Predictions and Guesses

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

And took Goulbourne with him...

Well...the Vegas odds for winning the Cup just went WAY up..lol. We all know the ghastly history of ex flyers winning the cup...hell even Carbomb has a few rings. Ghouls will turn into some 4th line monster now...ha ha

 

[flyercanuck]

6 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

 He says after signing Hayes to a SEVEN YEAR CONTRACT.

 

 Brilliant.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

57 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 He says after signing Hayes to a SEVEN YEAR CONTRACT.

 

 Brilliant.

Hayes can also play the wing, so he really isn't boxing anyone out. His versatility will be an added bonus. Honestly, in two years it won't surprise me if Hayes is riding shotgun with Patrick or Frost. 

[CoachX]

5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 He says after signing Hayes to a SEVEN YEAR CONTRACT.

 

 Brilliant.

I dont get it

[Podein25]

4 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

Hayes can also play the wing, so he really isn't boxing anyone out. His versatility will be an added bonus. Honestly, in two years it won't surprise me if Hayes is riding shotgun with Patrick or Frost. 

 

Except his value is as a center. He's a natural center, good on faceoffs, etc. A slow $7M center-turned-winger is not what I signed up for. He was advertised as a 2C and he's making 2C money, so he better damn well play center. And good.

[CoachX]

Now that the frenzy has passed, and the smoke has cleared,  we can shift our focus. 

 

didnt get traded, (and wont). No other major moves were made. And the GM has publicly stated the door is open for the young kids to make the team. I suspect that 3rw spot will belong to one of them. Based on what Im getting from many of you, Frost looks like the most logical person.

 

The logjam at defense puzzles me still. Something has to be done. I still think it has to be Hagg who goes.

 

Thoughts?

[King Knut]

12 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

When Clarke or Homer would say this, you could rely on them being utter liars and trust that 3 more huge moves were coming.  

Hextall you could likely believe but something like the two firsts for Schenn could come along and change things.

Fletcher, I take utterly at his word and even if Toronto offers him Marner for Ghost, he's likely not budging.  

[King Knut]

44 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Now that the frenzy has passed, and the smoke has cleared,  we can shift our focus. 

 

didnt get traded, (and wont). No other major moves were made. And the GM has publicly stated the door is open for the young kids to make the team. I suspect that 3rw spot will belong to one of them. Based on what Im getting from many of you, Frost looks like the most logical person.

 

The logjam at defense puzzles me still. Something has to be done. I still think it has to be Hagg who goes.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

I agree.  Loading up on franchise depth D-men like he did yesterday doesn't suggest much other than that he's likely counting on the guys he has in the AHL being the injury call ups.

 

Is anyone likely to make a trade at this point, let alone an advantageous one? 

 

There are plenty of teams that need help on D, but what are any of them going to send us that we could use?

 

Colorado, Ottawa and Winnipeg are all still under the cap floor. New Jersey is (somehow) right on the edge.  My big fear is that one of them may make a huge offer sheet play for Provorov.  Considering that they're all good teams, we would likely not even get decent draft picks for him.

 

Fletcher screwed himself a little bit here with the Niskanen, Braun and Hayes deals.  He's only got $14 million to resign TK, Provo and Laughton.   It should be doable, and after some of the deals that have been signed (Tyler Myers, Kapanen, Johnsson) I don't think the Flyers involved can realistically demand huge pay days from Fletcher.  

 

That does nothing to prevent Sakic or someone with a poop load of cap space to throw a bazillion dollars at these kids that Fletcher can't match.  

 

Laughton, obviously, I'm not so worried about.  But if I'm Sakic, Cheveldayoff or Dorian I'm taking a long hard look at TK and Provo.  Shero might consider it, but his team's pretty stacked right now to begin with and he's likely going to need every dollar of his cap space in the next two or three years and won't want to eat it up on long term deals for these kids now.  Carolina has a lot of money, but the Aho situation will keep them busy (I don't think they have any intention of letting him go, but I do think they're going to handcuff the Habs for as long as they can until they respond).  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

1 hour ago, Podein25 said:

 

Except his value is as a center. He's a natural center, good on faceoffs, etc. A slow $7M center-turned-winger is not what I signed up for. He was advertised as a 2C and he's making 2C money, so he better damn well play center. And good.

 

That's the problem with the money he's getting.

Part of the problem with signing him when they did is that Fletcher paid anticipatory bucks.  What everyone thought would be market value.

 

Turns out if he'd waited, he probably would have gotten the dude for a million and a few years less.  It's a gamble I guess and I'm sure it rarely works out that way.  Long and short is, if you're going to overpay someone... a borderline 2C at best isn't the guy to overpay... especially when you have 2-4 prospective 2C's in the organization behind him.   

[CoachX]

Provo will be signed. So will TK. I get your point in Laughton, and could see a scenario where he gets lost.

 

If it happens, so be it

[Podein25]

4 minutes ago, King Knut said:

Part of the problem with signing him when they did is that Fletcher paid anticipatory bucks.  What everyone thought would be market value.

 

Turns out if he'd waited, he probably would have gotten the dude for a million and a few years less.  

 

I haven't done the analysis, but I will take your word for it. So what's the point of spending a 5th round pick to get him prior to July 1?

[King Knut]

2 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

I haven't done the analysis, but I will take your word for it. So what's the point of spending a 5th round pick to get him prior to July 1?

 

Immediately after Hayes signed, William Karlson got over a million less for one more year than Hayes. 

Kapanen and Johnsson both got less than half of what Hayes got.    (Somehow... that still makes ZERO sense to me even though they were RFA).  

Zuccharello got $6million for 5 years.  He's the guy who was on the market that I'd put closest to Hayes in terms of valuing salary.  He's consistently scored a bit more, but he's older and concievably Hayes still has upside to tap into.  This is the salary I expected Hayes to get.  I wouldn't have considered it a "steal" but it would have been acceptable Market value.  

 

Pavelski got $7million too, but he's Pavelski and he only signed for Three years.  I wouldn't mind paying Him (or probably even Hayes) $7million for three years.  This deal is going to start hurting bad at around that time.  

 

Duchene got $8million for Seven Years and he regularly scores 20 more points than Hayes.  

I dont' like Duchene really, I'd actually probably rather have Hayes... but market value suggests that Hayes doesn't get $885k less than a guy who scores that much more than he does 

 

Panarin got a $11.6million for 7 years, but he and Hayes aren't even in the same galaxy and also I happen to think the Rangers overpaid in a way they'll regret.  

 

Long story short, if I'm the Rangers, all things considered, I'd just have kept Hayes and Zucc two years ago and nailed down my 1C and 2C for almost the same price as my 1LW's going to cost.  

 

I think Myers was the only big D man to get signed and he only signed for 6 million.  Although Stralman got $5.5.

That's what makes me feel okay about the Market and Provo... but it's the offer sheet possibility that scares me.  

 

 

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

He's only got $14 million to resign TK, Provo and Laughton. 

 

Thats should be enough. But it really depends on what Ivan thinks he is worth.

 

Laughton is replaceable if he wants to much.

 

But what Raffl got is a good example 2 yr 1.6 mill per 2 mill tops.

 

TK should get a deal close to what Brett Connolly signed for 4-5 yrs 3.25 mill per.

 

Or what Donskoi got 4 yrs 3.9 mill cap hit. So that is roughly 6 mill to sign both of those of the 14.9 mill he has left.

 

Another 750K once Lyon is sent down. I think Gabriel's cap hit will equal NAK's once he is resigned, Gabriel will be sent down.

 

So that leaves 8.6 mill left to resign Provy. I can see him signing for 6.5 mill - 7 mill for maybe 5 years.

 

Bruins only have 10 mill left and have to sign McAvoy and Carlo so they aren't about to hand McAvoy nothing crazy.

 

The Blue Jackets have to resign Werenski and have about 17 mill to do so.

 

But i can't see them give him more than what Jones signed for which was 6 years 5.4 miill per.

 

So is Ivan heads and shoulders better than Seth Jones??? Right now he isn't so that is a good gauge i think.

 

So plenty of money left to get this done.

 

 

[brelic]

3 hours ago, Podein25 said:

He's a natural center, good on faceoffs, etc.

 

Actually, he's terrible on faceoffs. He has a career average of 45.4%, with only one season above 50 (50.5 two seasons ago).

 

He's been trending upwards, but until he actually does it, his record shows he's terrible over his career, and average at best over the past few seasons.

 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by brelic

[Podein25]

Just now, brelic said:

 

Actually, he's terrible on faceoffs. He has a career average of 45.4%, with only one season above 50 (50.5 two seasons ago).

 

 

 

Stupid stats getting in the way of a good story once again!

 

Lol, go figure. He was very good for the Jets (at least I thought he was).

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Immediately after Hayes signed, William Karlson got over a million less for one more year than Hayes. 

Kapanen and Johnsson both got less than half of what Hayes got.    (Somehow... that still makes ZERO sense to me even though they were RFA). 

 

It's not the same those guys are signing with the teams they already are on. So once you consider the time it takes to find a new home and relocate to some it isn't worth the extra money especially when you don't know if you will like the team or area which you live.

 

To some the Devil you know is better than the one you don't know.

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Zuccarello got $6million for 5 years.  He's the guy who was on the market that I'd put closest to Hayes in terms of valuing salary.

 

Not really the same...he is a winger and by the time the season starts is 5 years older than Hayes and has crossed 20 goals in over 4 years he is on the down swing in his career.

 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Duchene got $8million for Seven Years and he regularly scores 20 more points than Hayes. 

 

Not much you can do about this he has wanted to play in Nashville for a long time so he gave them a discount.

 

As had been said Philly wasn't Hayes first choice he wanted to go to NY or Boston. So yeah it's going to cost.

 

I am certainly not happy with the contract he got much less the NMC but he does address the 2nd line center hole for now.

 

I wanted to give him no more than 5 years and no NMC....but didn't get my wishes.

 

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Panarin got a $11.6million for 7 years, but he and Hayes aren't even in the same galaxy and also I happen to think the Rangers overpaid in a way they'll regret.

 

So you would have rather gave him 4.7 mill more a year and then say goodbye to Konecny because that is pretty much his salary.

 

I'm not worried about him because he will workout about as good as their Rick Nash deal.

 

And now what does NY do now break up best buds top line Kreider and Mika Zibanejad i imagine that won't sit well with those two.

 

And the Rangers still don't have a 2nd line center...Ryan Strome is not the answer...he and Kreider will not work.

 

However i don't give a f**k it's the Rangers fook em! 

 

I am just going to see how the rest of this plays out and most importantly plays out on the ice...

 

[OccamsRazor]

4 minutes ago, brelic said:

He has a career average of 45.4%, with only one season above 50 (50.5 two seasons ago).

 

Well duh it's going to bring his average down when you add his stats from his first two seasons into it.

 

His last 3 stops 51.6, 48.7 and 50.5 isn't as bad as you make it out to be. Not going to judge a guy on what he done as a 22 year old.

 

He is going upwards in the right direction and that is all you can ask at this point. And who knows he may even get better.

 

Now is he a drop off from Giroux or Coots sure...but hey he fills the 2nd line center option for now.

 

Good thing at least Patrick seems to be getting better at faceoffs too.

[CoachX]

22 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Stupid stats getting in the way of a good story once again!

 

Lol, go figure. He was very good for the Jets (at least I thought he was).

Go with, "Hes good in the room"

[Podein25]

35 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Go with, "Hes good in the room"

 

Lol, thanks for the advice. Very safe.

[CoachX]

1 minute ago, Podein25 said:

 

Lol, thanks for the advice. Very safe.

Im all about safe

[Podein25]

1 minute ago, CoachX said:

Im all about safe

 

Yeah, that's the last thing the old ladies in wheelchairs hear before they take off down the escalators.

[CoachX]

23 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Yeah, that's the last thing the old ladies in wheelchairs hear before they take off down the escalators.

I yell, "Drive carefully!"

[Podein25]

10 minutes ago, CoachX said:

I yell, "Drive carefully!"

 

Extremely helpful, as always.

[OccamsRazor]

I guess this is as good a place to put this question that Eklund posed...hey something fun on a slow day...

 

The best hockey player born on your birthday has to score on a penalty shot to save your life.

 

The goalie he's facing is the starter of the Stanley Cup champs the year you graduated high school.

Do you get to see tomorrow?

 

To find out who was born on your birthday... go here.

 

 

Myself i would be dead without even know who would be in goal but it would be Bill Ranford.

 

But the list of shooters is as terrible as can be. My birthday in December 6th....and look at the terrible terrible list of players tasked with saving my life.

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/birthdays.cgi?month=12&day=6

 

DEAD!!!!!!!!