Carter Hart Expectations for the 2018-19 Season

[jammer2]

13 hours ago, Howie58 said:

I have a feeling Hextall will have to start thinning the herd. Maybe one of the prospects goes. 

 

 I can see Stolarz getting traded, to many young goalies, not enough AHL spots.

 

 

 

[AJgoal]

Well, only Hart is waiver exempt, so it's possible that one of Lyon or Stolarz gets nabbed if they're waived. Not sure it's likely, but I didn't think anyone would claim Alt, so who knows. 

[elmatus]

5 hours ago, vis said:

See my response above.

 

If he, as expected, starts the season in the AHL and subsequently outperforms Lyon and Stolarz (which may not be that farfetched), should he not get a call up - particularly if both goalies go down?  It wouldn't surprise me for Hart to have a rough start in the AHL, but it wouldn't surprise me if he catches on pretty quick down there and may earns a big slice of net.  If Elliott and/or Neuvirth go down toward the end of the season, Hart may have played himself into a call-up by then. 

 

Well, I mean anything is possible of course. I think a lot would have to go very very well for it to happen, but anything is possible.

 

As I mentioned in a previous post, Hart would have to blow people away in camp as a first step. He would then have to win the starting job and essentially prove he's too good for the AHL. If he can do all of those things in his first pro year, then yeah I could see it. Otherwise, I expect Hexy will stay on the prudent path.

 

Much like a similar discussion we've been having on Frost's chances of making the line up as a 3C, Hart does have the advantage of really having meager competition for the role at best. The question then becomes: Do you risk rushing a potential franchise goalie because your current starter was ranked 32nd among NHL goalies last season, or do you let him get at least one year of pro-level play before tossing him to the hounds?

 

I don't have an answer for that. I just hope whatever Hexy decides ends up being the right decision for Hart. 

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, vis said:

But if he's playing better than both, should he not get a call up ahead of them?

 

It's hard to say. I'm glad i don't have to make that call. I will defer to Ron to make that call.

[murraycraven]

it is been so long since we had a real goalie prospect to be excited about (sans bob).  Let the kid develop at his own pace and when the time is right bring him up.  The organization should not push Hart into the lineup.  As Hexy states:  "He has to earn it..."  I would keep in the AHL all year frankly and let him adjust to the pro level.

[OccamsRazor]

@elmatus

 

 

Call me over optimistic but if this kid takes the next step and is left on the top line for the year i think he can easily pot 30+ goals this year.

 

I would love to see more of this the upcoming year...

 

 

 

 

#skyisthelimit

 

 

 

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

@elmatus

 

 

Call me over optimistic but if this kid takes the next step and is left on the top line for the year i think he can easily pot 30+ goals this year.

 

I would love to see more of this the upcoming year...

 

 

 

 

#skyisthelimit

 

 

 

 

I’m with you 100%. TK is dynamite. I would not be shocked in the slightest if he led the team in goals. 

[Bertmega]

On 8/27/2018 at 10:26 AM, flyercanuck said:

 

 

 Let's see how Hart handles the AHL before throwing him into a hornets nest. Of all our prospects I'd say this is the guy we'd better damn well be the most careful with.

Exactly! As Flyers fans we have waited long enough to secure a home grown talent (sans Bobrovsky), waiting a little longer for the sake of developing  a goalie that could be with the team for the next decade is well worth the wait. 

[vis]

On 8/29/2018 at 8:03 AM, elmatus said:

I don't have an answer for that. I just hope whatever Hexy decides ends up being the right decision for Hart. 

I hear you.  It's funny, because on one hand Hextall has said that young players will play if they are better than the players in front of them.  But, he doesn't want to rush young players along in their development.

 

The only fact pattern where I think Hart could get time is if he's outplaying Lyon and Stolarz - which I think is a fair possibility - and both Elliott and Neuvirth are hurt at the same time - whch I think is also a fair possibility.  To be clear, I wouldn't bring up Hart to sit on the bench and backup Elliott or Neuvirth even if Hart has outplayed Lyon and Stolarz.  That would make no sense to me.

 

If Hart is called up to start in those circumstances, that doesn't mean he's the starter going forward or heading into the following season.  I would view any call up in these circumstances as strictly emergency and not adjusting the plan on a go-forward basis.

[brelic]

2 hours ago, vis said:

I hear you.  It's funny, because on one hand Hextall has said that young players will play if they are better than the players in front of them.  But, he doesn't want to rush young players along in their development.

 

That's true, but I think there are a few caveats in their approach.

 

1) "Better" is very subjective. It means different things to different people. On top of that, "better" in preseason play, I would say, doesn't carry nearly as much weight as proving it over a longer time period and in different situations (regular season, playoffs, during winning streaks, during losing streaks, against tougher opponents, etc). 

 

2) Decisions are not just made regarding on-ice play. There were rumours (I believe well-founded) that Sanheim's "issues" were more about off-ice / maturity levels than on-ice play. Not in a negative way, but just that there was a mental component that was not quite there yet. 

 

3) To add to the "better" argument, Hextall has stated on more than a few occasions that a player also has to demonstrate that he's prepared mentally and physically to play at that level over a full season. I'm not sure how they assess that, but they obviously have things they watch for. 

 

2 hours ago, vis said:

 

The only fact pattern where I think Hart could get time is if he's outplaying Lyon and Stolarz - which I think is a fair possibility - and both Elliott and Neuvirth are hurt at the same time - whch I think is also a fair possibility.  To be clear, I wouldn't bring up Hart to sit on the bench and backup Elliott or Neuvirth even if Hart has outplayed Lyon and Stolarz.  That would make no sense to me.

 

If Hart is called up to start in those circumstances, that doesn't mean he's the starter going forward or heading into the following season.  I would view any call up in these circumstances as strictly emergency and not adjusting the plan on a go-forward basis.

 

Agreed. I think that's the most likely scenario for Hart to get any NHL time this year. Stranger things have happened, though. 

 

So IIRC, anyone called up to replace an injured player is not subject to waivers, right? In the case of goalies, you need to dress two, so if (when??) one is hurt, whoever they call up would be on an emergency basis. That fact really gives the edge to Lyon and Stolarz over Hart at this point in their development. 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, brelic said:

 

So IIRC, anyone called up to replace an injured player is not subject to waivers, right?

 

 

Yes if called up Stolie and Lyon would require waivers to be sent back down.

 

They will require waivers to be assigned to the AHL to even begin the season. And both could be plucked in the process.

 

However if they are plucked they will have to be on the NHL roster they can not be claimed and assigned to the claiming teams AHL club.

 

Hart would not require waivers in either situation.

 

It is a gamble and Hextall will have to time it perfectly like he tried years back to waive them when he thinks teams around the league are close to having their rosters set and won't be taking them. Yet he miscalculated with Chris Porter and the Wild claimed him.

 

Just like many including me didn't think Alt would get claimed. Yet he did.

 

 

[brelic]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Yes if called up Stolie and Lyon would require waivers to be sent back down.

 

They will require waivers to be assigned to the AHL to even begin the season. And both could be plucked in the process.

 

However if they are plucked they will have to be on the NHL roster they can not be claimed and assigned to the claiming teams AHL club.

 

Hart would not require waivers in either situation.

 

It is a gamble and Hextall will have to time it perfectly like he tried years back to waive them when he thinks teams around the league are close to having their rosters set and won't be taking them. Yet he miscalculated with Chris Porter and the Wild claimed him.

 

Just like many including me didn't think Alt would get claimed. Yet he did.

 

 

 

But do waivers apply in an emergency situation like having one healthy goalie?

[OccamsRazor]

19 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

But do waivers apply in an emergency situation like having one healthy goalie?

 

That I can't say for sure.

 

Maybe someone here knows.

[AJgoal]

No. If a condition existed where the Flyers could not dress two goaltenders due to illness or injury, they could recall a goalie under emergency conditions without subjecting them to waivers when they get sent down again. However, they must be sent down immediately after the emergency has passed. 

 

Makes me wonder though. Hypothetically, let's say Neuvirth gets hurt (not hypothetical) and Lyon comes up and plays lights out, looks like the second coming of Jacques Plante, and the Flyers want to keep him up. Could they just waive Neuvirth to the Phantoms? Or would they have to send Lyon down and do some sort of weird paper transaction thing to get him back up under non-emergency conditions?

[FD19372]

With Elliot being flat out bad in stretched last season - and Neuvirth injury prone, I want to see if the patience Hextall is preaching is severely tested if they get off to a bad start. I would like to get Hart up here with the big club in a backup role, and see what he can do. Maybe he runs with it, plays well and steals the starting goaltending job.

[FD19372]

1 hour ago, FD19372 said:

With Elliot being flat out bad in stretched last season - and Neuvirth injury prone, I want to see if the patience Hextall is preaching is severely tested if they get off to a bad start. I would like to get Hart up here with the big club in a backup role, and see what he can do. Maybe he runs with it, plays well and steals the starting goaltending job.

*in stretches

[ruxpin]

On 8/27/2018 at 10:26 AM, flyercanuck said:

There was exactly ZERO 20 year olds

What about goalies people *thought* were 19?

[ruxpin]

I know he was only drafted in 2016 and he's only 19 20 years old, but does it seem to anyone else like he's been flyers' property (and we've been waiting) for like a decade? 

 

It really seems like an eternity. 

 

I'd be stunned if Hart plays in the NHL this year even if his butt was stapled to the bench as an emergency back up.  Stolarz and Lyon will be the calls up before Hart. Let him get a good solid year playing against grown ups.  No sense being impatient now...though I really do understand the urge. 

[hf101]

12 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Stolarz and Lyon will be the calls up before Hart.

 

I'm not so sure on that as Stolarz and Lyon can be claimed on waivers if sent back down which could easily give Hart the advantage for short-term call-ups.

 

And let us just say what if Hart is playing the same superior way he had in juniors in the pre-season and AHL with a 2.00 GAA or less compared to a 2.8 or greater GAA for Lyon or Stolarz over the same amount of time?  Hextall has always said if a rookie outplays a veteran they will earn a spot, and he has been rather true with that statement. With the instability of both Elliot and Neuvy I can easily rationalize a scenario where Hart is playing for the Flyers.  If he plays well while given games he could also stay with the Orange and Black.

 

Maybe that is a lot of IFS, but if Hart really is an exceptional goalie I believe he can earn his way on the Flyers roster without needing set amount of time in the AHL this season.

[ruxpin]

7 minutes ago, hf101 said:

 

I'm not so sure on that as Stolarz and Lyon can be claimed on waivers if sent back down which could easily give Hart the advantage for short-term call-ups.

 

And let us just say what if Hart is playing the same superior way he had in juniors in the pre-season and AHL with a 2.00 GAA or less compared to a 2.8 or greater GAA for Lyon or Stolarz over the same amount of time?  Hextall has always said if a rookie outplays a veteran they will earn a spot, and he has been rather true with that statement. With the instability of both Elliot and Neuvy I can easily rationalize a scenario where Hart is playing for the Flyers.  If he plays well while given games he could also stay with the Orange and Black.

 

Maybe that is a lot of IFS, but if Hart really is an exceptional goalie I believe he can earn his way on the Flyers roster without needing set amount of time in the AHL this season.

I really think the odds of damage far outweigh the very small numbers of benefit. There's a reason this is extremely rarely done. 

[hf101]

7 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I really think the odds of damage far outweigh the very small numbers of benefit. There's a reason this is extremely rarely done. 

 

I guess we will see soon.

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, hf101 said:

Maybe that is a lot of IFS, but if Hart really is an exceptional goalie I believe he can earn his way on the Flyers roster without needing set amount of time in the AHL this season.

 

You're not wrong. But the truth is even exceptional goalies as we know them only very rarely follow this type of trajectory. The vast majority of goalies, including any we might today call exceptional, barely play a game in the NHL before their early to mid 20s. It's extremely rare to have such a young goalie hit the NHL and become a mainstay. Fleury is really the last one I can remember?

 

Vasilevsky played two years vs men in the KHL, followed by two season where he started in the AHL (got call ups both years though). Still, that's at least a good amount of experience vs men.

 

Hellebuyck played one full AHL season and then part of a second before getting called up in a back up role. He was 23 by then. Price followed almost the exact same route to the letter.

 

I was also wrong about Fleury. He played in the AHL for a season before getting on to the Pens full-time.

 

And because it should always be mentioned: Bob played two years in the KHL before we brought him in and subsequently tossed him to the hounds for a pittance.

 

All to say that 20 year old goalies coming straight to the NHL without playing somewhere vs men is very rare, even among the most elite grouping of goalies. That's not to say it's impossible, especially considering our current situation, it just makes it very unlikely imo. Simply put, the difference between juniors and playing vs men is huge. Asking a goalie to make that leap is not a decision to be made lightly.

[OccamsRazor]

6 hours ago, elmatus said:

Price followed almost the exact same route to the letter.

 

No Price only played 12 total games in the AHL over two different seasons.

 

Two his last year after Tri-City was done with junior playoffs.

 

A junior career were he barely finished .500 and had no where close to the numbers Hart had.

 

And the following year he played 10 games and never looked back.

 

Just pointing that out.

 

Regardless i want Hart to get his seasoning in the AHL i wouldn't even think about calling him up unless he is lighting the AHL world on fire and every other goalie is hurt and stinking it to high heaven.

 

Too much is riding on this kid (right or wrong) let's give him the time he needs.

[ruxpin]

19 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Too much is riding on this kid (right or wrong) let's give him the time he needs

And for the love of God, do NOT give him a Porsche. 

[OccamsRazor]

15 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

And for the love of God, do NOT give him a Porsche. 

 

Or let him go boating in Canada....