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RonJeremy

One thing that the Flyers lack compared to our division rivals

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4 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

If the playoffs started today we could beat the Pens, they're a mess.  

 

True, but it's still the Pens, and they just seem to be a bad matchup for the Flyers. But no other matchup would give me more satisfaction to win :) I love me some good Battle of Pennsylvania action.

 

TB has enough depth to overcome Stamkos, I think. Their biggest issue might be entitlement - the *expectation* that they *should* win.

 

I want no part of the Trotzlanders lol. They give us fits. I honestly think that would be the worst matchup for the Flyers. 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Clarke2Leach said:

The Jets were actually struggling heading into the playoffs last year and still almost beat the hottest team (and eventual Champs). 

 

I misremembered, they were a .500 team down the stretch.

 

But they lost 4-2 to the Blues and were 0-3 on home ice.

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21 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

 

If the playoffs started today we could beat the Pens, they're a mess.  

I wonder how big an impact of zero Slewfoot Stamkos has on TBL.

The Islanders, have won all three games vs the Flyers and the last two I have no idea what the hell happened for those results...and I watched the games. I would be concerned if the Flyers drew the Islanders, that team is not going to win ****, but they do seem to know how to beat the Flyers. 

 

You really never know how teams are going to do under playoff pressure until they are under playoff pressure.

 

Look no further than last year's Lightning squad. And this year, that could be a good thing for them or a bad thing for them.

 

Make the playoffs and then go game-by-game, round-by-round. There are no shortcuts.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

I think the superstar needs to be transcendent for his team to beat the team with better quality 1-23.

I'm not sure if hockey is a stong-link sport the way basketball is because the best forwards are on the ice for 1/4 to 1/3 of the game.

The best defensmen for 5/16 to 1/2.

I think hockey is more of a weak-link sport like soccer. 

 

It is true the Flyers don't have a game breaker in the Matthew Barzal sense but when he's not on the ice the rest of that team is pretty meh-  

The Flyers have a 30 goal scorer on their 3rd line...I don't know if I buy into the thought process where a generational talent is needed to win. I think it makes some things easier, but I know McDavid hasn't won anything doing it alone and Crosby and Malkin have always needed that +3rd line centerman (Staal and Bonino) to win. 

 

 

Im just saying that, with our team and a high  end game breaker like Stamkos, Paneran, etc in our lineup, we would be alot more of a dangerous . What sets us apart from Tampa? Stamkos and Hedman, other than that we are close. In the past Crosby killed us constantly,  he was usually the deciding factor even if we shut him down for 90% of the game, he somehow would beat us. We have great balance, but having a ringer puts you into a into a whole other level.  Of course having a superstar and big holes in the lineup like Edmomton is not gonna get you a Cup. Im just saying that when it comes to teams that are close in talent are playing its nice to have that one guy who can score out of nowhere and end a game.

 

On 3/1/2020 at 7:03 AM, Digityman said:

I like that you have high hopes for these guys because so do I.  However, unless everyone is wrong about their ceiling they aren't Crosby, Malkin, OV, Barzal.... level that you are describing.   I think we had one fall into our laps last draft in we passed on the little guy.   

 

A few teams in the past have proved that you don't need a huge star to win the cup.  

Yeah., I dont believe they are gonna be at the level of OV,  Crosby etc, but they probably have the best puck skills of all our players, especially Frost. Im hoping he can be that highly skilled , dangler who can go end to end and who's playmaking ability makes his linemates better. A combination playmaker and goal scorer a player who gets the fans out of their seats when he has the puck.

Edited by RonJeremy

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@brelic

I think when Dumoulin and Marino get back the Pens will start to play differently and better.

They have 20 games to get their act together.  Maybe they do, on paper they are scary,  so far it hasn't translated to the ice.

Sheary hasn't found his chemistry with Crosby yet but Zucker was starting to pick it up. 

 I'm not sold on centerman #3 and I think that has always been the key to their success. 

 

They have some rugged and fast players and that travels well...I'm not counting them out of anything until they've lost 4 of 7.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, brelic said:

 

I can only speak for myself, but what I take from that statement is along the lines of, FINALLY, we realistically have a shot at the Cup. Probably not gonna happen this year - usually teams go through a deep run or two, go through the learning curve (so many young guys), and the bitter disappointment of losing.

 

But we CAN win the Cup, which we haven't been able to say for way too long.

 

 

According to 

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, as of March 2, not only do the Flyers have a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs … they have a 12.7 percent chance of winning the whole thing.

 

 

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Just saying....where is the gambling man when you need him he must have double parked the Lumina...

 

 

 

Edited by OccamsRazor
#haveamartinionme
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3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

the Flyers have a 99.9 percent chance of making the playoffs

 

Fukcing Reported man!

 

3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

they have a 12.7 percent chance of winning the whole thing

 

Dare to dream, love you man!

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3 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

Fukcing Reported man!

 

 

Dare to dream, love you man!

 

Hey i'm just the messenger i didn't write the article or come up with the odds.

 

Wish i was smart like Rick knew how the Flyers got such good odds.

 

50-percent-more-nhl-playoff-odds-chart.p

 

 

Love the Grateful dead like diagram.

 

View image on Twitter

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20 hours ago, brelic said:

 

I can only speak for myself, but what I take from that statement is along the lines of, FINALLY, we realistically have a shot at the Cup. Probably not gonna happen this year - usually teams go through a deep run or two, go through the learning curve (so many young guys), and the bitter disappointment of losing.

 

But we CAN win the Cup, which we haven't been able to say for way too long.

Thanks for letting me not feel alone in having hope. I don't know that I would ever call Thompson and Grant Game changers but they definitely add experience and depth to help in the drawn out marathon that is a push to/for the cup. Definitely need to protect and not over play Hart through the rest of the season. I don't want to see him playing back to backs even though it gives them the best chance of winning. Elliott is due for a decent game again after his last couple of gaffes anyhow.

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11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Wish i was smart like Rick knew how the Flyers got such good odds.

 

Apparently Moneypuck runs 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season based on, well... some model they put together or something...

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Essentially if a team is playing really well at a given point, their odds go up. Flyers also have nine home games (8 road) and have two games against Buffalo, one each against the Dead Wings, Rangers, and Devils. Also two against the 72-point Preds.

 

They've done what they needed to do to put themselves into a good playoff position.

 

Now they just have to achieve in the playoffs. 12.7% is still just one in eight.

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1 minute ago, flyerrod said:

Definitely need to protect and not over play Hart through the rest of the season. I don't want to see him playing back to backs even though it gives them the best chance of winning.

 

Looks like 17 games in 32 days with three B2Bs and Carolina and two Nashville on the back end.

 

Hackstol would have run Hart into the ground. I don't think AV is that dumb.

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18 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Apparently Moneypuck runs 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season based on, well... some model they put together or something...

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Essentially if a team is playing really well at a given point, their odds go up. Flyers also have nine home games (8 road) and have two games against Buffalo, one each against the Dead Wings, Rangers, and Devils. Also two against the 72-point Preds.

 

They've done what they needed to do to put themselves into a good playoff position.

 

Now they just have to achieve in the playoffs. 12.7% is still just one in eight.

 

All you need is a chance.

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16 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

All you need is a chance.

 

 

achance.jpeg

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On 2/29/2020 at 7:08 PM, RonJeremy said:

As a  total team I think we are better than the Isles, Rangers and Penguins,  but probably not Washington . We have proven we can beat the best teams in a regular season game,but the thing that worries me heading into the playoffs is,  these teams all have a high end ringer on their team that’s can singlehandedly take the puck need to end and beat you. Ovechkin, Crosby, Barzal and Panerin are all guys that can win games with big plays. I can’t count how many times has Crosby beaten us by himself. Even if you shutdown the other players ,these kind of guys have that ability to change or win the game in a flash. We have a solid , balanced lineup, but we just don’t have that game changing , highly skilled offensive stalwart that is a constant threat to make one explosive play and end someone’s season. I hope that Frost or Farabee can become something close to that.

 

The thing about having a big weapon is that you can shut him down and if you shut him down, you cripple them.  

 

The Flyers are proving they have depth and that all of their lines are capable and three of them are dangerous.

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7 hours ago, radoran said:

 

Looks like 17 games in 32 days with three B2Bs and Carolina and two Nashville on the back end.

 

Hackstol would have run Hart into the ground. I don't think AV is that dumb.

 

He's starting Elliott against the caps and likely for exactly this reason.  Give Hart a few in a row including an away game against an easier team to help him shake his road head games.  

 

Give the more seasoned vet the big team.  If they lose, at least it's not another away  loss in Hart's head.

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7 minutes ago, King Knut said:

The Flyers are proving they have depth and that all of their lines are capable and three of them are dangerous.

 

They are looking very good right now. The cautionary bit is that Giroux, Voracek, JVR, and Hayes haven't been strong playoff performers in the past 5-7 years (in some cases for the "one line" reason you mention), and the kids don't have a ton of playoff experience.

 

It's not that they can't do it, but they still gotta do it.

:5a6425fa25331_VikingSkoool:

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4 minutes ago, radoran said:

The cautionary bit is that Giroux, Voracek, JVR, and Hayes haven't been strong playoff performers in the past 5-7 years

 

 

I feel like the one line thing has been the case.  They haven't had much more than one line since 2013 and even then it was a bit sketchy. I think there's legs to this.

 

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

It's not that they can't do it, but they still gotta do it.

:5a6425fa25331_VikingSkoool:

 

There's the rub!  All I'm saying is that I'm not exactly on board with this perspective that Jake and G and JVR aren't any good in the playoffs.  We'll see what happens.  

 

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

It's not that they can't do it, but they still gotta do it.

:5a6425fa25331_VikingSkoool:

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43 minutes ago, King Knut said:

All I'm saying is that I'm not exactly on board with this perspective that Jake and G and JVR aren't any good in the playoffs. 

 

It's not perspective, it's statistics.

 

Voracek: 19 points (five goals) in 34 career playoff games. 8 in past 19.

 

Giroux: 65 points in 69 career playoff games. 10 in past 19 (3 goals).

 

JVR: 29 points in 59 career playoff games. 7 in past 13.

 

Hayes: 13 points in 40 career playoff games. 3 in 6 last season.

 

Giroux had 21 in 23 when he wasn't the focal point in 2010. 17 in 10 in 2012 but just 3 in the Devils series they lost 4-1. 6 in the 7 game "good sign" loss to the Rangers in 2014. 4 in 12 since.

 

From where I sit, these guys all should have something to prove. That doesn't have to be a bad thing.

 

Go prove it.

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The way the Flyers are playing now and seem to be incrementally improving, I think they can beat the Isles.

In regards to the playoffs. We have addition by addition, this season we have Playoff players that are contributing now and know how to play in the playoffs. That's why Fletcher reloaded more depth players with playoff experience, not just fluff players with pretty, fancy stats.

 

Potential game changers:

G. (trending)

Coots.(1/2 broken body able to compete in the playoffs in the past)

Jake (trending)

TK.

JVR(If light comes on ala' Angry Coburn)

***Hayes***(WorldStar "Hey Hollywood" ShotCaller)

N.AK ----gunner

Game changer Help is on the way:  Lauts, Pitter, Grant, Raffl and last but in first place Farabee.

And we haven't hit up or League Leading Defensive goal scoring squad.

em' Nisky, Provy, Sanny, Myry, Ghosty and below bunker secret weapon Braun and Hagg.(TBD)

 

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, radoran said:

 

It's not perspective, it's statistics.

 

Voracek: 19 points (five goals) in 34 career playoff games. 8 in past 19.

 

Giroux: 65 points in 69 career playoff games. 10 in past 19 (3 goals).

 

JVR: 29 points in 59 career playoff games. 7 in past 13.

 

Hayes: 13 points in 40 career playoff games. 3 in 6 last season.

 

Giroux had 21 in 23 when he wasn't the focal point in 2010. 17 in 10 in 2012 but just 3 in the Devils series they lost 4-1. 6 in the 7 game "good sign" loss to the Rangers in 2014. 4 in 12 since.

 

From where I sit, these guys all should have something to prove. That doesn't have to be a bad thing.

 

Go prove it.

 

Only our president can deny stats and facts.

Great post.

Edited by Digityman
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Outside looking in, the number one thing the rivals from the leagues toughest Division by far have that the Flyers do not:

 

EXPERIENCE

 

 The Caps and Pens had cup runs, the Isles swept the Pens and the CBJ swept the Lightning in the first round last year before bowing out.  Carolina went to the Conference finals even. 

 

  The Flyers have not been out of the first round since, if I am not mistaken 2012 so eight years which is a lifetime in terms of a franchise in regards to turnover.Of the current roster, Niskanen won a cup, Hayes went to a Cup finals, so did Braun, aaaand I think that is it. 

 

  This is a very talented roster, a team that could make a run but with very little postseason success to calm them if they lose two in a row at home (as Washington did in the first round in their cup winning season before rebounding) it may be the blind leading the blind come playoff time.The test is when they face adversity, will they crumple and fold and while I like the composition of the roster I worry over how well they will react when, not if they lose a couple in a row or get screwed by an official in a game or one of a dozen other scenarios. They just dont have many players in the locker room who can say, "calm down, I have faced this before and we won anyway."

 

 My two cents.

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11 minutes ago, yave1964 said:

Outside looking in, the number one thing the rivals from the leagues toughest Division by far have that the Flyers do not:

 

EXPERIENCE

 

 The Caps and Pens had cup runs, the Isles swept the Pens and the CBJ swept the Lightning in the first round last year before bowing out.  Carolina went to the Conference finals even. 

 

  The Flyers have not been out of the first round since, if I am not mistaken 2012 so eight years which is a lifetime in terms of a franchise in regards to turnover.Of the current roster, Niskanen won a cup, Hayes went to a Cup finals, so did Braun, aaaand I think that is it. 

 

  This is a very talented roster, a team that could make a run but with very little postseason success to calm them if they lose two in a row at home (as Washington did in the first round in their cup winning season before rebounding) it may be the blind leading the blind come playoff time.The test is when they face adversity, will they crumple and fold and while I like the composition of the roster I worry over how well they will react when, not if they lose a couple in a row or get screwed by an official in a game or one of a dozen other scenarios. They just dont have many players in the locker room who can say, "calm down, I have faced this before and we won anyway."

 

 My two cents.

 

All true. When I think of the things that can possibly overcome this inexperience, if any, it's the strength of the  bonds withing that room and the willingness to die for the guy beside you. I don't know if they have that in the room or not.

 

Their current play suggests a tight team of 20 guys pulling in the same direction, along with a coach that they seem to also want to play for. Not sure if that's enough, but it's all we got. We shall see. 

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I don't really feel the need to start a new thread. This article was a fun read for those of us who like having numbers attached to things we see. Note it largely boils down to (almost) everyone just playing better, including both our returning players and the new adds. Still, numbers!

 

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3 hours ago, elmatus said:

I don't really feel the need to start a new thread. This article was a fun read for those of us who like having numbers attached to things we see. Note it largely boils down to (almost) everyone just playing better, including both our returning players and the new adds. Still, numbers!

 

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I still think the Flyers will need a better backup option than Elliott.

 

Has he played better yeah but still isn't as reliable as they need.

 

But his 899% is not up to my standards of what i think they should be getting from a team in the 2nd spot in the Metro.

 

I sure hope Chuckles play on going in another direction at the end of the season. High expectations.

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30 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

I sure hope Chuckles play on going in another direction at the end of the season. High expectations.

 

Hard to say. It'll likely be a question of who is available that fits the bill.

 

Regardless, an article like that -- not to mention the simple eye test of those of us paying attention -- signals to me how amazingly impactful the coaching change has been. Don't get me wrong, the adds are a great boost, but I still think bringing in some quality and experienced NHL-level coaches is by far the biggest difference maker for this season.

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