The $10M goalie problem?

[radoran]

Saw an interesting discussion on TSN (via YouTube -below) about "the $10M goalie".

 

Basically, with all the steps they have taken to increase scoring the value of the goalie has dropped considerably.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/goalies

 

The two $10M cap hit goalies (Price, Bobrovsky) have 2.87/.907 (Price) and 3.29/.896 (Bob). Their teams are 7 points (MTL) and 1 point (FLA) out of the Wild Card spot.

 

Of the $5M+ goalies, it could be argued that only Rask (2.27/.925) and Hellebuyck (2.57/.923) are putting up strong numbers with Bishop (2.23/.930) at $4.9M coming in just under $5M.

 

Are goalies overvalued in today's game?

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

27 minutes ago, radoran said:

Are goalies overvalued in today's game?

 

As a Flyer fan I would only be able to answer that one way and I'm not sure that would be accurate so I will hold off and answer a year from now...

 

...but it is a very good question.

[ruxpin]

28 minutes ago, radoran said:

Are goalies overvalued in today's game?

 

I'm not sure I have a very good answer to that.   Maybe in some cases.

 

But this is interesting to me.   Including Bishop (because he's close enough), there are 18 goalies paid $5M or more.     15 of them are 29 or older.  12 are 30 or older.  Clearly, GMs were handing out some bloated contracts to people they perceived to be established, solid goalies (how's that working out with Schneider, New Jersey?).

 

But obviously, you can have really good goaltending younger and cheaper.   I don't know.  When you get a younger cheaper who does really well for you, I don't know how you don't pay them and try another spin at the wheel.    But across the league, it seems the younger <$3M are putting up very similar numbers to or better than the $8M 30+ year old.

 

I guess all that to say that probably yes, there should probably be a little bit of a market correction--especially when quite a bunch of those $5M+ goalies simply aren't performing--the fault either on them or their teams (but if it's their teams, why pay $8M for a position so drastically affected by others?).

[radoran]

4 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Clearly, GMs were handing out some bloated contracts to people they perceived to be established, solid goalies (how's that working out with Schneider, New Jersey?).

 

They did OK with Schneider for the firs three years (1.97/.921, 2.26/.925, 2.15/.924) but your point about handing out big contracts is a valid one - Schneider got a 7 year, $42M deal, played well in Y1 and fell off a cliff. Part of that was injury - groin and then hip) and part of it was the Devils being woeful (although his three strong years with them got them zero playoff appearances).

 

Again, sometimes the contract you don't sign the player to is the better option.

 

9 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

When you get a younger cheaper who does really well for you, I don't know how you don't pay them and try another spin at the wheel. 

 

I think the question going forward will be whether or not the "top goalies" in the league are going to be worth comparable money to the players in front of them. They've turned this into a young, goal-scoring league. Paying older goalies big bucks simply doesn't seem to be a successful recipie.

 

What's Holtby going to get on the open market at this point - especially as it seems the Caps are going to go the younger/cheaper/better(?) route with Samsonov.

 

12 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

(but if it's their teams, why pay $8M for a position so drastically affected by others?).

 

I think that's gotten more true as they've worked to restrict things like bigger pads and wings on the shoulders (*cough* Snow *cough*). Add the stricter enforcement of clutch and grab and the inability to really do things like cross-check players in the back in front of the net and the goalie's job just gets harder.

 

GMs are going to need to adjust their thinking. And goalies are going to need to adjust their salary demands.

[mojo1917]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

Are goalies overvalued in today's game?

 

This feels like the end to a Carrie Bradshaw column.

 

8 goalies through the doors of Vorhees last year leads me to believe that goalies are very, very important to a team's success.

Whether the salary of goalies is out of whack for production is maybe the better question to ask. 

Goalies are not overvalued on the ice, a good goalie is the difference between a good and great team, See: Osgood, Chris

A great goalie can hide many organizational deficiencies, See: Price, Carey or Lundquist, Henrick.

 

Having the ability to move on from a high priced veteran depends on who is next. It worked for Pittsburgh with Fluery for Murray, and it did keep the Lightning out of cap hell by being able to let Bishop walk for Vasilevski also Rask replacing Thomas worked pretty well in Boston, but unless the GM knows "the guy" is waiting in the wings, it's either a brave person or a fool moving on from a known quality player at that position. 

 

I don't know what the proper monetary value of a goalie is, if the guy is a goddamned jewel maybe any price is right. How many guys do we really think are 10m players ? only an handful, but a higher percentage per position of them play goal. 

 

[radoran]

2 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

8 goalies through the doors of Vorhees last year leads me to believe that goalies are very, very important to a team's success.

 

Eight goalies is the exception, not the rule (being an all time NHL record). And I think we're seeing that the Flyers in this case remain the bubble team they've been for the past seven years even with a new coach, veteran D, stable goaltender, and 2C. Before they really flopped in March, there were more than a few people who thought they could still make the playoffs despite the goalie carousel.

 

Then, to stay with the Flyers, you have a Finals appearance behind Michael freaking Leighton during a season where they had three goalies start 26+ games.

 

5 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

Whether the salary of goalies is out of whack for production is maybe the better question to ask.

 

Well, that's the "value" part of "overvalued"

 

6 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

A great goalie can hide many organizational deficiencies, See: Price, Carey or Lundquist, Henrick.

 

Carey Price has all of six playoff games in the past four years. Lundqvist has three playoff rounds in the past four as well (and none in the past two).

 

Generally, from where I sit, organizational deficiencies are revealed when it really counts.

 

Osgood is a terrific example of a "good" goalie that the Wings didn't need to pay top dollar to be successful.

 

I just don't see that there are many - if any - goalies that "carry" a team anymore. Would the Habs have been significantly less successful without Price and his one round of playoffs in the past four years than they would have been trading him for assets to develop?

 

They have a 32-year-old Price - at $10.5M - for six more years and - as the video noted - the Habs lost to Detroit three times this year (sitting seven points out of the wild card). Are they going to get better over that time frame? We'll see.

 

8 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

It worked for Pittsburgh with Fluery for Murray, and it did keep the Lightning out of cap hell by being able to let Bishop walk for Vasilevski also Rask replacing Thomas worked pretty well in Boston, but unless the GM knows "the guy" is waiting in the wings, it's either a brave person or a fool moving on from a known quality player at that position. 

 

Clearly the Rags are going to go with Shesterkin over Georgiev as a long term replacement for Henrik and it seems the Caps are looking to move on from Holtby because of Samsonov (he of 15 NHL starts so far).

 

The question - as you note - is how much are these guys really worth? And if you're, say, New Jersey, and make the 7Y, $42M commitment to Schneider who breaks down in Y3 you've got a $6M cap hit for four useless years.

 

Like other positions - if you make a commitment to a player who then declines while preventing you from making upgrades in other areas, that's a long term problem.

 

In the end, the recent results - and the league's focus on increasing scoring - seem to indicate that paying a goalie top dollar doesn't simply return results.

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

Eight goalies is the exception

 

Come on.  You're only saying that because it's never happened before.

[radoran]

Here's a thought.

 

New goalie stats. Regular time GAA and overtime isnt included.

 

Affecting a goalie's stats during a 5 minute 4 on 4 as if the same as a 60 minute 5 on 5 is wrong.

[JR Ewing]

6 hours ago, radoran said:

Here's a thought.

 

New goalie stats. Regular time GAA and overtime isnt included.

 

Affecting a goalie's stats during a 5 minute 4 on 4 as if the same as a 60 minute 5 on 5 is wrong.

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=1000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

[radoran]

3 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=1000&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

 

Some really revealing numbers there.

[JR Ewing]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

 

Some really revealing numbers there.

 

They certainly showed how craptacular Mike Smith has been this year, with the Oilers giving up more goals than expected. That's 3 wins compared to an average NHL goaltender.

 

But really, Martin Jones has been horrible for the Sharks, and has been (by far) the worst starting goalie in the league this year. He's cost them 21 more goals than expected; so about 7 wins. Huge.

 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, JR Ewing said:

But really, Martin Jones has been horrible for the Sharks, and has been (by far) the worst starting goalie in the league this year. He's cost them 21 more goals than expected; so about 7 wins. Huge.

 

I'm looking at Carey Price ($10.5M) who is third in 5v5 Expected Goals Against at 65.32, 16th in 5v5 GAA, and 13th in 5v5 SV%. Price has also given up the third most 5v5 goals in the league at 75, which is +10 on his 5v5 xG.

 

The other $10M goalie, Bobrovsky, is 6th in 5v5 xG (63.03), and has given up a +14 on that number while posting 5v5 3.04/.902.

 

Doesn't seem like the top paid goalies are covering up their "organizational deficiencies."

 

Wish I could get Pekka Rinne's 5v5 numbers on my fantasy squad - 2.16/.927. His 44 goals to 44.02 xG don't look too too bad, either.

 

That said, I don't get any results from this site when trying to look at Power Play numbers...

[JR Ewing]

5 hours ago, radoran said:

 

I'm looking at Carey Price ($10.5M) who is third in 5v5 Expected Goals Against at 65.32, 16th in 5v5 GAA, and 13th in 5v5 SV%. Price has also given up the third most 5v5 goals in the league at 75, which is +10 on his 5v5 xG.

 

The other $10M goalie, Bobrovsky, is 6th in 5v5 xG (63.03), and has given up a +14 on that number while posting 5v5 3.04/.902.

 

Doesn't seem like the top paid goalies are covering up their "organizational deficiencies."

 

Wish I could get Pekka Rinne's 5v5 numbers on my fantasy squad - 2.16/.927. His 44 goals to 44.02 xG don't look too too bad, either.

 

I'm inclined to go with Ken Holland's model in his good years as Detroit GM: if your team is deep, talented, and has the puck most of the time, a "good enough" goaltender will do. Except for some freaks, it seems like

 

a) Goaltender numbers can fluctuate a fair bit from year to year

b) It's really difficult to differentiate the goalie from the defense.

 

 

5 hours ago, radoran said:

That said, I don't get any results from this site when trying to look at Power Play numbers...

 

If you click on "Filter" you can lower the TOI for the goaltenders. I had put it to 1,000 minutes to get rid of the back-ups and guys with a small number of starts.

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by JR Ewing

[radoran]

1 minute ago, JR Ewing said:

 

If you click on "Filter" you can lower the TOI for the goaltenders. I had put it to 1,000 minutes to get rid of the back-ups and guys with a small number of starts.

 

 

What? You mean no goalie has played 1000 minutes of power play?

[Keep Your Stick on the Ice]

“Are goalies overvalued in today's game?”

 

This is a great question in today’s cap-era. I believe they are critical and highly valued in today’s modern fast pace game. However, I do think you have to remember that it’s just a few teams that overpaid their goaltenders. This clearly isn’t the norm throughout the league – these are outliers. I believe due to the stats alone of these goalies means organizations will learn and there won’t be a trend to shell out $8+ million to starting goalies. 

 

I agree with the question of how much a starting goalie is worth and what’s his value? Well I think that clearly depends on the goalie and team. What are the team’s deficiencies? 

 

I think as the league and organizations begin to really switch over to analytics modeling their going to be able to eventually addressed the question of what a goalie’s worth is.