All good points, @pilldoc , @yave1964
There IS no getting around that he has small sample sizes to go with.
Bolts ARE taking a bit of a chance here although as I stated in my opening post, they do have an "out" of sorts over the next 3 years or so, before any NTC's kick in.
Before then, how he trends should come into focus.
I tried focusing on the positives of this deal, but I know this could backfire on TB if he cannot continue to do what he has shown in the smaller sample sizes.
As for you list, @pilldoc
Some of those players I feel Gourde CAN be classified with, some not so much.
This salary bracket, the 4-5M range, is interesting because you usually find a bunch of guys who can either be totally worth that money, or some that just look grossly overpaid.
As an example, I'd say a guy like Gourde would compare favorably with say, Patric Hornqvist.
Of course, Hornqvist has a longer track record, and anyone who says Gourde does NOT compare to him would use that.
You make valid points. Karlsson is a great example.... one (1) fantastic year does not make a great player. He shot an totally un repeatable 23.4 SH% when his CSH% is only 14%. Right now Karlsson is shooting at 14 SH%. As of now in 13 games he only has 3G / 7A = 10 PT on 21 SOG. He projects at 19G / 44A for 63 PTS. Vegas IMO vastly overpaid for his services. There are going to be a lot of disappointed Golden Knight fans when he comes way short in his prod