A Bit Underwhelmed (and Concerned)

[JR Ewing]

35 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

It has to do with his complexion. 100%

 

I would like to think that you're wrong, and I would hope and prefer that it were not the case. Alas, I think you're correct.

 

[radoran]

3 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

I would like to think that you're wrong, and I would hope and prefer that it were not the case. Alas, I think you're correct.

 

 

I would hope and like to think that I am wrong as well.

 

Alas, I am pretty well convinced it is not the case...

[King Knut]

On 7/8/2019 at 11:00 PM, JR Ewing said:

 

I would like to think that you're wrong, and I would hope and prefer that it were not the case. Alas, I think you're correct.

 

 

On 7/8/2019 at 11:05 PM, radoran said:

 

I would hope and like to think that I am wrong as well.

 

Alas, I am pretty well convinced it is not the case...

 

People here on this board shred him and say they wouldn’t want him.  

 

...people who love Simmer. 

 

So so I think it goes beyond that, though I suppose it could be a factor.  

 

Maybe the management or ownership in Montreal and Nashville have such biases?

[OccamsRazor]

2 hours ago, King Knut said:

People here on this board shred him and say they wouldn’t want him.  

 

...people who love Simmer. 

 

I didn't want him because of his high price tag....the Preds pick up 3 mill of it and i would have thought about it but would have consider he would have taken minutes from the guy i like better than hi regardless of his price...Sanheim, Ghost and Myers.

 

So with that in mind i didn't want anything thing to do with him. And that was also regardless of his skin tone. However i do live in the here and now and can't speak for others but i'm not naive enough to know that yeah sadly some look at his complexion and dislike him for those reasons alone...and that is a travesty.  

[radoran]

23 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

 

People here on this board shred him and say they wouldn’t want him.  

 

...people who love Simmer. 

 

So so I think it goes beyond that, though I suppose it could be a factor.  

 

Maybe the management or ownership in Montreal and Nashville have such biases?

 

It's the same bias with Evander Kane.

 

IMO it influences the opinion.

 

"100%" may have been unnecessary hyperbole.

 

I think it played a significant role in Montreal. Less so in Nashville - where the salary cap aspect came into play.

 

But It's there.

 

It's always there.

 

EDIT: I'd like to add that with "100%" I was referring to the "sheer amount of pique for PK" in the quoted post responded to, which I was taking to mean across the hockey commentariat in general and not, specifically, to what happens around here.

Edited July 11, 2019 by radoran

[elmatus]

11 hours ago, radoran said:

It's the same bias with Evander Kane.

 

 

Wow, I hadn't thought of it in that context. I really hope you're wrong, but you may very well be on to something.

 

Would it have made sense to sign Subban? That I don't know. I don't think we know enough about Fletch to figure out how much money he'll give Provo and TK, which is key. The Hayes contract tells me Fletch is not particularly conservative in his spending habits. It's entirely possible both Provo and TK are in line for a very nice pay day. If that happens, Subban would have been impossible anyway at that price, so it's kind of a moot point.

 

I have no idea at all what's going to happen with our young FAs over the next couple years. Seattle is likely to take one of them, which is probably just as well, but even then some tough roster decisions will need to be made.

 

DISCLAIMER: I realize some people are allergic to looking more than one season ahead. If you're such a person, please just move on to another post. I guarantee you won't like the rest of this one.

 

We have 15M in cap space right now, with Provo, TK, and Laughton left to sign for this year. How much could they want?

 

Well Provo is slated as a franchise dman. Sure, he had a bad year, but given the current negotiations, I expect he's going to get a pretty substantial paycheck. I would say he'll get easily 7M and possibly even 8M. 

 

TK has better numbers than Hayes who just signed for 7x7, so the comparable there seems likely. He could very easily ask for a similar dollar point and term based on that. 

 

Would Fletch give say 8M to Provo and 7M to TK? Of course he would. Both of those guys are integral pieces to this team moving forward. He's going to give them what is necessary to keep them.

 

That would essentially chew up our remaining salary for next year, meaning Laughton has to go. That's fine. He's not a huge loss, and really we have a handful of AHLers who could plug into the 4th line just as well. In fact Fletch brought in a couple of Minnesotans who are already on the payroll for cheaper now. Just get one of them to do it.

 

Then looking into 2020-21 we would have:

 

Need to resign: Patrick, Myers, Lindblom, Lyon (or some other comparable back up at a reasonable price)

Leftovers: Braun, Elliott, Hagg, Pitlick (who cares), Gabriel (who cares)

 

Let's say Myers or Lindblom get plucked by Seattle, which seems possible given our current roster and what we would likely protect. All those leftovers amount to about 7.5M, which Fletch would then have available to resign Patrick, Myers/Lindblom, a back up goalie of some capacity, and at least two if not three dmen of some kind.

 

That's gonna take some wicked magic to pull off. It almost certainly means Fletch will be trying to trade at least one of our core vets -- Voracek or JVR would seem the most likely candidates. I can't imagine he'll trade Giroux, and Hayes can't be traded. No one else on the team really makes enough money to be considered in this context.

 

The more I look at it, the more I think this team better make one hell of a run this season, cause it seems very likely the roster will change pretty importantly over the next couple. That may be good or bad of course, but it is a thing either way.

[radoran]

54 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Wow, I hadn't thought of it in that context. I really hope you're wrong, but you may very well be on to something. 

 

Race remains a real and serious issue in this country (and world). And having a "black friend" (like, say, Simmer) doesn't change that.

 

55 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Would it have made sense to sign Subban? That I don't know.

 

The real question is whether they c/should have traded Hagg, Mark Friedman, and two seconds for a $9M cap hit.

 

I would say "no" given the cap situation you go on to outline.

 

48 minutes ago, elmatus said:

TK has better numbers than Hayes who just signed for 7x7, so the comparable there seems likely. He could very easily ask for a similar dollar point and term based on that. 

 

It's a bit of apples and oranges with KNX being an RFA with no arbitration ability. A better comparison might be the Kapanen bridge deal (perhaps a bit more) giving him, say, $10(+)M over three years leaving him as an RFA at the end.

 

52 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Let's say Myers or Lindblom get plucked by Seattle,

 

Would not at all surprise me to see them expose Voracek.

 

Would Seattle take Voracek?

 

It'll be interesting to see how Lindblom progresses this season.

 

 

[brelic]

11 minutes ago, radoran said:

Race remains a real and serious issue in this country (and world). And having a "black friend" (like, say, Simmer) doesn't change that.

 

It's not the same at all in Canada - and I would disagree that it had anything to do with race in Montreal in the case of Subban.

[radoran]

11 minutes ago, brelic said:

 

It's not the same at all in Canada - and I would disagree that it had anything to do with race in Montreal in the case of Subban.

 

Respectfully, there are "African-Canadians" who disagree with you.

[King Knut]

13 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I didn't want him because of his high price tag....the Preds pick up 3 mill of it and i would have thought about it but would have consider he would have taken minutes from the guy i like better than hi regardless of his price...Sanheim, Ghost and Myers.

 

So with that in mind i didn't want anything thing to do with him. And that was also regardless of his skin tone. However i do live in the here and now and can't speak for others but i'm not naive enough to know that yeah sadly some look at his complexion and dislike him for those reasons alone...and that is a travesty.  

 

I didn’t mean anyone in particular and I didn’t mean lately.  I meant a few years ago before the Weber trade when he was notably on the market.  We couldn’t afford him then, but he’d have been more useful then too.  I don’t disagree on not having him now but that’s more about the personnel we have ready to go than the price tag or the complexion. 

 

If i’m Honest, I’d like to pretend i’m Color blind, but seeing the kids I know respond to watching Simmer the way they did during his time here makes me think that there is added off ice value in his complexion. 

 

These days right now however (I had no idea they were shopping him) there’d Absolutely no cap space and the likes of the guys you mention make clearing cap space to get him an unproductive enterprise.  

 

3 years ago?  Hell yeah!

[King Knut]

11 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Respectfully, there are "African-Canadians" who disagree with you.

 

Yeah, absolutely.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King Knut]

54 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Would not at all surprise me to see them expose Voracek.

 

I think they have to. They’ll already have to protect G and Hayes.   Likely Seattle won’t want his contract though at three more years it won’t be terrible if he’s still productive. But even if they go for him, then at least you’ve got 8+million to sign your RFA’s and replace him with their increased responsibility.  

O

Seattle almost certainly will take whichever D-man Fletcher doesn’t protect, or Sandstrom... so it’s not likely an issue.  

 

 

Edited July 11, 2019 by King Knut

[brelic]

42 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Respectfully, there are "African-Canadians" who disagree with you.

 

Of course there will be people who disagree and think race played a role, and that's fine. I just happen to disagree - and I have no inside knowledge to back it up. Only my experience in Canadian society as a whole.

 

Weekes has never played in Montreal, barely in Canada at all. And he was in Carolina and Florida for several years, which certainly had an effect on his experience. That is his experience that he's transferring onto PK, though it's entirely possible that they've chatted about it on a personal level. But he doesn't say anything to that effect. He actually says the opposite - that he just assumes.

 

Quote

 

“It definitely had a role,” Weekes said, when asked if race played a factor in last summer’s trade that sent Subban to Nashville. “Because it’s had a role ever since he came in. I know, because I’ve lived it. And because I live it.

“So I don’t have to ask. I don’t have to surmise. It’s experiential.”

 

 

 

I'd more readily agree if the issue had been one of cultural identity - after all, this is a city that booed their Finnish captain for not learning enough French.

 

But enough digression for me in a hockey thread... 

Edited July 11, 2019 by brelic

[OccamsRazor]

47 minutes ago, radoran said:

Would not at all surprise me to see them expose Voracek.

 

You're going to see Jake and JVR both exposed. They have to expose 10% of the total salary cap.

 

Those two alone represent 15.2 mill.

 

7 forwards 3 D men 1 goalie...i could figure out who would be the 7th forward with the 10% in mind.

Giroux

Hayes 

Couts

TK

Patrick

Lindblom

?????

 

Provorov

Sanheim

Myers

 

Hart  

 

Or 8 skaters and a goalie

 

Giroux

Hayes 

Couts

TK

Patrick

Provorov

Sanheim

Myers

Hart  

 

Either way i can only come up with the same guys.

 

 

So JVR, Voracek and Ghost will be exposed in my mind....can anyone come up with a better setup?

 

[elmatus]

50 minutes ago, radoran said:

It's a bit of apples and oranges with KNX being an RFA with no arbitration ability. A better comparison might be the Kapanen bridge deal (perhaps a bit more) giving him, say, $10(+)M over three years leaving him as an RFA at the end.

 

Kapanen hasn't had the NHL success TK has though. He might given another couple years, but he hasn't yet. More importantly, if I'm TK's agent, I'm not using Kapanen as a comparable. I'm definitely using Hayes, as I think any agent worth their salts should do given the situation at hand.

 

You're not wrong about the RFA status. TK could sign some sort of bridge deal, but he also has plenty of legs to stand on to fight for better. Sanheim made more sense, but TK has been a solid NHL player now for some time, and he has yet to enter his prime. While the RFA status may drop his pricetag somewhat, a good agent is going to milk TK's relative success in comparison to Hayes and get more money. 10M over three years seems very low to me for TK.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would be a bargain and would likely require some pretty substantial posturing from the Fletch camp. If it's a bridge, I could see him getting 5M for 2-3 years. If it's not a bridge, I have to assume we're looking at something closer to 7M using Hayes as a comparable.

 

If TK becomes even marginally better (and he's only 22), he could easily flirt with 60pts this year. That really wouldn't be a big leap at all for him, especially given improved coaching. Fletch should be locking this guy up for some time, not giving him another bridge deal that's just going to bite us in two years.

[radoran]

54 minutes ago, elmatus said:

but he also has plenty of legs to stand on to fight for better.

 

I completely agree with you. The flip side is that he can "fight" for more, but he's can't force the issue (without a holdout/sitout).

 

I think they'll work out a deal - maybe a little more (per year) if it's a bridge ending in RFA, maybe a little less (per year) if it stretches to him being UFA. ~$10M may be a little low. I'd be surprised if it's $15M/3.

 

But I've been surprised before...

 

This is where the whole Hayes situation starts to bug me - it really inflates the salaries of everyone who's better than him. And there are a lot of those guys.

[mojo1917]

5 minutes ago, radoran said:

This is where the whole Hayes situation starts to bug me - it really inflates the salaries of everyone who's better than him. And there are a lot of those guys.

 

This is the best encapsulation of my issue with Hayes' contract that I've seen. 

I couldn't quite find these words - so thanks for that. 

 

the Flyers cap situation could get really ugly if 3/4 of the prospects hit their projections.

I think for the sake of the game the CBA needs serious reworking. I am not in favor of adopting the whole of the NBA's structure, but I do think the tiered structure that allows teams to keep their home grown guys at various income levels is some thing the NHL should seriously consider. 

Max contracts, mid level exemptions I think would go a long way in keeping the teams that build through the draft together longer and would increase the quality of the product on the ice. Imagine if the Blackhawks, Kings, Predators, Sharks and (gulp) the Pens would be able to keep their roster quality intact, those teams stay good, new teams build and get good....more good teams makes for new rivalries, increases the quality of the traditional rivalries. 

The current reality of drafting and developing players just to see the team lose them because of what their skill brings on the FA market doesn't seem "just" to me. 

[OccamsRazor]

8 minutes ago, radoran said:

it really inflates the salaries of everyone who's better than him.

 

Sure maybe if you only measure a guys worth by the points he produces.

 

However Hayes does play the PP and the PK.....and he is better in the shootout....TK is still looking for his first shootout goal.

 

So there are many different ways to measure a players worth. And i am not saying one is better than the other in either way.

 

Just they play different positions and have different roles...and Hayes stays out the box....TK maybe will learn to do that?

 

So what is all that worth??? If no one else appreciates Hayes it will be Coots to take some PK time and pressure off of him.

[radoran]

33 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I do think the tiered structure that allows teams to keep their home grown guys at various income levels is some thing the NHL should seriously consider.  

Max contracts, mid level exemptions I think would go a long way in keeping the teams that build through the draft together longer and would increase the quality of the product on the ice. Imagine if the Blackhawks, Kings, Predators, Sharks and (gulp) the Pens would be able to keep their roster quality intact, those teams stay good, new teams build and get good

 

There's never going to be a perfect system - and the NBA is a much different league than the NHL because the "superstars" have much more influence on a much smaller roster.

 

Creating exemptions for retaining "your" players is a good area to explore. It does risk the haves/have nots that the league was trying to eliminate ("big market" teams could have an advantage at keeping "their" players, for example).

 

It'll be interesting to see what plays out in the next negotiation.

 

28 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Sure maybe if you only measure a guys worth by the points he produces.

 

Well, when you have guys that go to arbitration, for example, that's pretty much what they are looking at because it's much easier to directly compare and measure than "intangibles" or specific roles on the ice. And while advanced stats can bring some extra perspective, they have their limitations as well. Goals and points will IMO continue to be the more highly valued asset.

 

39 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

and he is better in the shootout....TK is still looking for his first shootout goal.

 

Hayes is 2 for 5 over the past three seasons (1-1, 0-0. 1-4). KNX is 0 for 8 (0-3, 0-4. 0-1).

 

It's really an absurdly small impact for consideration.

 

And, for a guy who "plays the PP", Hayes has all of 26 PPP (7, 8, 11) over the past three years...

 

52 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

So what is all that worth??? If no one else appreciates Hayes it will be Coots to take some PK time and pressure off of him.

 

Right, and Coots is a great example of the potential impact. He's a guy that has all of the aspects of Hayes' game and puts up many more points. When he comes up in three years, what's he going to command? $12M per?

 

Hayes is just an example, it is a league-wide problem (again - hello next lockout!) like having a team devoting $19M to two players who have never even played a playoff game (hello Buffalo!) or a team "having" to lock up 33% of their cap in three players and getting two rounds of playoffs in four years after a Cup run (hello L.A. and Chicago!).

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

I am not in favor of adopting the whole of the NBA's structure, but I do think the tiered structure that allows teams to keep their home grown guys at various income levels is some thing the NHL should seriously consider. 

 

I know next to nothing about the NBA. How does this work?

[Podein25]

23 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

I know next to nothing about the NBA. How does this work?

 

I think it's something like: Trust. The. Process.

 

 

[radoran]

55 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

I know next to nothing about the NBA. How does this work?

 

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=nba salary cap&s=g

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap

 

[mojo1917]

32 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

I think it's something like: Trust. The. Process.

 

 

@elmatus

what Pods says...

Actually, for starters, it is a soft cap with a luxury tax.

And there are "exeptions " one that readily comes to mind is the Larry Bird exemption,  which allows for teams to exceed the cap to keep their "Larry Bird". So essentially Sidney Crosby could sign for market value and it would not adversely effect the Pen's cap even if his contract puts the team over the limit.

There are myriad possibilities to make the CBA more "team building friendly" that could be explored. The NBA is a different league with more revenue, but if a player wants to stay with the team that drafted him and make market value, the NBA's cba makes allowances. My go to example is Brandon Saad, he wanted to stay in Chicago but would have cost himself 3 million a year if he did, there's something not good about that to me.

[King Knut]

3 hours ago, radoran said:

The real question is whether they c/should have traded Hagg, Mark Friedman, and two seconds for a $9M cap hit.

 

 

I make that trade in a heartbeat, if there was the cap room... which there wasn't.  Hagg and Friedman aren't part of this team's future anyway and I'd just as soon have PK for a few years.  Wouldn't you sooner have done that than the Niskanen deal?

 

3 hours ago, radoran said:

 

It's a bit of apples and oranges with KNX being an RFA with no arbitration ability. A better comparison might be the Kapanen bridge deal (perhaps a bit more) giving him, say, $10(+)M over three years leaving him as an RFA at the end.

 

 

I don't think it's apples to oranges, but maybe fuji to Granny Smith.  The Kapanen deal is a good comparison, but I still don't know how Toronto convinced him and Johnson to sign those.  Where the Hayes deal comes into play is if TK continues to progress and has a 60-70 point season during this bridge deal as I'm sure he suspects he might.  

 

3 hours ago, radoran said:

 

 

Would not at all surprise me to see them expose Voracek.

 

Would Seattle take Voracek?

 

It'll be interesting to see how Lindblom progresses this season.

 

 

 

They have to expose Jake.  he could have back to back 100pt. seasons and they'd still likely have to expose him.  With Giroux and now Hayes requiring protection with their NMC's They have to either take a risk that Seattle won't pay his salary or hope they will and that they can use that cap space for extensions.  

 

It's all moot however,  because there's no way Seattle isn't taking one of our D-men unless Chuck trades one or two of them between then and now.

 

[FD19372]

On 7/4/2019 at 6:57 PM, Podein25 said:

 

What about Dr. Seuss?

Paul Holmgren, I am. Green Eggs, Ham and my Abacus.

Edited July 11, 2019 by FD19372