2019 NHL Entry Draft - Flyers Edition

[vis]

Flyers need to draft a talented, dynamic, scoring player.  Don't care who it is.  I just want someone who can score.

[albertaflyer]

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-hughes-stays-ahead-of-kakko-after-world-juniors-1.1237475

[RonJeremy]

Through 41 games, the Flyers have averaged 2.78 goals per game (ranked 24th). From an analytics standpoint, as tracked by NaturalStatTrick.com, the team ranks 8th in total scoring chances but in the bottom one-third of the league in converting those chances into goals.  We need a sniper, Leach, Kerr, Leclair, etc. Someone with a great shot and the abilty to find the open areas on the ice. We have some good players and have drafted pretty well, but we need to draft on where a player will fit in. We dont seem to have a plan, our players dont seem to have any chemistry. When was the last time we kept a line intact because they were unstoppable and had major chemistry. When we traded for Leclair, the idea was to put him with Lindros and Renberg. It was a perfect fit. We need to BUILD a team, not just draft guys. For instance, we need a big power winger with finishing ability to go on my new Frost, Farabee line.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

13 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

For instance, we need a big power winger with finishing ability to go on my new Frost, Farabee line.

 

Here's how I see the future lines ending up:

 

Ratcliffe - Couturier - Konecny

Farabee - Frost - Allison

Lindblom - Patrick - O'Brien

Bunnaman - Vorobyov - NAK

 

So, the big power forward for the Farabee - Frost line would be Allison (who would be a great fit on that line). All this doesn't include the Flyers first round pick for 2019. Now, I'd also hope the Flyers would consider dealing the pick if it isn't 1 or 2 and they can get a defenseman like Seth Jones to pair with Provorov. Think of what the Flyers defense core would look like with that trade:

 

Provorov - Jones

Sanheim - Gostisbehere

Morin - Meyers 

 

That doesn't even include Hogberg or Friedman and that doesn't include what the Flyers could possibly get in a Gudas trade. 

 

That would be a RIDICULOUS group of F and D going forward. 

[OccamsRazor]

12 minutes ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Ratcliffe - Couturier - Konecny

Farabee - Frost - Allison

Rubtsov - Patrick - O'Brien

Bunnaman - Vorobyov - NAK

 

I just think Rubtsov will be on the LW and has a higher skill set than Oskar.

 

He was on fya before getting hurt putting up 10 points in 14 games and just has a better shot than Lindblom whom i wouldn't be shocked if he is eventually being traded.

 

I think Maxim Sushko could steal a spot in the bottom 6.

 

Regardless they will have a lot of kids fighting for only a few slots which is a win win for the Flyers.

 

Others could be moved for picks with no room for them once the slots get filled. 

 

The future is bright once they get this current mess sorted out.

 

Then some sick depth in goal to boot.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

33 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I just think Rubtsov will be on the LW and has a higher skill set than Oskar.

 

He was on fya before getting hurt putting up 10 points in 14 games and just has a better shot than Lindblom whom i wouldn't be shocked if he is eventually being traded.

 

I think Maxim Sushko could steal a spot in the bottom 6.

 

Regardless they will have a lot of kids fighting for only a few slots which is a win win for the Flyers.

 

Others could be moved for picks with no room for them once the slots get filled. 

 

The future is bright once they get this current mess sorted out.

 

Then some sick depth in goal to boot.

 

I totally forgot about Rubtsov. If he comes back even stronger from the shoulder surgery and if he can shake the injuries he's dealt with, he could be a real wild card. I remember when he was drafted and the scouts were saying that he has Datsyuk-like abilities. I hope that next season, they leave him stashed in the AHL for the year and let him get his game back. There's big time upside to him.

[RonJeremy]

With our current team I see a bunch of mismatched pieces. I dont see one line that plays well together and has that element of knowing where your linemate is gonna be. I see no fluid passing or playmaking. Is it coaching or is it just that we dont have the right players.

 

[RonJeremy]

We need a dynamic, exciting player. The past 4 or 5 years is the most boring Flyers hockey I have ever seen. They had to stoop to getting a mascot since the team is colossal bore. 

 

[RonJeremy]

Other than Ghost, does anyone on this team actually have a good shot  ?

[elmatus]

14 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Ratcliffe - Couturier - Konecny

Farabee - Frost - Allison

Lindblom - Patrick - O'Brien

Bunnaman - Vorobyov - NAK

 

That's a ton of unknowns. I can all but guarantee none of those names will have the level of skill Giroux has. I assume he's what you're trading to get Jones. All in all, that line up looks like a tremendous amount of wishful thinking imo.

 

We really need to have more perspective on these prospects overall. We overvalue all the time. I'm not pointing fingers at you btw, and I'm more than willing to be very wrong, but the stats just don't line up with all that. That's four players who are currently prospects in significantly weaker leagues evolving into top six players in the NHL. While not impossible, it's very unlikely.

 

Realistically, we'll be doing well if two of those four end up as true top six potential players. It's more likely that many of those names will be fighting for bottom six spots, with some number of them topping out at the AHL level. While that's not fun to think about, it is much more realistic.

[radoran]

19 hours ago, elmatus said:

All that said, I certainly don't fault Hexy for making the choice.

 

Far too early to call a "bust". And I don't blame Hextall for making the pick. I blame the organization for slotting him in at 2nd line center pretty much from the moment the lottery ball dropped.

 

Speaks to the "overvalue the players" mindset from where I sit.

[Poulin20]

14 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

We need a dynamic, exciting player. The past 4 or 5 years is the most boring Flyers hockey I have ever seen. They had to stoop to getting a mascot since the team is colossal bore. 

 

 

This period definitely gives the early 1990s a run for its money.

[FD19372]

3 minutes ago, Poulin20 said:

 

This period definitely gives the early 1990s a run for its money.

Yes, it does, but we lucked out and were able to trade for Lindros. The difference is that with that team, we knew they were going to get better once we got #88 and the team was capable of recognizing that their core was rotten. Now, I don't know if it is a matter of ego...that we picked the players and we don't want to rebuild OR that they truly cannot recognize where the problem lies. Neither is good, obviously.

[Poulin20]

2 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

Yes, it does, but we lucked out and were able to trade for Lindros. The difference is that with that team, we knew they were going to get better once we got #88 and the team was capable of recognizing that their core was rotten. Now, I don't know if it is a matter of ego...that we picked the players and we don't want to rebuild OR that they truly cannot recognize where the problem lies. Neither is good, obviously.

 

Not that I agree with what is going on currently but the major difference between now and then is the cap.  Previously it was much easier to rebuild and retool with a shotgun approach as the sky was the limit if you had money which the Flyers always did.  I think some of the current inaction is due to the fact that they have to be much more careful in making trades as we know a couple bad contracts for short term gains could set us back even more.  

[murraycraven]

3 hours ago, radoran said:

 

Far too early to call a "bust". And I don't blame Hextall for making the pick. I blame the organization for slotting him in at 2nd line center pretty much from the moment the lottery ball dropped.

 

Speaks to the "overvalue the players" mindset from where I sit.

 

 

This club has overvalued players for a very long time and I wonder how long this will continue into the future.   

[pilldoc]

22 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

This club has overvalued players for a very long time and I wonder how long this will continue into the future.

 

until you get fresh eyes from outside this organization looking at said players .......  (aka Homer needs to go....)

[murraycraven]

25 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

until you get fresh eyes from outside this organization looking at said players .......  (aka Homer needs to go....)

 

you got it doc...   

 

I will say there is not a single player on this team right now that is untouchable to me.  Everyone is fair game if the return would be fair.   I love G and want him to be a Flyer for life but if the deal were right I would move him.

 

Something about this team stinks... no clue if there are locker room issues or what but something needs to be changed - and most important to change IMO is the culture.

[brelic]

On 1/7/2019 at 12:12 PM, mojo1917 said:

I would like for people to hold their horses claiming Patrick is a bust. 

 

Has he played 100 games yet ? 

Has he turned 21 ?

Has he had a fully healthy campaign ?

 

Let's pump the brakes a little. I know it's the internet and everything now is the worst or best ever in all of recorded history. 

Let the kid put on his man weight before we all run him out of town 

 

@elmatus posted a great summary / analysis of comparable picks. 

 

The one thing I would add in response to your questions is that, yes, he's only 20, but he was about as old as you can get in a qualifying year. 

 

If he had been born 4 days earlier, he'd have been in the 2016 draft with Matthews and Laine.

 

From the 2016 draft year, of the 1st round picks who have played at least 40 games, here's their PPG breakdown.

 

Draft pos., Name, PPG

 

1. Matthews, 0.99

2. Laine, 0.85

6. M. Tkachuk, 0.78

7. Keller, 0.76

3. Dubois, 0.69

14. McAvoy, 0.54

9. Sergachev, 0.44

2. Patrick, 0.38

20. Cholowski, 0.36

27. Howden, 0.35

10. Jost, 0.34

16. Chychrun, 0.30

4. Puljujarvi, 0.27

26. Thompson, 0.22

 

From the 2017 draft year (40+ games)

5. Pettersson, 1.11 (38 GP)

1. Hischier, 0.68

3. Heiskanen, 0.44

2. Patrick, 0.38

8. Mittelstadt, 0.33

9. Rasmussen, 0.32

21. Chytil, 0.33

 

So it's definitely 'disappointing' because of the expectations that come with being a #2 overall who had been a consensus #1 until the very end. 

 

Of course, all players have different development paths, and that development is not linear. Some that are doing really well right now may slump and some that are slow out of the gates may take off.

 

That being said, when looking at Patrick's game, I don't think anyone would use the word 'dynamic' to describe him. I'd say he's more of a meat and potatoes player, not dissimilar to Couturier.

 

What we need to find is a dynamic player in the upcoming draft, and one that has a scoring bias.

[pilldoc]

6 minutes ago, brelic said:

The one thing I would add in response to your questions is that, yes, he's only 20, but he was about as old as you can get in a qualifying year. 

 

If he had been born 4 days earlier, he'd have been in the 2016 draft with Matthews and Laine.

 

From the 2016 draft year, of the 1st round picks who have played at least 40 games, here's their PPG breakdown.

 

Draft pos., Name, PPG

 

1. Matthews, 0.99

2. Laine, 0.85

6. M. Tkachuk, 0.78

7. Keller, 0.76

3. Dubois, 0.69

14. McAvoy, 0.54

9. Sergachev, 0.44

2. Patrick, 0.38

20. Cholowski, 0.36

27. Howden, 0.35

10. Jost, 0.34

16. Chychrun, 0.30

4. Puljujarvi, 0.27

26. Thompson, 0.22

 

From the 2017 draft year (40+ games)

5. Pettersson, 1.11 (38 GP)

1. Hischier, 0.68

3. Heiskanen, 0.44

2. Patrick, 0.38

8. Mittelstadt, 0.33

9. Rasmussen, 0.32

21. Chytil, 0.33

 

Time to play the what if game ..... let's pretend that Patrick WAS born 4 days earlier and gets lumped into the 2016 Draft class .... where does he get drafted?  Certainly not #1 or #2.

 

Taking Patrick out of the 2017 Draft equation....who do the Flyers select in 2017 at #2?  Pettersson?   Pettersson would look great in O&B and the Flyers would have that Dynamic player......  just some interesting thoughts.

 

So let's let blame Patrick's mom for not giving birth 4 days early!  

[murraycraven]

11 minutes ago, brelic said:

So it's definitely 'disappointing' because of the expectations that come with being a #2 overall who had been a consensus #1 until the very end. 

 

So if we follow the Flyers JvR model we will trade him for a stiff d-man in a year... 

[brelic]

1 minute ago, pilldoc said:

 

Time to play the what if game ..... let's pretend that Patrick WAS born 4 days earlier and gets lumped into the 2016 Draft class .... where does he get drafted?  Certainly not #1 or #2.

 

IIRC, they talked about this on TSN around draft time, and they were thinking he'd have gone #3, which makes sense.

 

1 minute ago, pilldoc said:

 

Taking Patrick out of the 2017 Draft equation....who do the Flyers select in 2017 at #2?  Pettersson?   Pettersson would look great in O&B and the Flyers would have that Dynamic player......  just some interesting thoughts.

 

Tough call. The Flyers weren't on the lookout for defensemen, and the next two after Patrick were d-men. BUT, Heiskanen in particular was so highly touted and certainly considered BPA at the time... would a GM pass that up?

 

Hard to say. 

 

My guess is Hextall would have drafted Heiskanen.

 

1 minute ago, pilldoc said:

 

So let's let blame Patrick's mom for not giving birth 4 days early!  

 

LOL!

[pilldoc]

9 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

Taking Patrick out of the 2017 Draft equation....who do the Flyers select in 2017 at #2?  Pettersson?   Pettersson would look great in O&B and the Flyers would have that Dynamic player......  just some interesting thoughts.

 

@murraycraven

 

Editing my own post ... Pettersson was ranked #20 by ISS in June of 2017 ..... so if no Patrick then who....  Vilardi (#3) , Tippett (#5),  Glass (#6),  Mittelstadt (#7) .......  I know revisionist history, but still interesting none the less .......

 

EDIT ..just saw @brelic post above ..... Heiskanen would be a good choice .....

[vis]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

 

until you get fresh eyes from outside this organization looking at said players .......  (aka Homer needs to go....)

Speaking of fresh eyes, has Fletcher offered any commentary on the current state of the team?  Or has anyone else in the upper echelons of management made any sort of statement?

 

I'm not sure what I expect them to say, but usually I feel like someone says something to the media, even if the statement lacks much substance.  Just seems awfully quiet.  I suppose they are resigned to their fate as a lottery team and there's just not much to say right now.

[brelic]

4 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

@murraycraven

 

Editing my own post ... Pettersson was ranked #20 by ISS in June of 2017 ..... so if no Patrick then who....  Vilardi (#3) , Tippett (#5),  Glass (#6),  Mittelstadt (#7) .......  I know revisionist history, but still interesting none the less .......

 

EDIT ..just saw @brelic post above ..... Heiskanen would be a good choice .....

 

Hmm, forgot about the actual draft rankings. If Vilardi was #3, then maybe Hextall drafts him?

 

Was Heiskanen #4?

[vis]

11 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

 

So if we follow the Flyers JvR model we will trade him for a stiff d-man in a year... 

Would you trade JVR (i.e., his contract) for Luke Schenn (i.e., his contract) right now?

 

Not gonna lie...I'd be pretty tempted.