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How Close Are The Flyers?


King Knut

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29 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

He turns 20 this summer, so I don't think he can stay in junior. So, I guess AHL it is. 

 

They could send him back for an overage season, but I doubt that that's the plan. There's really nothing more for him to do there.

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1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

we won't be complaining so much about shoddy goaltending.

I stand corrected. Neuvy was terrific in his 20 minutes. Lol

 

21st? Wow. I was too hard on him for not expecting top third. 

 

Kidding. Interesting post. 

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The coaching issue bothers me on another level as well.

 

By and large, I do think Hextall has done a good job as GM. That's not to say he's been without gaffes, but his tenure has led to the greatest prospect pool we've seen in ages, and I do think he's been a positive force overall by a significant margin.

 

Among his likely gaffes is unfortunately the coach. I place Hakstol in the opposite corner at this point. He really has done nothing to prove he belongs in the NHL and everything to prove he's prone to being outcoached by more seasoned and adaptive opposing coaches. I agree with others here in that I'm not convinced Hakstol can win a seven game series. A few games now and again during the regular season is one thing, but a protracted series is another completely. I think his inability to adjust strategy on the fly and tendency to favour weaker veteran players will continue to work against him against any good opposing coach.

 

My worry is that Hexy is making this into a both or nothing situation. I'm not sure we've gotten a real feel for what it means now that Comcast holds the reins in earnest. Snider was more predictable. I think he would have kept Hexy on and given him plenty of chances, even after the Hakstol experiment proves to be largely ineffective -- which I think it will. Who knows what the new ownership brass is thinking about this? 

 

Part of this is Hexy's fault of course. He should be looking for a new coach this off season imo, but he won't. If I'm a betting man, I'd say he won't be looking for a replacement next off season either, but he should. I admire his stubborn loyalty a lot. I do think it's a great trait that other GMs don't necessarily have (#homercoaster!!!). At the same time, I worry the end result will be us losing a very good GM because of his loyalty towards an ineffective coach.

 

Hopefully not, but it is a worry at this point.

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10 hours ago, ruxpin said:

I stand corrected. Neuvy was terrific in his 20 minutes. Lol

 

21st? Wow. I was too hard on him for not expecting top third. 

 

Kidding. Interesting post. 

 

That is top third. There are 80-some qualified goalies on that list ;)

 

But just for a reference, here are some of the guys with ES save% worse than Elliott: Murray, Lundqvist, Schneider, Reimer, Jones, Price, Holtby, Bishop, Andersen, Quick. Dubnyk is a virtual tie, 0.0001 higher. Now, shot quality was higher for everyone on that list save Schneider, Dubnyk, Price, Bishop, and Bernier, so that's going to be a factor. 

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15 hours ago, ruxpin said:

 

I read your initial post as realism.  A little glass half-empty, but in the realm of realism (as opposed to pessimism).  

I was also in the realm of realism but way more optimistic than normal.  I've had a Snickers, so I'm more myself again.   I really do, though, expect to contend in 2020-21.   2019-20 is quite a bit optimistic/hopeful/drug-induced,  but I don't think absurd.

 

LOL!   This made me laugh...

 

I am trying to be pessimistic but all by years of fandom have me just trying to put realistic expectations!   Maybe I should go eat a snickers for breakfast...

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18 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

why not, Murray did ? Holtby was very good. Gibson couldn't stay healthy but he was good from the drop.

Hart just might be really good from the jump also . It might not be wise to count on Hart being the second coming, but there's no reason to think he'll need 3 years in the bigs to "get it" .

 

 

believe me... I hope he is.   Although, I really don't think that is the norm in the league and I am not expecting Hart to even be on the team next year.  Maybe he has a stellar camp and the Flyers keep him on the roster.   I don't think it is likely given the way Hextall goes about his business.

 

Again, just being realistic.  

 

Seems like fans think that every prospect is going to pan out in the NHL.  While the prospect pool is very encouraging I still  think there will be some players that never live up to the potential.  

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14 hours ago, ruxpin said:

@RonJeremy

 

Carey Price basically made the jump, but there were 10 games in the AHL on the way up.  I'm not about to make the silly argument of "well, Price did it," though. 

 

I do agree there should be a full season (at least) in the AHL for a goalie. 

 

 

Just for the sake of it...  what happens if Hart comes into the AHL and does not play all that well?  I think the chances are slim based off his pedigree but this is Philly...

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2 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

 

 

Just for the sake of it...  what happens if Hart comes into the AHL and does not play all that well?  I think the chances are slim based off his pedigree but this is Philly...

 

It won't bother me if he starts out poorly...as long as he gets better as the season progresses. I'd be shocked if he actually made the Flyers. 

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36 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

 

 

Just for the sake of it...  what happens if Hart comes into the AHL and does not play all that well?  I think the chances are slim based off his pedigree but this is Philly...

I would hope the organization is able to coach him up and/or let him work through whatever is causing him trouble.

The nice thing the Flyers have going for them is the wild-card Felix Sandstrom...does he come over from the SHL and light it up ?

Will he push Hart to be great ? Will he be a bridge/gap guy ? 

So even if Hart poops the bed there to quote obi-wan "there is another" in-house player, Hextall has done a nice job of gathering good prospects.

 

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The Flyers have many pieces, they just need the puzzle to come together. Third in the division was nice, but also just a point above the Devils (a team not many around here sees as serious competition at this point) and two points out of missing the playoffs entirely. Sure if they didn't lose 10 in a row, they have more points. But they won ten in a row the season before and missed the playoffs.

 

They need their top two guys to be more than regular season powerhouses if they're going to get it done in the playoffs. Giroux has 10 points (3 goals) in his past 19 playoff games and Voracek has 8 (3 goals) over the same span.

 

More depth will obviously help. Couturier gives them a solid pivot on the first (and had a productive postseason with one fewer goal in five games than Giroux/Voracek have, combined, in their past 38). Couturier also allows Giroux to move to the wing where he had a resurgent year after trending down four straight and lets them put more talent on the second line. Patrick can give them a solid #2 option as he continues to develop. Getting some production from the bottom six would give them the depth that contending teams really need to succeed in the postseason (the Caps, for example, have nine guys with 5+ goals in the postseason).

 

A wild card is Simmonds, who clearly had a down year due to injury (while still potting 24 goals) and was ineffective in the postseason because of it. If he comes back strong, that can do two important things - give the Flyers added depth and/or make himself more valuable to acquire assets if they need to move him. My gut says Hextall wants to keep him, but if it becomes clear the price will be too high, it would be great to get more prospect depth going forward as a consolation prize.

 

Goaltending remains an issue no matter how the numbers get parsed. Elliott has been exposed in his past two playoff years and the Human Injury Machine was worse when he got the call this season. Both are pretty much filling space until some of the Highly Touted Goalie Prospects can emerge.

 

The continued development of the young D corps is another factor. You can see in Vegas that guys can only play above their heads for so long, and that's even with a goalie putting up .947 SV% in the first three rounds. Five guys with an average age of around 21 (Ghost, Haag, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers? Morin?) plus Andrew MacDonald is more than likely going to have ups and downs. Nevertheless, they are probably better off going young and getting them developed.

 

I'm not convinced that the organization sees it the same way.

 

All of this bodes well for the "3-4" year time frame - especially if Hart pans out as an NHL starter (since Price, the last 10 CHL goalies of the year played a combined 69 games in the NHL last season). Of course, if things come together on the ice, they could be "closer."

 

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees). Heck, even Tronno has some pieces. And that's before you even look out West.

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On 6/6/2018 at 12:22 PM, OccamsRazor said:

 

I agree. A dude in net who can make a few 10 bell saves a game and just stop the ones he is suppose to stop could go a long way.

 

Just slap Quick (for example) on this team and i think they are in the Eastern conference finals no less........and no i am sober right now.

 

I agree with that.  The Flyers didn't play particularly well or even good against the penguins, but I think they could have won that series with half decent goaltending.

 

It wasn't all just bad goalies, but they got absolutely crap goaltending that series.  The games when it wasn't terrible, they won.  

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On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

 

Goaltending remains an issue no matter how the numbers get parsed. Elliott has been exposed in his past two playoff years and the Human Injury Machine was worse when he got the call this season. Both are pretty much filling space until some of the Highly Touted Goalie Prospects can emerge.

 

The continued development of the young D corps is another factor. You can see in Vegas that guys can only play above their heads for so long, and that's even with a goalie putting up .947 SV% in the first three rounds. Five guys with an average age of around 21 (Ghost, Haag, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers? Morin?) plus Andrew MacDonald is more than likely going to have ups and downs. Nevertheless, they are probably better off going young and getting them developed.

 

I'm not convinced that the organization sees it the same way.

 

All of this bodes well for the "3-4" year time frame - especially if Hart pans out as an NHL starter (since Price, the last 10 CHL goalies of the year played a combined 69 games in the NHL last season). Of course, if things come together on the ice, they could be "closer."

 

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees). Heck, even Tronno has some pieces. And that's before you even look out West.

 

 

On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

 

Goaltending remains an issue no matter how the numbers get parsed. Elliott has been exposed in his past two playoff years and the Human Injury Machine was worse when he got the call this season. Both are pretty much filling space until some of the Highly Touted Goalie Prospects can emerge.

 

 

You're absolutely right about the goaltending, but while I don't think Elliott is some golden god, I do think the major problem with him was that he shouldn't have been playing yet.  He'd just had core abdominal surgery and while he may have been medically cleared to play without reinjuring himself, he wasn't going to be close to 100%.  Sadly Elliott at 60% was still the team's best option at that point.  I don't think it can realistically be attributed to him sucking in the playoffs.

 

On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

I'm not convinced that the organization sees it the same way.

 

 

We'll see.  I don't want to see Gudas in Orange and Black ever again, for the benefit of both to be honest.  But unless they resign Manning (which Hextall has said isn't really in the cards). I have hope.  Mac and Sanheim were kind of fantastic down the stretch (one of the best pairings in hockey by a lot of measures actually WHICH I KNOW SOUNDS CRAZY).  

 

On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

All of this bodes well for the "3-4" year time frame - especially if Hart pans out as an NHL starter (since Price, the last 10 CHL goalies of the year played a combined 69 games in the NHL last season). Of course, if things come together on the ice, they could be "closer."

 

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees). Heck, even Tronno has some pieces. And that's before you even look out West.

 

If they can do SOMETHING, ANYTHING with the goaltending, I really expect this to be happening next year or the year after.  Not saying they'll win a cup, but I expect them to be really moving forward and looking like the team we'd want and not just toying with us.  As always, the goaltending and Hakstol are my biggest question marks.  But if they can do SOMETHING with the goalies now, they'll be good before Hart comes up and thus there should be less pressure on him and he can just focus on being good instead of being a savior.  

 

On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees). Heck, even Tronno has some pieces. And that's before you even look out West.

 

Tampa and Columbus maybe.  I really feel like Washington and Pittsburgh are cresting the top of the mountain.  It was mostly Sullivan and our goalies, but Pittsburgh did make the Flyers look foolish... at the same time though, their play after wasn't that impressive to me and they didn't have a particularly good season on the whole.  Washington just won the cup, but I would have picked the Flyers against them any day after the way they played each other this year.  They've never really impressed me on the whole.  They just seemed to be clicking this post season and getting the bounces, but frankly, I don't think they looked that good at any point.  They won and I'm not trying to take that away from them, I'm just surprised because I just didn't think they looked that good.  

 

In two years, I'm more worried about Tampa, Toronto, those Pesky friggin' Devils that really seem to have a deal with the actual Devil from what it seems, and color me crazy, but I'm a little terrified of what the Rangers are going to do over the next two years with all that cap space and without Nash.  

 

On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

 

 

All of this bodes well for the "3-4" year time frame - especially if Hart pans out as an NHL starter (since Price, the last 10 CHL goalies of the year played a combined 69 games in the NHL last season). Of course, if things come together on the ice, they could be "closer."

 

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees). Heck, even Tronno has some pieces. And that's before you even look out West.

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On 6/7/2018 at 11:56 AM, radoran said:

At that point, one needs to compare where they are with the competition in the rest of the Conference and the League. Other teams aren't just treading water. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Columbus all have solid cores with goalies in place (and have playoff pedigrees).

 

Really terrific post all around, rad.   The above is important, but in 3-4 years I'm more concerned with some of the "not there" teams than the above.

 

Believe it or not, Crosby is 31 this summer (he seems like he was a 20-something for 20-something years!).  That puts him 33-34 years old.  That's not ancient, but he's already played for forever and it's 3-4 more years on a guy that's one solid hit to the head away from a cabinet appointment.  Similar with Malkin, who will be 32 this summer.   He played 78 games this year, but that's the most in 10 years.  I'm not wishing anything bad on either one, but they've played a lot of hockey the past few years.  I'm not saying they're done or anything, but by the time the Flyers are ready for prime time, the Pens might not be their primary concern.

 

Washington may actually be the same in 2-4 years.  Ovechkin is not a spring overchicken and he finally got the brass ring.  I'm wondering how focused he remains going forward.  Even Eminger...er...Carlson will be 31 or 32, and that's only even relevant assuming he resigns there and doesn't follow the Brinks truck.   I'm not saying either Pitt or Washington won't exist, but I think they may be falling back in 2-3 years.

 

Tampa seems well-positioned to be good still, but even Stamkos and Johnson will be in their low 30s.  They'll need to do some work to stay on top.  I'm not as concerned with them (I'm not actually "concerned" about any of them falling back).

 

Columbus is not an issue until proven otherwise.  For all the kvetching about their goalie, he has a career track record of being worthless in the playoffs.

 

But your point remains valid to me.  Teams like New Jersey, Toronto are on the upswing.  Maybe even Carolina, Florida and...gulp..Buffalo by then.  So, you'll have the teams you mentioned probably sliding back but still around and teams not there now but on the way up all thrown in together.  So, like you said, we can't pretend this is all happening to the Flyers operating in a bubble.

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The Flyers aren't very far away now. They've got a top line, an emerging 2nd line, some components to build a third and fourth line. If they keep Giroux - Couturier - Konecny together, Lindblom - Patrick - Voracek together, they could put together a third line of Laughton - Free Agent Center - Simmonds/NAK and a fourth line of Raffl - Vorobyov - Vecchione and they're good. 

 

The defense will require a bit more patience. Right now, the top pairing should be Provorov - Gostisbehere. Sanheim should be on the second pairing and a third pairing should be Hagg with someone else. The problem is - who do you use on the second and third pairing. Do the Flyers believe that Gudas just had a bad year and will recover next year? He always seems to play really well when partnered with a puck mover (he played well with Del Zotto and Gostisbehere in the past), so I really believe last season was an aberration. If he returns to form this upcoming year, that leaves one spot on the third pairing with Hagg. Do they use MacDonald there or do they move Hagg back to the left side and use Meyers on the right side? If so, that's an awfully young defense going forward. So it's going to take a year or two for everyone to get comfortable.

 

The only other position of need is goaltending. The Flyers need a legitimate starter. Elliott is a great team guy, but he's not a long term solution to the spot. Neuvirth can't stay healthy. Nobody wants to rush Hart or Sandstrom. So, we're kind of stuck with the situation there right now until Hart, Sandstrom or someone else steps up and takes the reins. It's a two year window there.

 

So yeah, I really believe the Flyers are two years away from being legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Right now, they've got great ability to make noise in the playoffs and I think this is a really big year coming up in terms of taking the next step forward. They need a legitimate penalty kill though if they stand any chance at competing. They can't continue to be in the bottom third of the league with their PK. Hakstol also needs to sharpen up and get up to speed with his coaching decisions. Quit pissing around and quit your jerking around younger players and force feeding ice time to mediocre veterans. Let the young guys take their lumps and learn from their mistakes. It's the only way they're going to get better.

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You guys are getting me all amped up now as there have been periods during this rebuild where attending games felt more like work than a diversion especially when the team is doing frustrating things.  I yearn for the days when we were perennial contenders and were unbeatable at home.  Here’s to hoping that we return to those days again soon!

 

BTW I love too hearing your thoughts on the Caps / Pens future decline.  I’m sick to death of them both and look forward to the end of that era as well.

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On 6/7/2018 at 7:43 AM, elmatus said:

Snider was more predictable. 

 

But not in a good way necessarily.  This is the first time since maybe the 80's that the Flyers have been trying to build a team from within at a realistic pace. Snider was predicably, WIN NOW!!!! 

 

They were sort of on that path in the early 90's when they started missing the playoffs, but then Lindros came along and WHAM!  Crazy town!  And it's pretty much been crazy town ever since.  The advent of the cap made the Snider School obsolete.  He should have fought harder against it if he didn't want to have to change the way his team does business.

 

On 6/7/2018 at 7:43 AM, elmatus said:

Part of this is Hexy's fault of course. He should be looking for a new coach this off season imo, but he won't. If I'm a betting man, I'd say he won't be looking for a replacement next off season either, but he should. I admire his stubborn loyalty a lot. I do think it's a great trait that other GMs don't necessarily have (#homercoaster!!!). At the same time, I worry the end result will be us losing a very good GM because of his loyalty towards an ineffective coach.

 

Hopefully not, but it is a worry at this point.

 

I'm not sure I blame or care about Hextall signing Hakstol for the job, I'm not even concerned about Hextall keeping him past the point of knowing he doesn't have the NHL game down and probably never will.  I'm concerned about him keeping him past that point AND the point of the team actually being ready to compete.  I think that starts whatever year it looks like they have a SOLID goalie (not excellent... not necessarily Hart, just one that doesn't suck but also won't pass out in between faceoffs).   If Hakstol is making the same head scratching green mistakes and costing what should now be a truly competitive team points and playoff positioning, then it will be time for him to go.  he's got until then to get it sorted out for me.  

 

As it is, I believe a more savvy coach could have gotten them the points they needed to have ended up in first place (remember they were tied for a day or so during the push, but then Lyon and Mrazek became the tandem).  They weren't getting anywhere this year regardless of who the coach was specifically because of the goalies all being hurt at the same time.  But the minute that's not the case, Hakstol has to go.  

 

 

 

 

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On 6/8/2018 at 11:07 PM, Poulin20 said:

You guys are getting me all amped up now as there have been periods during this rebuild where attending games felt more like work than a diversion especially when the team is doing frustrating things.  I yearn for the days when we were perennial contenders and were unbeatable at home.  Here’s to hoping that we return to those days again soon!

 

BTW I love too hearing your thoughts on the Caps / Pens future decline.  I’m sick to death of them both and look forward to the end of that era as well.

 

Keep in mind that the Metro is a very tight division and the last 3 cup winners came out of it.  

The Flyers skated circles around the capitals this year during the season.  They owned them.

The Devils Owned the Penguins this season during the season at the same time.  

 

In the metro, the difference between first place and the last team to qualify for the playoffs was 8 points.  

Only the Pacific was remotely as close and their equivalent of the Devils (5th place) was a full 25 points out of first.  

Even the Rangers were not only the best last place team in any division, but they were far and away the last place team was as close to first place in any division as well.   


Freaky as it sounds to say out loud, the Metro is the best division in hockey right now.  The Flyers aren't doing badly at all.  

I actually think they're ahead of schedule on the rebuild and if they can just escape having the worst PK in the league and getting a goalie who can stay conscious for 60 minutes, I truly think they'll be onto something.  I really like the team that's waiting to emerge if only Hakstol COULD and WOULD put it on the ice.  

 

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On 6/6/2018 at 4:16 PM, mojo1917 said:

why not, Murray did ? Holtby was very good. Gibson couldn't stay healthy but he was good from the drop.

Hart just might be really good from the jump also . It might not be wise to count on Hart being the second coming, but there's no reason to think he'll need 3 years in the bigs to "get it" .

 

 

I really want them to take their damn time with Hart.  

The thing to keep in mind about Hart is that all the goalies he's keeping company with in history and all the names whose records he's broken and won goalie of the year more times than... most of them didn't pan out to be much.  Some did.  Not a ton.  

 

Which isn't to say he isn't going to be good.  Very good.  Even great.  

 

I just want them to take their time with him.  He's the man of the future.  None of this horse crap they put Morin through.  Just let him know the job is his when he's ready, then let him go take the time he needs to be ready.

 

Sandstrom is going to be ready soon.  Stolarz will be a capable NHL backup when healthy I believe.  My jury is utterly out on Lyon.  I have no idea what to think.  But there are plenty of good goalies out there who can keep things warm in the mean time.  I for one am very hot on Anders Nillson.  Nothing amazing.  Nothing special.  Just consistently good in the backup role and ready for a shot at more in the right place... say a place with a bunch of young goalie talent to step in if he falters.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, King Knut said:

In the metro, the difference between first place and the last team to qualify for the playoffs was 8 points.  

 

Even more reason to not take good goaltending lightly.

 

Just look at the goalies who skate for the other teams.

 

With the exception of the Isles well because they are Isles only the Flyer skate out some scrub journeyman.

 

You get what you pay for.

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So, I asked this in the draft thread, but I'll ask it here as well.

 

If you're the Flyers and you come to #50 and either or both of Jakub Skarek or Olivier Rodrigue are there (both goalies), do you use your 2nd rounder on a goalie or wait?

 

With two first rounders already in the bank (assuming we use both), I think I keep taking a goalie until someone latches on and stays.   Thoughts?

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10 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Even more reason to not take good goaltending lightly.

 

Just look at the goalies who skate for the other teams.

 

With the exception of the Isles well because they are Isles only the Flyer skate out some scrub journeyman.

 

You get what you pay for.

 

For the last 18 years of Flyers History, I agree with you, but this is the one instance since they gave up on Boucher as a starter that I excuse not investing in a good solid #1 guy.  (I don't count Bryzgalov-how was a psych eval not part of the vetting process???)

 

With Hart and Sandstrom and Stolarz looking the way they were (like an eventual 1-2 is coming out of them somehow) last year, it wouldn't have made sense to dig too deeply on a good goalie then.  However, the fact that they haven't been able to manage it for the past 18 years has been very problematic.  If they'd taken it more seriously, maybe they'd have homegrown their own by last year?!

 

 

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47 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

With Hart and Sandstrom

 

Yeah but those guys should be handled the right way so they are 2-3 years away right now.

 

They should have explored another option last year instead of Elliott. So getting a stop gap for 3-4 years would have been doable.

 

But first you have to not settle in order to look further....which isn't what the Flyers did. They settled.

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Just now, OccamsRazor said:

 

Yeah but those guys should be handled the right way so they are 2-3 years away right now.

 

They should have explored another option last year instead of Elliott. So getting a stop gap for 3-4 years would have been doable.

 

But first you have to not settle in order to look further....which isn't what the Flyers did. They settled.

 

Who?  

Bernier?

 

i still really like Nilsson but he’s never had a starter’s workload. 

 

 Besides that factor, the thing with Elliott wasn’t that he was bad.  It wasn’t even that he was old.  It was hat he played like 30 games in a row and (as we heard later) every minute of intense practices. 

 

Neuvy is glass, but what NHL goalie holds up under those conditions?  Let alone what 32 year old?  

 

Signing him wasn’t stupid.  The way the handled was

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17 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Who?

 

Don't know there are options insert a name.

 

And more than one way to get the guy you think can do the job.

 

As i said first you have to want to go him and by that i mean not settling for an Elliott.

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