Season suspended

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, CoachX said:

based on the article, the pct points idea sounds fair.

 

if not that, I would think they set a format where all teams play the same number of games. If you take this route, how do you accomplish this? Do you just have the team with a lower number of games played finish up while the other teams just sit and wait? im not sure that is fair because it would be like giving those teams tune up games going into the playoffs. but then again, these could be crucial games that knock them out of the PO picture,making it a moot point.

Plus, you'd have to have only teams that haven't hit 72  play each other.  Then you still don't have even up opponents. 

 

The warm up thing is more troubling.  But I guess none of it is ideal so go with whatever. 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, Podein25 said:

 

When the curve flattens. Two pictures for you: Italy vs South Korea below. Very different trajectories. South Korea appears to have it under control, Italy does not. Stories coming out of Italy, at the hospital level, are not good. They recorded 250+ more deaths today. There will be more, lots more. 

 

 

Wow.

 

I wonder what North Korea's numbers look like you know Dickhead don't care one bit about his people.

[Special guest speaker]

Which dickhead? Trump or Kim jerk un (or whatever the phuck?)

[Special guest speaker]

I understand why they suspended the season!! But damn it couldn't have happened at a worse time, the the best time of the season, the push for the playoffs.... I will be lost for a while, jonesin' for hockey to restart.... Damn virus!!! 

[Special guest speaker]

I guess I will have to dig out the old flyers videos for now... Blood sweat and tears... Vintage hockey fights, bone crushing checks

[OccamsRazor]

35 minutes ago, Special guest speaker said:

Which dickhead? Trump or Kim jerk un (or whatever the phuck?)

 

Good point i guess i should have specified...Kim Jung Dumb.

[WordsOfWisdom]

For those who want the sobering numbers, I crunched them:  (Since I don't have any hockey stats to crunch.)

 

Here are the figures:

 

132,913 cases

4,965 deaths

69,847 recovered

 

That's what the site gives.... but more important is what they don't give. (See below.)

 

If there are 132,913 cases reported and 69,847 have recovered, that means 132,913 - 69,847 = 63,066 have NOT recovered.

 

Of those, 63,066 - 4,965 = 58,101 are currently INFECTED by the virus but they haven't reached an outcome yet, so we don't know whether they will live or die. That means we need to EXCLUDE the group of 58,101 people who are still alive but battling the virus right now. (Their story hasn't been written yet so to speak.)

 

That means that out of all the Coronavirus cases that have run to conclusion (where we know the final outcome) we have 4,965 deaths out of: 4,965 + 69,847 = 74,812 people.

 

Thus, the virus is killing 4,965 / 74,812 ~= 0.066 or roughly 6.6% of those people infected.

[OccamsRazor]

21 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Thus, the virus is killing 4,965 / 74,812 ~= 0.066 or roughly 6.6% of those people infected.

 

So is that high or normal to some new outbreak i don't know this i was hoping you did.

 

I hope that isn't what happened to @Hockey Junkie and i am not making a joke i know he is older than i and i'm 48.

[intheslot]

[AlaskaFlyerFan]

Those percentage numbers are deceiving because you are not counting the people that are still infected but not dead or dying.  NOT ACCURATE.

 

EDIT:  Those numbers don’t include people that are or were infected and have not been tested or diagnosed.

Edited March 13, 2020 by AlaskaFlyerFan

[Podein25]

57 minutes ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

EDIT:  Those numbers don’t include people that are or were infected and have not been tested or diagnosed.

 

Classic case of known unknowns.

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

So is that high or normal to some new outbreak i don't know this i was hoping you did.

 

I don't know what the figures are for influenza but I think the kill rate for the flu is way lower. Probably less than 1%. 

 

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

I hope that isn't what happened to @Hockey Junkie and i am not making a joke i know he is older than i and i'm 48.

 

I'm guessing he checked out because of the Sabres and not this Coronavirus.  I hope we don't lose anyone here in the forum and that nobody loses any loved ones. 

 

It's amazing how quickly this "got real" and became the defining story of our times. 

 

I just turned 42 yesterday. Time flies! Mandarin restaurant was nice. Not too busy but not empty either. Had a nice albeit subdued birthday with family.  

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

Those percentage numbers are deceiving because you are not counting the people that are still infected but not dead or dying.  NOT ACCURATE.

 

Yes I did.  

 

1 hour ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

EDIT:  Those numbers don’t include people that are or were infected and have not been tested or diagnosed.

 

I imagine when people die they probably get tested for cause of death. For those that have it but don't know they have it, they'll eventually show up as more reported cases. If someone gets it and recovers from it without ever being tested, we'll never know.  Can only go by the data we have.  

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Yes I did.  

 

 

I imagine when people die they probably get tested for cause of death. For those that have it but don't know they have it, they'll eventually show up as more reported cases. If someone gets it and recovers from it without ever being tested, we'll never know.  Can only go by the data we have.  

 

 

 

 

Well the first good news of the day....

 

 

[CoachX]

5 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

For those who want the sobering numbers, I crunched them:  (Since I don't have any hockey stats to crunch.)

 

Here are the figures:

 

132,913 cases

4,965 deaths

69,847 recovered

 

That's what the site gives.... but more important is what they don't give. (See below.)

 

If there are 132,913 cases reported and 69,847 have recovered, that means 132,913 - 69,847 = 63,066 have NOT recovered.

 

Of those, 63,066 - 4,965 = 58,101 are currently INFECTED by the virus but they haven't reached an outcome yet, so we don't know whether they will live or die. That means we need to EXCLUDE the group of 58,101 people who are still alive but battling the virus right now. (Their story hasn't been written yet so to speak.)

 

That means that out of all the Coronavirus cases that have run to conclusion (where we know the final outcome) we have 4,965 deaths out of: 4,965 + 69,847 = 74,812 people.

 

Thus, the virus is killing 4,965 / 74,812 ~= 0.066 or roughly 6.6% of those people infected.

Interesting.  Werent you the guy yesterday who was upset because this was interrupting your ability to watch hockey and Austin Matthews quest for 50 goals?

 

I dunno, maybe this puts things in perspective.  Maybe the NHL did the right thing

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by CoachX

[intheslot]

[WordsOfWisdom]

10 hours ago, CoachX said:

Interesting.  Werent you the guy yesterday who was upset because this was interrupting your ability to watch hockey and Austin Matthews quest for 50 goals?

 

Yes, and I'm STILL upset!  I want to drop-kick this Coronavirus off the planet. 

 

(I also want this thread in the general NHL area lol.)

 

10 hours ago, CoachX said:

I dunno, maybe this puts things in perspective.  Maybe the NHL did the right thing

 

Well considering the entire world is now on PAUSE I guess so. The bigger question now is whether there will be an NHL next season. Could be an NHL minus about 15 teams that go bankrupt. Even when the Coronavirus thing blows over and the final body count is tallied, the economic damage is not something the world is going to instantly recover from. 

 

 

[Podein25]

Why flattening the curve matters in one chart:

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Podein25

[OccamsRazor]

32 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

Why flattening the curve matters in one chart:

 

 

Looks to me going to be another baby boom coming....say around Christmas babies everywhere...

[IllaZilla]

16 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

So is that high or normal to some new outbreak i don't know this i was hoping you did.

 

I hope that isn't what happened to @Hockey Junkie and i am not making a joke i know he is older than i and i'm 48.

 

The mortality rate for 1918 H1N1 pandemic was approximately 1-3% worldwide.

 

The mortality rate for 1968 H3N2 pandemic was approximately 0.03% worldwide. 

 

The mortality rate for 2009 H1N1 pandemic was approximately 0.001-0.003% worldwide.

 

The mortality rate for 2002 SARS-CoV outbreak was approximately 9.5% worldwide (NOTE: 8089 people were diagnosed with SARS and 774 died from it)

 

The mortality rate for the MERS-CoV virus since 2012 was approximately 34% worldwide (NOTE: 2519 people were diagnosed with MERS and 866 died from it, mainly limited to the Middle East.)

 

Far fewer people appear to be infected by past coronavirus outbreaks (SARS and MERS), but the mortality rate is much higher than the influenza virus.

 

[OccamsRazor]

3 minutes ago, IllaZilla said:

 

The mortality rate for 1918 H1N1 pandemic was approximately 1-3% worldwide.

 

The mortality rate for 1968 H3N2 pandemic was approximately 0.03% worldwide. 

 

The mortality rate for 2009 H1N1 pandemic was approximately 0.001-0.003% worldwide.

 

The mortality rate for 2002 SARS-CoV outbreak was approximately 9.5% worldwide (NOTE: 8089 people were diagnosed with SARS and 774 died from it)

 

The mortality rate for the MERS-CoV virus since 2012 was approximately 34% worldwide (NOTE: 2519 people were diagnosed with MERS and 866 died from it, mainly limited to the Middle East.)

 

Far fewer people appear to be infected by past coronavirus outbreaks (SARS and MERS), but the mortality rate is much higher than the influenza virus.

 

 

Thanks for the info on this. Sounds pretty high to some in comparison....the scary part is having Trump to lead us in the tring time.

[IllaZilla]

2 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Thanks for the info on this. Sounds pretty high to some in comparison....the scary part is having Trump to lead us in the tring time.

 

I think the true numbers of COVID-19 are probably lower, because there has been such poor testing in some countries (USA I'm looking in your direction). I've read some reports where they think the mortality rate may be actually closer to 1% because some people may have had it and thought it was the flu and never got tested. But that's still a lot of people dying.

 

That's the thing that's frustrating working in public health. People are scared, and we try to make reasonable recommendations about hand washing, social distancing, and self-isolation to calm them down. But then you get a "leader" who basically flaunts all of our recommendations because he's worried that he'll look "weak" or his Nielsen Ratings will go down.

[intheslot]

[CoachX]

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Yes, and I'm STILL upset!  I want to drop-kick this Coronavirus off the planet. 

 

(I also want this thread in the general NHL area lol.)

 

 

Well considering the entire world is now on PAUSE I guess so. The bigger question now is whether there will be an NHL next season. Could be an NHL minus about 15 teams that go bankrupt. Even when the Coronavirus thing blows over and the final body count is tallied, the economic damage is not something the world is going to instantly recover from. 

 

 

Lets not jump off the ledge. I expect the NHL to do everything it can to have playoffs this season. Next season will be fine and no teams will fold

[WordsOfWisdom]

17 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Lets not jump off the ledge. I expect the NHL to do everything it can to have playoffs this season. Next season will be fine and no teams will fold

 

I hope you're right.