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CoachX

Interesting perspective on GM moves

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Clipped this from a Meltzer article. 

 

Quick Hits: June 20, 2019


3) In terms of short-term salary cap considerations (i.e., specific to planning for 2019-20), here is how the Flyers' current offseason cap picture compares to last year's at the end of the preseason:

* The combined $7.05 million in cap space that went last year to Jori Lehterä ($4.7 million) and Dale Weise ($2.35 million) have essentially be reallocated to Hayes, plus an additional $90K on his $7.14 million cap hit. While this does not take into account the long-term cap planning aspect of having signed Hayes to a seven-year deal, it's unquestionably a much better immediate-term use of similar amounts of cap space from last season to next. 

* The two-thirds salary cap relief the Flyers received for 2019-20 via the buyout of the final season of Andrew MacDonald's contract cancels out the added cap obligations for next season that came about via the Radko Gudas-for-Matt Niskanen trade; both in terms of the salary differential between Niskanen and Gudas as well as the roughly one-third of Gudas' 2019-20 salary. Essentially, the Flyers neither gained or lost any significant cap space for next season. For 2020-21, when the Gudas retention is off the books, the cap penalty for the MacDonald buyout will be largely but not completely offset.

* The Flyers took on a $3.8 million cap obligation for 2019-20 via the acquisition of veteran defenseman Justin Braun (a potential unrestricted free agent next summer). However, goaltender Michal Neuvirth's $2.5 million cap hit will come off the books this summer and the Flyers also have impending UFA goaltenders Brian Elliott ($2.75 million) and Cam Talbot ($4.17 million). A portion of the goalies' 2018-19 salaries will be replaced on the Flyers' cap by a trade acquisition or free agent signing. A $3.8 million portion of the combined $9.42 cap hits (prorated, in Talbot's case) for the three goaltenders will offset the cap cost of the Braun acquisition. The remainder, whatever it will be, is available for other purposes. The Flyers also have a $2.1 million obligation to veteran defenseman David Schlemko (acquired in the Weise trade with Montreal) for next season; of which, roughly half can be buried in the AHL if he clears waivers and is assigned to the Phantoms.

* Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher said over the weekend -- and reiterated on Wednesday -- that much of the team's still-open cap space would be used in resigning the team's five primary restricted free agents (Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton and Ryan Hartman). The GM said that he plans to meet with the respective players' agents in Vancouver over Draft weekend to get the ball rolling on negotiations but that nothing is imminent with any of the players

 

 

i know many are panicking, but I get good vibes from this management 

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5 minutes ago, CoachX said:

i know many are panicking, but I get good vibes from this management 

 

 

REPORTED!!!!!!

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6 minutes ago, CoachX said:

i know many are panicking, but I get good vibes from this management 

 

There is an ocean of feelings in between these two.

 

One of them is called skepticism. Skepticism informed by past experience. 

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1 hour ago, CoachX said:

Clipped this from a Meltzer article. 

 

Quick Hits: June 20, 2019


3) In terms of short-term salary cap considerations (i.e., specific to planning for 2019-20), here is how the Flyers' current offseason cap picture compares to last year's at the end of the preseason:

* The combined $7.05 million in cap space that went last year to Jori Lehterä ($4.7 million) and Dale Weise ($2.35 million) have essentially be reallocated to Hayes, plus an additional $90K on his $7.14 million cap hit. While this does not take into account the long-term cap planning aspect of having signed Hayes to a seven-year deal, it's unquestionably a much better immediate-term use of similar amounts of cap space from last season to next. 

* The two-thirds salary cap relief the Flyers received for 2019-20 via the buyout of the final season of Andrew MacDonald's contract cancels out the added cap obligations for next season that came about via the Radko Gudas-for-Matt Niskanen trade; both in terms of the salary differential between Niskanen and Gudas as well as the roughly one-third of Gudas' 2019-20 salary. Essentially, the Flyers neither gained or lost any significant cap space for next season. For 2020-21, when the Gudas retention is off the books, the cap penalty for the MacDonald buyout will be largely but not completely offset.

* The Flyers took on a $3.8 million cap obligation for 2019-20 via the acquisition of veteran defenseman Justin Braun (a potential unrestricted free agent next summer). However, goaltender Michal Neuvirth's $2.5 million cap hit will come off the books this summer and the Flyers also have impending UFA goaltenders Brian Elliott ($2.75 million) and Cam Talbot ($4.17 million). A portion of the goalies' 2018-19 salaries will be replaced on the Flyers' cap by a trade acquisition or free agent signing. A $3.8 million portion of the combined $9.42 cap hits (prorated, in Talbot's case) for the three goaltenders will offset the cap cost of the Braun acquisition. The remainder, whatever it will be, is available for other purposes. The Flyers also have a $2.1 million obligation to veteran defenseman David Schlemko (acquired in the Weise trade with Montreal) for next season; of which, roughly half can be buried in the AHL if he clears waivers and is assigned to the Phantoms.

* Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher said over the weekend -- and reiterated on Wednesday -- that much of the team's still-open cap space would be used in resigning the team's five primary restricted free agents (Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton and Ryan Hartman). The GM said that he plans to meet with the respective players' agents in Vancouver over Draft weekend to get the ball rolling on negotiations but that nothing is imminent with any of the players

 

 

i know many are panicking, but I get good vibes from this management 

 

He makes some loose use of those numbers. For example, while he mentions Schlemko later on, he neglects to bring up that the Weise money is already essentially eaten up by Schlemko, so his calculation there is off. And the long term cap planning aspect is what is worrying thise of us that have concerns.

 

Bill is also directly employed by the Flyers, so he will tend to paint everything in the most favorable light. I take him with a grain of salt anymore.

 

I'm not panicking, but I am also not a big fan of all three of these moves together. Two would probably be ok. 

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1 minute ago, AJgoal said:

 

He makes some loose use of those numbers. For example, while he mentions Schlemko later on, he neglects to bring up that the Weise money is already essentially eaten up by Schlemko, so his calculation there is off. And the long term cap planning aspect is what is worrying thise of us that have concerns.

 

Bill is also directly employed by the Flyers, so he will tend to paint everything in the most favorable light. I take him with a grain of salt anymore.

 

I'm not panicking, but I am also not a big fan of all three of these moves together. Two would probably be ok. 

Yeah i get all that. But his ponts still have value. As of today, the GM has managed to improve the team and make some moves that cut dead weight, without it being detrimental. 

 

A few years ago we were probably complaining how to get rid of contracts and dead weight. So here is an example.

 

The future can be worried about then. Right now the team needs to become competitive and cohesive. They are building a strong defense and the only key player gone is Gudas. 

 

Like I said before, we are all worried more about how bad Hayes is gonna suck, instead of how good he might play 

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46 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Like I said before, we are all worried more about how bad Hayes is gonna suck, instead of how good he might play 

 

To be more accurate, the concern about Hayes has little to do with his on ice play - he makes the team better on the ice immediately, I don't think anybody debates that. The debate is about the money and the term and the downstream implications of that for team on the ice (e.g., losing a Sanheim to Seattle because Hayes has to be protected due to NMC).  

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5 minutes ago, elmatus said:

We're filled to the gills

 

I knew it: we're all just halibut pretending to be human!

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47 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Personally I'm torn on the moves

 

It's all you had to say ( to save you all that pecking on the keyboard) anything more is just an opinion....no more no less than anyone else's anywhere else.

 

At the end of the day the results is all that matters.

 

Here's to it finally all being the right moves!

 

Cheers!

 

Let's go Flyers!

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3 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

I feel like this forum would be pretty boring if all we ever wrote were one line replies. Personally, I come here to read and write rather more thoughtful posts.

 

Nah we could fit more bitching in....

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4 minutes ago, elmatus said:

I come here to read and write rather more thoughtful posts.

 

REPORTED!!!

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I come here for the halibut jokes and the sheep memes.

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1 hour ago, elmatus said:

 

I feel like this forum would be pretty boring if all we ever wrote were one line replies. Personally, I come here to read and write rather more thoughtful posts.

 

And just so ya know i was just joking around...it is good to have the discussions and difference of opinions if we all agreed all the time it would be boring like @radoran and @ruxpin conversations with himself all the time...

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, elmatus said:

 

 

Edited by CoachX

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5 hours ago, elmatus said:

 

I understand this is your opinion, but that doesn't make it objectively true. Some of us have a different position, and it is just as valid an option under the circumstances. It's all a question of projection at this point. Is the value Fletch brought in worthwhile when compared to what he has spent? I tend to not be a big fan of projections. I like measured estimates a lot better, and I try to rely on things like recent history and context. Given that, here's where I stand:

 

Has Fletch improved the team? Well, let's look at what he's done.

 

1) He hired a whole slew of new coaches and has added a ton of experience behind the bench. 

 

Hex should have done this last off season. It's really that simple. The fact he didn't was baffling to virtually everyone paying attention. Hakstol was never an NHL-level coach. I remember defending him for the first couple years. I figured we needed to give him time to adjust. I liked that Hexy had gone off the grid to get a guy who wasn't just another NHL HC reject. Unfortunately, he did not pan out. Fletch fixed this problem in spades by bringing in three former HCs with a massive amount of combined NHL experience.

 

My personal rank on this: A+

 

2) He brought up Hart and allowed Gordon to play him for half of last season. 

 

I credit Fletch for this. Hexy was notorious for not wanting to bring up the kids until they were ripe (some would say overripe at times). Fletch came in and decided he wasn't going to sit on his hands with a potential stud goalie in the minors, and he brought him up. That was a great decision, and now we're going to have a goalie who is very likely to have ups and downs, but who has tremendous potential right from the first puck drop.

 

My personal rank on this: A

 

3) Gudas for Niskanen.

 

Gudas was better than folks often gave him credit for, but he was far from an elite-level guy. Moving him is fine if we can get a decent return. Niskanen is a solid dman. Judging by his stats, he should be good for 20 or so pts next season. That would be about in line with his typical production over the last bit.

 

He's ostensibly being brought in to act as a mentor for our younger corps, which I think is a decent idea. Sure, Fletch probably didn't need to retain salary like he did, but I don't care much about that. Niskanen's contract isn't long, so it's not like we're stuck with him as he enters the back nine. Part of me worries he'll be leaned on more than he should given AV's tendency to ride vets over more skilled younger players, but maybe not. 

 

My personal rank on this: B

 

4) He got a rental in Braun for a 2nd and 3rd rd pick.

 

I've mentioned here that I don't know Braun well. I have been reading up on him a fair bit since the trade, and to be honest I don't much like what I've read, but I'm willing to suspend my judgment here in Fletch's favour. Let's take him at face value. The consensus on his game is that he is basically a defensive dman. There is no offense to be found here. That's not something I care too much about. We're filled to the gills with young dmen who can score (Ghost, Sanheim, Provo, Myers). I have no problem bringing in a guy who's only job is a shut down one, assuming he does it well enough.

 

How good is he? Well, the internet doesn't seem to like him much, but what do they know? People like to complain (*snicker*). Let's say he ends up being reasonable in the role he's given. He shores up the PK (something we desperately need) and allows someone like Ghost to not have to worry about defending, just join rushes and create offense from the back the way we know he can. All of this is a solid positive if it happens. 

 

The problem is this guy is essentially a rental. That would be fine if this team were a rental away from contention, or if the rental in question was a very high caliber player and we were hoping to somehow convince him to stay around, but Braun doesn't really seem to be either of these things. He appears to be a one and done guy brought in to shore up defensive duties for the 2019-20 season. Given that this team has been a bubble team now for years, it seems rationally implausible to me that they'd suddenly become contenders. So while he may (or not) make this team somewhat better for next season, his value is pretty limited.

 

My rank: C (C- if Braun turns out to just be the new McDud on ice)

 

5) He bought out McDud.

 

Yep. Absolutely he did. Any GM in their right mind would have done this though. I don't credit Fletch for this. It's exactly what needed to happen, but he's not the reason it did. He just happened to be in that position at this time. 

 

My rank: N/A

 

6) He signed Hayes to a 7x7 contract with NM protection from Seattle and 12T protection for the duration afterwards.

 

I don't hate Hayes. Given what was available, I think he was probably the best we were going to get without trading someone. Personally, I would have been calling Vegas and TB to inquire about W. Karlsson and Point before making any decision, but let's say Fletch did that and nothing could be done. So he gets Hayes, arguably the second best UFA prospect available. I should note I actually advocated that he do exactly this earlier this year. I figured Duchene would want way too much money for what he brings, and that Hayes would stand to be much more reasonable in his demands. I still think Duchene will want way to much money, but now I see that I was very wrong on the second point.

 

Hayes is probably reasonably worth something like 5.5M for five years. Given how UFAs always get paid too much, 6-6.5M seems okay for maybe five years or so. Judging by prior stats, he should be a 40-50 pt guy depending on usage. That's fine for a temporary 2C while we wait to see if Patrick or Frost can live up to the hype. He's apparently pretty good defensively, which is great. We need PK support.

 

7M for seven years is Fletch getting reamed up the back side. Adding Seattle protection and a partial NTC above and beyond all that is Homer-level bad (just about the worst on the scale for me and I would assume many many others, probably even you!). That to me is the kicker. At that amount of money and term, Fletch should have walked away and looked elsewhere, but he did not.

 

Do I think Hayes is a reasonable add? Yep. Does he make this team better for next year? Yep. Is he worth what Fletch paid? Not a chance. Fletch should have found an option B. He should have dangled Ghost for a 2C. Someone would surely have gone for it.

 

My rank: D- (I know there generally aren't any D-, but I gave one anyway. It would be a flat F if it wasn't that we needed a 2C more than anything this off season)

 

So where does that leave us? Well, I do think the team will be better in 2019-20. Mostly I believe this because we no longer have a useless coaching staff and we finally have a goalie. Fletch's off season acquisitions also help, but I do not think any of these guys are gamechangers by any stretch. 

 

My prediction for next season? They end up 5-6th in the east. Depending on the first round match up, they may or may not make it to round two. Note this would have been many people's prediction for the team last year too. I'm choosing to believe it will happen this year.

 

Projection long term? That Hayes contract is our new McDud, which sucks especially given we finally got rid of the last one. I was really looking forward to simply not having any terrible contracts on the books, but I guess that isn't going to happen. The best case scenario here is that the team gets an amnesty buyout after the next CBA, and we can get rid of him that way. Niskanen isn't here long term, so it's a wash really. Braun isn't either, which is great, but I actually happen to think 2nd and 3rd round picks are important.

 

My long winded point here is that: saying Fletch improved the team without it being detrimental is only one possible projection. It's entirely possible he actually has made detrimental moves. Not a single person in the world knows for sure one way or the other. All we have is projection, and those can differ. 

 

Personally I'm torn on the moves, and I think I have plenty of justification for it.

Sorry, i tapped out after your Niskanen eval. Youre a smart person with alot of passion and props to you. I just had to hit the brakes

 

I will just reply to your early points about Hakstol. You were willing to give the guy a chance and defended him. Thats all im doing with Fletch

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3 hours ago, Podein25 said:

I come here for the halibut jokes and the sheep memes.

Im over it all and will resort to pushing old ladies in wheel chairs down escalators

 

Whats a halibut? Is it contagious?

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2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

And just so ya know i was just joking around...it is good to have the discussions and difference of opinions if we all agreed all the time it would be boring like @radoran and @ruxpin conversations with himself all the time...

I personally think everyone should agree with me

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26 minutes ago, CoachX said:

I personally think everyone should agree with me

 

Me too.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Podein25 said:

The debate is about the money and the term and the downstream implications of that for team on the ice (e.g., losing a Sanheim to Seattle because Hayes has to be protected due to NMC)

Dude great thank you...like I don't have enough of a problem trying to get sleep and now I went ahead and read that ^ ..... Im screwed...

Edited by Philly29
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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, CoachX said:

The future can be worried about then. Right now the team needs to become competitive and cohesive. They are building a strong defense and the only key player gone is Gudas. 

 

Like I said before, we are all worried more about how bad Hayes is gonna suck, instead of how good he might play 

I LOVE IT! That is some positive jazz right there man.  I Pray you are right, no doubt exciting times in Flyer Land with a little slightly scared thrown in as well.

Edited by Philly29

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16 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

And just so ya know i was just joking around...it is good to have the discussions and difference of opinions if we all agreed all the time it would be boring like @radoran and @ruxpin conversations with himself all the time...

Hey! I resemble that comment! 

 

(twice!) 

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Here's the thing to remember about all these moves being made - Fletcher and Flahr just aren't making moves on their own. They're made in conjunction with input from the player personnel department and pro scouts. As for cap ramifications, you can get that the team capologist is also being used. 

 

I know that Fletcher and Flahr have a questionable history in Minnesota, but the personnel department in Minnesota is nothing like the personnel department in Philadelphia. Fact is, the Flyers have one of the best scouting and personnel departments in the league.

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23 minutes ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

the personnel department in Minnesota is nothing like the personnel department in Philadelphia

 

There's only one McCrossin!

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I'm not usually a ranter. But here we go.

 

I know some people are happy that the team will be better this season. And I won't argue that the team will be better. Even if Patrick was to break out this season, Hayes is an upgrade at 3C over Laughton. And if Patrick doesn't, he's an upgrade at 2C over Patrick.

 

While I will argue the idea that Niskanen is a clear upgrade on Gudas, he is  a clear upgrade on McDonald. And Gudas/Braun are probably a wash. 

 

But here's the thing: This team isn't winning a Cup on the backs of Kevin Hayes and Matt Niskanen. They always were, and still are, going to win a Cup (if they do) on the backs of their homegrown guys. This group has no shot now, much as it didn't before, if Patrick, Konecny, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Ghost, and Lindblom don't step up and play to their potential over the next couple of years, and if Frost and Farrabee don't come in and play big parts. If they don't, it won't matter if they have Kevin Hayes on the team, and if they do, it probably wouldn't matter if they didn't have Kevin Hayes on the team. And if it did matter, that's when they could have gone out and gotten a Kevin Hayes. Hell, they could have traded for JT Miller this offseason and it would have been a better team-building move. He's not as good as Hayes, but his cap hit and term are a much better fit. And they certainly could have provided the same value to Tampa that Vancouver did. Hayes just makes it more difficult to add a true impact guy when you can use one the most.

 

Now we get a bridge deal for Sanheim, and a trade of Hartman. Sanheim is the kind of player you bet long term on. His numbers suggest, much as Couturier's did, that he will break out in the next couple of seasons. Much like what you get with Ghost's and Couturier's contracts, a long-term deal with Sanheim in the 4.5-5 range is better for your planning and team building than setting him up to get paid in just two years (when Hart is also up). Part of this was likely done to keep his cap hit down. Which wouldn't have been necessary had Fletcher not chewed through the team's cap space last week. It's also telling that Fletcher said that Sanheim's camp and he were on the same page with regards to the contract - that says he was never really thinking of going long term with him at all. And that's troubling.

 

Hartman didn't do well last year, but he's better than Pitlick, and has upside that Pitlick doesn't have. You also had three years of control on Hartman versus a rental in Pitlick. But, it's likely you're saving money on a contract, although you could take him to arb and probably get a decent 1 year deal if you really wanted to. Again, this likely wouldn't have been necessary had you just held off on one of those moves last week. Let's not also forget the negative value that he got in that trade - he was treated exactly as he should have treated Washington and San Jose. Want cap relief? Well, I need a discount. And now you really have a hole at 3RW. Where before, worst case you could have slotted in Hartman, now you almost have to go get someone, as Pitlick is assuredly not a capable 3rd liner. NAK can get a shot, but there's no fallback now if he fails.

 

Look at the names out there. Aho. Marner. Subban... Might not it have been better for Fletcher to see how everything developed before going all in on what was available at the time? No, the team is not worse today than is was two weeks ago. But it's not leaps and bounds better, either. For all the spending, both of money and of assets, that's what I would have expected. Instead, we have a team that on paper, should be able to compete for a playoff spot. Are we really so beaten down that that makes us happy?

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      I understand this is your opinion, but that doesn't make it objectively true. Some of us have a different position, and it is just as valid an option under the circumstances. It's all a question of projection at this point. Is the value Fletch brought in worthwhile when compared to what he has spent? I tend to not be a big fan of projections. I like measured estimates a lot better, and I try to rely on things like recent history and context. Given that, here's where I stand:   Has Flet
    • 5
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      I feel like this forum would be pretty boring if all we ever wrote were one line replies. Personally, I come here to read and write rather more thoughtful posts.
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      Yeah i get all that. But his ponts still have value. As of today, the GM has managed to improve the team and make some moves that cut dead weight, without it being detrimental.    A few years ago we were probably complaining how to get rid of contracts and dead weight. So here is an example.   The future can be worried about then. Right now the team needs to become competitive and cohesive. They are building a strong defense and the only key player gone is Gudas.   
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      REPORTED!!!!!!
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      Clipped this from a Meltzer article.    Quick Hits: June 20, 20193) In terms of short-term salary cap considerations (i.e., specific to planning for 2019-20), here is how the Flyers' current offseason cap picture compares to last year's at the end of the preseason:* The combined $7.05 million in cap space that went last year to Jori Lehterä ($4.7 million) and Dale Weise ($2.35 million) have essentially be reallocated to Hayes, plus an additional $90K on his $7.14 million cap hit. While
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      There is an ocean of feelings in between these two.   One of them is called skepticism. Skepticism informed by past experience. 

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