment.  They were 0-5-5.   Even just one win in that 10 and they're a 100-point team.  I realize they didn't but for the sake of fantasy, pretend they win 4 of those games.  4--3-3.  They're one point out of first behind what appears like will be the eventual Stanley Cup Champion (I'm going to go puke; I'll be right back. Enjoy this cute video of puppies while you wait).

 

 

Okay, I'm back.

So, I know the opposite argument could be made that they finished 2 points out of 5th in the division and 3 out of falling to 9th.

 

But the thing is, with a 10-game losing streak, with 2 rookies in and out of the lineup on defense, 2 other dmen with less than 3 years experience, questions on the bottom 6, shoddy goaltending and questionable coaching, we accomplished the above. 

 

 I'm not even talking about having to wait for Frost, Ratcliffe, the Vs, Morin, Hart, Sandstrom, etc.  You go with much the same team but switch out Manning for Myers and Sanheim, have someone competent replace Filppula and improve the penalty kill even slightly, you have to figure you're adding some points in the regular season.  And the only real adjustment you've made so far is Filppula goes away and you've made one signing or one of the Vs has worked.   Shore up the goaltending by having a competent counterpart to Elliott AND hold a gun to Hakstol's head to make sure he uses them right, and now you've probably won a playoff round, a second if things fall right.    And that's just next year.

 

So, "how close?"  If you're asking legitimate playoff team that's actually a threat to win a round or two, we're there if Hextall just makes one or two targeted moves.  He doesn't even need to mortgage anything and get ultra shiny.  He really just needs competent.  

 

If the question is how close to the cup, you do all of the above and then the following year (2019-20) start filtering in some of the other kids which will improve the bottom six significantly and you're probably playing Hart at least part-time, you might have a legitimate run.  I'd be stunned if we had a parade that June (unless it's the Sixers), but I've already been to one parade just this year that I would never have bet on. 

 

If --and this is all "if," right? -- all that goes according to plan and no one is driving Porsches or going fishing on motorboats or whatever, by the following year (2020-21) we should actually go in being a legit contender.   But don't rule out 2019-20, it is possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

dont get mad when Filp is back on a one year deal and Neuvy is out half the season 

 

I all seriousness...  I see your points and they are valid.  I also believe that G and Jake will not match the point totals they had this year.  Couts, and you know I love him, I suspect will not put up the goal totals as last year.   Just trying to be realistic b/c I really don't see this team being a "legitimate playoff contender" next year.   I want to but I just see another bubble team - please note that I am talking about today's roster and not what the roster could be after FA and the draft.

 

We are not winning anything with Neuvy and Elliott in the near term.  Simple fact of the matter - you need a legit goalie to earn a right into the advanced rounds of the finals.  Flower has come back to earth and is not looking anywhere near what he was while Holtby is playing very well.   

 

They can't win a series with the PK as it exists today.  They need to upgrade the PK and we certainly need ta 3C that can play the PK while providing scoring depth.  And Hexy, if you are reading, please stay away from giving Beagle and enormous contract!!!!!

 

And then there is the Coaching factor:  Does anyone on this board actually think Hak can make the adjustments that are necessary in a series?  If anything he seems to be outmatched most night when it comes to in-game adjustments.   This is not even accounting for his mind-numbing lineup decisions that appear on a nightly basis.

 

Everyone wanted to play the Caps and I still think they lose that series.  Am I excited for the future?  Sure...  do I think maybe they could push and win one series but I don't think this team is a legitimate contender next season considering the teams in the East.   If Hextall goes out and gets Tavares I would feel much better about being a contender but I think the chance of that happening is slim to none.

 

I do think in 3-4 years they will be a legit contender but prospects are just that... and their trajectory is up and down.  Not everyone is stepping into their rookie and second seasons and going to be great from the start.  

 

Please, I would love to be completely wrong.   Just trying to be realistic.

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, murraycraven said:

dont get mad when Filp is back on a one year deal and Neuvy is out half the season 

Sadly, I won't be shocked. And I do think it would amount to a white flag on this coming season.  If I'm not allowed to be mad, can I at least be quite irritated? 

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, murraycraven said:

And then there is the Coaching factor:  Does anyone on this board actually think Hak can make the adjustments that are necessary in a series?  If anything he seems to be outmatched most night when it comes to in-game adjustments.   This is not even accounting for his mind-numbing lineup decisions that appear on a nightly basis.

 

Everyone wanted to play the Caps and I still think they lose that series.

I'm with you on the coach. My answer to the opening question is, "I don't think so." 

 

I agree with you on the Caps. Going in, I actually thought they were the best option, but I would have been wrong. 

[mojo1917]

5 hours ago, murraycraven said:

Hart is not going to come right in and be Marty Broduer. 

why not, Murray did ? Holtby was very good. Gibson couldn't stay healthy but he was good from the drop.

Hart just might be really good from the jump also . It might not be wise to count on Hart being the second coming, but there's no reason to think he'll need 3 years in the bigs to "get it" .

 

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

why not, Murray did ? Holtby was very good. Gibson couldn't stay healthy but he was good from the drop.

Hart just might be really good from the jump also . It might not be wise to count on Hart being the second coming, but there's no reason to think he'll need 3 years in the bigs to "get it" .

 

 

As a 22 yr. old rookie, Ron Hextall took his team to the finals and lost in game 7 (turned 23 in late May).  It's not without precedent even on the Flyers.

[AJgoal]

48 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

As a 22 yr. old rookie, Ron Hextall took his team to the finals and lost in game 7 (turned 23 in late May).  It's not without precedent even on the Flyers.

 

Boucher had a very good playoff run in his rookie season as well. We all hope that Hart's overall career has a better trajectory, but it's certainly not unheard of for young goalies to come out of the gate well.

[ruxpin]

1 minute ago, AJgoal said:

 

Boucher had a very good playoff run in his rookie season as well. We all hope that Hart's overall career has a better trajectory, but it's certainly not unheard of for young goalies to come out of the gate well.

 

Yeah, not unheard of, though in @murraycraven's defense, it's not like it's common, either.  But the kid is supposed to be really good, so we'll see.

 

[ruxpin]

5 hours ago, murraycraven said:

Please, I would love to be completely wrong.   Just trying to be realistic.

 

I read your initial post as realism.  A little glass half-empty, but in the realm of realism (as opposed to pessimism).  

I was also in the realm of realism but way more optimistic than normal.  I've had a Snickers, so I'm more myself again.   I really do, though, expect to contend in 2020-21.   2019-20 is quite a bit optimistic/hopeful/drug-induced,  but I don't think absurd.

[RonJeremy]

Hextall and Boosh both played full seasons in the minors before coming up. Expecting Hart to jump from juniors  to pros is a reach. It would be great if he could,  but unlikely.  Anyone know if any real good goalies made the jump from junior to NHL?

[ruxpin]

7 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Hextall and Boosh both played full seasons in the minors before coming up. Expecting Hart to jump from juniors  to pros is a reach. It would be great if he could,  but unlikely.  Anyone know if any real good goalies made the jump from junior to NHL?

No one is expecting that, that I've seen. Certainly not me. The time table I laid out was AHL next year, NHL the year following (which is still a bit aggressive). Same age and AHL experience as John Gibson when he came up. One more year would probably be good IMO, but 2019-20 isn't absurd--provided he does play AHL next year. I don't know that that's the plan, though. 

[ruxpin]

@RonJeremy

 

Carey Price basically made the jump, but there were 10 games in the AHL on the way up.  I'm not about to make the silly argument of "well, Price did it," though. 

 

I do agree there should be a full season (at least) in the AHL for a goalie. 

[ruxpin]

6 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

-provided he does play AHL next year. I don't know that that's the plan, though. 

He turns 20 this summer, so I don't think he can stay in junior. So, I guess AHL it is. 

[AJgoal]

7 hours ago, ruxpin said:

shoddy goaltending

 

Stop me if you've heard this before in previous seasons: At even strength, the Flyers' goalies (well, the ones they were planning to use this season, at least) were at a minimum, above average. Neuvirth was 9th in even strength save percentage, and Elliott was 21st out of all goalies with 500+ minutes. On the PK, they were 5th and 6th worst (Elliott 0.812, Neuvirth 0.809). GA/60 were similarly pretty good at even strength, both coming in at just over 2 (2.09 for Neuvirth, 2.13 for Elliott), and similarly bad down a man (9.49/9.48). Now, part of that is that the Flyers did pretty well in limiting scoring chances - both were in the top half of fewest scoring chances faced at even strength.

 

What I found interesting is that the Flyers' goalies also faced below-average numbers of scoring chances and high-danger shots on the PK. So I looked back to last year. Steve Mason had an 0.8443 PK save percentage for the Flyers, while facing shot rates comparable to those Elliott/Neuvirth faced this year. This year, his save percentage went up to 0.87, even though Winnipeg allowed more quality chances on their PK. In comparison, Elliott had a 0.8729 while facing more chances against last season on Calgary, though he did face slightly fewer high-danger shot attempts. The fact that there is a negative correlation says that it's likely that the numbers are missing something in regards to the actual quality of those chances.

 

That's several years in a row that no matter who the goalie is, there was that big a discrepancy between even strength and penalty kill goalie performance. And the variances between Mason and Elliott's PK numbers from last year to this would seem to suggest that the penalty kill is the larger reason for the Flyers' goalies struggles down a man, though it is clearly not the only issue. The playoffs were certainly a different animal, of course. But I think if the Flyers made some adjustments to fix the penalty kill, we won't be complaining so much about shoddy goaltending.