Nylander Signs

[hobie]

Outside of the obvious goals and assists offensive stats, Nylander has started very strongly even better than I expected.

 

Quote

The goals will come soon for Nylander

Again, comparing that number to the rest of the league, Nylander is actually now in the ninth-percentile of players in SOG/60. That’s the type of number that is so easy to digest and understand why as a fanbase, no one should be worried that he still has a zero in the goals column.

https://mapleleafsnation.com/2018/12/19/the-goals-will-come-soon-for-nylander/

 

We, Leaf fans, can see Nylander's value beyond the simple offensive stats but those stats are sure to follow.

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 12/19/2018 at 2:55 PM, Hockey-78 said:

William Nylander: so far 6 games, 2 assists 8 PIM and -1.

 

Good signing? I wouldn't plan the parade just yet...

 

Karma is telling the Leafs they're going to pay dearly for not addressing the team's most pressing need. 

[JR Ewing]

I think it was fair to expect a slow start, at least as far as the counting numbers go. He had a late start and everybody else in the league had already been playing for two months. I think he'll come around.

 

[BluPuk]

I have changed my opinion of young Kyle Dubas' over this signing. 

[Hockey-78]

1 hour ago, BluPuk said:

I have changed my opinion of young Kyle Dubas' over this signing. 

And what is your updated opinion?

[Hockey-78]

On 12/20/2018 at 6:52 AM, hobie said:

Outside of the obvious goals and assists offensive stats, Nylander has started very strongly even better than I expected.

 

We, Leaf fans, can see Nylander's value beyond the simple offensive stats but those stats are sure to follow.

Care to elaborate regarding his value?

 

Against the Rags Nylander had ZERO goals, assists, SOG, hits, blks and a lousy FO %. What does he bring to the table? You seem to be winning nicely, with or without him.

[hobie]

Kadri is his line's driver but he's no Tavares, Marner or Matthews so he and his line weren't scoring especially with his reduced icetime. Since Nylander has returned Kadri is putting up nearly a point per game. Teams can no longer concentrate on Kadri freeing up space because if you face the Kadri line now Nylander is the greatest concern.

 

Nylander beyond points has a great value in that he is able to get the puck into the opposition's end under control and he hasn't lost that. 

 

TO continues to win even tho Nylander is struggling putting points up but I think this would be normal for a player who has missed 2 months, I expected him to struggle all year as some players have done so by just missing training camps.

 

Matthews is also struggling 5v5 and he eagerly awaits Nylander which might not happen because Babs likes the lines to be balanced. 

 

Nylander put up 13 points in 22 games before Matthews, his rookie year, so it's just a matter of time.

[BluPuk]

21 hours ago, Hockey-78 said:

And what is your updated opinion?

That he made a big mistake. I just can't see Nylander ever earning his huge salary. Trading him will leave us holding at least half of his salary and not getting a 7.9 million dollar player back..

Having an eye for talent is not something that can be taught. Maybe we should have gone for Mark Hunter to replace Lou L.

[Buffalo Rick]

So how much money do they have now to spend on Marner and Matthews?

[WordsOfWisdom]

9 hours ago, Hockey-78 said:

Care to elaborate regarding his value?

 

Against the Rags Nylander had ZERO goals, assists, SOG, hits, blks and a lousy FO %. What does he bring to the table? You seem to be winning nicely, with or without him.

 

The Leafs have shown this season that Nylander doesn't "move the needle"  (an expression I often use) because as mentioned above, he seems to have no impact on the team's win-loss record. He's a complementary piece, not a franchise guy who the team leans on for wins. 

 

The Leafs would be better off to move Nylander for a player who addresses a more pressing need elsewhere. (I've harped on defence, but there are other roles that may/may not need upgrading like a penalty killing specialist, faceoff specialist, etc)

 

The Leafs are also falling victim to the "one puck problem".  There's one puck and 60 minutes of ice time to allocate among 12 forwards. They can't all have the puck and they can't all play 20+ minutes per game. You reach a point where adding more scoring forwards does nothing to add goals to the team, and the Leafs have surpassed that point already. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

29 minutes ago, Hockey Junkie said:

So how much money do they have now to spend on Marner and Matthews?

 

One hundred billion dollars.

 

[hobie]

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

The Leafs have shown this season that Nylander doesn't "move the needle"  (an expression I often use) because as mentioned above, he seems to have no impact on the team's win-loss record. He's a complementary piece, not a franchise guy who the team leans on for wins. 

 

The Leafs would be better off to move Nylander for a player who addresses a more pressing need elsewhere. (I've harped on defence, but there are other roles that may/may not need upgrading like a penalty killing specialist, faceoff specialist, etc)

 

The Leafs are also falling victim to the "one puck problem".  There's one puck and 60 minutes of ice time to allocate among 12 forwards. They can't all have the puck and they can't all play 20+ minutes per game. You reach a point where adding more scoring forwards does nothing to add goals to the team, and the Leafs have surpassed that point already. 

 

So you're saying that a team can have too many good players?

 

There's a fair number of players on TO that are filling roles and their utility outside of their roles is close to non existent. In order to win games, win championships someone needs to score and the role players TO has don't. TO has an abundance of players that can be effective during the regular season against bad to middlin' teams but the playoffs aren't the regular season.

 

As far as the one puck problem, that's a Babs created problem. Babs thinks that TO needs to have 3 and sometimes 4 lines that should be played equally or there abouts but come playoff time I expect he will need to be playing the better players more. TO has enough quality forwards to fill 2 lines, Kadri would be better used on the top 2 lines, Marleau as well, Kappy and the top 2 lines should be playing around 20 minutes a game.

 

The top 2 lines should be being exposed to the other responsibilities like PKing, last minutes defending, etc. as the best players can and should be used in all situations, they'd be better at these because they are better. I love seeing Marner and JT PKing and I'd like to see Matthews and Nylander doing the same. I fail to see that players who struggle to be credible 5v5 can in anyway be realistic contributors 5v4, 5v3. Using supposed defensive specialists to end a close game is so dumb, they struggle to get the puck out of TO's zone, handle the puck, understand the game period.

 

In a Cap world a team is blessed to have as many quality players as TO has and TO should do it's utmost to hold on to them. Another Brown, another Hy together don't equal Nylander, TO needs more Nylanders certainly not less.

 

A fit Nylander can make a differnce in games against TB, Boston, etc. but the Browns and the Hys of the NHL are at their best play neutral and that's against players of their own quality..

 

We've seen Boston basically own TO of late and they have loaded their best forwards on the top line, Babs uses TO's best spread out over 3 lines. Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Kadri and Kappy could be 2 dominate lines instead of spreading them around  and creating 3 weaker lines. HY is an anchor with JT and Marner and like a chain, a line is only as good as it's weakest link.  

[hobie]

"he seems to have no impact on the team's win-loss record"

 

TO kept winning without Nylander and kept winning without Matthews for 14 games.

[Hockey-78]

4 hours ago, hobie said:

TO kept winning without Nylander and kept winning without Matthews for 14 games.

LOL. Hobie, seriously... I can respect you defending both Nylander and the signing but implying Toronto will fare just as good without Nylander or Matthews is just absurd. AM has 19 goals in 23 games and WN has ZERO in 9 goals.

 

Ok, I'll bite and say we can forgive Nylander for this slow start for the obvious reasons. But let's be honest: he's not contributing in any way at the moment. Against the Wings no points, -1, 2 PIM, FO% beyond pathetic... he's already accumulated as many PIMs in 9 games than 82 games last season.

[hobie]

In spite of all your damming stats, Minny would trade for him in a snap.

 

I'm well aware of what Matthews has done when healthy but TO did continue to win while he was injured as I was pointing out to Words.

[WordsOfWisdom]

20 hours ago, hobie said:

So you're saying that a team can have too many good players?

 

Too many at one position yes.  

 

20 hours ago, hobie said:

In a Cap world a team is blessed to have as many quality players as TO has and TO should do it's utmost to hold on to them. Another Brown, another Hy together don't equal Nylander, TO needs more Nylanders certainly not less.

 

I agree but if you can have your top forwards (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, etc.) playing 20+ minutes per game, it sort of "erases" a line. You don't need to take away 5 minutes from Matthews line to give 5 more minutes to Nylander's line. The best players are going to be getting the most minutes, and the 4th line isn't going to see much ice time. 

 

As you mentioned, TO needs two really powerful scoring lines rather than four weak scoring lines that they roll out in equal minutes. 

[Hockey-78]

1 hour ago, hobie said:

In spite of all your damming stats, Minny would trade for him in a snap.

 

I'm well aware of what Matthews has done when healthy but TO did continue to win while he was injured as I was pointing out to Words.

Depends on the price. We have enough of high paid forwards not scoring and especially forwards who vanish into thin air when physicality aka playoffs come in to play. Nylander is probably one of those.

 

To Words? I beg your pardon, sorry!

[hobie]

3 hours ago, Hockey-78 said:

Depends on the price. We have enough of high paid forwards not scoring and especially forwards who vanish into thin air when physicality aka playoffs come in to play. Nylander is probably one of those.

 

To Words? I beg your pardon, sorry!

 

In a perfect world all players would be physical, have the inner engine that makes them want to go all the time and be very talented but it ain't so. That's where good coaching should play a hand in balancing out a lineup.

 

TO's most physical players recently went thru an 11/12 game goal scoring drought while also only getting 2 assists, that's Kadri. In any normal year Nylander will not be so unproductive. Nylander is a presence that's noticeable every shift, he's the type of player people would willingly pay money to watch in pretty well all facets of the game.

 

I love watching Nylander, Marner and Gardiner play and now finely Rielly. Matthews and Kadri can spend games being invisible and JT is marvelously quietly efficient. 

[Hockey-78]

Nylander has now accumulated in 19 games 1 G, 2 A and is -9 (2nd worst). Signs of improvement on the ice or do the stats lie? I actually saw the only goal he's scored, a fluke against us.

[hobie]

Matthews has 1 goal in 11 games, Kadri has 2 goals in his last 20 games, Lindholm 0 goals in 40, Marleau 1 goal in his last 13, TO's lack of offence is team wide and Babs keeps pairing Nylander with these players. And no Nylander isn't playing with Matthews and Kadri at the same time but I do think that would be an excellent idea.

[Hockey-78]

But this is the kid who recently earned himself $45 mil.! One would think he'd have more in his tank and jump in his step.

 

Thanks to CBA he will get his money, no matter how he performs. How I wish I had that clause in my contract...

 

What is interesting to see is how the front office handles it; will they keep hanging on to him which basically means adios to Kapanen who's having the season of his life or will they have another run finding a dance partner for a trade.

[hobie]

Matthews is going to get what, 11 mil. per and he's struggling, struggling is struggling, doesn't mean they're not good players.

 

Ovie got 69 points in 82 games(33 goals) in 2016/17 and he was paid 9.5 mil. that year. Now maybe you offer him a contract based on his performance but he also had 109(50 goals) points in 72 games in 2009/10 so what is his 69 points worth or his 109 points.

 

In Ovie's bad year what was the reason, maybe played with an injury that remained an injury without proper rest and rehab that might have needed 30 games down time.

 

Nylander put up 2 years of 61 points per but was only paid less than 1 mil. per, what is the average 60 point player worth?

 

I think you probably get paid even tho you have bad stretches.

 

I like Nylander and I don't mind his contract as I expect he will easily out perform the money he'll be paid. Every game Nylander is moved around which is probably part of the reason the numbers aren't there.

 

I like Kappy too but in no world will he be a better player than Nylander except in rare stretches. I hope TO can keep them both.

 

TO's possible Cap problems are a legacy from Lou Lam, Nylander should've been signed last year, Matthews, Marner, Kappy, Gardiner should have been signed this last summer. 

[Hockey-78]

1 hour ago, hobie said:

 

With all due respect, I think you're mistaken if you really think Matthews can underperform the rest of the season and it will have no effect on his contract negotiations. And if it doesn't, it only underlines his legitimate superstar status. And yet, you say he's struggling but 42 points in 33 games is pretty darn good. Nylander is nowhere near of that level, though.

 

Come on, Ovie is Ovie, Nylander is very far from that ladder too. 70th in scoring last season. Ovie had 65 goal season prior to signing his current deal and he followed that with 56 goals being the best scorer, again. Kind of like rewarding his employer...

 

I have no idea why anyone would mix entry level deals to assessing one's worth... every player goes through that phase and they all just suck it up.

 

Actually, I'm not an NHL player. I won't get paid if my employer decides I'm not performing adequately. There's the term of notice and that's it. Nylander will get his money, he'd only be another in the line of buy outs.

 

Kapanen offers qualities Nylandes doesn't possess. Every solid two way forward with incredible speed and scoring ability is dearly wanted. It's not about who is better but does he bring some added value the team needs. Kapanen has the best +/- rating of Leafs' forwards, Nylander the worst.

 

Your last paragraph is probably the only one we can agree on. Although hindsight is easy and signing all those players at the same time undoubtedly wasn't easy.

[hobie]

Quote

Even in matching 61-point seasons the last two years, Nylander wasn't unfamiliar with the odd dry spell, even ones that saw him similarly sent down to the fourth line. In the 2016-17 season, Nylander tallied two goals over 18 games mid-season, and then in the 2017-18 season endured an early-season spell with only one goal in 18 games, but he still added seven assists in that stretch.

https://www.tsn.ca/slumping-nylander-has-new-look-and-new-line-1.1244540

 

Slumps happen, all athletes in all sports endure slumps.

 

I think it's ideal that Kappy is being used where he's best suited basically on the 3rd line, he has 2nd/3rd line chops but I don't think he has the head or talent to thrive on a 1st line. 

 

The difference between Nylander and Kappy is huge, Nylander is also a very decent defensive player, he should be Pking like Marner and Kappy. 78, I think you're press reading rather than watching Leaf games, Nylander is instrumental in making Matthews dynamic 5v5,  Matthews isn't much of a passer he's more like Ovie pure scorer and scores better when he's being set up which is Nylander's function but that will never be Kappy thing on any line. Funny thing is Kappy when skating looks like Nylander but that's where any comparison should end.

 

Matthews won't get 80 points this year, he's also in a slump, but he's going to get a mega contract based more on his potential than on what he's done. He's been injured multiple times in the last 2 years so you can look at his points per game and say wow, what would he do if he played an entire year or you could look at what's really happening and wonder can this guy stay healthy long enough to realize his potential.

 

I don't think it's going to matter how Matthews plays for the rest of the year, he's going to get paid, either by TO or someone else via offer sheet, maybe from the Wild, eh.   

[OccamsRazor]

So they were 20-8-0 before without Willy.

 

And 9-8-2 since???

 

Wow i would trade him now....