8 Games Left

[King Knut]

How HUGE do those two stinking Montreal losses turn out to be!

 

Long story short is that Columbus definitely has the easiest schedule from here on out.  They will likely get in because the Habs, Canes and Flyers all have it tougher.   

 

That said, the Flyers have two games against the Hurricanes who will have just had 4 games in 6 nights when they next face the Flyers.

 

Still, the Flyers have to beat everyone at this point and they simply haven't been good at stepping up against teams ahead of them in the standings not named Penguins or Islanders.  

[intheslot]

Physicists have confirmed that matter and antimatter decay differently for elementary particles containing

[intheslot]

Wrong Forum...

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

How HUGE do those two stinking Montreal losses turn out to be!

 

 

I said before both games. Sure I'm not the only one but that last one really hurt.

 

So even if they win out the max they can finish with is 96.

 

So they need Montreal to lose 3 of their 8 remaining games because they have the ROW edge over Montreal.

 

Right or is my math bad?

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

I said before both games. Sure I'm not the only one but that last one really hurt.

 

So even if they win out the max they can finish with is 96.

 

So they need Montreal to lose 3 of their 8 remaining games because they have the ROW edge over Montreal.

 

Right or is my math bad?

 

I don’t think your math’s wrong. 

 

Flyers have to win all 8 remaining games. 

Thats not likely the way they’ve been playing. They’re only beating the teams they should right now. 

 

Its a shame because I think they’re better than the Isles, Pens and Maybe even Boston, but they’re not better than the Caps, Leafs (though it was close) and apparently the Habs. But they took long to fire a Hakstol so here we are.  

 

They have to make up 6 points on the Habs and 7 on the Canes tonovertake either. 

 

In the “win out” scenario, the Flyers will necessarily have to beat the Canes twice, meaning they’d then only need another reg loss and an OT loss from the canes to tie them.  This is not as insane as it sounds.  The Canes play the Habs, the Caps twice, the Penguins and the Leafs, losing twice in just those 5 games isn’t at all crazy. 

 

The Habs only need to lose 3 times but all are now independent of the Flyers.  The Flyers would have been one point out of the playoffs right now if they’d taken those two games, but they really just weren’t even close in either game. 

 

The Habs play the Canes, the BJ’s, the Jets, Lightning, Caps and Leafs to end the season.  That’s 6 games that were very losable and we need them to go .500 I. That stretch.  Not crazy really. 

 

Obviously the Habs and Canes can’t both lose the game in which they play each other, so at the onset, as long as it doesn’t go to OT, there’s a plus (and a minus) to whoever wins. Worst case scenario is an OT game. 

 

It’s not even impossible to imagine those two teams losing more than we need them to down the stretch. It’s far easier than imagining the Flyers not losing again all season, which is the absurd scenario this is all predicated upon. 

 

NOW, all that said, look out because the BJ’s ain’t done yet either and I’m fact have BY FAR the easiest remaining schedule, playing only the HABs, Bruins & Preds of much note. 

 

IMHO, if the Flyers are going to get in, they not only have to win out, but Also need both the Habs AND Canes to lose  3 and 4 games respectively because it’s most likely the Blue Jackets will overtake both of them based purely on schedule alone. 

 

I think I may have pointed it out before, but the last game of the season for the Flyers is vs the Canes in Philly.  Can you even imagine if they Goni to that game tied or a point behind the Canes?  

 

Finally, I am not worried about the WOR tie breaker because if it becomes a factor, the Flyers will almost definitely have as many ROW as any team they’d be tied in points with.  

 

Theyre 3 ROW behind the Habs (which is exactly as many games as we need the Habs to lose) and 4 ROW behind the Canes (exactly how many games we need them to lose). 

 

What’s the next tie breaker? Goals For? 

At the moment the Flyers nave the edge on all three aforementioned teams ahead of them in that dept and it’s hard to imagine that changing if the Flyers win out. 

 

But again... the flyers winning out is absurd.  It’s SOOO unlikely to happen but it’d be historic and friggin amazing to see... which it really isn’t gonna happen. But it’s not impossible. I guess. 

 

And even if it’s not gonna happen, it’ll still be depressing.  

 

No matter what, there’s a lot of meaningful hockey left to be played. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, King Knut said:

No matter what, there’s a lot of meaningful hockey left to be played.

 

Reinforcements could be on the way...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Howie58]

I hate to be the killjoy, but talk about playoffs is a smokescreen. These guys are playing to justify their salaries and status.  A guy like Hartman has to wonder if he'll be jettisoned.  Elliott (if he ever plays) has to ponder if his days in the league are numbered. Giroux and Voracek have to wonder about their legacy as players--yeah, they are good, but can they anchor a deep playoff run.....hmmmm.  Candidly, I think of John Ford's film, "They Were Expendable," in reflecting on this squad.  I would not shed many tears if most of them were "made redundant" as the Brits say.This team is not cut out for elite NHL play.  To his credit, Fletcher has cut some of the deadwood. But major surgery is needed. We ended 2017-18 with 98 points and I doubt we'll get there this year, despite end-of-season heroics.  We will look back at the Simmonds trade as the first move towards a major blowup.  I hope our recent draft picks are as good as we think.  I won't hold my breath. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

I hate to be the killjoy, but talk about playoffs is a smokescreen.

 

It's just talk because it's highly unlikely...they squandered their chance and can look in the mirror on that one. But for now it gives us something to talk about besides the offseason/draft/coaching change which we will have plenty of time to discuss once the season is over. Also i am trying the jinx out....it always seems to work that whatever i say will happen the opposite does...so maybe it works.

 

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

A guy like Hartman has to wonder if he'll be jettisoned. 

 

For sure they can use him this bottom 6 needs to be retooled and Hartman is fit for it. Now i mean no harm to the guys but Varone and Knight can f**k off because if they want to be like the Caps and Bolts of the NHL than you can't have AHL scrubs in the lineup.

 

Sorry you just can't. We'll use Tampa's 4th line as a template so let's look at their stats and where the Flyers need to be.

 

Their 4th:

 

Gourde: 20 goals 24 assist for 44 points.

Paquette: 12 goals 4 assist for 18 points.

Erne: 7 goals 12 assists for 19 points.

 

So that is a good contributing line to their success. Gourde is their sniper for that line and is only 5-9 175.

 

The other two are both 6-1200+. So you don't always have to be a banger to play on the 4th you just have to be relentless and can skate and in Gourde's case be able to score and make the other team pay.

 

So a 4th to me might be a nice mix of Raffl/Laughton/Hatman and maybe if they sign a Panarin then you could maybe slot Lindblom on the 4th. And that isn't a bad thing these days if you are planning to roll 4 lines everyone can contribute.

 

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Elliott (if he ever plays) has to ponder if his days in the league are numbered.

 

This is the one i don't know about.

 

Can you count on this guy?? Can he stay healthy???

 

It is why i would have loved to see Talbot so we would have a better idea of how he can help was he bad in Edmonton or was that the results of the team in front of him. Guess we'll never know.

 

11 hours ago, Howie58 said:

But major surgery is needed.

 

Giroux Coots Voracek

????? Patrick Konecny

JVR ?????? Hartman

Lindblom Laughton Aube Kubel

 

He just has to decide if he is going to resign Raffl will he make a run at Panarin which i would like and who will be the 4rd line center.

 

Will he leave it open so Forst can try for it or will he try to sign a 3rd line center.

[intheslot]

Physicists have confirmed that matter and antimatter decay differently for elementary particles containing charmed quarks. The findings may also indicate new physics beyond the Standard Model, which describes how fundamental particles interact with one another.

full post.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Just win.

[OccamsRazor]

Well with Raffl's extension i am guessing it looks like this..

 

Giroux Coots Voracek

????? Patrick Konecny

JVR ?????? Hartman

Lindblom Laughton Aube Kubel

Raffl

 

They lose tomorrow night and the Canadians win the Flyers are out officially.

 

Then we should get a look at Talbot, Morin and NAK to where they might slot going into next year.

 

So i am hoping for a loss so we can move on and close out the year. 

[elmatus]

4 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Well with Raffl's extension i am guessing it looks like this..

 

Giroux Coots Voracek

????? Patrick Konecny

JVR ?????? Hartman

Lindblom Laughton Aube Kubel

Raffl

 

Panarin is the only player available who could possibly move the LW line up that way though, and there's no telling where he'll sign. It would be nice if he signed in Philly, but he may prefer going to a team that can at least make the playoffs or something. I don't know what his criteria will be. All to say I think you can basically move all those LW up a notch in your line up projections.

 

That glaring hole at 3C is something we've been forced to deal with for years now. Part of me wonders quite honestly if the 3C position is the hardest hole to fill in any given line up. It just seem to be such a crossroads type position for so many reasons.

 

I'll be curious to see if Fletch and whoever the new coach is find someone to slot there in the off season, or if they decide to just let the current LHV crop duke it out in camp.

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Panarin is the only player available who could possibly move the LW line up that way though, and there's no telling where he'll sign

 

My thought as well....the Isles and Rangers are planning a run at him...no way i just let them have him without a fight.

 

4 minutes ago, elmatus said:

It would be nice if he signed in Philly, but he may prefer going to a team that can at least make the playoffs or something.

 

I think Philly fits that bill with Hart and Talbot in the crease another year of experience for the team and 3rd line center...

 

...and if they hire his old coach....Q it could give them a leg up or at least an advantage.

 

6 minutes ago, elmatus said:

That glaring hole at 3C is something we've been forced to deal with for years now.

 

There are a few options on the market who i would kick the tires on.

 

One thing i don't want is Laughton as the 3rd line center.

 

I'm not ragging on Laughton but i think him on the 4th is a good spot for him.

 

I would like a 4th line of maybe Raffl Laughton and Aube Kubel or maybe Hatman.

 

8 minutes ago, elmatus said:

I'll be curious to see if Fletch and whoever the new coach is find someone to slot there in the off season, or if they decide to just let the current LHV crop duke it out in camp.

 

This might happen but what happens if Frost or someone else isn't ready who would you sign and plug into that hole??

[elmatus]

11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

My thought as well....the Isles and Rangers are planning a run at him...no way i just let them have him without a fight.

 

I'm with you 100%. I hope Fletch is already getting ahead of this and contacting who he needs to get the ball rolling. Not all that many teams have the money to sign him in the first place. We do. Let's give it a shot. 

 

That said, the Rangers have an awful habit of signing whoever they want to. Hopefully that doesn't happen this time, but I would feel a lot better if their name wasn't bandied about this time around. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

I think Philly fits that bill with Hart and Talbot in the crease another year of experience for the team and 3rd line center...

 

Talbot doesn't inspire confidence in me whatsoever. I hope he's willing to take a pay cut more in line with his actual ability, cause he's not worth four million. His actual playing ability is strikingly similar to Elliott in fact, and unlike Elliott, Talbot isn't going to be penciled in as a starter (which to me would mean a higher pay). I'd offer him whatever the going rate is for second string back up goalies in the NHL -- probably 2-2.5 million per year for maybe two years. If he doesn't bite, I'd move on without caring much about it. To me, his acquisition screams Homercoaster all over again. I still can't understand it on any rational level.

 

11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

...and if they hire his old coach....Q it could give them a leg up or at least an advantage.

 

Yeah, again I agree. Maybe Q does seal the deal for him. That would be fantastic. As a side note, I really hope NYR isn't looking at Q also, but I bet you they are.

 

11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

This might happen but what happens if Frost or someone else isn't ready who would you sign and plug into that hole??

 

That's a very good question.

 

I like Hayes a fair bit. I'd kick the tires on him for sure. I don't hate Nelson either. I'd probably start with those. I've liked Heinen for what I've seen from him in limited play. My guess is he'll just resign in Boston though.

 

Duchene is... aggravating. He's the kind of guy who should be a winger not a center imo. And even then, he has a history of pettiness and childishness that I'm not sure I want any part of.

 

I have mixed feelings about Jumbo. On the one hand, he's one of the most accomplished players of the last two decades and could be brought in as a veteran presence in a manner similar to how we had Jagr around some years ago. On the other hand, he's pretty much the poster boy for choking in the off season, which is certainly worrying. He's also old of course and would have to agree to something like a two year term on a reasonable salary.

 

Anyone else catch your eye? I left out W. Karlsson for obvious reasons. Also I only looked at FAs. I didn't consider any potential trades.

[darthbal]

On the Panarin and Coach Q front, I for one am not concerned with the Rangers, making a run at them; my gut is telling me that the team to watch is Florida with Talon as the GM.  They say Tallon might make a run for his old coach, and in turn Panarin would go and join Q in Florida.

 

I think that Panarin wanted to go back to Chicago to be with coach Q; but when Q was fired, Panarin decided to go the UFA route, and wait and see where Q goes. So my guess would be whoever signs coach Q, as a pretty good chance of getting Panarin as well.

 

Just my 2¢

 

As a 3C could Brian Boyle be an option say for a year maybe 2?

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, elmatus said:

His actual playing ability is strikingly similar to Elliott in fact

 

Sure not a lot better than Elliott but Talbot's value will actually being available...he has been rather healthy throughout his career that is what the Flyers need from him....being AVAILABLE to actually play 25-30 games a year which i think he will be a better backup than starter.

 

But after watching the one game Stolie started for the Oilers and then watch a parts of a few others....man the Oilers defense is terrible.

 

You want to feel good about your team and your defense??? Go watch the Oilers play....i feel sorry for JR.

 

And i feel better about hope for the Flyers. So i think Talbot will fair much better in Philly.

 

And being healthy will be a good start but i hope they also can sign him to a nice contract.

 

From what i was reading from him and his comments about being here he sounded like he wants to stay and likes the organization so maybe they can find a reasonable deal.

 

And let's face it he isn't getting a starting gig out there again...that ship has sailed so it is a take it or leave it with him.

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, elmatus said:

As a side note, I really hope NYR isn't looking at Q also, but I bet you they are.

 

Man but when you look at both clubs from top to bottom farm systems and all Hart to Giroux and Provy.

 

Rangers can't compare especially with Lundqvist's career winding down and then you look at the young goalie like Hart you can have for the next 10 years plus i know which one i would chose.

 

That combined with the familiarity with Chuck and his father i have to give the Flyers the huge edge...not being biased either.

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, elmatus said:

I like Hayes a fair bit. I'd kick the tires on him for sure.

 

I do too. I should have asked this last post but forgot...so i will here so just gauging interest....would you be open to taking Jeff Carter back to plug the 3rd line center spot??

 

Not a bad contract 5.2 mill for the next 3 years. He could even play 3rd line RW if need be.

 

Imagine a 3rd line of JVR - Frost - Carter????

 

Just asking. I would not give up much to help the Kings out they are i need of cap space.

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, darthbal said:

watch is Florida with Talon as the GM.  They say Tallon might make a run for his old coach, and in turn Panarin would go and join Q in Florida

 

Good point but fro the reports i had seen is Panarin wanted to get back into a huge hockey market it is what he didn't like about Columbus so yeah i think Florida doesn't fit that bill even though i hear what you're saying.

 

Philly fits the hot hockey market for sure so i give Philly the edge there. But if they were to land Q then yeah that may change his mind.

[elmatus]

49 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

would you be open to taking Jeff Carter back to plug the 3rd line center spot??

 

Yeah, I think I would actually. I'd worry about it seeing as Carter has an awful habit of not showing up when he feels the team isn't playing at a high level, but in many ways we need exactly what he brings to a team. He would immediately be the best potential sniper on our roster, and his ability to play up and down the line up would be invaluable imo.

 

In fact, part of me would really like to see something like Giroux / Couts / Carter. That would give G his first real sniper since Hartnell left. I'd be interested to see if they can make something work. That doesn't solve the 3C problem of course, but I'd still like to see it.

 

Giroux / Couts / Carter

Panarin / Patrick / TK

JVR / Hayes / Voracek

 

How's that for a change of the guard?

[OccamsRazor]

6 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Giroux / Couts / Carter

Panarin / Patrick / TK

JVR / Hayes / Voracek

 

How's that for a change of the guard?

 

I would be open to trying that. However i am not giving up much besides a B prospect or more would like for a draft pick instead.

 

Worse case flip flop Jake and Carter.

 

Giroux / Couts / Carter

Panarin / Patrick / TK

JVR / Hayes / Voracek

Lindblom/Laughton/NAK

Raffl

 

[elmatus]

3 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

I would be open to trying that. However i am not giving up much besides a B prospect or more would like for a draft pick instead.

 

Yeah, I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Carter. I also wouldn't want to overpay for him. He's not getting any younger, and he's on contract for another three seasons after this one. That's a hard sell. 

 

I'm not opposed to the idea in theory though. It would be nice to finally have a true sniper on the team for the first time in forever.

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Yeah, I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Carter.

 

Shouldn't be much. 

 

They have 18 guys signed already and only 8.2 mill in cap space with Tyler Toffoli, Forbort, Ladue and a backup goalie needing to be signed.

 

So they need the cap dump. So as i said maybe a draft pick or maybe a kid who needs a new deal in return should do it.

[OccamsRazor]

8 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Yeah, I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Carter.

 

So since we discussed a vet D man back to help the kids. I had asked this question to @ruxpin which i can't remember if he responded but instead of a Parakyo trade for Jake what about this to help the Kings out and the Flyers out.

 

Jeff Carter (3 X 5.2 mill) and Alex Martinez (2 X 4 mill) who has a ton of experience playing the right side.

 

for 

 

Justin Bailey and Robert Hagg or Radko Gudas

 

 

Giroux / Couts / Carter

Panarin / Patrick / TK

JVR / Hayes / Voracek

Lindblom/Laughton/NAK

Raffl

 

Ivan/Martinez

Sanheim/Myers or Gudas

Ghost/Morin or Hagg

Friedman and/or Morin

 

The blueline would depend on who you moved out Hagg or Gudas.

[elmatus]

1 minute ago, OccamsRazor said:

Jeff Carter (3 X 5.2 mill) and Alex Martinez (2 X 4 mill) who has a ton of experience playing the right side.

 

 

Seems interesting to me. I like Martinez, and like I said I think we could use a shooter like Carter for sure. It definitely creates a logjam at defence, but I'm not very attached to Gudas or Hagg anyway. They would be part of the trade imo.

 

I don't know if the Kings would do it mind you. Carter is their second highest scorer over the last number of years. They may want an overpayment of some kind for him.