Minnesota Wild @ Detroit Red Wings, Thursday 2-27-20, 6:00pm, Little Caesar's Arena

[IllaZilla]

On 2/28/2020 at 7:25 AM, Icechipper said:

So, after watching the Red Wings chase the Wild all over the rink, do you still really, really want to dismantle and start a rebuild? Just sayin......

Well, that’s the $64,000 question, isn’t it? The Wild’s plan of building around Parise, Suter and Koivu has yielded, what, two playoff series wins since the Parise and Suter signings.

If people are satisfied with the way the team is being built then leave it alone. Keep signing older veterans to make the core of the team and use cheaper, rookie players to fill in the gaps.

Or you bite the bullet, get rid of everyone over 30 and build with a young squad. Sure, it’s going to be painful for a couple of seasons. But you could end up with something like the Twins did last season. A bunch of talented hungry young players lighting the league up. 
I don’t know what the right answer is. All I know is that the Wild’s way of building around Parise, Suter and Koivu hasn’t done what they thought it would do. 

[4Check]

1 hour ago, IllaZilla said:

Well, that’s the $64,000 question, isn’t it? The Wild’s plan of building around Parise, Suter and Koivu has yielded, what, two playoff series wins since the Parise and Suter signings.

If people are satisfied with the way the team is being built then leave it alone. Keep signing older veterans to make the core of the team and use cheaper, rookie players to fill in the gaps.

Or you bite the bullet, get rid of everyone over 30 and build with a young squad. Sure, it’s going to be painful for a couple of seasons. But you could end up with something like the Twins did last season. A bunch of talented hungry young players lighting the league up. 
I don’t know what the right answer is. All I know is that the Wild’s way of building around Parise, Suter and Koivu hasn’t done what they thought it would do. 

IMO, Guerin has to trade, buyout or not renew at least 6 of the 8 bad and/or older player contracts by July 1, 2021.   IMO, it is very doable.

Koivu retire

Parise  renew trade efforts

Zucarello agree to pay up to 1/2 his contract in a trade or buy him out.

Staal  trade or don't renew 7/1/21

Rask buyout

Dubnyk don't renew  7/1/21 (possible buyout candidate if Zucc can't be traded

 

I assume Suter and Spurg will not/ or can't be moved.  (BTW IMO Spurg a bad contract only because of the term)

[IllaZilla]

20 hours ago, 4Check said:

IMO, Guerin has to trade, buyout or not renew at least 6 of the 8 bad and/or older player contracts by July 1, 2021.   IMO, it is very doable.

Koivu retire

Parise  renew trade efforts

Zucarello agree to pay up to 1/2 his contract in a trade or buy him out.

Staal  trade or don't renew 7/1/21

Rask buyout

Dubnyk don't renew  7/1/21 (possible buyout candidate if Zucc can't be traded

 

I assume Suter and Spurg will not/ or can't be moved.  (BTW IMO Spurg a bad contract only because of the term)

Some things to consider with this scenario:

Wild are losing 3 centers (Koivu, Staal, Rask) so they will need to replace them. Maybe Galchenyuk can take one of their spots, but I’m not sure what he’s worth. He’s making $5M/season now, but is not worth that IMO. The only other center the Wild has in the system is Nico Sturm and he is not a 1C or 2C. So they are going to have to at least trade for one and/or go the UFA route which leads to Zuccarello-type deals. 

Zuccarello’s buyout would be for 8 years at $1.4M/season. That’s a long time for that much dead money. 
Rask’s buyout would be for 4 years at $1.3M/season.

If the Wild buyout Zuccarello and Rask, they will have $2.7M in dead money on the cap for the next four seasons. 

If Parise gets traded, the Wild most certainly will have to take back a bad contract like Andrew Ladd’s ($5.5M/season for 3 years for a guy who couldn’t outskate a high schooler). And if the Wild buys out Ladd, his buyout will be over 6 seasons and the cap hit would be $4.8M for the first three seasons and then $333K for the last three seasons. So if they buyout Zuccarello, Rask, and Ladd, there will be $7.5M in dead money on the cap for the next three seasons. 

I’m not disagreeing with you. I think the Wild have painted themselves into a corner giving all these 30-somethings multiple year deals with NTC/NMCs. That and the fact that the young guys on the roster right now are mostly complementary pieces, there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Yes, the Wild aren’t as terrible as the Red Wings. But no one thinks this team is going to do anything once they reach the Playoffs (if they reach the Playoffs). Guerin does need to move some of these bloated contracts. How he does that is going to be interesting. 

 

[4Check]

11 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

Some things to consider with this scenario:

Wild are losing 3 centers (Koivu, Staal, Rask) so they will need to replace them. Maybe Galchenyuk can take one of their spots, but I’m not sure what he’s worth. He’s making $5M/season now, but is not worth that IMO. The only other center the Wild has in the system is Nico Sturm and he is not a 1C or 2C. So they are going to have to at least trade for one and/or go the UFA route which leads to Zuccarello-type deals. 

Zuccarello’s buyout would be for 8 years at $1.4M/season. That’s a long time for that much dead money. 
Rask’s buyout would be for 4 years at $1.3M/season.

If the Wild buyout Zuccarello and Rask, they will have $2.7M in dead money on the cap for the next four seasons. 

If Parise gets traded, the Wild most certainly will have to take back a bad contract like Andrew Ladd’s ($5.5M/season for 3 years for a guy who couldn’t outskate a high schooler). And if the Wild buys out Ladd, his buyout will be over 6 seasons and the cap hit would be $4.8M for the first three seasons and then $333K for the last three seasons. So if they buyout Zuccarello, Rask, and Ladd, there will be $7.5M in dead money on the cap for the next three seasons. 

I’m not disagreeing with you. I think the Wild have painted themselves into a corner giving all these 30-somethings multiple year deals with NTC/NMCs. That and the fact that the young guys on the roster right now are mostly complementary pieces, there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Yes, the Wild aren’t as terrible as the Red Wings. But no one thinks this team is going to do anything once they reach the Playoffs (if they reach the Playoffs). Guerin does need to move some of these bloated contracts. How he does that is going to be interesting. 

 

Good assessment in your post on the realities of buyouts.

Couple of thoughts.  1) The scenario  I suggested is over the next 16 months.   So, if the Wild can't find a #1 and #2 center this summer (IMO highly unlikely) they have Staal for at least one more year.  Considering Guerin readily admits that Center is a major Wild weakness, I'd be shocked if he didn't acquire at least one.   So,  IMO,  Staal,  legit #2 newcomer, JEE and Sturm would be a solid start to improving their obvious weakness.   2)  IMO, 7.5M in dead money over the next three years is a necessary evil to transition out of being the second oldest team in the NHL.    IMO, the Wild are AT LEAST three years from being a cup contender.  So with the transition to younger players, who typically  (but not always) make less money, should facilitate that challenge.