Flyers at the halfway mark

[brelic]

This morning, the Flyers are officially outside of the playoff picture.

 

That seems to sum up the first half quite succinctly, I would say. 

 

They are a team with two faces. A successful home team - among the best in the NHL. And an awful road team - near the bottom of the NHL.

 

The complete absence of Patrick, the cruel misfortune of Lindblom, multiple injuries to key players, suspensions, and - probably most significantly - poor goaltending, has been the story of the season so far.

 

An .899 for Elliott and .905 for Hart just isn't good enough. A big part of that is defensive play, which has been a problem this year. This new 'trend' of goals-against avalanche in a short span is partly on the players but also on the goalies. 

 

Consider that last year, with 8 goalies, a coaching change, and a GM change, the team save percentage was .900. This year, it's .902. 

 

Still, if you had told me we'd be on pace for 98 points at the halfway mark, I would have deemed that a successful start to the AV / Fletch era. 

 

Any way you slice it, even though they are seemingly more successful than in years past, I find myself frustrated and feeling like they are still 2-3 years away. 

[radoran]

17 minutes ago, brelic said:

This morning, the Flyers are officially outside of the playoff picture.

  

"If the playoffs started today, we'd all be very surprised". Flyers are all of one ROW "out of the playoff picture" which, to me, means they are still "in the picture" with half a season to go. They have work to do, but it's not inconceivable.

 

13 minutes ago, brelic said:

They are a team with two faces. A successful home team - among the best in the NHL. And an awful road team - near the bottom of the NHL.

 

It's not all that unusual. Buffalo is 13-5-3 at home and trails Flyers by four points. Minnesota is 11-4-4 at home with three points less than the Flyers (Wild 9-13-2 on the road to the Flyers' 9-13-1).

 

The concern here is that "good" teams at the top of the standings have good results at home and on the road. Given that these teams are the ones the Flyers would face in a playoff situation, it's going to be a problem in a seven game series without home ice for a team that apparently relies on favorable matchups to achieve success.

 

I'm curious to see how they do at home in the next few weeks - WAS, TB, BOS, MON, LA, PIT, COL through Feb 1. That's some tougher competition than they've had at home previously. March brings CAR, BUF, BOS, MIN, EDM, STL, NYI, PIT down the stretch.

 

23 minutes ago, brelic said:

Still, if you had told me we'd be on pace for 98 points at the halfway mark, I would have deemed that a successful start to the AV / Fletch era. 

 

Any way you slice it, even though they are seemingly more successful than in years past, I find myself frustrated and feeling like they are still 2-3 years away. 

 

2-3 years away from seriously "competing for the Stanley Cup"? That might be more optimistic than you/we/I think...

 

It's a good start - and one that I think reflects the impact of coaching. But the overall talent level on the team - such as the depth scoring AV recently referenced - remains a concern. Then take into account that the "top scorers" on the team are projected to 68 (Couturier), 66 (Voracek), 60 (Giroux) points while five other NHL players have already eclipsed 60 and the top scorer (Konecny) is 40th in the league with 36 points "on pace" for 73...

 

73 points was tied for 42nd in the NHL last season. 68 was tied for 49th.

 

Oh, and also, for "goals scored" the top players on the Flyers are "on pace" for 26 (Giroux), 24 (KNX, Couturier, JVR(!), Hayes), 18 (Provorov), and 16 (Voracek) while three players (Pastrnak, Matthews, Eichel) are already at 26+ and 75 or so are rightnow ahead of the Flyers' top goal scorer. Flyers are tied for ninth in the East (with the Rags) for Goals For and would be eight in the West - decidedly "middle of the pack."

 

Even if Farabee, Frost, etc. come in and go on Konecney's growth pattern - is that enough?

 

It's possible - the Blues had just three 20+ goal scorers last season (also 14 at 10+).  The Flyers - roughly - are "on pace" to have 5 20+ scorers and 11 10+ goal scorers (with the caveat that one of them - Lindblom - is out for the season).

 

We'll see... 98 points was a bubble playoff team last year in the East - CLS got in with 98. The Cup Winning Blues had 99.

[Howie58]

Rad:

 

You are touching on a good point; it looks like our top line's performance is deteriorating, and G's Indian Summer of the last two years has turned down.  Our youngins need to develop faster than we hoped.  

 

Patrick, Lindblom, Morin...I suspect the franchise will have to deal with these setbacks.  Hopefully there is good medical news. If not, we have lost a relative chunk of recent high draft picks. 

[Howie58]

Another point....inconsistency.  The home/away difference is a new form of the inconsistency.  Under Hakstol, it was between and within games.  I guess we were hoping against hope that would change under AV.  It has...and it hasn't.  

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

2-3 years away from seriously "competing for the Stanley Cup"? That might be more optimistic than you/we/I think...

 

 

I agree completely. 

 

Looking around the NHL, serious contending teams have some remarkable similarities that we just don't share. We've mentioned this before of course, but one big one is the lack of truly elite level talent. Giroux had a couple seasons of that level, but he's really not a 90-100pt per year guy by any stretch, and we have no other players on the roster who project to be at that level.

 

This is really the mediocrity curse the team has battled for some time now. Homer tried to buy his way to contention, which only really saw limited success, and Hexy opted to try to build a more rounded team that didn't require that level of talent. We've seen both approaches and what they lead to. To me, both of those options have been lacking an essential spark.

 

It's not the only factor certainly. There are some contender-relevant teams who don't rely on top level talent (Nashville and Vegas come to mind), but these are anomalies whose success seems very hard to reproduce. When we look at the truly successful teams of the last decade, the pattern is pretty clear. These weren't stacked teams (aside from possibly Washington). They had a few motors driving the team forward, and a bunch of complimentary pieces mostly there to support and not screw up too badly.

 

I hate to say it, but it's entirely possible what this team really needs most is just to suck very badly for a few years to get top three picks, or otherwise to get lucky on a few who turn out to be significantly better than anticipated. Neither of those are recipes for guaranteed success of course, but recent history seems to suggest it's the easiest way to become truly relevant.

[RonJeremy]

1 hour ago, Howie58 said:

Rad:

 

You are touching on a good point; it looks like our top line's performance is deteriorating, and G's Indian Summer of the last two years has turned down.  Our youngins need to develop faster than we hoped.  

 

Patrick, Lindblom, Morin...I suspect the franchise will have to deal with these setbacks.  Hopefully there is good medical news. If not, we have lost a relative chunk of recent high draft picks. 

Rubstov, Labergre and Allison have both had their careers stalled due to injury as well. We may have to prepare for the chance that Patrick and Lindblom, may never come back at all and Morin may not be part of our plans any more either.

One major issue thet needs to be addressed is that our two best players , TK and Provo were both targeted with headshots in recent games and we did nothing and we do not have a top 9 player on this roster who can protect and deter this.  The days of a 4th line goon who plays 3 shifts and purely fights are over. We need a couple of everyday players who can play old school hockey, finish checks, storm the net ,provide offense as well as fight if needed.  We cant have  Farabee strpping in to fight for teammates. Teams like St Louis  and Boston would pound us into the ice,  we cant survive a bunch of long physical playoff series with this current team.

Edited January 6, 2020 by RonJeremy

[Digityman]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

It's a good start - and one that I think reflects the impact of coaching. But the overall talent level on the team - such as the depth scoring AV recently referenced - remains a concern. Then take into account that the "top scorers" on the team are projected to 68 (Couturier), 66 (Voracek), 60 (Giroux) points while five other NHL players have already eclipsed 60 and the top scorer (Konecny) is 40th in the league with 36 points "on pace" for 73...

 

73 points was tied for 42nd in the NHL last season. 68 was tied for 49th.

 

Oh, and also, for "goals scored" the top players on the Flyers are "on pace" for 26 (Giroux), 24 (KNX, Couturier, JVR(!), Hayes), 18 (Provorov), and 16 (Voracek) while three players (Pastrnak, Matthews, Eichel) are already at 26+ and 75 or so are rightnow ahead of the Flyers' top goal scorer. Flyers are tied for ninth in the East (with the Rags) for Goals For and would be eight in the West - decidedly "middle of the pack."

 

Holy crap.   Thanks for doing that data dig.  That's incredible and really tells a story.

[Howie58]

8 minutes ago, Digityman said:

 

Holy crap.   Thanks for doing that data dig.  That's incredible and really tells a story.

Another point that makes Rad's observation more disturbing.  We are the league's top face-off team, and have been among the top for the past few years. So...we win face-offs...but what do we do with that?  Not as much as we can or should....as seen in the PP and low scoring.

 

Yikes.

 

 

[Howie58]

My gut says Chuck F. is aware of these problems. He probably tries to offload a senior member of the team as salary dump, and takes draft picks to replenish what's been lost through injuries/illness.  Ghost might be first choice.  Raffl is also on the screen.  If he ate some salary..maybe Voracek. 

[CoachX]

2 hours ago, radoran said:

It's a good start - and one that I think reflects the impact of coaching. But the overall talent level on the team - such as the depth scoring AV recently referenced - remains a concern. Then take into account that the "top scorers" on the team are projected to 68 (Couturier), 66 (Voracek), 60 (Giroux) points while five other NHL players have already eclipsed 60 and the top scorer (Konecny) is 40th in the league with 36 points "on pace" for 73...

Great points. I know I will catch flack and hearbthe usual, "i like what he brings" response, but I don't think the flyers have done a good job surrounding our top players with guys like laughton, raffl, weal, wiese, lehtera, vorobyev, hartman, etc.

 

Your posts reflects the problem that our top are declining and we have no one in the tank to help pick up the slot.

 

I also think there is still push back from veterans on the new coach regime. These guys arent used to being called out and I worry that they will not be able to adapt and elevate their game

[CoachX]

13 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

My gut says Chuck F. is aware of these problems. He probably tries to offload a senior member of the team as salary dump, and takes draft picks to replenish what's been lost through injuries/illness.  Ghost might be first choice.  Raffl is also on the screen.  If he ate some salary..maybe Voracek. 

I hope your right. Id even buy you a bottle of red if your insight comes to fruition

 

Someone get this man Chuck's phone number

[elmatus]

12 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

My gut says Chuck F. is aware of these problems. He probably tries to offload a senior member of the team as salary dump, and takes draft picks to replenish what's been lost through injuries/illness.  Ghost might be first choice.  Raffl is also on the screen.  If he ate some salary..maybe Voracek. 

 

I think we may see some of this, but I don't think we'll see a wholesale shift in the roster. Hiring the most experienced coaching staff of the last decade was a win now move, not a possibly be relevant at some point in the next decade move.

 

Problem is the team as it stands is good enough to be a bubble team, which leads us to more mediocrity.

[CoachX]

9 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Hiring the most experienced coaching staff of the last decade was a win now move, not a possibly be relevant at some point in the next decade move

 

Problem is the team as it stands is good enough to be a bubble team, which leads us to more mediocrity

I disagree. I think AV was brought in to win and if that means taking a few seasons to get his type of players who can play his style of hockey, then they will do it 

 

Its obvious they cant go deep in the playoffs with this current group 

Edited January 6, 2020 by CoachX

[radoran]

6 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Problem is the team as it stands is good enough to be a bubble team, which leads us to more mediocrity.

 

I think the goal is "to make the playoffs". "Maybe win a round." "Anything can happen."

 

This is the "definitely a playoff organization" phase of the rebuild.

[elmatus]

18 minutes ago, CoachX said:

I disagree. I think AV was brought in to win and if that means taking a few seasons to get his type of players who can play his style of hockey, then they will do it 

 

Its obvious they cant go deep in the playoffs with this current group 

 

Who are you thinking, and how would you get them?

 

Who are our biggest trade chips right now? We'd have a couple of young guns: Provo, TK. And a vet core members who would net a good return: Giroux and Couts.

 

So let's say we trade Provo or TK. Plenty of teams would want these guys, as they are building blocks to build a contender with. Provo in particular would be worth a very nice haul. Who would you consider?

 

Giroux would net a good return on a contending team looking for an edge. They'd have to have about 7M in cap space, which isn't bad at all. The return for him wouldn't give us a high first rounder of course, since those contender teams won't have an early 1st round to offer. He'd probably net a late 1st (maybe two) and a solid prospect and mid-six roster player. Is that worth losing him? Maybe.

 

Couts would likely give us more. He's currently in his prime and plays a two-way game teams cry for all the time. We'd have our pick of suitor for him. What would you opt for?

 

Aside from that bunch, none of the rest are going to change the team very drastically. The most likely trade candidates we have are Voracek and Ghost. I honestly think both are gone by next season, which is a good thing imo. But neither of those guys are going to give us that much in return. And what do we need? 

 

What is AV's type of player? His most dominant team was easily Vancouver. Those teams relied heavily on a pair of HOF-bound twins and one of the most successful goalies of this generation. Can we trade all of the above mentioned for that kind of trio? Would any team ever give up that type of trio?

 

Let's say we offer Colorado all of Giroux, Voracek, Ghost, TK, Couts, and Provo. Would that get us Mackinnon and Rantanen? If so, would our team be measurably better losing all those guys?

 

I'm with you in that it's obvious they're not going to contend with this current group. I just don't think it's nearly as easy as "move everyone and get the type of player AV needs." 

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention Hart in all that. Who do we get for Carter Hart?

Edited January 6, 2020 by elmatus

[brelic]

48 minutes ago, elmatus said:

It's not the only factor certainly. There are some contender-relevant teams who don't rely on top level talent (Nashville and Vegas come to mind), but these are anomalies whose success seems very hard to reproduce. When we look at the truly successful teams of the last decade, the pattern is pretty clear. These weren't stacked teams (aside from possibly Washington). They had a few motors driving the team forward, and a bunch of complimentary pieces mostly there to support and not screw up too badly.

 

I'd add the Isles, Yotes, and Stars to that list. Possibly the Canes too, but it's hard to argue that their top 4 (Svechnikov, Tervainen, Hamilton, Aho) aren't top level talent. 

 

To your other point on the coaching experience of this new triumvirate, I think (hope?) the dividends will be more apparent come playoff time.

 

Of course, we have to make the playoffs first... 

[brelic]

1 minute ago, elmatus said:

I'm with you in that it's obvious they're not going to contend with this current group.

 

By "this group," do you include or exclude Patrick and Lindblom.

 

Without them, I agree. Lindblom was having a breakout season, and I can see how his absence has impacted possession. He was a very important player. Patrick is still in development, and it's hard to project what he could become - but his career is currently in limbo.

 

With those guys, I think we can contend. Best case is that Lindblom is cancer-free and in remission by the beginning of next season. A more conservative projection would probably say he'd be back for the 2021-2022 season. With Patrick, it would be fantastic for him as a young man and hockey player if they could get this under control soon and he can participate in at least a handful of games this year. 

 

Meanwhile, the Pens just keep on ticking. If I could obliterate one team from the face of the Earth, the Pens would be it. If I could obliterate two, I'd double-tap the Pens, just because. 

 

 

 

 

[elmatus]

1 minute ago, brelic said:

I'd add the Isles, Yotes, and Stars to that list. Possibly the Canes too, but it's hard to argue that their top 4 (Svechnikov, Tervainen, Hamilton, Aho) aren't top level talent. 

 

 

The Canes have tons of talent imo. The Isles are unique, and I think a lot has to do with coaching in their case.

 

The Stars and Yotes are not contenders. They're bubble at best imo. They may sneak in to the playoffs, but they'll need some sort of miracle to stay relevant once there, and even making the playoffs is hardly a guarantee for either of them.

[elmatus]

25 minutes ago, brelic said:

By "this group," do you include or exclude Patrick and Lindblom.

 

 

At this point, I'm including them. Lindblom is about to start fighting for his life. There's really no telling what the future holds for him as a Flyer. How long does it take to recover from cancer treatment and return to NHL-level hockey player form? Certainly I wouldn't think next Oct is very likely, but I guess anything is possible.

 

Patrick remains an injury prone mid-six guy until he proves otherwise. I think it's very fair to write him off as not being the guy we all hoped we would get. He may have some sort of career in the NHL, if he can find a way to stay healthy for any amount of time, but I highly doubt he'll ever be the kind of elite level talent I was talking about in my previous post. That seems very unlikely.

 

Bottom line, as good as those players are, I really was talking about players who are a cut above that line. Even Lindblom with his break out season would likely cap out at a 60-70 pts, not 90-100. Based on previous play, Patrick might cap out around that same range, but even that would mean him taking a step forward from the 40-50 range he's shown early in his career.

 

If we look at the real contenders in the league right now, we'd have: the Caps (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson), Boston (Pasta, Bergeron, Marchand), the Pens (I don't want to type their names in), Colorado (Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar), Toronto (Tavares, Matthews, Marner), Tampa (Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman).

 

What do we have that compares to that? Giroux, Couts, Provo? I mean, I like all three of those guys, and I do think they can be part of a contender, but those comparisons are pretty... bad.

 

That does leave some unique teams like STL, Nashville, the Isles, and Vegas, who don't really have that superstar level guy either. Maybe the question we should ask is what do those teams have that we don't? Better centers? Better def? More depth? Coaching? Goaltending? STL and the Isles both play very heavy games, but Nashville and Vegas don't really, and none of the real contenders I mentioned above are very hard hitting. Still, is that something to consider for the 2020-21 Flyers? Maybe we should have kept Radko Gudas.

Edited January 6, 2020 by elmatus

[brelic]

10 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

At this point, I'm including them. Lindblom is about to start fighting for his life. There's really no telling what the future holds for him as a Flyer. How long does it take to recover from cancer treatment and return to NHL-level hockey player form? Certainly I wouldn't think next Oct is very likely, but I guess anything is possible.

 

Patrick remains an injury prone mid-six guy until he proves otherwise. I think it's very fair to write him off as not being the guy we all hoped we would get. He may have some sort of career in the NHL, if he can find a way to stay healthy for any amount of time, but I highly doubt he'll ever be the kind of elite level talent I was talking about in my previous post. That seems very unlikely.

 

You never know with something like cancer. Some players have returned very quickly - Kessel comes to mind. And I know there was another player who came back pretty quickly too. So many factors outside of anyone's control, though. 

 

I feel you may be right on Patrick. I'm sure he will at the very least attempt to play at some point. It just wouldn't make sense to give up without giving it a full and thorough attempt which would include competitive games. I'm sad for Patrick (and Oskar and Sam) the person, and also disheartened as a Flyer fan that guys like Patrick, Lindblom, and Morin might just never play hockey again. Those are big blows to the Flyers. 

[elmatus]

2 minutes ago, brelic said:

disheartened as a Flyer fan that guys like Patrick, Lindblom, and Morin might just never play hockey again. Those are big blows to the Flyers. 

 

I'm pretty sure Patrick will make another go. Whether it'll work out better is hard to say, but I don't think he really has the high gear we might hope from a 1-2 overall pick. If it's any consolation, I don't really think Hischier is going to reach that level either. Lindblom I think should play again too. I'm just not sure when or what we'll get when he does.

 

Morin I think is probably done. Even if he does get back on his skates, he's just had too many set backs. I feel like he's probably done.

[brelic]

11 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

I'm pretty sure Patrick will make another go. Whether it'll work out better is hard to say, but I don't think he really has the high gear we might hope from a 1-2 overall pick. If it's any consolation, I don't really think Hischier is going to reach that level either. Lindblom I think should play again too. I'm just not sure when or what we'll get when he does.

 

Morin I think is probably done. Even if he does get back on his skates, he's just had too many set backs. I feel like he's probably done.

 

I'll tell you what - when Lindblom comes back, *that's* the game you and I are flying down for! 

 

Also, the upcoming Flyers SCF games

 

[brelic]

55 minutes ago, elmatus said:

If we look at the real contenders in the league right now, we'd have: the Caps (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson), Boston (Pasta, Bergeron, Marchand), the Pens (I don't want to type their names in), Colorado (Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar), Toronto (Tavares, Matthews, Marner), Tampa (Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman).

 

The beauty is that none of those teams won the Cup last year. STL is killing it this year without Tarasenko. 

 

But, to your point, I agree that those are the primary SC contenders in the league. I'd add Vegas and STL to the list. 

 

Quote

What do we have that compares to that? Giroux, Couts, Provo? I mean, I like all three of those guys, and I do think they can be part of a contender, but those comparisons are pretty... bad.

 

Yup, agreed. We are simply not able to match other teams on individual-level elite talent. 

 

Quote

 

That does leave some unique teams like STL, Nashville, the Isles, and Vegas, who don't really have that superstar level guy either. Maybe the question we should ask is what do those teams have that we don't? Better centers? Better def? More depth? Coaching? Goaltending? STL and the Isles both play very heavy games, but Nashville and Vegas don't really, and none of the real contenders I mentioned above are very hard hitting. Still, is that something to consider for the 2020-21 Flyers? Maybe we should have kept Radko Gudas.

 

Nashville, Isles and Vegas have great coaching. I'd include STL in there, but, you know, Berube. Is he a great coach? Or was he the right coach at the right time (which might even be true of most teams)?

 

I think the Flyers' coaching is on even ground with those teams. 

 

Centers?

 

Nsh - Forsberg (28pts), Duchene (28pts), Johansen (26pts), Turris/Bonino/Jarnkrok.

StL - ROR (38pts), Schwartz (36pts), Schenn (34pts), Bozak (19pts)

VGK - Karlsson (33pts), Marchesseault (31pts), Stastny (19pts), Glass/Nosen/Stephenson/Eakin

 

Phi - Coots (34pts), Hayes (23pts), Raffl (9pts), Vorobyev (3pts).

 

So clearly, our center depth is severely compromised right now.

 

Defense? I don't have time to go through the list, but from what I can remember off the top of my head, Nashville has an elite defense corps, STL has a few top level defensemen, Vegas has Theodore as their top defenseman, but is pretty thin on offense from the blueline after that.

 

I'd say ours is better than Vegas for sure, and has the potential to be among the top 10 league-wide at some point, but they still feel under-developed at this point as a whole. 

 

Goaltending?

 

StL has elite goaltending.

Vegas has mediocre goaltending.

Nashville has atrocious goaltending. 

 

Right now, ours is just not good enough either. 

 

So... weak depth at C and poor goaltending seem to be our weakest points?

 

Oops - totally forgot the Isles. 

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by brelic

[flyer4ever]

The current position in the standings is a little misleading. The high win % at home is against league bottom feeders, for the most part. The end of January will tell the tale, a tough month on the schedule. Overall though, this team is soft. They are not built for the playoffs, if they should make it. Hextalls thirst for skill has left the Flyers light and easy to play against. They give up a huge amount of easy goals against most nights. The talent we are all waiting to develop has probably hit the apex, mid first round picks traditionally aren't top 6 or first pair players, that is the historical reality. I honestly don't project a move up the standings with the current roster and prospects. Fletcher will have to do something creative to get this team to the next level. IMO, Hart, Provorov and Koneckny are the only keepers. 

[Digityman]

12 minutes ago, brelic said:

Centers?

 

Nsh - Forsberg (28pts), Duchene (28pts), Johansen (26pts), Turris/Bonino/Jarnkrok.

StL - ROR (38pts), Schwartz (36pts), Schenn (34pts), Bozak (19pts)

VGK - Karlsson (33pts), Marchesseault (31pts), Stastny (19pts), Glass/Nosen/Stephenson/Eakin

 

Phi - Coots (34pts), Hayes (23pts), Raffl (9pts), Vorobyev (3pts).

 

Unfortunately, with Patrick out that's a glaring hole.  Put a healthy Patrick in there and that puts them up there with those other 3.