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Seravalli: Flyers & Provorov not close


ruxpin

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14 hours ago, ruxpin said:

Not sure about Briere (I think so), but yes on Bryz.

 

Yeah, it's kind of the whole point to the "amnesty" thing. It wipes out any stupid mistake the club made regardless of how egregious.

 

The Bryz thing... I mean initially the guy was setting team records. 

 

Still Just cant believe they didn’t have some idea of how off he was or think that would cause a problem. 

 

as with most problems of that era, I don’t fault the individual move. Even with the craziness.  It was that every move to win “now” was offset by two “rebuild” moves and nothing lined up into anything remotely constructive. 

 

But yes, I think Hayes is most likely the Amnesty buyout guy.  Hopefully Frost and Farabee and Ratcliffe et all make that the irrefutable decision.  

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6 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

The Bryz thing... I mean initially the guy was setting team records. 

 

Still Just cant believe they didn’t have some idea of how off he was or think that would cause a problem. 

 

as with most problems of that era, I don’t fault the individual move. Even with the craziness.  It was that every move to win “now” was offset by two “rebuild” moves and nothing lined up into anything remotely constructive. 

 

But yes, I think Hayes is most likely the Amnesty buyout guy.  Hopefully Frost and Farabee and Ratcliffe et all make that the irrefutable decision.  

Yeah, I agree with all of that. 

 

I'm wondering if Hayes is the down roster answer for when we don't renew Giroux. Hear me out for just a second because it's admittedly ridiculous on its face. 

 

Pretend for a moment that Frost catches on.  When Giroux's contact expires  he'll be 34.  I'm just wondering what they do there. 

Coots will also expire, but he'll be 29. Good for one more contract. 

 

I think Patrick also has to develop decently, but by then you could be (in no order) Patrick, Frost, and Coots and down the middle with Hayes (maybe moving to right) or any of O'Brien, Brink, Rubtsov or someone else moving in. 

 

Just saying it's possible. Or both Giroux and Hayes leave. 

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https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=100847&blogger_id=1

 

So I'm just going to put this here. Not so much for the rumor, I don't think there is any there there, but for the comments.

Much in the same way the comments on reddit can be comic gold, so to can the comments on hockeybuzz.

A very strong entry is the thread about the word "natch", it is pretty funny. Also the newly invented "Tampa model" of asset management is mentioned.

 

So Koneckny is an offer sheet candidate because, whatever, same with Connor, whom a lot of people say is a better player than Travis ?

The fact that there is absolutely nothing happening with either of these potential franchise cornerstone players (provorov and koneckny) is a little concerning though. 

I don't hear or see diddly poo about this, at some point people will have to decide if they want to play hockey for money and the reverse of do we want to piss off a guy that could be one our 3 best players going forward ? 

Other guys contracts can't be the determining factor.

 

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On 8/8/2019 at 9:50 AM, mojo1917 said:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=100847&blogger_id=1

 

So I'm just going to put this here. Not so much for the rumor, I don't think there is any there there, but for the comments.

Much in the same way the comments on reddit can be comic gold, so to can the comments on hockeybuzz.

A very strong entry is the thread about the word "natch", it is pretty funny. Also the newly invented "Tampa model" of asset management is mentioned.

 

So Koneckny is an offer sheet candidate because, whatever, same with Connor, whom a lot of people say is a better player than Travis ?

The fact that there is absolutely nothing happening with either of these potential franchise cornerstone players (provorov and koneckny) is a little concerning though. 

I don't hear or see diddly poo about this, at some point people will have to decide if they want to play hockey for money and the reverse of do we want to piss off a guy that could be one our 3 best players going forward ? 

Other guys contracts can't be the determining factor.

 

 

I think we have to consider that it's these players  and their agents that are dragging their feet waiting for someone else to sign first. 

 

Tampa and Toronto both have moves to make before they can sign Point or Marner.  

I remain convinced that Marner isn't signing until the first day of the season to take advantage of the LTIR cap relief on Andersen.   Point is likely waiting out the Marner deal before he signs.  Either way, I'm assuming Tampa would like to free up an additional 3-4 million to sign him to the long term franchise player deal similar to what Marner is likely getting.  

 

These guys are in a different tier altogether than Werenski and Provo and McAvoy, and even though Columbus has a ton of cap space with which to sign him, they may be weighting other deals to help make up for losing Panarin and Duchene.  The real hold up to my eyes is the Bruins and McAvoy.  They don't have a ton of room, but McAvoy and Brandon Carlo are the only guys they have left to sign and McAvoy isn't offer sheet eligible,  so they're the ones sorting setting the market right now.

 

All this aside, I think Fletcher is probably still weighing options on his defense.  I don't think he'll want to start the season with 8 D-men.  

 

Long story short, I don't think the delay necessarily means anyone's grumpy or nervous about it.  Most of the teams with really big RFA's to sign this summer haven't signed their biggest RFA's yet.  

 

This said, regarding offer sheets, have the Flyers even technically made qualifying offers to Provo and TK?  I think they have to have by now, right?  I forget what the rules on that are. 

 

 

 

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35 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Tampa and Toronto both have moves to make before they can sign Point or Marner.  

I remain convinced that Marner isn't signing until the first day of the season to take advantage of the LTIR cap relief on Andersen.   Point is likely waiting out the Marner deal before he signs. 

The whole situation is a mess.  Agree that Marner/Point are holding things up for the other RFAs forwards in the same way that Werenski/McAvoy are probably holding things up for the other RFA D-men.  The problem is that Toronto is waiting to sign Marner in order to take advantage of the LTIR space.  So are we going to have to wait until then for the other RFA forwards to sign?  Really don't like that one bit.  Would suck if Konecny misses camp.

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12 minutes ago, vis said:

The whole situation is a mess.  Agree that Marner/Point are holding things up for the other RFAs forwards in the same way that Werenski/McAvoy are probably holding things up for the other RFA D-men.  The problem is that Toronto is waiting to sign Marner in order to take advantage of the LTIR space.  So are we going to have to wait until then for the other RFA forwards to sign?  Really don't like that one bit.  Would suck if Konecny misses camp.

 

I expect things to heat up as camp approaches.  No one thinks TK is on par with Point or Marner right now and those guys can likely get away with missing camp... or at least what that will cost the team will be worth it in exchange for locking them in long term.

 

Thinking about it, maybe McAvoy and Provo's agents are waiting on Werenski because they know the Jackets will likely have to pay more for him (they have cap space and no one wants to actually play in that town).  At the same time, Werenski might be waiting it out hoping for a trade or an offer sheet.  

 

Anyone want to send JVR & Ghost to Columbus for Werenski?  that's a joke.  mostly. 

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1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

I expect things to heat up as camp approaches.  No one thinks TK is on par with Point or Marner right now and those guys can likely get away with missing camp... or at least what that will cost the team will be worth it in exchange for locking them in long term.

Yeah, the dam is going to have to break for the lower tier guys like TK.  I feel like there already are some good comps out there for him.  How many more do they need?  Or maybe the holdup for TK is Provorov's deal getting done? 

 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

 

Thinking about it, maybe McAvoy and Provo's agents are waiting on Werenski because they know the Jackets will likely have to pay more for him (they have cap space and no one wants to actually play in that town).  At the same time, Werenski might be waiting it out hoping for a trade or an offer sheet.  

Yeah.  Not sure how McAvoy fits into all this.  I'm not sure the Bruins can give him a long term deal.  Though, I suppose it makes sense for him to wait to see what Werenski does because it's still a data point, even if Werenski's deal is long term.  What is holding up Werenski, though?

 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Anyone want to send JVR & Ghost to Columbus for Werenski?  that's a joke.  mostly. 

Agree Columbus would think that's a joke.

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38 minutes ago, vis said:

I feel like there already are some good comps out there for him.  How many more do they need?  Or maybe the holdup for TK is Provorov's deal getting done? 

 

They very well may need to figure out what Provorov is getting to be sure they can fit both of them.

 

As for comps to Konecny, what do you give your young star winger with two less points and five more goals than your $7.1M 27-year-old center has over the past two seasons?

 

And, sure, we can factor in how PK time and faceoffs affect that number... 😎

Edited by radoran
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29 minutes ago, vis said:

Yeah, the dam is going to have to break for the lower tier guys like TK.  I feel like there already are some good comps out there for him.  How many more do they need?  Or maybe the holdup for TK is Provorov's deal getting done? 

 

 

Yeah my guess is that McAvoy and Werenksi are the hold ups for Provo and Provo's the hold up for TK as TK A) has less negotiating power than Provo and B) might become an actionable chip if the worst goes down and they lose Provo to an offer sheet.  I really doubt anyone's going to sign provo to an offer sheet just because I think the teams that have 8+million to throw around are pretty much set. 

 

There's an outside chance Ottawa could cough up an offer sheet that Fletcher wouldn't be able to match. That's pretty much the only one I could see.   Colorado and Winnipeg could afford the offer sheet, but they have their own people to resign.  

 

29 minutes ago, vis said:

Yeah.  Not sure how McAvoy fits into all this.  I'm not sure the Bruins can give him a long term deal.  Though, I suppose it makes sense for him to wait to see what Werenski does because it's still a data point, even if Werenski's deal is long term.  What is holding up Werenski, though?

 

 

If McAvoy is looking for $8million (a number being bandied about for Provo and Werenski), Boston can't get there yet.

Regarding Werenski, like I said, maybe he just doesn't really want to play for Columbus long term (few people seem to want to for long).  They could be pushing for more years than he wants to sign or he could be hoping for an offer sheet... though as I mentioned with Provo, I'm not sure that's likely at this point.

 

29 minutes ago, vis said:

Agree Columbus would think that's a joke.

 

Agreed, but they might consider JVR and Sanheim or Myers if they can't put together a deal.  I'm sure they consider themselves close and losing their "over the top" guys this summer is going to sting.

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8 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

As for comps to Konecny, what do you give your young star winger with two less points and five more goals than your $7.1M 27-year-old center has over the past two seasons?

 

And, sure, we can factor in how PK time and faceoffs affect that number... 😎

 

For Fletcher:

image.png.7939e0b3139657f1c582318cc12f15a8.png

Edited by King Knut
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1 hour ago, radoran said:

As for comps to Konecny, what do you give your young star winger with two less points and five more goals than your $7.1M 27-year-old center has over the past two seasons?

Considering Konecny is an RFA with no arbitration rights, pretty much whatever you want...

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1 hour ago, vis said:

Considering Konecny is an RFA with no arbitration rights, pretty much whatever you want...

 

Touche, counselor 👺

 

Of course, were that true, you'd think he'd be signed by now...

 

And Provorov is also an RFA with no arbitration rights who isn't signed at whatever they want to sign him at.

 

That said, wouldn't surprise me if they have a handshake deal with Konecny pending Provorov. I don't think it would be vice-versa. Announce them both at the same time. "Locking up the future" press conference yadda yadda.

 

 

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OK...putting aside the possibility that outside signings might drive the O and B-Provo hookup, I wonder if future or perceived salary cap issues are driving the no-sign.  Would we take a first and prospects for Provo if indeed the cap ^*hit hit the fan.  I am getting uncomfortable with the length of time this has taken and have to wonder if there comes a fail safe point where resigning becomes a mess. I like Provo, but if we really believe our D-corps has good prospects, I say fine to a trade.  I can live with a bridge deal for 4-5 mill short-term bridge.  But if we end up paying 7-8 million for someone who may or may not be a first-pair defender (17-18 versus 18-19) I say auf wiedersehen.  Our commitments to Giroux, Voracek, JVR, and Hayes, are noose-like as it is--do we want five players to eat almost half our cap?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Would we take a first and prospects for Provo if indeed the cap ^*hit hit the fan.

 

No. And it shouldn't come to that and besides what do you take back for a 22 year old number one defenseman???

 

2 hours ago, Howie58 said:

I like Provo, but if we really believe our D-corps has good prospects, I say fine to a trade. 

 

And again i said no. If he is moved it better be for a gross over payment back...a top line forward and then some...but i prefer to get the kid signed and make him the cornerstone of the defense for many years to come. To me there isn't any other option.

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36 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

No. And it shouldn't come to that and besides what do you take back for a 22 year old number one defenseman???

 

 

And again i said no. If he is moved it better be for a gross over payment back...a top line forward and then some...but i prefer to get the kid signed and make him the cornerstone of the defense for many years to come. To me there isn't any other option.

Occ:

 

I hope you are right.  You could say that last season was an aberration, but I would love to see a bridge deal to know we are getting the real deal.  By the way, there might be someone out there willing to overpay.  Granted, our two recent defensive signings come off the books quite soon, but overall, with a flat cap (it seems) in the offing, I wonder if we want to commit a huge chunk of cap to a handful of players.  We keep talking about how good our young talent is.  Fine.  How the heck do we pay for them down the road if we are stuck with "high fixed costs?"  

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8 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Occ:

 

I hope you are right.  You could say that last season was an aberration, but I would love to see a bridge deal to know we are getting the real deal.  By the way, there might be someone out there willing to overpay.  Granted, our two recent defensive signings come off the books quite soon, but overall, with a flat cap (it seems) in the offing, I wonder if we want to commit a huge chunk of cap to a handful of players.  We keep talking about how good our young talent is.  Fine.  How the heck do we pay for them down the road if we are stuck with "high fixed costs?"  

 

Sure about last coming off shoulder surgery no real chance to workout and get ready for the season I am going to say he gets back on track this upcoming year.

 

Add that to the fact the whole team had it's issues and then a coaching change.

 

There are only a few on this roster I would be giving an 8 year deal and Ivan is one of them.

 

However if they have to settle on a bridge deal and revisit this in 3-4 years I can do that too.

 

Regardless just get r done!

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Occ and Colleagues:

 

The elapsed time here makes me think it goes beyond benchmark signings.  Maybe Provo's camp is stuck on a long-term deal.  I hoped this would be done a month or ago.  It doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.  

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7 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Occ and Colleagues:

 

The elapsed time here makes me think it goes beyond benchmark signings.  Maybe Provo's camp is stuck on a long-term deal.  I hoped this would be done a month or ago.  It doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.  

 

Well at this point there is no urgency to sign right now.

 

No camp is taking place yet so he isn't missing anything and know Ivan who has a very well documented rigours offseason routine he is just concentrating on that and letting his agent take care of the contract part.

 

All he has to do is actually sign the deal.

 

So as of right now Ivan isn't missing anything and I'm not that worried about it right now.

 

Now when camp starts and it's not done and he starts missing key teaching moments from the new staff I will start to be really concerned.

 

Till then nothing to see here.

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5 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Maybe Provo's camp is stuck on a long-term deal.

 

Well one thing is for sure someone has to be the one who blinks first.

 

I wonder how far apart they are i have seen nothing much on it.

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5247874

 

 

I can see TK getting done before Ivan though.

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On 8/9/2019 at 5:33 PM, radoran said:

That said, wouldn't surprise me if they have a handshake deal with Konecny pending Provorov. I don't think it would be vice-versa. Announce them both at the same time. "Locking up the future" press conference yadda yadda.

Yeah, that's kind of what I think.

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  • 2 weeks later...

For what it's worth I copied from Bill M. article on Ivan...

 

Writing in regard to Columbus Blue Jackets unsigned restricted free agent defenseman Zach Werenski, Columbus Dispatch beat writer Brian Hedger cited a source saying that agent Mark Gandler's asking price on a long-term deal for Flyers restricted free agent defenseman Ivan Provorov was in the $10 million range. While that may have been an initial ask, it is so absurdly high as to be a negotiating non-starter. The ballpark AAV figure on a long-term deal more commonly associated with the Provorov side has been closer to the $8 million range. That, too, is high but is more workable.

 

...no way he is getting 10 mill on his 2nd contract...I can see 8 mill which I what I think i said i was cool with for 8 years.

 

It would like it less but if anyone is going to get a slight overpay it should be your potential #1 defenseman.

 

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Quick-Hits-Flahr-on-RFAs-TIFH/45/101047

 

Thoughts and concerns welcome...

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1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

For what it's worth I copied from Bill M. article on Ivan...

 

Writing in regard to Columbus Blue Jackets unsigned restricted free agent defenseman Zach Werenski, Columbus Dispatch beat writer Brian Hedger cited a source saying that agent Mark Gandler's asking price on a long-term deal for Flyers restricted free agent defenseman Ivan Provorov was in the $10 million range. While that may have been an initial ask, it is so absurdly high as to be a negotiating non-starter. The ballpark AAV figure on a long-term deal more commonly associated with the Provorov side has been closer to the $8 million range. That, too, is high but is more workable.

 

...no way he is getting 10 mill on his 2nd contract...I can see 8 mill which I what I think i said i was cool with for 8 years.

 

It would like it less but if anyone is going to get a slight overpay it should be your potential #1 defenseman.

 

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Quick-Hits-Flahr-on-RFAs-TIFH/45/101047

 

Thoughts and concerns welcome...

 

I mean, in the end, I don’t care much about salaries. I realize it’s an important variable for GMs, but I’m not that. 

 

For me, it’s more about does Provorov prefer to play hockey for, say, $58M or NOT play hockey and hope for more money?

 

If he’d prefer to hold out, suit yourself. I can’t begrudge a player for doing what he thinks is right for him. I just want to watch the Flyers, with or without him. 

 

Sanheim/Niskanen

Ghost/Braun

Hagg/Myers

Morin

Friedman

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On 8/12/2019 at 10:26 AM, Howie58 said:

putting aside the possibility that outside signings might drive the O and B-Provo hookup

No. Not putting the sole reason aside and engage in "sky is falling" and goofy suggestions about trading him.  It's like, "putting aside the fact she's in 30 feet of water, a strong current, and can't swim, why do you think she's struggling to survive?"

 

There are a bunch of teams in the same boat.  Once the pieces start to fall, they'll fall. That's all there is to see here.   He is going to be signed. There's no reason, even on a slow summer day, to entertain the rest of that. 

 

One thing I haven't seen anyone comment on is whether this is all being directed by the NHLPA. It seems too coincidental that it's so many top level players in similar situations and the CBA is around the corner. 

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1 hour ago, brelic said:

I mean, in the end, I don’t care much about salaries. I realize it’s an important variable for GMs, but I’m not that. 

 

But see that's the problem in the salary cap era you have to or otherwise in the long run some good talent is headed out the door.

 

In the 90's days sure who gives a f**k.

 

But the while point of drafting all the good kids is so you can hold onto more than 3 or 4.

 

Not caring now is disaster for later.

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3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

But see that's the problem in the salary cap era you have to or otherwise in the long run some good talent is headed out the door.

 

In the 90's days sure who gives a f**k.

 

But the while point of drafting all the good kids is so you can hold onto more than 3 or 4.

 

Not caring now is disaster for later.

 

Maybe the GM should have looked to the future a bit before overpaying a mediocre free agent and giving him full term....giving all the up and coming homegrown talent reason to be greedy. 

 

 I know I've beaten that horse, but if Hayes is work 7X7 then what IS Provorov worth? Or Sanheim? Or Konecny? Or Farabee or Frost? Etc.

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