The JVR Situation

[LeafSuck16]

Just read the write up on Hockey Buzz about JVR and Schenn, I know, I know, total BS and I right there with ya, but he did have some good points about G and Jagr and what JVR needs. He said JVR needed someone to teach him and guide him, like Jagr has done for G. I totally agree with him, God is that scary, but that's what JVR needs. I would like someone with more offensive skills, but I think Talbot would be great for JVR. He is a crazy hard worker and seems to come to work every night no mattert who the opponent is. This might help JVR with his work ethic on a nightly basis. He is defensive, so when JVR does his thing and sometimes gets himself out of position, Talbot can bail him out, hopefully. Is not afaid of the corners and will use the body. JVR is not a finesse player like G, he needs speed and to use his body, so he might need someone like Talbot. Not sure if they have played with each other yet this year. Who else would be a good fit? Hate to say it, but Richie may have be the perfect fit for him.

[doom88]

Talbot cannot teach JVR to be a power forward. I don't think anyone can take Hartnell seriously enough. Can Tkachuk coach?

[Irishjim]

i wouldn't mind a couple of shifts playing with jagr, he's been taking the old wise man approach this season

[Vincent05]

@doom88

Forget Tkachuk, we have LeClair. Would be nice if JVR can be half of what Johnny was. I would hate to trade JVR for Schenn but hope Homer fleece Burke if that does happen.

[brelic]

I think we're missing the point. It's not really a matter of whether or not JVR will amount to anything. If we don't believe he will, then the likelihood is that GMs won't either. They have professionals who scout players day in and day out.

It's more about dealing from a position of strength (forwards) to address a weakness (defense).

I'm pretty sure if we go after Suter or Weber, Homer will a) overpay, and B) give him a lifetime contract. Neither of those scenarios are really good for the Flyers. So, instead of JVR, it might be JVR, Carle, and two 1sts. To me, that mortgages our future much more than JVR for Schenn+.

The Flyers already screwed themselves by making it publicly known that Weber/Suter are their prime targets. I'm sure they will be for other teams too, and Poile could easily get us to overpay.

In any case, Homer could deal JVR for Schenn+ and *still* end up with Suter in UFA, letting Carle go, and maybe shedding another defensive contract.

Trade and sign will cost us good roster players, picks, and a high-priced contract (because of Suter's leverage). UFA will only cost us a high-priced contract.

But I'm not a GM, so...

[LeafSuck16]

Your right maybe Talbot cannot teach him to be a powerforward, but he can teach him to do work every night regardless. I think that is just what JVR needs is someone to teach him how to work hard every night. As for showing their cards, I agree, why show your cards and say we want Weber or Suter? Doesn't make sense. But then again who doesn't want Weber or Suter?

[Navyhockey]

@brelic

I can't see a way where Homer goes JVR, Carle, plue 2 1st round picks for Suter or Weber. What would they want with Carle, they will be too focused on paying for JVRs contract plus trying to sign whoever isn't traded between Suter/Weber. They won't have to still go in trying to negotiate with 2 defensemen. I can see JVR, Schenn plus picks for Suter or Weber. I'm on the fence with JVR, which I really shouldn't be since he's so young, but we will need that franchise D because Pronger is probably done and Timmonen is getting up there in years, although he's having a hell of a season.

[JackStraw]

If I was Lavi, I'd sit Jagr until his groin/hamstring/whatever is fully healed and I'd put JVR with Giroux and Hartnell.

[brelic]

@brelic

I can't see a way where Homer goes JVR, Carle, plue 2 1st round picks for Suter or Weber. What would they want with Carle, they will be too focused on paying for JVRs contract plus trying to sign whoever isn't traded between Suter/Weber. They won't have to still go in trying to negotiate with 2 defensemen. I can see JVR, Schenn plus picks for Suter or Weber. I'm on the fence with JVR, which I really shouldn't be since he's so young, but we will need that franchise D because Pronger is probably done and Timmonen is getting up there in years, although he's having a hell of a season.

Maybe not, but if you're Poile, why wouldn't you make the price really really high? He doesn't have to trade anyone, and if he trades either one, he will have problems signing the other. Both want to stay there provided they show a commitment to winning, and trading one of them away really weakens their back end.

The way some of our rookies are playing, plus the players we acquired in the Carter/Richards trades kinda makes JVR a little more expendable.

[Navyhockey]

Maybe not, but if you're Poile, why wouldn't you make the price really really high? He doesn't have to trade anyone, and if he trades either one, he will have problems signing the other. Both want to stay there provided they show a commitment to winning, and trading one of them away really weakens their back end.

The way some of our rookies are playing, plus the players we acquired in the Carter/Richards trades kinda makes JVR a little more expendable.

Polie has to be careful to not overplay his hand. Keeping both really isn't an option for that team. At least one of them won't be able to be resigned, if not both. Get what you can for at least one of them now.

[aziz]

why show your cards and say we want Weber or Suter? Doesn't make sense. But then again who doesn't want Weber or Suter?

exactly. this idea of holmgren weakening his position by saying he'd like one of those two is silly, imo. every team in the league wants one of those two. the question is who can present a package the Preds find acceptable. the flyers are not in a need-to-have situation, or even a need-to-trade situation. holmgren calls poile and says, "hey, you and i both know one of those two guys, maybe both, walk away as of july 1 if you don't move one. you have no choice but to do *something*. i think X, Y, and 2 Z's are a fair price. i can sit pat, if it comes down to that; you can't. so you tell me. deal or not?"

it's not like the flyers are collapsing without a pillar on defense. 15-7-2 since pronger was shut down. that's not bad, and will get them comfortably into the playoffs if nothing happens. the predators, on the other hand, lose out pretty bigtime if they can't handle this situation by july 1. having those two guys on hand obviously puts them in a strong spot, but they can't say no forever, holmgren can. he may not want to, but he doesn't have to bend over and take it if talks don't go to his liking.

[LeafSuck16]

Aziz, totally agree, the squad is playing ok, not cup contender great, but good, why blow up the squad when they are producing pretty good numbers ans showing they could be something great in the future. They will make playoffs no problem, might win a series maybe not, but in years to come they are looking really good with all the young kids stepping in. Besides, if they do make a move for Weber/Suter and we are sitting in a decent position why not wait?

[doom88]

aziz, I agree. Homer should gently strong arm the Preds into trading one to Philly. Worst case, Homer can wait until July 1 to make an offer without losing assets in the process.

[Vanflyer]

At least one of them won't be able to be resigned, if not both. Get what you can for at least one of them now.

You know, I am not convinced of this. Particularly as Nashville sits in 6th seed in the west right now. Playoffs revenue really has a significant impact on the bottom line of a shoe string franchise like Nashville. I though also I read somewhere that the owners sold minority shares to a single person that has significant pockets that could help out with some of their financial problems.

When you look at it, nashvilles cap hit is 31M for next year. They ran this year at 50M. So, that is 19M. Here is what they need to sign:

1) LW Sergie Kostitsyn (RFA)- He has certainly taken a step back this year after having a breakout year last year with the Preds. I dont see him getting much if any in the way of a raise. He currently makes 2.5M.

2) C Colin Wilson (RFA)- He is having a decent year and is due for a raise. I am going to guess 2.5M to 2.75M.

3) RW Jordin Tootoo (UFA)- 3rd line winger. Home grown. Making 1.25m. Not sure if they re-up him. At a minimum, you have ear tag 1.25m - 1.5 for a resign or replacement.

4) RW Brian McGratton (UFA)- Enforcer. Makes 600k this year. Re-up or replace. 600k - 800k.

5) D Francis Bouilon (UFA)- 5/6 dman. Makes 1.35 million. Getting long on the tooth. With the kids in the wing, I think he doesnt get resigned.

6) D Jack Hillen (RFA)- 5/6 dman. Makes 650K now. Maybe a raise. Lets say 800k.

7) G Anders Lindback- Back up. With Rinne solid in the #1, don't see Anders getting more than the 875K he is making now.

I don't know how the Preds do it, but they are stocked with 3 bluechip d guys- all of which have played for them this year and a couple with big minutes. So, next year I will guess there d looks something like this:

Ryan Ellis

Josi Roman

Jonathan Blum

Kevin Klein

Jack Hillen

*Ryan Suter

*Shea Weber

The replacement of the players above (with exception of Bouilon) will be approx 9.2M. With their current signed players, that takes their cap to 40.7m. So, the million dollar question is going to be if the Preds want to increase their payroll by 4m to keep BOTH Suter (I am guessing him at 6M) and Weber (I am guessing him at 8m).

This is where the playoffs come into it. If they keep both, they are a sure thing to compete for the playoffs every year. Especially with the emergence of their young d-men blue chippers.

The question is whether or not that Nashville feels they need to have a bit more offensive fire power and that is worth parting ways with either Suter or Weber to attain it. Nashville is 10th overall in the standings and 12th in the league in offense. Their d-kids are only going to get better (one is playing 17 minutes a night and the other 20 minutes a night).

[doom88]

Good points, but I hope you're wrong. I want Weber in O&B.