It's Time for the Retrofit

[mojo1917]

@Digityman

 

We have discussed Giroux's worthiness of being the captain pretty thoroughly through the years.

 

I keep coming back to something @radoran typed and that was Giroux was never a captain until  the NHL, to me that's a damn hard place for that particular type of on the job training. 

 

There are all kinds of leaders and types of people who can lead others, in business; there are the formal leaders with the title and the informal leaders who have the experience/charisma etcetera that people will follow. If the formal guy is smart they enlist these informal guys to help out. 

Think about 87 out there in Pgh, he had to be shown how to lead, Shero brought veteran guys in to help Sid, Bill Guerin and Matt Cullen ( Maybe Cullen was a Rutherford guy ?)  come to mind... now Sid's got the skills and the experience and he's not too shabby of a leader, but even he had to have some help.

 

I maintain G could have been a super captain had he had some decent mentoring, Chris Pronger was a not very good mentor.

There were only his peers in the room and Timmonen when G was made the captain. I don't think the informal leaders on the Flyers have been great, and that group definitely took a step back when Hartnell was traded.  

 

Giroux will do whatever to help the team he'll kill penalties, he's strapped the team on his back for long stretches of the season, he'll switch positions, win face offs...but he might not be so good at calling out his buddies for their performance. Having a guy show him how to do that  when he was a young captain would have helped immensely. I think he's done an alright job having had to figure it out on his own. I do think leadership is an area where he does lack natural ability. I also don't think his deficiencies in that area are due to lack of effort on his part. I do think it is a weakness or at best "not a strength".

 

 

 

 

[Digityman]

@mojo1917 

I agree and believe that he has (had?) the skills to be a very effective leader.  It's sad really to see his time wasted as his numbers prove he was a top 10 guy in the NHL.  Now he's climbing in years and I fear each year moving forward, he'll become less and less able to do those things you describe above.    

 

I guess the question is now the time to move the team in a different direction?   And if it is, there are two options.  Giroux steps down as the C or Giroux is traded and a new leader hand picked.   

 

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I trust Flyers management to make that selection properly. 

[vis]

6 hours ago, Digityman said:

 

I'd like to say that other GM's would value Voracek higher than we do but I can't say for sure.   While it's been noted in the thread above how we might over-value some of the players, we definitely under-value as well.  Only 10 months ago, Jake was 7th in the league for % of a team's offense.   Above MacKinnon, Kucherov, Ovechkin and tied with Malkin.    Then looking at points, since 2015 he's played 276 games and has 235 points.  

 

So while I don't think Jake brings back super high value, I also don't think the Flyers will have to take trash for him.     JVR is in the same boat.  On the right team, with the right line-mates they can be successful.   (JVR in Toronto for example)   

 

The ultimate goal of moving these guys is to shake up the core and if they can fetch something decent in return it's a bonus.    

Fair points about V's performance.  He has produced, there is no denying that.  However, that contract is a tough one to move.  Same with JVR.  For that reason, I think you have to temper expectations about what a return would look like.  Frankly, it's hard for me to gauge what kind of return we would get.

 

Agree about shaking up the core, but you need to get something reasonable back in return.  I feel like the "shake-up" trade is a thing of the past, particularly when talking about top 6 players.  You cannot make shortsighted moves that might produce a short term jolt but the effects of which may wear off in time.

[csummers]

 Trading giroux would be a mistake. They can get good again fast, teams do it all the time. It wont take five years.

 Giroux is still only 30 for a few days. When his contract is up he will be 34. Its exactly what you want. He finished second in league scoring last year on essentially the same crap team we are watching now. You are lucky to get a second line player for 7 million these days, 8 million cap hit for a guy like giroux for a few more years is why you sign those contracts, those years are the bargain years. 

 Giroux will still be contributing big to whatever team he is on, costing them 8 million while guys like mcdavid will be in the neighborhood of 15 million.

 The last few years of a contract like girouxs are the gravy years. The point where his skills decline but you expected it so you have a new number one pp guy, first line guy etc. You trade him at that point and you end up with a worse player and a worse salary cap hit more than likely. 

 Dont believe me, try to replace what giroux has done over the last few years(is there even anyone?) with a free agent that is equal and see if you get it done for 8 mil. So big deal if he slows down a bit in the next few years, you guys have predicted it for five years now and he just keeps on scoring, but it doesnt matter, a guy like him will always make you better.

 

[flyer4ever]

I am not bashing Giroux, he's a great player. Timing is everything, his in Philly has not been great and that is not on him. When he came to Philly the team was deep in leadership. Richards, Briere, Hartnell, Pronger, Timonen were all here for the 2010 cup run. He has had access to THE captain, Bobby Clarke. Unfortunately, your worth as a leader cannot be measured without a band of brothers following you into battle. That is also not on G28. Having said that, there is no need for anyone to pity him. He has made millions of dollars playing  a game he loves. 

IMO, he is the single greatest asset Fletcher has moving forward. The reality is he will be on the decline when this team is a legitimate cup contender, if that ever happens. If G28 wants to win a cup IMPO it will have better odds happening somewhere else. With all that said it would be best to trade him now while his value is optimal, rather than wait for his value to diminish.

 

[brelic]

29 minutes ago, flyer4ever said:

I am not bashing Giroux, he's a great player. Timing is everything, his in Philly has not been great and that is not on him. When he came to Philly the team was deep in leadership. Richards, Briere, Hartnell, Pronger, Timonen were all here for the 2010 cup run. He has had access to THE captain, Bobby Clarke. Unfortunately, your worth as a leader cannot be measured without a band of brothers following you into battle. That is also not on G28. Having said that, there is no need for anyone to pity him. He has made millions of dollars playing  a game he loves. 

IMO, he is the single greatest asset Fletcher has moving forward. The reality is he will be on the decline when this team is a legitimate cup contender, if that ever happens. If G28 wants to win a cup IMPO it will have better odds happening somewhere else. With all that said it would be best to trade him now while his value is optimal, rather than wait for his value to diminish.

 

 

But what kind of return do you think will be fair? 

 

I agree with @csummers that I can't imagine a scenario in which the Flyers receive a better player than Giroux. Teams don't trade those players away.

 

So the only case that makes sense, IMO, is for a 1st overall pick. Even that is no guarantee as we see with Patrick. And we would need Patrick to develop into a true #1 center/player in order to offset the loss of Giroux moving forward. There's no one else in the organization that has close to that kind of projection, and no Cup winner is without one.

 

Assuming the Sens win the draft lottery, maybe, just maybe Colorado would be willing to trade it for Giroux. They are a mature team that would get a much bigger boost from a vet like Giroux rather than another prospect, at least I think so.

 

As for Hughes, the projections I've seen are Patrick Kane-ish. Over the past 9 seasons, Kane has exactly 1 point more than Giroux. 

 

 

[mojo1917]

@flyer4ever

Speaking only for myself I don't pity Giroux, simply pointing out when it comes to leading guys, he's had zero experience prior to having the role thrust upon him at the game's highest level. 

 

The thing tripping me up is this is the same group of players minus Filppula but plus JvR that finished with 96 points last year, down the stretch they were very good. What the hell happened ? 

 

We haven't agreed about taking the team down to the studs and starting over, but really in light of how this group is playing that might be what's needed. 

One thing though, who wants to come play here now, and will those guys still want to play here if they're the only top end talent on the roster ?  What kind of damage did the "firing Hextall bumblefukery" do to the team's reputation around the league ?

 

Maybe Fletcher has a Timonen/Hartnell deal in him,( I don't really think he does), but really, two of the right pieces a 3C for a time and top 3 defender...and i think this team could be right back to being on the rise. 

 

 

 

 

[Podein25]

15 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I don't pity Giroux

 

Ah, but I bet you pity the fool, amirite?

[pilldoc]

33 minutes ago, csummers said:

Dont believe me, try to replace what giroux has done over the last few years(is there even anyone?) with a free agent that is equal and see if you get it done for 8 mil. So big deal if he slows down a bit in the next few years, you guys have predicted it for five years now and he just keeps on scoring, but it doesnt matter, a guy like him will always make you better.

 

Please show me were he just keeps on scoring.  I'll give you last season with over a 100 pts, however he has 17%SH  In the 3 seasons prior to that he had 73, 67, and 58 pt respectively.

 

 

 

Let's take this one step further, in the last three times the Flyers have been in the playoffs, he has 6, 1, and 3 pts respectability in 19 playoff games.

 

 

Outside of the "THE" shift vs. the Pens many years ago, he has not carried this team.  Look, I like "G" but lets not act like he is some type of god on this team who is untouchable.  I'll give you the fact that he had a career year last year, however, he had to shoot 7% over his CSH% to do it.    He certainly has NOT produced in the playoffs and quite frankly that is where you want your superstars to shine.  I don't give a damn what he does during the regular season if he can't produce in the playoffs.

 

He currently projects at 93 points for the year, however,  there are 21 other players who project to have MORE points then Giroux this year in a year where scoring is up.

 

 

For a player who is supposed to make other players around him good, then why is Jake's point totals way down, and Coots point totals way down this year???  Even TK is not producing like he was at the end of last year.

 

So yes ...except for his magical year last year, his STATS say something completely different. 

 

 

[mojo1917]

Just now, Podein25 said:

 

Ah, but I bet you pity the fool, amirite?

unghhh- and i do it for the kids ....

[mojo1917]

@pilldoc

 

RE: Jake's points being down- G is not really responsible for that since they don't play together except on the snake-bit power play

Same with Couturier, not on the same line anymore, kind of hard to help out from the bench. You want to talk about JvR not putting up good numbers or Koneckny hitting the crossbar that's a discussion to have. 

 

Also,  the playoffs prior to last year, he was playing injured, so injured it took him a whole season to get right, remember the year he sucked ? sure you do. 

 

The low scoring years appear to be outliers rather than trends though, yes ?

 

I mean if you can make a trade for a better player do it, but you will get a higher cap hit for sure and the pool of players is limited to like 6 to 10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pilldoc]

Here are the line combinations for the entire season so far.  Using the entire year as a body of work he most certainly has had his share of ice time with line mates of Coots and TK.  Maybe most recently the lines have switched up but for the year so far almost 75% of 5 on 5 ice time he has had TK and Coots.  I'll give you Jake and JVR simply because of JVR's injury.

As far as PP time where the this unit has been absolutely wretched 64% of the time he was on a line with both Jake and Coots which you acknowledge.

 

So maybe recently the lines have been switched up, but throughout the current season he has played significant time with Jake / Coots / TK. 

 

 

 

 

I don't  know how you classify the low scoring years as outliers as those 3 seasons all happened consecutively.    What is more troubling is the fact that his SOG have decreased  in consecutive years...279, 233, 199, and 193.  He does project to about 254 SOG this year which would be the most since the 2014 season.

 

All I'm saying is that there is some evidence here that could suggest his skills are starting to decline with last year being the outlier.

 

I am not saying trade Giroux today or tomorrow, however, if the right deal came along, I am looking at it very intently as I know longer consider Giroux an untouchable.  (I say that with sadness as I truly do like him, BUT this team needs to move forward with or without G)

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

6 hours ago, brelic said:

Sure he has flaws to his game that can drive me insane as a fan, but he produces.

 

 

And this is why i want to move him. Because he still has value and can bring a decent return back.

 

I don't want to hold onto him to long like they did Simmer and watch hs value tank because of his play.

 

It is like stock you sell when the return is high before you are left with a loss.

 

Not saying all of Jake's issues are like Wayne's i am just at the point of where i am ready to move like me and other have discussed i can't remember all who but i know @ruxpin is one of them who has had his fill and is ready to cut bait claim a return for him and move on.

 

No hard feeling no hate for Jake really i am just ready to move on and start giving some of the RW prospect the Flyers have a chance like NAK who is one of the best forwards the Phantoms have 5 on 5 and especially without the puck....he is physical an will hunt the puck and retrieve it.

 

That is what the Flyers don't currently have guys who can get and hold onto the puck...Jake and Simmer have to many turnovers.

[OccamsRazor]

Well the Flyers play a game vs. Montreal on the 19th and then don't play again till back to back games vs Jets/Rangers starting on the 28th so like 9 days off so that to me might be the time by then Fletcher makes his moves so his new acquisitions have a chance to practice with the team before playing just a hunch.

 

You know management knows already no chance of making the playoffs now so they have told Fletcher to concentrate on trying to make the team better for next year while they still have their eyes on the possible prize of Hughes as a sweeeeet consolation prize to not making the playoffs.

 

I mean to have Highes and Patrick both as the future centers heading into 2019/20 would be outstanding!!!!!!

 

 

Lose for Hughes!!!!!!!! 

[mojo1917]

@pilldoc

also, let's not forget 12/13 was a lockout year.

so there was one year, the year he was hurt that he wasn't at least a 60 pt player. 

The trend was decreasing points, but not decreasing at a 20pt per season pace. 

He's nearly a ppg player for his career, he's ****** good. 

good luck replacing his production. 

The trade haul would have to be the first pick and several roster players/ coveted prospects- at least.

 

 

[FD19372]

27 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

@pilldoc

also, let's not forget 12/13 was a lockout year.

so there was one year, the year he was hurt that he wasn't at least a 60 pt player. 

The trend was decreasing points, but not decreasing at a 20pt per season pace. 

He's nearly a ppg player for his career, he's ****** good. 

good luck replacing his production. 

The trade haul would have to be the first pick and several roster players/ coveted prospects- at least.

 

 

Right. Good luck replacing his production. G makes Jake a better player, not the other way around. G also plays the entire rink whereas Jake only plays center ice into the offensive zone. Therefore, Jake is WAY more replaceable in any trade than Giroux.

[pilldoc]

24 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

@pilldoc

also, let's not forget 12/13 was a lockout year.

 

Yup.... was not including that year.....

 

please make no mistake I like G.... however I’m just at the point where major changes may be necessary and like I said before, I no longer consider G untouchable. You make many valid points... I’m just trying to put down my orange and black glasses....

 

[mojo1917]

So the team is bad right now. 

How far does one go to change the dynamics ?

Is it trade all the things ?

Is it trade a couple say Voracek & Simmonds for top tier picks and prospects ?

 

 

I recall a situation with the San Antonio Spurs where they had in his prime David Robinson, young Manu Ginobli big shot Rob and some other good players; they had a horrific season and wound up being able to draft Tim Duncan, which ushered in a stretch of 10 + years of serious contention and several titles when things broke their way.

Could the Flyers luck into a similar situation where , a couple of guys get traded, the team drafts Jack Hughes, the young group of Hughes/Kakko, Farrabee, O'Brien, Patrick, Koneckny, Provorov Meyers and Sanhiem usher in a long window of serious contention when if things break their way they win some titles ?

One of the things the Spurs had was Popovich, the best coach in the league, I don't know if Scott Gordon is Pop 2.0 but Joel Quennville has pretty decent resume' would he be interested in coming to a gutted team with top end prospects ?

 

I can't imagine a scenario where this group makes the playoffs, I would like to see the rest of the season get devoted to, finding out if NAK, Meyers, Vorobyev can play in the NHL, proper development of Carter Hart, whatever that looks like, splitting time here or playing every night in Allentown. I don't need to see Dale Weiss or Jordan Weal anymore, nor Andrew MacDonald.  Time to see what these young guys can do.

 

 

 

[Digityman]

14 hours ago, FD19372 said:

Right. Good luck replacing his production. G makes Jake a better player, not the other way around. G also plays the entire rink whereas Jake only plays center ice into the offensive zone. Therefore, Jake is WAY more replaceable in any trade than Giroux.

 

This is very true.   But does replacing Jake really shake up the core enough to really push this team in a new direction?    Is having Giroux's production this year, 2019/20 or even 20/21 really going to push this team to the next level - meaning winning at least 1 round in the playoffs without significant changes elsewhere?  

 

There is no doubt that Giroux makes everyone on the ice better and that he is a top 10 player over his career.   I'm just not sure that his value (both to the team and to other teams) will ever be higher than it is now.    And if that's the case, the decision needs to be made:   

 

Can what would come back in a trade for Giroux be worth more than what Giroux can produce in say 2 years because that's about the time-frame in my mind.

[FD19372]

9 minutes ago, Digityman said:

 

This is very true.   But does replacing Jake really shake up the core enough to really push this team in a new direction?    Is having Giroux's production this year, 2019/20 or even 20/21 really going to push this team to the next level - meaning winning at least 1 round in the playoffs without significant changes elsewhere?  

 

There is no doubt that Giroux makes everyone on the ice better and that he is a top 10 player over his career.   I'm just not sure that his value (both to the team and to other teams) will ever be higher than it is now.    And if that's the case, the decision needs to be made:   

 

Can what would come back in a trade for Giroux be worth more than what Giroux can produce in say 2 years because that's about the time-frame in my mind.

i think there are a slew of right wingers who could get at least 60-70 points with G, who aren't top line guys on an NHL team right now. Oh. also...they would backcheck for their paycheck. I would trade Voracek because you can continue a serious rebuild without nuking the franchise. I think trading G means you had better have a star with close to his skill set in the organization. They don't, and Patrick is looking like he might be a bust, if just by "he can't stay healthy" alone. I would keep G for another season, and find him a better wingman.

[Lindbergh31]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 5:45 PM, vis said:

I think so.

 

I think Ghost is overvalued by some.  He's an atrocity in his own zone.  Had a great year last year, but a questionable one the year before.  This is another questionable year so far.  

 

I also think there is some overvaluing of the prospects.  Lindblom does not look like he belongs in the NHL.  I feel like we strain to see flashes in his game, but, realistically, he's not been the player anyone had hoped - and it's not just a question of usage.

 

I love Travis Konecny, but I am not sure he's going to be an exceptional player.  He was able to dominate in juniors because he could skate, hold on to the puck forever, and find a play.  But he doesn't have the skating ability, hands or time to do that in the NHL.  He needs to figure out how to raise his game.

 

Provorov's issues are in his head.  He needs to get out of the daze he's been in.  I just think he needs a reliable coach and veteran presence.  

 

I think Sanheim is starting to round into form.  If he can capture what he did in juniors, he makes Ghost expendable.

 

I don't have any issues with Hagg.  He's more than serviceable, even though he has occasional brainfarts.

 

I don't know what to make about Frost.  Reading some other boards and some don't have very flattering things to say about him in juniors, despite the statistics.  Makes me wonder a little bit.

 

I don't know enough about Farabee or O'Brien.

 

The rest of the crop I am not counting on to be significant contributors, except maybe Wade Allison.  Really would like for that kid to make the NHL as an impact player.

Provorov reminds me of Mark Howe when he first got to the Flyers, I know he was older than what Provorov is but when he got paired with Brad McCrimmon then he really took off as a defenseman. Fletcher has to trade or sign a veteran defenseman who can play with Provorov. Right now Provorov is trying to put the team on his shoulders and it's affecting his play. I agree that Sanheim is coming into his own so if there is a trade for Ghost that benefits the Flyers then it's something Fletcher should consider. If the Flyers end up last overall in the league I'm hoping that we don't have a repeat of the 2007 draft when we lost out on Patrick Kane.

[brelic]

17 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

So the team is bad right now. 

How far does one go to change the dynamics ?

Is it trade all the things ?

Is it trade a couple say Voracek & Simmonds for top tier picks and prospects ?

 

 

I recall a situation with the San Antonio Spurs where they had in his prime David Robinson, young Manu Ginobli big shot Rob and some other good players; they had a horrific season and wound up being able to draft Tim Duncan, which ushered in a stretch of 10 + years of serious contention and several titles when things broke their way.

Could the Flyers luck into a similar situation where , a couple of guys get traded, the team drafts Jack Hughes, the young group of Hughes/Kakko, Farrabee, O'Brien, Patrick, Koneckny, Provorov Meyers and Sanhiem usher in a long window of serious contention when if things break their way they win some titles ?

One of the things the Spurs had was Popovich, the best coach in the league, I don't know if Scott Gordon is Pop 2.0 but Joel Quennville has pretty decent resume' would he be interested in coming to a gutted team with top end prospects ?

 

I can't imagine a scenario where this group makes the playoffs, I would like to see the rest of the season get devoted to, finding out if NAK, Meyers, Vorobyev can play in the NHL, proper development of Carter Hart, whatever that looks like, splitting time here or playing every night in Allentown. I don't need to see Dale Weiss or Jordan Weal anymore, nor Andrew MacDonald.  Time to see what these young guys can do.

 

 

 

 

I know the Flyers' problems run deep, but in all honesty, I think everyone including Hextall knew what the faults were, and nothing was done to address them in the offseason.

 

Goaltending.

3rd line center.

Penalty killing.

 

None of our goalies could remain healthy, let alone stop a beach ball.

Vorobyev was not ready (or the experiment was cut short by Hak).

Lappy was still here, no personnel changed, and the results were predictably the same.

 

I think if *those* issues had been addressed, and the season doesn't start out in such a tailspin, we might be having a different conversation. Maybe Hex and Hak are still here and the team is in the thick of a playoff hunt.

 

All that to say that I don't think wholesale changes are needed.

 

Simmonds is a must-trade, and I would say a deadline deal. 

 

Voracek is a great trading chip if you can find the right partner and the right deal, and I would say draft/offseason is the best time to do it.

 

Giroux is an untouchable - really the only one at this point - for me because without him, there really is no reason to watch this team for a few years. Which means they would be terrible. Which means it is not something I believe Scott and Fletcher would accept.

 

Along the rest of the season, if you can shed one or two of Lehtera, Weal, MacDud, Weise, and give guys like Myers, Vorobyev, NAK a chance to earn their lumps in a lost season, I think that puts the team ahead for next season.

 

 

[Digityman]

18 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I can't imagine a scenario where this group makes the playoffs, I would like to see the rest of the season get devoted to, finding out if NAK, Meyers, Vorobyev can play in the NHL, proper development of Carter Hart, whatever that looks like, splitting time here or playing every night in Allentown. I don't need to see Dale Weiss or Jordan Weal anymore, nor Andrew MacDonald.  Time to see what these young guys can do.

 

I agree wholeheartedly with this.  There is no reason for Weiss, Weal, AMAC to be on the ice.   They would have to go 27-10-5 to have a 50% chance of making it into the playoffs.   I know (and don't want them to) they won't purposefully tank (cough cough Pens) so why not bring up some players to really evaluate talent.    

[brelic]

2 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

If the Flyers end up last overall in the league I'm hoping that we don't have a repeat of the 2007 draft when we lost out on Patrick Kane.

 

Shhhhh! They can hear you!

 

We got a poor consolation prize with both of our 2nd overalls in the last decade... 3rd time's a charm??

 

Bottom line is we need finishers. Enough with the play-making guys who will just play keep-away for 5 minutes without getting a shot away.

 

 

[Lindbergh31]

9 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

Shhhhh! They can hear you!

 

We got a poor consolation prize with both of our 2nd overalls in the last decade... 3rd time's a charm??

 

Bottom line is we need finishers. Enough with the play-making guys who will just play keep-away for 5 minutes without getting a shot away.

 

 

Lol, people tell me I have a bad habit of saying the obvious. I agree we need finishers on this team like a Tim Kerr, Brian Propp or John LeClair. Fletcher has to use this time up to the trade deadline to determine who are the Flyers core players going forward and trade off the rest that aren't. Reload in the summer and see what happens but get a goalie who can be the stop gap until Carter Hart is ready to take the reigns (Hextall's choice of Brian Elliot was a head scratcher!)