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RonJeremy

If we cant sign Panerin should we offer sheet Kapenan?

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3 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

Two things, first, you aren't getting Kakko for Ghost. Two, you can protect all four if you choose, and I could certainly see the Flyers doing so if that's where the value is to the roster.

 

Or, you just play Ghost at wing for the 20-21 season.

How do you know that , Ghost is a highly skilled offensive dman with a good contract. As you say defenseman are worth alot. I think that's a fair trade the second or third pick for Ghost. 

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Just now, AJgoal said:

I understand that, sorry if I came across as railing on you. I'm just angry at the thought that the management might actually do something so blatantly stupid.

 

At this point of the proceedings, I'm surprised you can even get angry at the thought that the management might actually do something so blatantly stupid. I just expect it.

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1 minute ago, RonJeremy said:

How do you know that , Ghost is a highly skilled offensive dman with a good contract. As you say defenseman are worth alot. I think that's a fair trade the second or third pick for Ghost. 

 

Because draft picks at the draft are insanely valuable, and top 3 picks never move. 

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3 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

How do you know that , Ghost is a highly skilled offensive dman with a good contract. As you say defenseman are worth alot. I think that's a fair trade the second or third pick for Ghost. 

 

As has been stated there is no point of worrying about the expansion draft right now.

 

They need to worry about the playoffs.

 

That is it right now.

 

Then if they don't make it the draft is next and then the offseason and then next year's roster.

 

It's all that matters right now till the end of the 2019-20 season.

 

There is plenty of time to worry about the expansion draft when it gets here. Till then there are bigger fish that need to be fried.

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26 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

How do you know that , Ghost is a highly skilled offensive dman with a good contract. As you say defenseman are worth alot. I think that's a fair trade the second or third pick for Ghost. 

 

By the tie this happens the Flyers will have a kid ready to take Ghost spot if he gets plucked Yegor Zamula has put up better numbers in juniors so far as Myers did at the same time he got signed as a undrafted free agent....and he has one more year of junior to play.

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2 hours ago, AJgoal said:

It's terrible thinking, and terrible asset management, to jettison guys now because you're worrying about expansion.

 

It's terrible asset management if you just "jettison" Ghost.

 

I'm not riding him out of town on a rail. but if the right deal comes along you have to at least consider it.

 

And the parameters you outline - a 65-point defenceman on a favorable contract - certainly factor in to that decision about what's "the right deal."

 

But right now, he's not a 65-point defenceman, he's playing like he was in his sophomore season - a 40-point defenceman. Not chopped liver, by any stretch. But not a "Erik Karlsson Lite" that he looked last season (Karlsson hit 78 points in his third season and hasn't dropped below 62 (in a full season) since).

 

And, yes, I know, Hakstol neutered his game... Of course, he did score 65 last year under Hakstol... But, if true - and Hakstol did destroy his confidence and his game - shouldn't they try to maximize that asset now if they can?

 

 

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41 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

But right now, he's not a 65-point defenceman

 

Even better reason why you don't trade him now.

 

No need to sell low.

 

And then awe lawd the boards would erupt if he goes to his next team and puts up a 70-80 point season we would never hear the end of the blah blah blah why did we trade this guy spiel for eons....

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32 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

It's terrible asset management if you just "jettison" Ghost.

 

I'm not riding him out of town on a rail. but if the right deal comes along you have to at least consider it.

 

And the parameters you outline - a 65-point defenceman on a favorable contract - certainly factor in to that decision about what's "the right deal."

 

But right now, he's not a 65-point defenceman, he's playing like he was in his sophomore season - a 40-point defenceman. Not chopped liver, by any stretch. But not a "Erik Karlsson Lite" that he looked last season (Karlsson hit 78 points in his third season and hasn't dropped below 62 (in a full season) since).

 

And, yes, I know, Hakstol neutered his game... Of course, he did score 65 last year under Hakstol... But, if true - and Hakstol did destroy his confidence and his game - shouldn't they try to maximize that asset now if they can?

 

 

 

I don't disagree. If the right deal comes along, you make the move. I feel the same about any player. But I think the right deal is going to be hard to find with Ghost. 

 

The interesting thing about Ghost is that his 5v5 production really hasn't changed from last year to this year. He's down 0.01goals/60 and 0.11 assists/60 at 5v5, and his shooting percentage is down 0.03%. His shot suppression metrics have gone down a bit from last year to this year, but he's still one of the top defensemen on the team when it comes to limiting opponent's chances to score.

 

Where his numbers have tumbled is on the powerplay. I think that's a combination of factors, and he's certainly one of them - he really hasn't seemed confident in his shot this year. But over the past several weeks, he seems to be regaining his confidence elsewhere on the ice, and is even playing with a bit of an edge we've never seen before. I'm leery of moving a guy out, with the upside he's shown, when he looks like he may be getting it back together. Especially since the evidence is there that you'd be selling low. 

 

Given Ghost's contract, the Flyers' cap situation, and his proven NHL upside, I think it behooves the team to hold him for a year under the next coaching regime before deciding he's not going to regain form. There's absolutely no reason to rush into a decision. 

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There is also this to consider about Ghost, he has a chip on his shoulder. 

He was too small, and from Florida ? is there even ice in Florida ? He went to college and not juniors... his sister is actually a better skater.

Yet, here he is in the NHL and one the better scorers at his position, someone whom goalies don't want bombing away at them from anywhere and certainly don't want him bearing down on them 2 on 1 with someone... He is a difference maker in the best league in the world. 

Dude is a fighter, he has zero bum in him, why trade "that" guy ? 

The offer needs to improve the team and like @AJgoal says, there aren't many scenarios where that happens. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

his sister is actually a better skater.

 

Lol

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I should add, for the sake of the topic, that they absolutely should be willing to use offer sheets. Everyone should.

 

But they don't. And won't.

 

The best thing an offer sheet ever did was to blackball Homer out of the GM's chair.

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1 hour ago, AJgoal said:

I'm leery of moving a guy out, with the upside he's shown, when he looks like he may be getting it back together. Especially since the evidence is there that you'd be selling low. 

 

I like the player, but I don't see him ever getting back to the 11% shooting that he displayed in his first year.

 

If he can stay at his current career average at around 5.9% he's likely to be that 60+ point guy (which is what he did and was last year). Unfortunately, two of his seasons have been at under 4%.

 

I absolutely concur that you don't ship him out now "to avoid the expansion draft." And that his value is not now what it c/should be.

 

5 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

Yet, here he is in the NHL and one the better scorers at his position

 

He's a great story, to be sure. He's also 38th in the league amongst qualifying defencemen (23rd in total points if you consider "ties" in points).

 

On that note, Sanheim is tied with him in points (and shooting at what may be an unsustainable 9% clip).

 

What I want to see from him is more consistency game-to-game and year-to-year.

 

2 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

The offer needs to improve the team and like @AJgoal says, there aren't many scenarios where that happens. 

 

No, there aren't many. But the "m" in "many" is an important caveat... 👺

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17 hours ago, radoran said:

I should add, for the sake of the topic, that they absolutely should be willing to use offer sheets. Everyone should.

 

But they don't. And won't.

 

The best thing an offer sheet ever did was to blackball Homer out of the GM's chair.

 

Agreed. If you can land Marner or Point for anything less than the 4 1sts package, it's a worth the picks. These aren't old guys, they're players coming off their ELCs with their whole prime in front of them. 

 

If there are no offer sheets this offseason, players absolutely should do everything in their power to fix the system.

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RE Offer Sheets:

Help me understand, Four years of first round draft picks ? 

-so 4 years -no first round picks because a team signed one guy ?

Four years that team gets your picks because you signed a guy to an offer sheet ?  4 years ? 

who would do that ?

That is a long time to not get to choose any top end young salary controllable players. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

RE Offer Sheets:

Help me understand, Four years of first round draft picks ? 

-so 4 years -no first round picks because a team signed one guy ?

Four years that team gets your picks because you signed a guy to an offer sheet ?  4 years ? 

who would do that ?

That is a long time to not get to choose any top end young salary controllable players.

 

Totally agree. But I don't think we're talking about a $10+M offer sheet (to lose four first rounders). But somewhere in the $4-6M  and dropping a 1st and 3rd? That's more doable and doesn't gut your draft for years.

 

Hidden Content

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Not sure what the specific numbers look like for 2019's RFA class, but should be somewhat around those numbers.

 

There's also the consideration of who is available:

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Do you take a shot at a Kapanen for $5M or so and give up a 1st and 3rd for him? I think it's a conversation we might have. I'm just not sure an NHL GM does it.

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42 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

who would do that ?

 

Paul Holmgren....thank God the Preds matched.

 

Imagine what could have been:

 

Shea Weber

 

for

 

Sam Morin

Travis Sanheim

Ivan Provorov

German Rubtsov

 

Consider bullet dodged....thank you David Poile...were would the Flyers be if he didn't match that offer sheet.

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8 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Paul Holmgren....thank God the Preds matched.

 

Imagine what could have been:

 

Shea Weber

 

for

 

Sam Morin

Travis Sanheim

Ivan Provorov

German Rubtsov

 

Consider bullet dodged....thank you David Poile...were would the Flyers be if he didn't match that offer sheet.

We would be Ottawa. 

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On 3/11/2019 at 6:02 PM, RonJeremy said:

Well, what right wing snipers do you have in mind?

 

Andreas Johnson........he showed up tonight.

 

A goal his 20th and an assist tonight in their loss.

 

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I would love to take this kid.

 

And has some very underrated speed the other get the press but i like this guy should cost much.

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20 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Imagine what could have been:

 

Shea Weber

 

for

 

Sam Morin

Travis Sanheim

Ivan Provorov

German Rubtsov

 

Obviously the four first rounders is a complete non-starter. As your post ably displays, losing four years of young talent is an absurd overpayment for anybody.

 

I do think that looking at the mid-range $5-6M for a 1st and 3rd is not out of the question.

 

Really depends on the player and the "fit" with the team.

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11 minutes ago, radoran said:

I do think that looking at the mid-range $5-6M for a 1st and 3rd is not out of the question.

 

Yes this is doable.

 

Giving up 4 first rounders you have to get a stud back in that a generational talent or close to it.

 

And Weber at 26 honestly at the time seemed worth it. However that crazy contract he signed is what made that look so horrible.

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On 3/11/2019 at 4:29 PM, RonJeremy said:

The general consensus is we need a second line center , a skilled scoring right wing and a veteran dman. I really dont think we should go after Duschene, paying 9 million for a 20 goal , 60 point center when we have Frost is just insane.

Panarin is the kind of dynamic scorer we could use, but if the price is unrealistic or he isn't interested in Philly , would it be a good move to offer sheet Kapenen? He is pretty dynamic and looks like he could blossom into a big scorer. Toronto is cash strapped,  so maybe we take advantage of that. He could very well be a 30 goal man and cost half of what Panarin wants.

As far as defense, I know they will probably trade for one, so that leaves someone as the odd man out. With Meyers and Sanheims offensive skills, I have a feeling Ghost will be the odd man out

 

Too late to offer sheet anyone.  The time to do that would have been over the summer or while Nylander was holding out.  

It's generally a terrible idea to offer sheet a player at this point.  It's a big part of what screwed the team so badly when Homer was in charge.  Essentially after the Weber offer sheet, other GM's more or less black balled him for anything that might remotely benefit the Flyers and that's a big part of how they ended up so screwed.

 

If Hextall could have made a play for Nylander while he was holding out and essentially traded them Simmonds at the same time for squat, it would have worked out well for everyone.  Who knows if he even tried. He was apparently in on some 3C options over the summer that didn't pan out, so who knows?    It would have been interesting to see how Nylander responded on a new team though.  He essentially would have lost all the leverage he had on the Maple Leafs  and would likely have had to accept a cheaper deal. 

 

That said, Toronto will HAVE TO MAKE SOME SERIOUS TRADES with some of their key names this summer. Kapanen among them. They literally have no choice.  I'd be happy to have him, he's not the Panarin type top line difference maker we all dream about, but he is a solid player who would improve the 3rd line.  They're going to want a trade.  They're going to push for our D men, but to be honest, they're not in much of a bargaining position and I would push for picks and their cap situation is going to be so bad, they may just have to go for picks.  If they insist, I they can have Hagg and we can hope Myers likes to hit and Morin is healthy (because I KNOW he likes to hit).

 

Looking at our young D and their situation, my big fear is that they're going to push for Myers and settle for Morin and a pick.  That will likely bite us in the rear.  Hagg's the most I'd part with because they're over a barrell.  They can of course have Mac and a (albeit higher) pick!

 

A lot of the jabber on the off season moves for the Flyers is focused on 3C (or maybe 2C) and moving Frosty to the wing if they bring in a 3C (and assuming Frost makes the team).  I wasn't originally a huge an of this because Frost's game is really build around his vision and play making, but maybe bringing him into the league as a RW and giving him less responsibility right off the bat.  For once I'd love to see a rookie come into the Flyers and just let loose instead of having all of us complain about how he's not scoring enough and not acknowledging it's because this team emphasizes back checking and D zone coverage for it's centers way more than a lot of other teams.  Let him come in and just be an awesome Wing like Kane or Marner.  Maybe it's not a bad idea.  

 

That would push the UFA attention from Panarin to Matt Duchene or maybe Dzingle or Kevin Hayes.  For me I think Panarin is like Bryce Harper, you go get him and figure out how he fits.  But I think you gotta talk to the three Centers above at the same time and if the Panarin stakes get to high, go with a center.

 

I'm not a fan of Duchene.  It seems every team he goes to gets better as soon as he leaves.  But he does produce. We already have a Jake and a JVR though, so if we sign someone who produces without much back checking, he'd better REALLY produce.  

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4 minutes ago, King Knut said:

I'm not a fan of Duchene

 

I am not either. Dude is the center version of JVR when it comes to the 200 foot game....and that is without the goal scoring capability...at least JVR has something he can be useful at.

 

Do not even kick the tires on this dude.

 

He is not what the Flyers need.

 

Panarin is the guy on the market they should target.

 

Spend the resources and time on this guy if you strike then try another option.

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7 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I am not either. Dude is the center version of JVR when it comes to the 200 foot game....and that is without the goal scoring capability...at least JVR has something he can be useful at.

 

Do not even kick the tires on this dude.

 

He is not what the Flyers need.

 

Panarin is the guy on the market they should target.

 

Spend the resources and time on this guy if you strike then try another option.

 

My fear is that Holmgren, and Scott (and therefore Fletcher) will feel the need for the bigger splash signing and if they can't get Panarin, that doesn't leave much as far as wingers and if they zone in on a center, Dzingle or Hayes are your next bets and they're okay, but not the kind of guys whose face you put on the building after you sign them.  

 

If they can work a deal with the Leafs to get one of their forwards for Hagg/Mac/Picks, then I'm in on that as a backup to Panarin as well.  

 

No one will really know what's best for Frost anyway.  That'll be the crap shoot ahem I mean challenge.  

Edited by King Knut

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27 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

My fear is that Holmgren, and Scott (and therefore Fletcher) will feel the need for the bigger splash signing and if they can't get Panarin, that doesn't leave much as far as wingers and if they zone in on a center, Dzingle or Hayes are your next bets and they're okay, but not the kind of guys whose face you put on the building after you sign them.  

 

If they can work a deal with the Leafs to get one of their forwards for Hagg/Mac/Picks, then I'm in on that as a backup to Panarin as well.  

 

No one will really know what's best for Frost anyway.  That'll be the crap shoot ahem I mean challenge.  

 

Those two guys mentioned as the 3rd line center options would be fine with me.

 

However depends on the term and cost per year too...that could change my mind.

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      I keep seeing this sort of nonsense. That's TWO SEASONS AWAY. It's terrible thinking, and terrible asset management, to jettison guys now because you're worrying about expansion. Ice the best team you can. When the expansion draft rolls around, worry about it then. You're going to lose a player.  He's likely to actually be a pretty good one, and it will suck. If it's not a pretty good one, it's because you've decimated your talent level making sure that you don't lose a good one in the draft. Do
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      For Marner or Point, I'm easily willing to go all the way up to $10,148,302 (2 1sts, 1 second, 1 third). If you're lucky, Toronto signs someone else on or before July 1 and eats their available offseason cap down below 10 million from what I guess will be ~13 million with the new cap + offseason cushion.
    • 2
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      Unfortunately I don't disagree with this assessment.   I just think it's a dumb move if it's made. What are the chances of getting a 65 point forward, on a good contract for his prime years? Because that's what you're giving up if you move Ghost, and Ghost plays the more premium position vs. a winger.
    • 2
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      I should add, for the sake of the topic, that they absolutely should be willing to use offer sheets. Everyone should.   But they don't. And won't.   The best thing an offer sheet ever did was to blackball Homer out of the GM's chair.
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      RE Offer Sheets: Help me understand, Four years of first round draft picks ?  -so 4 years -no first round picks because a team signed one guy ? Four years that team gets your picks because you signed a guy to an offer sheet ?  4 years ?  who would do that ? That is a long time to not get to choose any top end young salary controllable players.     
    • 2
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      They really boned themselves with Nylander.  Should have just traded him. Especially after the season started and it became pretty apparent how superfluous he was.     Now guys who who are straight up better than he is are up for new contracts and they have his contract and Matthews’ & Tavares’ to directly compare to.     And trading him?  I mean they could trade him but the contract is certainly unattractive (watch Fletcher trade for him now) and it won’t be as easy to m
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