Hockey-78 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, ruxpin said: Well, he's doing his math fine. The key word is rate, and the point is that his teammates are scoring a lot less. But the percentage of goals that are scored that he assists on is in range with previous. I haven't checked to see whether this is true, but that's what's being asserted. I know the Leafs scoring is down across the board from what it is earlier. And because it's multiple lines, the argument goes that it isn't Nylander. I'm not personally willing to acquit him of being the cause. Because the timing of his return is difficult to argue against (although it did also coincide with Matthews' injury and return. With Nylander's return, I do wonder about the locker room and on ice chemistry at this point. One can argue whether it's justified or not, but I havs to wonder if some in the locker room are thinking, "you selfish, soft, little b****. I see, that kind of math. One always learns something new. Well, in that case their goal scoring is heavily down. But my first thought is that counting in favor/against Nylander the goal scoring of every line seems kind of odd. They surely must be thinking that, especially now that he's playing like he is. I dare say, reminding too much of his dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: I wish I was. I accidentally used his adjusted numbers instead of his actual assists. lol Great. Now I have to apologize. You put your faith in somebody and what does it get you. Lol (at least I did mention I hadn't verified myself) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said: I see, that kind of math. One always learns something new. Well, in that case their goal scoring is heavily down. But my first thought is that counting in favor/against Nylander the goal scoring of every line seems kind of odd. They surely must be thinking that, especially now that he's playing like he is. I dare say, reminding too much of his dad. Well, apparently, even the common core math was wrong. Apologies. Though in my defense, @JR Ewingis usually spot on. Though you have to pay attention to the caveats because it's often something like, "he's a 78% shooter when the person in Section 112, row 21, seat 4 wears red." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hockey-78 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: I don't blame you for wondering what I mean. No, he definitely isn't getting as many assists as before. What I meant was something very specific: the rate at which he's getting assists on his teammate's goals, which I un-creatively call Assist Percentage. This is something I switched to about 15 years ago, as it helps when comparing players across era or teammate quality. That would be: A / (TGF - G) where A equals the assists the player has, TGF equals all of the goals scored while the player is on the ice, and G are the goals the player himself scored, since he obviously can't get an assists on his own goals. Side-point: TGF, PGF, TGF and TGA are nice little numbers, btw. Using those, I've been able to estimate ice time back to the late 1960s... Anyway. Heading into this year, Nylander has been on the ice for 131 total goals for, scoring 52 goals, leaving 131 possible goals for him to possibly register an assist. In that time, he was awarded 92 assists, meaning that he picked them up on 70.2% of the Leafs goals scored while he was on the ice. He is a VERY good playmaker. But here's where we get into the real bastard of a situation. I accidentally looked at his Adjusted Assists instead of just plain-old assists, which is a boo-boo on my part. Assist Percentage is a great way of looking at playmakers, but it doesn't mean squat when you use the wrong damned number. You're right: he really is struggling there, as it's only 28.6% so far this year. For what it's worth, he has an Expected +/- of +3.7 so far this year. So, what's his hold-up here? The Leafs goalies have a collective Save Percentage of only .887 when he's played. It will crater anybody's +/- when that happens. I think the goals will come. He's shooting about as much as he ever did (7 Shots/60 minutes compared to 8 so far in his career). He's a career 10.5% shooter who's currently shooting at 5%. Should come around. His CF% is 54% while his GoalsFor% is only 37%. People can question how valuable Corsi is but it's very unusual to have a situation where those numbers are so far apart for very long before they rebound to being closer to together. A difference of 5% is generally notable. More than three times that is pretty unsustainable, whether you're outscoring or being outscored. I think it will come around if they keep at it. Thanks bud, very informative. I appreciate the effort you put in to that post! Needless to say you have far more detail knowledge of the game than I do. Though I've probably said it before. While I'm digesting everything you said and obviously not trying to pick a fight, I think developing and analyzing stats that go this deep; assist percentages and all... really necessary? Oh well, I've seen him play twice now and wouldn't call his performances as eye candy for a HC. If he can be effective while playing like that, call me surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 48 minutes ago, Hockey-78 said: While I'm digesting everything you said and obviously not trying to pick a fight, I think developing and analyzing stats that go this deep; assist percentages and all... really necessary? There's two guys standing in a field, and the guy on the left seems to be a bit taller than the fellow on the right. Or, at least it looks like that from a distance. You can't quite see their feet, but that's ok. You get a little closer, and you see that the guy on the left is wearing boots, but the one on the right is bare foot. Oh, ok. You get a little closer, and now you see that the guy on the right is standing in a shallow depression. You walk yet closer and now you can see that the guy on the left is not only wearing boots, but that he's standing on a small box. Finally, you walk up, ask the guy to get off the box and take off his boots, and what do you find? He's wearing lifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: There's two guys standing in a field, and the guy on the left seems to be a bit taller than the fellow on the right. Or, at least it looks like that from a distance. You can't quite see their feet, but that's ok. You get a little closer, and you see that the guy on the left is wearing boots, but the one on the right is bare foot. Oh, ok. You get a little closer, and now you see that the guy on the right is standing in a shallow depression. You walk yet closer and now you can see that the guy on the left is not only wearing boots, but that he's standing on a small box. Finally, you walk up, ask the guy to get off the box and take off his boots, and what do you find? He's wearing lifts. I have to ask. If two guys are standing in a field, why are we so consumed by which one is taller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, ruxpin said: I have to ask. If two guys are standing in a field, why are we so consumed by which one is taller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 19 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: Out of curiosity, have you seen your mail in Allstars or are you hoping I go away? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, ruxpin said: Out of curiosity, have you seen your mail in Allstars or are you hoping I go away? LOL I can't think of the last time I even went to the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 33 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: I can't think of the last time I even went to the site. Well, when you have a minute, would you please answer your phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 hours ago, JR Ewing said: A / (TGF - G) where A equals the assists the player has, TGF equals all of the goals scored while the player is on the ice, and G are the goals the player himself scored, since he obviously can't get an assists on his own goals. Side-point: TGF, PGF, TGF and TGA are nice little numbers, btw. Using those, I've been able to estimate ice time back to the late 1960s... Anyway. Fascinating... 7 hours ago, JR Ewing said: Heading into this year, Nylander has been on the ice for 131 total goals for, scoring 52 goals, leaving 131 possible goals for him to possibly register an assist. In that time, he was awarded 92 assists, meaning that he picked them up on 70.2% of the Leafs goals scored while he was on the ice. He is a VERY good playmaker. SCREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETCH!!! (Stop the bus for a moment.) To me, a play-maker creates goals for team mates. So the fact that he's IN on 70.2% of the assists just means he's hanging around the offensive zone and pucks are bouncing off him. It's often a product of circumstance rather than divine planning. You really have to see how his linemates do WITH him versus WITHOUT him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said: Fascinating... SCREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETCH!!! (Stop the bus for a moment.) To me, a play-maker creates goals for team mates. So the fact that he's IN on 70.2% of the assists just means he's hanging around the offensive zone and pucks are bouncing off him. It's often a product of circumstance rather than divine planning. You really have to see how his linemates do WITH him versus WITHOUT him. Wayne Gretzky is the all-time leader in Assist Percentage, at just under 75%... All of the top guys in A% are considered to be among the greatest playmakers ever. I'll be sure to think of Wayne as a product of circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobie Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 That Nylander is an assist machine is undeniable, Matthews has been very reliant on Nylander in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 hours ago, JR Ewing said: Wayne Gretzky is the all-time leader in Assist Percentage, at just under 75%... All of the top guys in A% are considered to be among the greatest playmakers ever. I'll be sure to think of Wayne as a product of circumstance. I'd like to see a list of these A% leaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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