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Ghost to Montreal?


CoachX

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On 2/11/2020 at 3:25 PM, CoachX said:

Shea Weber is hurt. Could be long term. Could we deal Ghost to them? For who?

 

Where are my forum GM's? I want some juicy gossip scenarios

 

The loss of Shea Weber brings Montreal's season to an end. They're going to be in "sell mode" now. They're way behind Florida and Toronto with extra games played. They're not getting to the playoffs this season. 

 

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15 hours ago, King Knut said:

So's Jay Bouwmeester in St. Louis.  Might be his career.  Do we want Schenner back?

Good god man, no.   No more retreads.  🙉

 

11 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The loss of Shea Weber brings Montreal's season to an end. They're going to be in "sell mode" now.

I think a lot of GM's realize this and will be looking over the Hab's roster trying to figure out if there is anything they want/need.

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18 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Especially to a team they are in a dog fight with towards the end of season for a playoff spot.

I would do it as sabotage. 

 

I've given up on Ghost. If someone wants to give up a first for him, where do I sign? 

Edited by ruxpin
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12 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

Ghost isnt that much older and put up better numbers than Larson ever did at that age.  So that trade was made on Larsons potential. There is still the potential for Ghost to bounce back, he does have a certain skillset that some teams need .We have a few choices , we can hold onto him another year and hope he bounces back, then trade him , or leave him for the expansion draft, we have to lose a dman for sure, or package him with other assets at the draft. I cant see anyone giving up much at the deadline and Ghost is still hurt.  They should send him to the minors for conditioning and see if he can get his game and confidence back.

Write this down and memorize it. It may cure the delusion:

 

Ghost is NOT bouncing back as a Flyer. There may be hope that a change of scenery helps him, so that's where maybe you get something decent for him. But what you see is exactly what you'll get as a Flyer. His numbers as a flyer are past tense. Projecting them forward is silliness. 

 

Move him. There are more kids right behind, so just do it. 

 

And for the love of God, NO SCHENN. 

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On 2/13/2020 at 6:59 AM, MaineFlyFan said:

Any chance we can get a competent back-up goalie for him!?.....:NinjaLookLeftRight1:

 

(Sorry....still sour about that goal the other night...)

I'm not sure what you want. I mean, look at the Flyers record since Hart went down. That's at least competent. 

 

It's not Elvis, but that's somewhere above competent. 

 

(by the way, that goal at the end wasn't his fault. It was mine. I turned on the game literally 5 seconds before it. So that one's on me.) 

Edited by ruxpin
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49 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

I would do it as sabotage. 

 

I've given up on Ghost. If someone wants to give up a first for him, where do I sign? 

 

I can see this outlook. And can understand it.

 

And you mat be right but I would prefer to move him away from having to face him so he can score against the Flyers.

 

Just rather not go down that road.

 

So I hold out for a better offer than maybe a late 20th something pick in the first round.

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2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I can see this outlook. And can understand it.

 

And you mat be right but I would prefer to move him away from having to face him so he can score against the Flyers.

 

Just rather not go down that road.

 

So I hold out for a better offer than maybe a late 20th something pick in the first round.

Oh, I agree.   I'm with you on Carolina.  Plus, he'd be an ex-Flyer, so guaranteed to score at least one every single time he plays us.

 

So, send him out west where he'll only score 2 goals a year.

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9 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

And you mat be right but I would prefer to move him away from having to face him so he can score against the Flyers.

 

That strategy never works. Murphy's NHL trade law states that if you move a player to a team in the other conference, that team will move him back to a team within your own division within one year of the original trade. 

 

If you moved Ghost to Calgary/Edmonton/Vancouver let's say, Cal/Edm/Van will ride out the season with him and then bounce him right back over the summer and you'll be seeing Ghost in Columbus next season, or New York, or Pittsburgh. I promise you. 

 

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13 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

That strategy never works. Murphy's NHL trade law states that if you move a player to a team in the other conference, that team will move him back to a team within your own division within one year of the original trade. 

 

If you moved Ghost to Calgary/Edmonton/Vancouver let's say, Cal/Edm/Van will ride out the season with him and then bounce him right back over the summer and you'll be seeing Ghost in Columbus next season, or New York, or Pittsburgh. I promise you. 

 

 

That's fine by me all I can control is what I can control....after I move him out West it's out my hands.

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16 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Oh, I agree.   I'm with you on Carolina.  Plus, he's be an ex-Flyer, so guaranteed to score at least one every single time he plays us.

 

So, send him out west where he'll only score 2 goals a year.

 

Yeah maybe you could move him to somewhere like LA who is rebuilding.

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I've thought this before, but part of me would be curious to see if boards for other teams exhibit the same type of bias as I worry many of us (myself included) can tend towards here. I feel we have a habit of overvaluing or undervaluing players based on our own emotional responses to the team, and it does seem to cloud any real objective judgement we might pose.

 

The best examples of this for me have to be Ghost and Giroux. I think some of us are severely overvaluing Ghost both as a player and in terms of what he might bring home in a trade (and undervaluing Giroux). Why do we do this? Well, Ghost has had a couple good offensive seasons. That's enough for us to largely ignore some of his glaring flaws. 

 

His rookie season was phenomenal, but so many of those pts were racked up on the PP. And since that season, he's been mostly a fixture on the PP (aside from just this year), and our PP has been occasionally decent and often laughable with him on it. If I'm a GM looking at that, I would say that he has PP QB potential, but that he's just not consistent enough to be a sure thing. If getting a PP QB is what my team needs, I would keep him in mind and check to see what other boxes he checks off.

 

He had a solid 17-18 season. What happened that year that may have helped him stand out? I don't know. Giroux went beast mode in a fight vs Connor McJesus for the scoring lead, so that likely helped. Provorov also played like the best overall Flyers dman since Pronger, which doesn't hurt (especially since they were partners most of the time). But at the end of the day, Ghost remained a severely flawed player defensively, with Provo bailing him out every game to a point where really the star here has to be Provo and his ability to make up for his partner's flaws.

 

Either way, what this tells me is that Ghost can be offensively good, but he's typically not the catalyst. He needs other players around him who are gifted and playing well, in order to raise his game to a higher level offensively. It also suggests that doing so often exposes him to even more defensive gaffes, enough so that coaches have felt the need to tame his riskier on-ice tendencies, because that just gets the team in more trouble than it's worth a lot of the time.

 

Aside from that, he has three seasons now of meh offensive play, and he remains a significant defensive liability always. So again, if I'm a GM, I would see him as having good offensive potential, but as a player that will need babysitting from a more well-rounded and defensive partner. That's not impossible to work with, but it does come with a set of important challenges when it comes to trade value.

 

What is that worth, and what kinds of teams would want him? Well, age is a big factor in today's NHL, with a youth movement in full effect, seemingly dropping the prime age from what used to be 26-27 to what is now more like 23-24. Ghost at 27 this year would be seen as a finished product, unlikely to develop much more in the coming years. So GMs would figure they know what they're getting into with him.

 

At that age and given his narrow skillset, I would suggest a team that is playoff-bound and is in particular need of a powerplay QB. Desperate enough that a GM would be willing to overlook the last couple seasons and trade for Ghost on the value of his couple good years (especially his rookie season *five* years ago). 

 

So what playoff-bound or at least playoff-potential teams could use an injection on the PP? Columbus, Us(!), Islanders, Avalanche, The Pens. These are teams with a 65+ pts and under 20% conversion on the PP, which I would say is a fair metric given how late in the season we are. We can eliminate the Pens and probably both the Isles and Jackets (we're unlikely to trade Ghost to an inter-divisional rival at the trade deadline, though maybe in the off-season). So we're looking at possibly the Avalanche as maybe our best bet. If we're going to talk possible trades, we may want to start there.

 

A shorter metric here is probably a better one: If we're sitting here actively trying our best to shop him around to almost anyone listening, it's unlikely he carries all that much trade value. If what we want is a return that can really change the current team dynamic, that's likely to mean trading a player we don't really want to trade. If we're reluctant to trade a guy, it's probably because he offers something especially valuable. Those are the guys teams will shell out for, not the guy we've been tossing around aimlessly for two years now.

 

The other option of course is Seattle picking him up in the upcoming draft, which may really be the most likely outcome at this point.

Edited by elmatus
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2 hours ago, ruxpin said:

(by the way, that goal at the end wasn't his fault. It was mine. I turn on the game literally 5 seconds before it. So that one's on me.) 

 

Pretty sure the Devils game was because I kept him on my NAHANA team...

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2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

That's fine by me all I can control is what I can control....after I move him out West it's out my hands.

 

True. All I'm saying is make the best trade you can make, regardless of where you send him to. Don't take less in a trade just to move him out West (and avoid trading with a division rival) because he'll be back in your division again scoring points against the Flyers on a nightly basis no matter where you trade him.

 

You can't get rid of players in this league. They're boomerangs. Best you can do is make darn sure the player has no value/potential before moving him or you experience the ex-Leafs affect where former players visit your team and put up career best numbers against you on a regular basis and win Stanley Cups elsewhere (Kessel, Bozak, Steen, etc.).  :)

 

Side note: You guys would have won a Stanley Cup with JVR if not for the fact that you traded him to Toronto originally. If JVR had been a Toronto product originally, then us sending him to you would have started your Stanley Cup dynasty. ;) 

 

... Which lends credence to my earlier trade offer that you should grab Kapanen or Nylander from Toronto. The sooner you grab Kapanen, the sooner he can blossom into a 50-goal scorer and challenge Ovechkin's streak of consecutive 50+ goal seasons. ;) 

 

Edited by WordsOfWisdom
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5 hours ago, Digityman said:

Good god man, no.   No more retreads.  🙉

 

 

Well strap in tight because apparently these Jeff Carter rumors won't go away. 

 

Jay Bow's contract is up at the end of the season anyway, so St. Louis may just be happy to hold out and make due until Free Agency.  I didn't bother looking, but Schenner's got a new contract from that that starts next year and goes to the end of time, so he's right out.  Otherwise, I'd be happy to have him back considering we have no idea what the hell will happen with Patrick.

 

5 hours ago, Digityman said:

I think a lot of GM's realize this and will be looking over the Hab's roster trying to figure out if there is anything they want/need.

 

A lot of GMs will be looking at Ghost too.

 

34 minutes ago, mkscrewy said:

Carter still would have missed the GW goal in game 6.

 

It still hurts me too... but the guy was playing on two broken feet.  I'm not going to hang him for it.  At least he told the trainers and the coach (unlike Leaky Leighton who just played with a slipped disc and didn't tell anyone)

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48 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

If Emery didn't go down with an injury I think they would have won the Cup in 2010.

 

I agree with this, but I'd even go as far as to say that if any of our goalies hadn't gone down with injuries, we would have won the cup.

 

Remember, Boucher got hurt during the Boston series and Leighton got hurt (apparently) in game one of the finals.  Laviolette was juggling injured goalies through the finals.  and it showed.  

 

People act like the Blackhawks were just far and away the superior team because of Kane and Toews and Keith, but in the end, Niemi, as mediocre as he was, was healthy and made the saves.

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44 minutes ago, mkscrewy said:

Carter still would have missed the GW goal in game 6.

it's not like we were one goal away from winning the cup, we still had to go back to chicago which we couldnt win there to begin with, we probably still would have lost, this team was out of gas.

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53 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

If Emery didn't go down with an injury I think they would have won the Cup in 2010.

 

The Blackhawks were a vastly superior team that year, but I went back and looked at that season (long since forgotten for Leafs fans since we finished dead last in the East) but your playoff opponent got easier with each passing round until you ran into Chicago.

 

New Jersey (hard)

Boston (medium)

Montreal (easier)

Chicago (hard)

 

Chicago was better in everything that year. It would have been an upset if the Flyers had won that year.  :) 

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1 hour ago, CoachX said:

If Carolina is offering a number 1, and its been decided that Ghost will be moved,  I take that trade

 

I'd consider this, especially if the Blue Jackets continue to slide without Jones.

We'll see as we have a home and home against them next week that will pretty much decide their fate and possibly ours.

 

If the Flyers can't rebound and take 3 of the next 4 games, they may have to start considering selling what they can.

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10 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

The Blackhawks were a vastly superior team that year, but I went back and looked at that season (long since forgotten for Leafs fans since we finished dead last in the East) but your playoff opponent got easier with each passing round until you ran into Chicago.

 

New Jersey (hard)

Boston (medium)

Montreal (easier)

Chicago (hard)

 

Chicago was better in everything that year. It would have been an upset if the Flyers had won that year.  :) 

 

I don't think anyone was saying this at the beginning of the season.  

 

In hindsight it looks like that because of what the Hawks did, but they hadn't done it yet.  

That Flyers team was EXTREMELY strong going into the season.  They had a ton of trouble early (likely because Pronger didn't like Stevens) and gelled around Christmas. a few weeks after Lavvy came in.

 

Looking at the finals they were fairly evenly matched.

 

Yes, The Hawks top line was much more skilled, but the FLyers were deeper at forward (and it showed).  They were also likely better on Defense but their top guys were also older and that showed by game 6 as well.  

 

In the end, I think it's pretty clear that it came down to the goalies.  None of them were good, but Niemi managed to save a few more of the easy ones than either Boosh or Leighton did... probably because Boosh and Leighton were both playing hurt (though no one knew Leighton was hurt at the time... he didn't admit it until it was over).

 

The blackhawks took off and only got better from there and the Flyers fell apart internally until their GM decided to lose his mind and ruined the team while simultaneously putting them in unescapable cap hell.  

 

The Blackhawks did the same, but they won a bunch of cups for their efforts.  

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