All overpaid starting lineup (first and second team)

[radoran]

6 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

Thanks radoran, I appreciate it. A much better post than the previous one! We agree on many points.

 

Apologies if I came off short on the first post - it was related to being on a phone as opposed to a real keyboard.

 

Also, been posting with a lot of folks around here for over a decade and sometimes forget everyone doesn't have the chapter and verse of where we all are on some points.

 

7 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

I would also like to underline that although I started of saying "the CBA sucks a lot" and "that generally speaking players have too much power" but in no way do I think it's all players' fault. It's the whole system.

 

The CBA is absolutely imperfect, but they've done a lot to clean it up after some of the circumvention abuses.

 

Unfortunately, NMCs have become the "cherry on top" for a lot of agents as they're no longer able to add on three extra years at 43, 44, and 45 to get the AAV down...

[yave1964]

Branche rickey famously stated to always trade players before they turn 30. Judging from the ages of the vast majority of players involved in this discussion Mr.  Rickey would be smiling....... 

[WordsOfWisdom]

3 hours ago, radoran said:

I think this is "the rub" in the whole situation. I don't know how many players are playing "for a championship". I'm sure a lot "want to win a championship" but that putting tens of millions into the bank and securing their and their children's security long term just may have a higher priority.

 

Then you have issues like Toews/Kane/Kopitar - who all won championships before signing the "big deal". Or Tavares, who "wants to win" but was still looking for $11M to do so.

 

I think players want to play on whichever team pays them the most amount of money, in whatever location has the nicest weather, and everything else (winning championships, being in hockey markets, etc.) is secondary. 

 

If a player doesn't have to answer media questions after the game, doesn't have to worry about being recognized in public, and can basically earn millions while blending in and disappearing, they're in hockey heaven. 

 

[hobie]

On 1/16/2019 at 8:16 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

 

#LuxuryTaxSystem

 

TO is basically using this type of advantage and has been for years. Robidas Island.

 

Martin was traded to the NYI, a team that watches it's money. He was originally signed to a 10 mil. contract  and TO had already paid him 7.5 mil. of that contract before the trade. The NYI only has to pay him 2.5 mil. for his last 2 years and probably only traded for him because TO had already paid out most of his contract.

 

Clarkson was signed for obscene money that he soon proved he didn't deserve, CLB had Horton on their books but since his contract wasn't insured they had to pay him for being injured. CLB wanted to not have to pay him, TO wanted to get Cap relief so they were traded for each other. Clarkson rarely played after that but when he was injured CLB didn't have to pay him because he was insured, TO after the trade always had Horton's salary cap space to use.

 

The NHL isn't the KHL, thank God. Player's contracts are basically guaranteed and that's a huge reason that KHL players are attracted to playing in the NHL. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, hobie said:

TO is basically using this type of advantage and has been for years. Robidas Island.

 

They've been taking advantage of some of the quirks of the CBA to get rid of bad contracts. I guess they can do it until it's deemed to be a Lupul  loophole and gets closed.  

 

2 hours ago, hobie said:

Clarkson was signed for obscene money that he soon proved he didn't deserve, CLB had Horton on their books but since his contract wasn't insured they had to pay him for being injured. CLB wanted to not have to pay him, TO wanted to get Cap relief so they were traded for each other. Clarkson rarely played after that but when he was injured CLB didn't have to pay him because he was insured, TO after the trade always had Horton's salary cap space to use.

 

I think it's kind of sad actually that today's NHL involves so many trades along these lines.  Most of today's NHL trades are as inspiring to hockey fans as watching a 500 lb stripper undress. 

 

I'm not saying blow it all up and start over.... but I would like to see a higher cap and a lower floor. I don't think it's unrealistic to tweak something like that. 

 

[hobie]

2 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

They've been taking advantage of some of the quirks of the CBA to get rid of bad contracts. I guess they can do it until it's deemed to be a Lupul  loophole and gets closed.  

 

 

I think it's kind of sad actually that today's NHL involves so many trades along these lines.  Most of today's NHL trades are as inspiring to hockey fans as watching a 500 lb stripper undress. 

 

I'm not saying blow it all up and start over.... but I would like to see a higher cap and a lower floor. I don't think it's unrealistic to tweak something like that. 

 

 

I thought the Clarkson-Horton transaction was exciting for TO and seemed to fit CLB's needs.

 

You want the rich to win, I get it, but the only true way I can see trades being actual trades is by returning to the slave system. Detroit made itself great for years by spending 80 million on their roster, year after year and that's over 20 years ago. Free agency was the first stake in heart of real trades.    

[radoran]

16 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I think players want to play on whichever team pays them the most amount of money, in whatever location has the nicest weather, and everything else (winning championships, being in hockey markets, etc.) is secondary. 

 

So Tavares knows something about Tronno that we don't? I mean, he definitely ticked the "money" box, but the weather and...

 

16 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

If a player doesn't have to answer media questions after the game, doesn't have to worry about being recognized in public, and can basically earn millions while blending in and disappearing, they're in hockey heaven. 

 

... this would seem to contradict your assertion. Also, too, McDavid signing in Edmonton. Eichel in Buffalo.

 

Essentially, I think there are players for whom "winning" is an important thing. I'd say Crosby wants to win, for example. I think Ovechkin was highly motivated to win a Cup.

 

Are there players for whom money, sun, and anonymity are valuable? Sure.

 

And I also think there are guys who have that drive early on, but may not retain it entirely once they're a multimillionaire in their late 20s.

 

But it's not as cut and dried as you make it out to be.

[hobie]

I think that the press really did a number on Leaf fans for years. They told us the climate, fish bowl, taxes and winning needed to be ideal to attract quality free agents and that's why Canadian teams suffer. They said this even after Parise and Suter signed with Minny and kept saying it after Kessel and Phanny resigned in TO.

 

Hockey players are human beings and far too complicated to pigeonhole.

[EJ0226]

22 hours ago, radoran said:

The NMC is another issue and, again, is offered by management. If the player is insisting, management can still walk away.

 

And, as we've seen in Philadelphia, even having an NTC or NMC doesn't mean that a Hartnell or a VLC can't be dealt...

I do wish that the NTC/NMC would dissolve if the GM that gave them gets fired. I think it would help with players that become contempt to know there is a possibility that they can be moved to a worse location unless they perform well and help the team out.

But I do believe Suter and Parise are here to stay. Part is because they are "stars" here and get a lot of "look the other way" from fans. The other part is cause the owner is way to involved with his low hockey IQ and would never part with them if he got the chance.

[radoran]

1 hour ago, EJ0226 said:

I do wish that the NTC/NMC would dissolve if the GM that gave them gets fired. I think it would help with players that become contempt to know there is a possibility that they can be moved to a worse location unless they perform well and help the team out.

 

Then the clause isn't worth the ink it took to print it. Players don't sign with a GM, they sign with the team/organization.

 

I get that guys want stability (especially when family is involved). I don't get why organizations hand them out like candy. The Wild have 3 NMCs and two M-NTCs. The last-place Kings have 3 NMCs, 2 Mod NTCs, and Phaneuf's NMC/ModNTC.

 

2 hours ago, EJ0226 said:

But I do believe Suter and Parise are here to stay. Part is because they are "stars" here and get a lot of "look the other way" from fans. The other part is cause the owner is way to involved with his low hockey IQ and would never part with them if he got the chance. 

 

You may get some relief after 2022. The last three years of the deals pay out $4M total and the last two years are $1M each.

 

I'm betting both sides "agree to walk away" and Parise/Suter retire.

 

Just the circumvention cherry on top for the owner who was a hawk demanding that there be a salary cap to keep small market teams competitive...

[hobie]

3 hours ago, EJ0226 said:

I do wish that the NTC/NMC would dissolve if the GM that gave them gets fired. I think it would help with players that become contempt to know there is a possibility that they can be moved to a worse location unless they perform well and help the team out.

But I do believe Suter and Parise are here to stay. Part is because they are "stars" here and get a lot of "look the other way" from fans. The other part is cause the owner is way to involved with his low hockey IQ and would never part with them if he got the chance.

 

I looked at Minny's stats and see that Parise has the most points and Suter is probably still the best d-man, plays the most minutes.

 

Minny is like most markets where if the team is bad the fans won't come, the owner might have a low hockey IQ but the franchise is still there so he's probably doing most things right.

 

In a short time I expect 7.5 mil. will be the salary of middle of the road talents so I think that their salaries might look like potential anchors now but won't prove to be in the long run.

 

Right now a healthy Parise and healthy Suter are bargains.

[WordsOfWisdom]

15 hours ago, radoran said:

So Tavares knows something about Tronno that we don't? I mean, he definitely ticked the "money" box, but the weather and...

 

You have to admit, players like Tavares are a dying breed. 

 

15 hours ago, radoran said:

And I also think there are guys who have that drive early on, but may not retain it entirely once they're a multimillionaire in their late 20s.

 

But it's not as cut and dried as you make it out to be.

 

True.  I just don't see the same level of desire to play in hockey-mad markets (like original six teams for example) that I used to. If you look at baseball, every player wants to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers. You don't see players clamouring to play for Toronto. Yet, in the NHL, players seem to have no qualms about playing in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Carolina, etc... The draw of traditional hockey markets doesn't seem to hold any sway in the NHL like it does in other sports. 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

13 hours ago, hobie said:

I think that the press really did a number on Leaf fans for years. They told us the climate, fish bowl, taxes and winning needed to be ideal to attract quality free agents and that's why Canadian teams suffer. They said this even after Parise and Suter signed with Minny and kept saying it after Kessel and Phanny resigned in TO.

 

Hockey players are human beings and far too complicated to pigeonhole.

 

There was a sense/feeling/call-it-what-you-will that NHL free agent players would routinely bypass an opportunity to play in Toronto to go to the New York Rangers instead, even when the two teams were equally competitive (or equally non-competitive), leading many to question whether Toronto was at a disadvantage for reasons of taxes, the hockey "fishbowl" as you mentioned, etc. Unless Toronto was overpaying free agents (throwing stupid money at them), there was a feeling that they weren't coming here willingly and that Toronto was never at the top of any player's "list".   

[Hockey-78]

11 hours ago, hobie said:

 

I looked at Minny's stats and see that Parise has the most points and Suter is probably still the best d-man, plays the most minutes.

 

Minny is like most markets where if the team is bad the fans won't come, the owner might have a low hockey IQ but the franchise is still there so he's probably doing most things right.

 

In a short time I expect 7.5 mil. will be the salary of middle of the road talents so I think that their salaries might look like potential anchors now but won't prove to be in the long run.

 

Right now a healthy Parise and healthy Suter are bargains.

Parise is playing well points wise but his leadership has been questioned. Plus will he play like this for 5 more years, past 2 years he was pretty much MIA. Suter gets a lot of criticism after each game, far from being a Norris trophy material with which he was labeled during the signing.

 

So I'd say "bargain" is a reach although I wouldn't complain too much either. The length for both of those contracts was wrong from day 1.

[JR Ewing]

12 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

You have to admit, players like Tavares are a dying breed. 

 

 

True.  I just don't see the same level of desire to play in hockey-mad markets (like original six teams for example) that I used to. If you look at baseball, every player wants to play for the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers. You don't see players clamouring to play for Toronto. Yet, in the NHL, players seem to have no qualms about playing in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Carolina, etc... The draw of traditional hockey markets doesn't seem to hold any sway in the NHL like it does in other sports. 

 

 

I kind of get it with players and the Leafs, because there's a many-decades-long tradition of a toxic media atmosphere. They literally drove Frank Mahovlich to a nervous breakdown.

[ruxpin]

Good list, yave.

 

I'd like to nominate William Nylander for honorable mention.

[hobie]

6 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

I kind of get it with players and the Leafs, because there's a many-decades-long tradition of a toxic media atmosphere. They literally drove Frank Mahovlich to a nervous breakdown.

 

 I don't know about "They", Imlach spent his entire coaching tenure doing his utmost to get the Big M to become the player he thought he should be never settling for what he was and in their 10 years together Imlach never learned to pronounce Frank's last name. There's the toxicity.

 

I think Nylander is probably doing what most players would go thru after missing training camp and 25 games of the regular season. I think people are starting to pull an Imlach on Nylander, expecting him to be a different player because he makes lots of money, he is what he is and I expect with time and experience he'll continue to get better.

 

I miss the Xmas lights at the top, loved smashing them when POed. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, hobie said:

I miss the Xmas lights at the top, loved smashing them when POed. 

 

Maybe he can add Valentine's Day hearts and the hearts can be broken?  

[yave1964]

6 hours ago, ruxpin said:

Good list, yave.

 

I'd like to nominate William Nylander for honorable mention.

Oh damn I forgot all about Nylander. Good one Rux.

[Hockey-78]

7 hours ago, ruxpin said:

Good list, yave.

 

I'd like to nominate William Nylander for honorable mention.

Yeah, one would think after getting that much money if would motivate you to do your utmost. But to be fair, the verdict is still out. Only 20 games. But horrible ones so I concur with the mention.

[JR Ewing]

13 hours ago, hobie said:

 

 I don't know about "They", Imlach spent his entire coaching tenure doing his utmost to get the Big M to become the player he thought he should be never settling for what he was and in their 10 years together Imlach never learned to pronounce Frank's last name. There's the toxicity.

 

I think that's a VERY fair point, re: Mr. Pyramid Power. He rode Mahovlich hard; there's no doubt, and I shouldn't have discounted it. Imlach made going to the rink hard. The media and the fans, though, made going everywhere else hard.

 

13 hours ago, hobie said:

I think Nylander is probably doing what most players would go thru after missing training camp and 25 games of the regular season. I think people are starting to pull an Imlach on Nylander, expecting him to be a different player because he makes lots of money, he is what he is and I expect with time and experience he'll continue to get better.

 

I agree completely, and think that people need to settle down. He's playing catch up, and it will take awhile to get up to speed. He's getting a little bit fewer shots per 60 minutes than his established career levels, it's just that his shooting percentage is a bit less than 1/3 his career average. The goals will happen if he keeps plugging away. He's getting assists on teammate's goals at about the same rate as he ever did. People shouldn't panic.

 

[Hockey-78]

1 hour ago, JR Ewing said:

He's getting assists on teammate's goals at about the same rate as he ever did. People shouldn't panic.

 

 

Well, I'm not panicking since I'm not a Leafs fan.

 

But how do you do your math? 2 A in 19 games. That would mean around 8 A in 82 games. He had 41 A last season. He's far far away from his normal numbers especially in assists.

 

Last year +20, now at -9.

Last year 20 G, now on pace for 4. He needs to improve a lot. Plus the "still rusty" explanation is after 19 games growing old pretty fast.

[ruxpin]

41 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

Well, I'm not panicking since I'm not a Leafs fan.

 

But how do you do your math? 2 A in 19 games. That would mean around 8 A in 82 games. He had 41 A last season. He's far far away from his normal numbers especially in assists.

 

Last year +20, now at -9.

Last year 20 G, now on pace for 4. He needs to improve a lot. Plus the "still rusty" explanation is after 19 games growing old pretty fast.

Well, he's doing his math fine. The key word is rate, and the point is that his teammates are scoring a lot less.  But the percentage of goals that are scored that he assists on is in range with previous. 

 

I haven't checked to see whether this is true, but that's what's being asserted. 

 

I know the Leafs scoring is down across the board from what it is earlier. And because it's multiple lines, the argument goes that it isn't Nylander.  I'm not personally willing to acquit him of being the cause.  Because the timing of his return is difficult to argue against (although it did also coincide with Matthews' injury and return.  With Nylander's return, I do wonder about the locker room and on ice chemistry at this point. 

 

One can argue whether it's justified or not, but I havs to wonder if some in the locker room are thinking, "you selfish, soft, little b****. 

[JR Ewing]

51 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

Well, I'm not panicking since I'm not a Leafs fan.

 

But how do you do your math? 2 A in 19 games. That would mean around 8 A in 82 games. He had 41 A last season. He's far far away from his normal numbers especially in assists.

 

I don't blame you for wondering what I mean.

 

No, he definitely isn't getting as many assists as before. What I meant was something very specific: the rate at which he's getting assists on his teammate's goals, which I un-creatively call Assist Percentage. This is something I switched to about 15 years ago, as it helps when comparing players across era or teammate quality. That would be:

 

A / (TGF - G)

where A equals the assists the player has, TGF equals all of the goals scored while the player is on the ice, and G are the goals the player himself scored, since he obviously can't get an assists on his own goals. Side-point: TGF, PGF, TGF and TGA are nice little numbers, btw. Using those, I've been able to estimate ice time back to the late 1960s... Anyway.

 

Heading into this year, Nylander has been on the ice for 131 total goals for, scoring 52 goals, leaving 131 possible goals for him to possibly register an assist. In that time, he was awarded 92 assists, meaning that he picked them up on 70.2% of the Leafs goals scored while he was on the ice. He is a VERY good playmaker.

 

But here's where we get into the real bastard of a situation. I accidentally looked at his Adjusted Assists instead of just plain-old assists, which is a boo-boo on my part. Assist Percentage is a great way of looking at playmakers, but it doesn't mean squat when you use the wrong damned number. You're right: he really is struggling there, as it's only 28.6% so far this year.

 

51 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said:

Last year +20, now at -9.

Last year 20 G, now on pace for 4. He needs to improve a lot. Plus the "still rusty" explanation is after 19 games growing old pretty fast.

 

For what it's worth, he has an Expected +/- of +3.7 so far this year. So, what's his hold-up here? The Leafs goalies have a collective Save Percentage of only .887 when he's played. It will crater anybody's +/- when that happens.

 

I think the goals will come. He's shooting about as much as he ever did (7 Shots/60 minutes compared to 8 so far in his career). He's a career 10.5% shooter who's currently shooting at 5%. Should come around. His CF% is 54% while his GoalsFor% is only 37%. People can question how valuable Corsi is but it's very unusual to have a situation where those numbers are so far apart for very long before they rebound to being closer to together. A difference of 5% is generally notable. More than three times that is pretty unsustainable, whether you're outscoring or being outscored. I think it will come around if they keep at it.

 

[JR Ewing]

38 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Well, he's doing his math fine. The key word is rate, and the point is that his teammates are scoring a lot less.  But the percentage of goals that are scored that he assists on is in range with previous. 

 

I haven't checked to see whether this is true, but that's what's being asserted.

 

I wish I was. I accidentally used his adjusted numbers instead of his actual assists.    lol