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WordsOfWisdom

Points Percentage: Where the Leafs Are Really At

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Eastern Conference Standings

  GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA SRS SOS RPt% RW
Atlantic Division

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17 11 3 3 25 .735 60 43 0.99 -0.01 .706 11

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19 9 6 4 22 .579 64 62 0.03 -0.07 .500 6

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17 9 5 3 21 .618 61 54 0.27 -0.15 .529 7

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17 8 4 5 21 .618 62 63 0.24 0.29 .500 5

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17 9 6 2 20 .588 50 48 0.01 -0.11 .529 6

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15 8 5 2 18 .600 52 52 0.24 0.24 .500 6

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16 6 9 1 13 .406 45 51 -0.39 -0.02 .406 5

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19 6 12 1 13 .342 42 72 -1.42 0.16 .316 6
Metropolitan Division

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18 13 2 3 29 .806 74 55 1.22 0.16 .694 9

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16 12 3 1 25 .781 49 35 1.01 0.13 .719 9

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17 10 5 2 22 .647 56 52 0.21 -0.03 .559 6

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17 10 6 1 21 .618 58 44 0.91 0.08 .559 7

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17 9 7 1 19 .559 53 50 -0.09 -0.26 .500 6

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15 7 6 2 16 .533 51 51 0.04 0.04 .500 7

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17 6 8 3 15 .441 40 58 -0.86 0.20 .353 3

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16 5 7 4 14 .438 42 61 -1.00 0.19 .375 4

 

 

Points Percentage is the definitive stat for where a team really is in the standings. The concept is simple: Points gained divided by total points available.

 

The Leafs have one of the worst points percentages in the Atlantic division at .579, meaning they have accumulated little more than half of the points that were available to them in the standings and squandered the rest. Although they sit just behind Boston in the standings, the two teams have nothing in common. Boston is far ahead.

 

A quick glance down the standings and we can see that Montreal (.618), Florida (.618), Tampa (.600), and even Buffalo (.588) are still ahead of Toronto in the standings, despite a recent 5-game losing streak by the Sabres. But it gets even better...

 

With a top 3 spot in the division gone, the Leafs are looking towards a wild card spot to make the playoffs. Well, Pittsburgh (.618) and Tampa (.600) have those covered as well.  Thus, despite sitting second in the division, the illusion of the current standings is such that the Leafs are realistically on the outside of the playoffs looking in. They're actually the 10th best team in the East right now!

 

 

 

Edited by WordsOfWisdom

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Eastern Conference - Imaginary Standings

  GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA SRS SOS RPt% RW
Atlantic Division

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18 11 3 4 26 .722 64 48 0.89 0.00 .694 11

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18 10 5 3 23 .639 64 56 0.27 -0.17 .528 7

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18 9 4 5 23 .639 67 67 0.34 0.34 .500 5

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20 9 7 4 22 .550 68 67 0.02 -0.03 .475 6

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17 9 6 2 20 .588 50 48 0.04 -0.08 .529 6

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15 8 5 2 18 .600 52 52 0.25 0.25 .500 6

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18 7 10 1 15 .417 51 61 -0.59 -0.03 .417 6

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20 7 12 1 15 .375 46 75 -1.33 0.12 .350 6
Metropolitan Division

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20 14 2 4 32 .800 79 60 1.16 0.21 .675 9

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17 13 3 1 27 .794 54 39 0.98 0.10 .735 10

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18 10 5 3 23 .639 57 54 0.21 0.04 .556 6

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18 10 6 2 22 .611 60 47 0.78 0.06 .528 7

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18 10 7 1 21 .583 61 52 0.24 -0.27 .528 7

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16 8 6 2 18 .563 54 53 0.13 0.07 .531 7

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18 6 8 4 16 .444 42 61 -0.83 0.23 .361 3

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17 5 8 4 14 .412 44 65 -1.10 0.14 .353

4

 

 

Eastern Conference - Real Standings

  1. Washington Capitals (.800)
  2. New York Islanders (.794)
  3. Boston Bruins (.722)
  4. Montreal / Philadelphia / Florida (.639)
  5. -
  6. -
  7. Pittsburgh Penguins (.611)
  8. Tampa Bay Lightning (.600)
  9. Buffalo Sabres (.588)
  10. Carolina Hurricanes (.583)
  11. New York Rangers (.563)
  12. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (.550)
  13. Columbus Blue Jackets (.444)
  14. Ottawa Senators (.417)
  15. New Jersey Devils (.412)
  16. Detroit Red Wings (.375)

 

Can we consider the Leafs to have hit rock bottom yet?  I don't think people are grasping the fact that this team is closer to the bottom than they are to the top now. Matthews can score 100 goals on this team and they'll just surrender 101.  

 

Changes are needed after the latest defensive debacle against the Islanders.  

 

 💩 

 

 

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Eastern Conference

  GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA SRS SOS RPt% RW
Atlantic Division

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20 12 3 5 29 .725 70 53 0.87 0.02 .700 12

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20 11 5 4 26 .650 72 62 0.35 -0.15 .525 8

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20 10 5 5 25 .625 74 74 0.24 0.24 .500 6

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20 10 7 3 23 .575 59 59 -0.04 -0.04 .500 7

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22 9 9 4 22 .500 71 77 -0.18 0.09 .432 6

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17 9 6 2 20 .588 64 59 0.44 0.15 .500 7

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20 8 11 1 17 .425 55 66 -0.58 -0.03 .425 7

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22 7 12 3 17 .386 51 82 -1.44 -0.03 .341 6
Metropolitan Division

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23 16 3 4 36 .783 89 69 1.03 0.16 .652 10

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18 14 3 1 29 .806 58 42 1.00 0.11 .722 10

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20 12 7 1 25 .625 70 59 0.29 -0.26 .575 7

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20 11 7 2 24 .600 67 50 0.91 0.06 .525 8

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20 10 6 4 24 .600 61 60 0.17 0.12 .525 6

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18 8 8 2 18 .500 60 66 -0.22 0.11 .472 7

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19 7 8 4 18 .474 45 63 -0.74 0.21 .395 3

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19 7 8 4 18 .474 50 69 -0.82 0.18 .421

5

 

 

As the Leafs head to Las Vegas, they are now at .500 in points percentage. (Not to be confused with having a .500 W/L record.) The Leafs have exactly 22 points in 22 games and are on pace for 82 points. They currently sit tied for 10th place in the East with the New York Rangers. 

 

Within the Atlantic division, the Lightning now have 5 games in hand over the Leafs, and the Sens have 2 games in hand and are within striking distance of the Leafs. Buffalo and Florida are now ahead of Toronto (finally) and with games in hand. 

 

We rapidly approach the point of no return on the 2019-2020 season for Toronto. 

 

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The changes have occurred via Keefe.

 

Something I never understood with Babs is he decided that Matthews and Hyman would be linemates even before they'd played an NHL game. That duo was only broken up because Matthews didn't like it, I think Keefe will be more flexible in the lineup configuration, he'll look for ways to improve things probably even when things are going well. 

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On 12/12/2019 at 12:49 AM, hobie said:

The changes have occurred via Keefe.

 

Something I never understood with Babs is he decided that Matthews and Hyman would be linemates even before they'd played an NHL game. That duo was only broken up because Matthews didn't like it, I think Keefe will be more flexible in the lineup configuration, he'll look for ways to improve things probably even when things are going well. 

 

Yes, you're a bit late getting to this thread.  Better late than never!  :thumbsu:

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I'm not sure how they calculate these numbers but I compared our schedule to Tampa
 
  Leafs Lightning
# Games 41 44
# Away 19 24
# Back to Backs 4 9
# rested vs b2b opponent 6 0
# Playoff opponents 18 23
Leafs have less games in total, less road games, less back to backs, less playoff opponents and in 6 occurrences they play a team on the back end of a back to back when we are rested.

I would say leafs have an easier schedule.
 

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TB has a few games in hand on TO and is the team that's most likely to knock TO out of 2nd in the Atlantic or are they?

 

I saw this posting from HF boards, sorta makes TO status seem a lot more secure and makes TO's quest to make the playoffs pretty well automatic.

 

 

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On 1/2/2020 at 8:29 PM, hobie said:

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TB has a few games in hand on TO and is the team that's most likely to knock TO out of 2nd in the Atlantic or are they?

 

I saw this posting from HF boards, sorta makes TO status seem a lot more secure and makes TO's quest to make the playoffs pretty well automatic.

 

 

 

What a remarkable turnaround.  They made the coaching change at the right time. Any further with Babcock and the season would have been lost. The Leafs are the hottest team in the league right now. They're finding ways to win. Tonight they even got their first shutout of the season (I think) against the Islanders.  :) 

 

I don't like to say anything is a given, because I think there will only be three teams coming out of the Atlantic division this season. The Metro is the tougher division.  I think Tampa/Boston are #1 and #2, and then Leafs would do well to finish above Florida, Montreal, and Buffalo, or they're out. 

 

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Tonite was emblematic of what TO is, essentially a 2 line team with decent support. Lately the JT line had been carrying the team, mostly, but tonite Austin's line took care of the offense. That's the value of having 2 strong lines.

 

We are seeing something we wouldn't ever have seen with Babs, TO using rookies in important situations like PKing. With Babs TO would be looking for a 3rd line center, an experienced d-man, and God knows what else because Babs has trust issues. Keefe is willing to play new players and we can now see that TO has depth, not just depth but quality depth.

 

Anyway, it's been a great ride, and I think TO only needs 45 points in the last 39 games to make the playoffs.  

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12 hours ago, hobie said:

Tonite was emblematic of what TO is, essentially a 2 line team with decent support. Lately the JT line had been carrying the team, mostly, but tonite Austin's line took care of the offense. That's the value of having 2 strong lines.

 

With the amount of parity in the league (not a fan of parity) you're lucky if you have two good lines. Most teams only have one.

 

12 hours ago, hobie said:

We are seeing something we wouldn't ever have seen with Babs, TO using rookies in important situations like PKing. With Babs TO would be looking for a 3rd line center, an experienced d-man, and God knows what else because Babs has trust issues. Keefe is willing to play new players and we can now see that TO has depth, not just depth but quality depth.

 

I think Babcock is the perfect example of a coach who thought he was smarter than the game.  As though the game had to evolve to match his "perfect" coaching system and not the other way around. He had such a great track record coming into Toronto, but clearly the game had passed him by and he wasn't capable of trying new things.

 

12 hours ago, hobie said:

Anyway, it's been a great ride, and I think TO only needs 45 points in the last 39 games to make the playoffs.  

 

Only?   There's still a long way to go.  The team has been playing well, but the inevitable "cool down" period is surely coming. The Bruins went to sleep with their 20 point lead in the division and now they're going to start playing again. The Lightning (whenever they receive their 82-game schedule from the league) will be either #1 or #2 in this division. 

 

The trade deadline could change things drastically as well. Is Toronto going to stand still while teams around them (Boston, Tampa, maybe Florida) arm themselves for the playoffs?  A good acquisition at the trade deadline can put a good team over the top.  :) 

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Good acquisitions TO could make for the 2nd half of the season Johnsson, Mikey, Moore and Muzzin returning to the lineup and Sandin being promoted. When all of the players become healthy TO is going to return to Cap hell so some of the players who deserve to be Leafs might not be.

 

How will TO look when everyone is healthy?

 

Mikey/AM/MM

Hy/JT/Ny

Johnsson/Kerfoot/Kappy

Engvall/Spezza/Moore

 

Tima

 

Rielly/Barrie

Muzzin/Holl

Sandin/Ceci

 

Dermott/Marincin

 

Interesting observation about the game last night, the d pairing used against the Islanders last night Marincin and Holl. TO scored with those 2 on so they ended up +3. That's not my observation, it was mentioned on TSN today. 

 

 

 

  

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On 1/5/2020 at 2:57 PM, hobie said:

Good acquisitions TO could make for the 2nd half of the season Johnsson, Mikey, Moore and Muzzin returning to the lineup and Sandin being promoted. When all of the players become healthy TO is going to return to Cap hell so some of the players who deserve to be Leafs might not be.

 

The league should consider allowing teams to go a certain % over the cap at the trade deadline to boost their team for the playoffs. Most of these players are rentals anyway, and they wind up being free agents in the summer, so what's the harm in allowing a team to acquire an impact player from a team that isn't going anywhere (a bottom feeder looking to tank for example) so that we can see the best players in the playoffs and have more stacked teams? 

 

On 1/5/2020 at 2:57 PM, hobie said:

Interesting observation about the game last night, the d pairing used against the Islanders last night Marincin and Holl. TO scored with those 2 on so they ended up +3. That's not my observation, it was mentioned on TSN today. 

 

Yeah I noticed that actually. I was still messing around with my Defence stat looking at game data.  :) 

 

The conclusion I've come to is that the Defence stat (the one I made a thread about) should be looked at as secondary to Points. So in other words, go for Points first and foremost, but if you're a player that doesn't contribute many Points to your team, then you better have a high Defence score or you're not adding value to your team.  

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