PK for Jake?

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

I would trade Ghost plus for Trouba but if the plus is the 11th overall, then something else has to be coming back.

 

My sense is that the Jets well package Trouba with a contract they want to get rid of because they have cap issues. They did this to get rid of Mason's contract. And it's just a Chevy thing to do.

 

So you think Trouba is clearly a better player than Ghost even though one has a better overall team and goalie who before Hart is better than what the Flyers have a Trouba will be just as good without Josh?

 

I think Trouba will want a 8+ mill per deal for at least 5 or 6.

 

And yes I could see them packaging him to move a contract.

[Podein25]

1 minute ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

So you think Trouba is clearly a better player than Ghost even though one has a better overall team and goalie who before Hart is better than what the Flyers have a Trouba will be just as good without Josh?

 

I think Trouba will want a 8+ mill per deal for at least 5 or 6.

 

And yes I could see them packaging him to move a contract.

 

They are different players. As discussed, Trouba is bigger and plays a pretty physical game. A more complete Dman.

 

And remember he was good before he ever played with Morrissey. 

 

And yeah. He wants north of $8M.

[OccamsRazor]

9 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

They are different players. As discussed, Trouba is bigger and plays a pretty physical game. A more complete Dman.

 

And remember he was good before he ever played with Morrissey. 

 

And yeah. He wants north of $8M.

 

So you're saying Ghost for him and a contract off their hands?

 

Who would you guess that player to be even if you have to guess?

[King Knut]

23 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Ivan would too on a better team with Hell boy in net and Josh Morrissey as a partner.

 

How good with both of them be, paired together?

 

Aren't we at all concerned about confirmation bias?  Why do we automatically think Trouba isn't worth it when most everyone outside of this board seems to think he's the bee's knees?

[OccamsRazor]

2 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

How good with both of them be, paired together?

 

Aren't we at all concerned about confirmation bias?  Why do we automatically think Trouba isn't worth it when most everyone outside of this board seems to think he's the bee's knees?

 

 

I'm always concerned offering a guy a long deal for a lot and never have seen him play in orange and black.

 

But hey if Chuck thinks he is worth it then I am good with it.

 

I remember someone up high also thought Mcdud was worth a huge deal too...don't want to get burned again.

 

From what I have found it sounds like he is worth the risk and he is trending upwards.

 

That is always good to read.

[OccamsRazor]

9 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

How good with both of them be, paired together?

 

Aren't we at all concerned about confirmation bias?  Why do we automatically think Trouba isn't worth it when most everyone outside of this board seems to think he's the bee's knees?

 

 

Well looking at their contracts it looks like it would be Perreault who is 31 with two years left at 4.1 mill who would be who they want to move.

 

So would you take that back?

[King Knut]

53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Well looking at their contracts it looks like it would be Perreault who is 31 with two years left at 4.1 mill who would be who they want to move.

 

So would you take that back?

 

Take what back?  Perrault for Ghost and the 11th overall?  HA!

 

Or Perrault and Trouba for Ghost and the 11th?  

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by King Knut

[flyer4ever]

Trouba and Kevin Hayes (resigned) for Ghost and #11. Jets need cap help. This gives it to them. Flyers get 2 very good players. The #11 pick has no guarantees historically of ever being an impact player in the NHL.

[King Knut]

1 minute ago, flyer4ever said:

Trouba and Kevin Hayes (resigned) for Ghost and #11. Jets need cap help. This gives it to them. Flyers get 2 very good players. The #11 pick has no guarantees historically of ever being an impact player in the NHL.

 

The Jets would never do this, but if they did, where do I sign?

[OccamsRazor]

45 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

Take what back?  Perrault for Ghost and the 11th overall?  HA!

 

Or Perrault and Trouba for Ghost and the 11th?  

 

 

Trouba, Perreault for Ghost and the 11th.

 

I would prefer a 2nd rounder instead of the 11th.

 

I mean they are taking back a contract and Ghost isn't skilless.

[OccamsRazor]

17 minutes ago, flyer4ever said:

Trouba and Kevin Hayes (resigned) for Ghost and #11. Jets need cap help. This gives it to them. Flyers get 2 very good players. The #11 pick has no guarantees historically of ever being an impact player in the NHL.

 

This doesn't give them cap help.

 

Trouba is a RFA and Hayes is a UFA and only his rights can be traded.

[King Knut]

10 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

This doesn't give them cap help.

 

Trouba is a RFA and Hayes is a UFA and only his rights can be traded.

 

It likely saves them $2million on Ghost over Trouba's new deal, but it doesn't make sense in that both Hayes AND Trouba are both guys they need cap space to resign (They're not that desperate though)  Unloading Trouba's potential contract to help resign Hayes would benefit them.  They don't need to save space to resign one of them.  They may not even need space to resign both.  I don't think Laine gets a Matthews, Marner or Pointe type deal after the drop off he had this year. 

 

 

12 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Trouba, Perreault for Ghost and the 11th.

 

I would prefer a 2nd rounder instead of the 11th.

 

I mean they are taking back a contract and Ghost isn't skilless.

 

If we're going to do them a favor and take back a contract, I'm not interested in the first round pick anymore.  Fletcher would pretty much just have to turn around and waive Perreault.  He's not the 2C we're looking for and the chances are good Frost could out-compete him for 3C if push came to shove.  

 

Getting Trouba isn't really worth Ghost, a first rounder AND not being able to afford a Panarin or someone like that. 

 

I'm not that concerned about the first rounder THIS year just because we've had so many middle first round picks in the last few seasons.  It increases our odds of one of them working out to be sure, but unless this draft is particularly deep, I think it's an acceptable risk to take a year off from the first round.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by King Knut

[OccamsRazor]

5 minutes ago, King Knut said:

They don't need to save space to resign one of them.  They may not even need space to resign both.  I don't think Laine gets a Matthews, Marner or Pointe type deal after the drop off he had this year. 

 

Not sure they have the space to resign Hayes for at least 6mill +.

 

They have Laine, Connor and Bealieau to resign as well. And a few others.

 

So Hayes and Meyers will be left to walk.

 

7 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Fletcher would pretty much just have to turn around and waive Perreault. 

 

No that isn't going to happen. Mcdud will more than likely be waived so that would be 4 mill in dead money right there.

 

Waiving Perreault would create 3 more million in dead money so I can't see them having around 7 mill in dead cap space.

 

If they did the Perreault move it would be with intentions to help in the bottom 6 and they could move someone else out because no he is not the 2nd line center they need.

 

Unless they were to just take another contract on instead of Perreault.

 

You know who I am referring to right?

 

Hint: He's been in Philly rumors for years....

 

 

[King Knut]

6 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Not sure they have the space to resign Hayes for at least 6mill +.

 

They have Laine, Connor and Bealieau to resign as well. And a few others.

 

So Hayes and Meyers will be left to walk.

 

 

No that isn't going to happen. Mcdud will more than likely be waived so that would be 4 mill in dead money right there.

 

Waiving Perreault would create 3 more million in dead money so I can't see them having around 7 mill in dead cap space.

 

If they did the Perreault move it would be with intentions to help in the bottom 6 and they could move someone else out because no he is not the 2nd line center they need.

 

Unless they were to just take another contract on instead of Perreault.

 

You know who I am referring to right?

 

Hint: He's been in Philly rumors for years....

 

 

 

Yeah, I know who he is.  Things will be pretty awkward between him and Gudas I'd suspect.  

 

I don't see them having too much trouble signing those three plus either Myers, Trouba or Hayes for the 26+million they should have available.  Conner and Laine shouldn't get more than $14-15 between them (using Pastrnak and Nylander as measuring sticks)  and that's generous IMHO.  

 

If the Flyers did make a deal that brings in Perreault, they might just buy out MacDonald at this point and waive Perreault.  Waiving either buys you at least a million in cap space and I'd have to assume Perreault has the better chance of being claimed and saving all his money.  If he does clears you can use him as your 13th man.  It's not that he's not good.  He's a decent player, I'd just rather have Laughton, Raffl and Hartman and not just because they all cost less. 

 

Buying out MacDonald this summer saves you about 3.7 million or something.  That more or less pays for Perrault's cap hit doesn't it?

 

 

Still, like I said... if we're doing them a favor, I'm not interested in sending the first.  

 

 

[CoachX]

On 5/24/2019 at 7:10 AM, OccamsRazor said:

 

Is he just a little better??

 

I'm asking because i have seen many claimed (the other day on NHL network's noon show their talking heads) that guys like him don't become available and teams should jump to inquire about him and then in their defense they say he is coming off a 50 point season.

 

I hear that and i'm like wait a minute he is just 25 and JUST scored 50 points finally??? Why is that such a big deal??

 

Ghost put up 65 when he was 25 and i have seen many want to trade him just because he has struggled a little on a struggling team.

 

Trouba is much bigger like 6-3. So i was trying to figure out why this guy is so good and our guy needs to go.

 

It seems like some value the grass on the other side of the fence more.

 

And i agree Ghost is on a good deal and who knows may rebound with this new staff and a more confident team around him.

 

Before this past year Trouba's best season was 33 points. Ghost just put up more than that on a "down year".

 

It just doesn't make sense on why some just want to give Ghost away.

 

Hak and the gang it seems to me have neutered him and what he use to be by trying to change him. 

 

Just comparing the stats:

 

Trouba 408 games 42 goals 137 assist 179 points +37 

 

Ghost 298 games 46 goals 141 assists 187 points -25

 

So besides the +/- Ghost has the better stats. So it seems if the Jets were to move Ghost for Trouba the Flyers should be getting the 1st round pick back. 

 

I am one of the few who want to hold onto Ghost to see what can be from him.

If they trade Ghost, that will be just another example of this team's ineptitude. They spend years filling a farm system with quality D-men, then ship one off because he has a down year? Thats just stupid unless you are getting  bonafide equal value.

 

If they trafe him, they will regret it for years. But hey, haven't we all heard that song for years?

[ruxpin]

On 5/24/2019 at 9:35 AM, King Knut said:

 

I really hate to say it because I love Ghost to pieces and I think playing under Hakstol has possibly ruined him... BUT...

 

as as I said maybe two years ago or more now, if they’re not gonna let Ghost be Ghost, then you might as well trade him and get some value.  

 

With the emergence of Sanheim and the positivity that Philadelphia Myers looks to be headed towards, AND Morin still potentially as the 7th, if consider this. 

 

Is Trouba THAT good? I don’t know, but he seems like he might be. 

 

I worry in part because Ghost could be key to the new PP as he was when the PP was elite in his first seasons.  But it looks like Sanheim could be very good there too.  

 

Trouba is playing Provo type minutes.  And he gets a lot of assists, not goals... which between Provo, Sanheim, Myers and Gudas I think we have enough shooting D men. 

 

Trouba also shoots right, which (if Morin stays on track this year) could make 2020 UFA Gudas more expendable (he had a great season and may never be more valuable). 

 

Honestly, it’s the 11th that gives me pause.  

 

I don’t know enough about how deep this year’s Draft is, but Trouba’s a true first pairing D man who’s 25 and literally just coming into his game.  Putting him and Provo out there together could be ridiculous.  

 

 

 

I think this post sums up my thoughts on it.    The highlights of what makes Trouba attractive to me vs. Ghost is the right-handed shot to pair with Provorov. This enable Sanheim to go back to his natural side on the 2nd pair.  And, frankly, while Ghost may or may not have more offensive ability (I'd argue he does), Trouba makes up  for it by actually playing defense.   Ghost couldn't defend his sister against an attack from a tree.

 

When he's on, I love watching Ghost skate, though.  When he was on, he was electric on the 3v3 in overtime.  You don't necessarily keep someone for that, but man, it was fun to watch.   

 

I'm just not sure I throw in an 11th OAP, though.  I mean, this is a team that is going to have some cap issues and is getting someone who, if turned around, could be very good for them (at least on offense).   LOL  Think about who Ghost could be out with on 3v3 or even on the point on the power play in Winnipeg.    So, I'm not sure the 11th isn't overkill unless there really is some kind of bidding war for Trouba--which is possible.  

 

I think I try to avoid including #11 in this, but I probably do it.

 

--

 

As an aside:   There is no way I'm involved in bidding for EK. Love the guy, but he is not what the Flyers need.   I'm not spending that kind of money and term on something I don't need that only necessitates other moves and makes signing what I actually do need more prohibitive.    It's a shiny.  It's Forsberg and VLC all over again (for the last half of it, anyway), and I have no interest.  The last 7-8 years of that deal will have this board hating the guy and praying for another compliance buyout-generating lockout.

[ruxpin]

On 5/24/2019 at 11:38 AM, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Well looking at their contracts it looks like it would be Perreault who is 31 with two years left at 4.1 mill who would be who they want to move.

 

So would you take that back?

 

I wouldn't be excited about Perreault, but I would do this.  The problem for me is that while he's a center, he doesn't check off the 2C box for me.  Maybe he could slide to wing or something but he's not ideal.  He's also not horrible.   I might do this.

 

I'm very much on board with Trouba, though I'm hoping he's not the attitude problem that I'm fearful he might be.

[ruxpin]

32 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Thats just stupid unless you are getting  bonafide equal value.

 

I think they are and then some in a Trouba deal.

 

But to the rest of your point I agree.  You just don't go willy-nilly dangling Ghost for whatever you can get out of him just because he had a bad year and struggled with bad messaging and then changing messaging.    My fear about Ghost is that it really can justifiably be in his head that the front office is no longer behind him.   I mean, he can dig in and overcome that, but it does present a significant challenge for him if that's the case.

 

But in the Trouba/Ghost thing, I think they're getting bona fide equal value.  It's the 11th that I think is unnecessary.  

[CoachX]

3 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 

I think they are and then some in a Trouba deal.

 

But to the rest of your point I agree.  You just don't go willy-nilly dangling Ghost for whatever you can get out of him just because he had a bad year and struggled with bad messaging and then changing messaging.    My fear about Ghost is that it really can justifiably be in his head that the front office is no longer behind him.   I mean, he can dig in and overcome that, but it does present a significant challenge for him if that's the case.

 

But in the Trouba/Ghost thing, I think they're getting bona fide equal value.  It's the 11th that I think is unnecessary.  

I agree. Trade a potential star to get a star, and try to walk away with the better deal to fit your teams needs

 

I personally think ghost will rebound and the Flyers will regret moving him

[brelic]

17 minutes ago, CoachX said:

I personally think ghost will rebound and the Flyers will regret moving him

 

Of course you do, as would any GM willing to trade for him. That's what gives him value... otherwise, you wouldn't get Trouba for him.

 

ANd it's also possible for Ghost to rebound and not regret moving him. If they move him, it's because they believe they need something different on this team, and something that will bring them more benefit - it's not necessarily a statement on Ghost. 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

 

I wouldn't be excited about Perreault, but I would do this.  The problem for me is that while he's a center, he doesn't check off the 2C box for me.  Maybe he could slide to wing or something but he's not ideal.  He's also not horrible.   I might do this.

 

I'm very much on board with Trouba, though I'm hoping he's not the attitude problem that I'm fearful he might be.

 

Yeah Perreault maybe you could flip because I'm think Raffl might end up the 13th forward already.

 

So maybe ship him to a team who needs to get to the floor...I'm thinking Arizona maybe.

 

So it seems from what I have gathered that Trouba would be an upgrade and could slot into the top pair. I hope others are right and what it's going to cost to sign him to a new deal.

 

So...

 

Provorov - Trouba

Sanheim - Myers

Morin - Gudas

Hagg

 

Is that what will go down?

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, CoachX said:

I agree. Trade a potential star to get a star, and try to walk away with the better deal to fit your teams needs

 

I personally think ghost will rebound and the Flyers will regret moving him

 

I get what you're saying and to commit to a new 6 or 7 year deal for Trouba and he has never even skated a minute in the orange and black is very risky....

[AJgoal]

2 hours ago, ruxpin said:

 

I think this post sums up my thoughts on it.    The highlights of what makes Trouba attractive to me vs. Ghost is the right-handed shot to pair with Provorov. This enable Sanheim to go back to his natural side on the 2nd pair.  And, frankly, while Ghost may or may not have more offensive ability (I'd argue he does), Trouba makes up  for it by actually playing defense.   Ghost couldn't defend his sister against an attack from a tree.

 

I see this all the time. It's simply not true.  D-men with 1000+ minutes (124 defensemen, rank, 1=best)

 

Gostisbehere

Shot attempts against/60: 56.37 (58th)

Shots against/60: 30.53 (57th)

Goals against/60: 2.94 (106th)

Scoring Chances against/60: 25.73 (50th)

High danger corsi against/60: 10.1 (35th)

Expected goals against/60: 2.23 (43rd)

On ice save %: 90.37 (114th)

 

Trouba

Shot attempts against/60: 58.9 (85th)

Shots against/60: 32.88 (100th)

Goals against/60: 2.84 (101st)

Scoring Chances against/60: 26.1 (55th)

High danger corsi against/60: 10.88 (60th)

Expected goals against/60: 2.43 (85th)

On ice save %: 91.35 (89th)

 

Ghost ranks higher than Trouba on every defensive metric, with the exception of goals against. He suffers in this regard from one of the worst on-ice goalie performances. While quality of competition (and conversely, quality of teammate) will have some effect on these numbers, in most cases Gostisbehere ranks significantly higher. That's not all QOC.

 

EDIT: Allow me to add that Gostisbehere played 500 minutes with either MacDonald, Hagg, or Folin. half that with Provorov. Trouba played over 900 minutes with Morrissey.

Edited May 31, 2019 by AJgoal

[OccamsRazor]

On 5/24/2019 at 11:12 AM, OccamsRazor said:

 

So you think Trouba is clearly a better player than Ghost even though one has a better overall team and goalie who before Hart is better than what the Flyers have, a can Trouba will be just as good without Josh?

 

I think Trouba will want a 8+ mill per deal for at least 5 or 6.

 

And yes I could see them packaging him to move a contract.

 

And this is what I eluded to is he plays with a good defenseman as my Josh reference.

 

It is why I was asking because I don't watch a lot of Jets games.

 

As @AJgoal@Aj pointed because I don't do the corsi numbers so well it looks as if it's a myth that Trouba is better.

 

I don't know I really don't want to give up on Ghost and especially with his good contract and a possibility of a rebound for him and turn around and sign a guy to a 7 year 8 mill per deal.

 

No need for Mcdud part 2.

 

If he is so good why would the Jets move him?

Edited May 31, 2019 by OccamsRazor

[AJgoal]

Just now, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

If he is so good why would the Jets move him?

 

Simple answer is that he wants out of Winnipeg. Guaranteed they would want to keep him if they could. But he's signed several one-year deals trying to force his way out. He wants to play in the States. Winnipeg looking to move Trouba, in this particular case, is not a reason in and of itself to beware of getting him. From what I understand, at least part of it has to do with difficulties his fiancee is having with getting into med school in Canada as a non-citizen. But there are bits about his attitude that do make me wonder (ice time demands, etc).