NHL considering resuming the season with 24 team playoff

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 5/11/2020 at 11:24 PM, ruxpin said:

Honestly, they have a lot more to lose with this than just doing the sensible thing and say goodbye to the dead season and move on. 

 

It's a horrible idea. Some iteration of it will probably happen because this league is run by greedy myopic imbeciles, but it's a terrible idea. 

 

I guess we'll see how it plays out.   

 

I think the biggest danger here is that the NHL loses a FULL season + playoffs NEXT YEAR.  (Hear me out for a moment.)

 

If COVID-19 comes back again this fall and a "second wave" of the virus hits the population hard, the NHL may have to start cancelling games in October or November already for the 2020-21 season.  It's conceivable that the NHL could lose TWO seasons and TWO playoffs due to this virus.  IF that's the case, then it really inspires the NHL to finish this season and playoffs so they don't lose two in a row.

 

 

[ruxpin]

1 minute ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I guess we'll see how it plays out.   

 

I think the biggest danger here is that the NHL loses a FULL season + playoffs NEXT YEAR.  (Hear me out for a moment.)

 

If COVID-19 comes back again this fall and a "second wave" of the virus hits the population hard, the NHL may have to start cancelling games in October or November already for the 2020-21 season.  It's conceivable that the NHL could lose TWO seasons and TWO playoffs due to this virus.  IF that's the case, then it really inspires the NHL to finish this season and playoffs so they don't lose two in a row.

 

 

 

Hmm.  Yeah, I suppose there's something to that.

 

That may be an issue in Canada.   Here in the States we'll be too busy shooting each other for either not wearing a mask or for wearing one to care.

[Puck_Pun]

From the NHL's perspective playoff games are worth more than regular season games so given a choice they'll sacrifice some of the latter to save the former

[radoran]

I'm looking for the article I read on the TV contracts.

 

In the meantime, what do we do about the fact that any players who returned to Europe are currently banned from returning to the US?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-travel-analysi-idUSKBN22Q2SP

 

Or for that matter that the US/Canadian border is essentially closed?

 

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242703691.html

 

Could be a parade of asterisks on whoever wins this supposed tournament.

 

And wouldn't it just be Tronno's luck to win a tournament and not be able to have a parade?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-city-officials-covid-19-update-march-31-1.5516482

[radoran]

Here's a general comment from Bettman

 

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/29101947/the-nhl-coronavirus-pause-where-games-played-latest-draft-more

 

"Bettman said that if the Stanley Cup playoffs are outright canceled rather than played as a made-for-TV event, the league could owe its broadcast partners "credits against next season," since the bulk of the TV revenue is from the postseason and the league has already received its money from those deals this season.

 

And this wasn't the specific article but

 

http://amp.awfulannouncing.com/nhl/nhl-and-nba-still-considering-regular-season-completion-local-tv-contracts.html

 

"The bigger problems would come with the regional sports networks that have local deals with the different teams; those networks would be losing a lot more inventory (especially when you consider how many of them there are), they wouldn’t have much of a chance to make it up (RSNs do get some early-round NBA and NHL playoff games, but they don’t get to keep showing games through the playoffs), and perhaps most crucially, the regular-season games played wouldn’t hit the minimum number written into the RSN/team contracts (which appears to usually be 70 games). And that could lead to some big problems. There have even been some discussions, notably from Matthew Sekeres (a sports radio host on Vancouver, B.C.’s The Team 1040), that not hitting those minimums could lead to contracts rolling over (specifically with Sinclair, which bought the “Fox” branded regional sports networks last May) and to networks not paying for the next season."

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 5/14/2020 at 6:45 PM, radoran said:

I'm looking for the article I read on the TV contracts.

 

In the meantime, what do we do about the fact that any players who returned to Europe are currently banned from returning to the US?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-travel-analysi-idUSKBN22Q2SP

 

Or for that matter that the US/Canadian border is essentially closed?

 

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242703691.html

 

Could be a parade of asterisks on whoever wins this supposed tournament.

 

And wouldn't it just be Tronno's luck to win a tournament and not be able to have a parade?

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-city-officials-covid-19-update-march-31-1.5516482

 

Nothing can get rolling until the borders open up again..... but that's coming soon. I don't see that as an issue here.   

 

We're only in May. The borders are going to be back open by June 1 or July 1 at the latest. Businesses are going to be open. Restaurants and bars open. Patios open. Everything is returning to normal for summer. Anything the league wants to do will be doable by July or August.

 

The ONLY real impediment to the NHL doing what it wants is the NHLPA. It's a shame that these two sides do more to destroy each other than they do to work together but that's the NHL for ya.  

[radoran]

3 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The ONLY real impediment to the NHL doing what it wants is the NHLPA. It's a shame that these two sides do more to destroy each other than they do to work together but that's the NHL for ya.  

 

So why don't the players agree to work themselves to a degree that risks serious, career-ending injury far above and beyond that they already accept?

 

Truly a mystery.

 

Every player - every fan - knows that you can't "re-start" this season and have any semblance of "where it was" when it was shut down.

 

The ONLY reason to re-start this is overall "hockey related revenue" which is tied directly to the league already cancelling a season and a half this century because billionaires couldn't agree how much millionaires should receive to play the game to make money for billionaires.

 

Good job, that.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

56 minutes ago, radoran said:

So why don't the players agree to work themselves to a degree that risks serious, career-ending injury far above and beyond that they already accept?

 

Truly a mystery.

 

Well so far the players have been worked to about 71% of their normal expected output.  

 

(70 GP / 82 GP + 16 playoff games = 70 / 98 = 71%.)  The number of playoff games is approximate of course.

 

To use a 9-5 job analogy: If the players normally work M-F, 9am-5pm, then their work week just ended Thursday at noon. 

 

1 hour ago, radoran said:

Every player - every fan - knows that you can't "re-start" this season and have any semblance of "where it was" when it was shut down.

 

I don't see why not. Other than injured players getting healthy, it's the same rosters.   

 

1 hour ago, radoran said:

The ONLY reason to re-start this is overall "hockey related revenue" which is tied directly to the league already cancelling a season and a half this century because billionaires couldn't agree how much millionaires should receive to play the game to make money for billionaires.

 

Well it's always going to be revenue related. Everything the league does is revenue related.

 

Since the NHL has already lost two half seasons and one full season to internal bickering, I don't think they want to lose another. 

 

Plus the CBA is coming due shortly and that's another 48-game season coming for the NHL. 

 

"The current CBA is a 10-year deal, expiring after the 2021–22 season."  - Wikipedia

 

[radoran]

On 5/17/2020 at 12:17 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

I don't see why not. Other than injured players getting healthy, it's the same rosters.   

 

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on where players went.

 

How many Swedes do you want coming back from Sweden during their "herd immunity" experiment?

 

Will the Canadian government admit Americans? And vice versa?

 

But the point is that the teams themselves aren't going to have the same chemistry, the same momentum.

 

You know who says this? The players themselves.

 

"But you can’t really carry that momentum over with this much of a break. It’s just a reset and hopefully we can come back.’’

- Scott Laughton

https://www.mcall.com/sports/phantoms-flyers/mc-spt-flyers-fish-laughton-call-20200407-pumcnegienhvhhssxyjzcjxauu-story.html

 

And stop with 9-5 job analogies. This isn't a 9-5 job, it's sport.

 

Bring players back from quarantine, give them two weeks to get back in game shape, put them in empty arenas playing a condensed schedule and call it "playoffs."

 

Call it what it is - cheap and contrived.

 

Then expect them to come back a few weeks after that, go into training camp, and play another full season.

 

You'll have higher risk of injury from players not in game shape, and higher risk of injury next season from overextended players.

 

And you'll have games that likely little resemble the level of "playoff hockey" we've come to expect and a "Stanley Cup Champion" with a bigger asterix than the 48-game season one.

Edited May 18, 2020 by radoran

[WordsOfWisdom]

4 hours ago, radoran said:

Maybe. Maybe not. Depends on where players went.

 

How many Swedes do you want coming back from Sweden during their "herd immunity" experiment?

 

Will the Canadian government admit Americans? And vice versa?

 

All of those issues have to be resolved first before it becomes feasible at all.   

 

4 hours ago, radoran said:

But the point is that the teams themselves aren't going to have the same chemistry, the same momentum.

 

True. Nothing can be done about that.  

 

4 hours ago, radoran said:

And stop with 9-5 job analogies. This isn't a 9-5 job, it's sport.

 

That takes every opportunity to refer to itself as a job. Can't have it both ways. 

 

4 hours ago, radoran said:

Bring players back from quarantine, give them two weeks to get back in game shape, put them in empty arenas playing a condensed schedule and call it "playoffs."

 

The NHL won't do it if the arenas are empty. This is only going to be viable if fans are allowed back in the arenas and things return to normal. If not, then there's no good business reason to do it. 

 

4 hours ago, radoran said:

Then expect them to come back a few weeks after that, go into training camp, and play another full season.

 

IF this all begins August 1, here's what happens:

• 50% of the teams will be idle after the regular season play from 70 - 82 GP
• Of the remaining 50% that play on, 25% will be idle after the first week of September
• Then you'll have another 25% idle after the second week of September
• By the time you reach end of September, the playoffs are pretty much over and 29 teams will have been idle for weeks.

As each team has their season/playoffs end, their training camps for next season can officially begin a week or so later. Those training camps won't be normal training camps. They'll be light skating, passing, and shooting drills only just to keep the players in game shape until the puck drops on the new season. The players can float for four weeks doing optional practices if they wish. 

 

4 hours ago, radoran said:

And you'll have games that likely little resemble the level of "playoff hockey" we've come to expect and a "Stanley Cup Champion" with a bigger asterix than the 48-game season one.

 

Actually, I think the reverse is true. With healthy players and a two month layoff, it'll be like watching hockey in October and November. The players will all be at 100% and every roster will be at 100%.

 

 

[radoran]

3 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The NHL won't do it if the arenas are empty. This is only going to be viable if fans are allowed back in the arenas and things return to normal. If not, then there's no good business reason to do it. 

 

There is no place where 15-20,000 people are going to be allowed to gather "safely" in the next few months.

 

Tronno is closed through June 30.

 

The "business" reason to do it is TV contracts. That's really the ONLY reason to do it. I've already quoted Bettman on this issue.

 

And it can absolutely be "a job" and not comparable to a 9-5 office. Pilots, doctors, truck drivers - just for starters - are all "jobs" and none of them are standard 9-5 professions.

 

7 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

With healthy players and a two month layoff, it'll be like watching hockey in October and November.

 

None of these guys have been on skates for two months and you think it'll be just like early season hockey?

 

Put your analyst on danger money, baby.

 

Now think about the first time a guy tests positive during "the playoffs" - something that's statistically almost inevitable even with a strict lockdown.

 

Check John Oliver's show this past Sunday (it's on YouTube). The difficulty of "getting back to normal" in sports is real and won't magically go away.

[WordsOfWisdom]

44 minutes ago, radoran said:

There is no place where 15-20,000 people are going to be allowed to gather "safely" in the next few months.

 

Tronno is closed through June 30.

 

 

 

44 minutes ago, radoran said:

The "business" reason to do it is TV contracts. That's really the ONLY reason to do it. I've already quoted Bettman on this issue.

 

(I swear I'm not a lawyer...)  The NHL could probably argue that the contract was "frustrated" by the COVID-19 outbreak and therefore get out of having to honor that part of the deal. The TV networks would take the loss. 

 

"A frustrated contract is a contract that, subsequent to its formation, and without fault of either party, is incapable of being performed due to an unforeseen event (or events), resulting in the obligations under the contract being radically different from those contemplated by the parties to the contract."  

 

That my friend, is the NHL's legal way out of having to give the TV networks a free year of games next year.   

 

48 minutes ago, radoran said:

And it can absolutely be "a job" and not comparable to a 9-5 office. Pilots, doctors, truck drivers - just for starters - are all "jobs" and none of them are standard 9-5 professions.

 

It was just an analogy used to illustrate player "freshness"!   

 

49 minutes ago, radoran said:

None of these guys have been on skates for two months and you think it'll be just like early season hockey?

 

After a brief training camp in July yes.  

 

50 minutes ago, radoran said:

Now think about the first time a guy tests positive during "the playoffs" - something that's statistically almost inevitable even with a strict lockdown.

 

Well COVID-19 isn't going away, so all sports leagues and businesses are going to have to deal with this new reality. If a player gets sick, you remove them, put them on the injured list, and move on. Life has to move on. The current state of events (total worldwide lock down) is a temporary situation. It cannot continue. 

 

 

[ruxpin]

The NHL should just tell the networks that everything is prorated, so s'all good.

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

The NHL should just tell the networks that everything is prorated, so s'all good.

 

Everyone is getting good mileage out of this joke lol.   

 

I still haven't changed my mind on the prorate thing. I still think it's the right thing to do in this rarest of rare circumstances. You can put an asterisk there if you wish, but I'd rather see the stats and standings at the familiar 82 GP level at the trajectory in which they were heading.  

[OccamsRazor]

Well if they go forward with this they need a new Cup to win...

 

 

 

...henceforth the Coronavirus Cup!!!!!!!!

 

Lord Stanley will take a year off.

[radoran]

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

After a brief training camp in July yes.  

 

So basically you've got the players playing virtually nonstop from July through next April and some all the way into next June?

 

And you don't think that's a recipe for increased risk of injury?

 

The idea that someone who hasn't been on skates for two months.- or even with a reasonable workout regimen - gets back into game shape in two weeks is silly.

 

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

That my friend, is the NHL's legal way out of having to give the TV networks a free year of games next year. 

 

So you're saying there's no real reason to do this?

 

Good point.

 

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The current state of events (total worldwide lock down) is a temporary situation. It cannot continue. 

 

The second wave of the Spanish Flu pandemic was far more lethal than the first.

 

As a resident of a town that was among the hardest hit because people "wanted things to be normal" I'm familiar with the risks. One of the things that did it was the resumption of travel.

 

Then you had the third wave...

 

If they can make it work, great. I just find it hard to believe they have answers to all of the potential problems. And I don't think that giving out a trophy is a good reason to substantially increase the risk of death.

 

Which brings up another concern - how many people want to pay top dollar to put themselves in a high risk environment?

 

The concept of flattinging the curve is not only to ease the burden on the health system but also to keep people safe while a vaccine is developed. You don't need to wait for a vaccine to do a lot of things, but putting 15-20,000 people into confined spaces so they can scream and shout is not one of them.

 

There are accounts of promising vaccines being developed in many countries, including here. It could very well be that they could play next season as usual.

 

There's just no good reason to "finish" this one with a contrived tournament.

Edited May 18, 2020 by radoran

[WordsOfWisdom]

6 hours ago, radoran said:

So basically you've got the players playing virtually nonstop from July through next April and some all the way into next June?

 

Well July would be skating, not a training camp. Players aren't competing for jobs. The rosters are fixed. Everyone has their job. It's just getting them back on skates again and getting their timing back. No biggie. 

 

August would be finishing the regular season. That ensures the integrity of the 16 playoff teams, records, etc.

 

September would be the standard 16-team playoffs, albeit with reduced series length to either 3 or 5 games. I doubt the league would ever do a 3-game series unless they wanted all 32 teams in the playoffs and added more rounds, so 5 games per series it is.  That gets the playoffs over by early October and awards a winner.  Then you take a break for a week or two and begin the new season.

 

The only players that are somewhat hard-done-by are the Cup finalists, who might be at 90% entering the start of the new season instead of 100%. Everyone else is 100%.  

 

Then off you go with the season until COVID-19 resurfaces in December 2020 and wipes out the 2020-21 season.  In other words, player rest is not an issue. I see virtually no chance that the next season will survive past December anyway. It'll become a moot point. In fact, without a vaccine, the NHL will become a moot point. The notion of players ever having to worry about being paid to play hockey and risk potential fatigue might be a moot point. They can stay in lock down until they grow old and die like the rest of us.    

 

7 hours ago, radoran said:

So you're saying there's no real reason to do this?

 

Good point.

 

Well from a legal standpoint, that's how the NHL gets out of it without losing any money on those TV deals. 

 

I guess the only real reason to do it is because there won't be a 2020-21 season. The players will have plenty of time to rest next winter (see below). 

 

How come people are trying to make me argue with myself lol?  

 

7 hours ago, radoran said:

The second wave of the Spanish Flu pandemic was far more lethal than the first.

 

As a resident of a town that was among the hardest hit because people "wanted things to be normal" I'm familiar with the risks. One of the things that did it was the resumption of travel.

 

Then you had the third wave...

 

...... this is why I think the NHL should finish this season. There won't be another one anytime soon. The second wave of COVID-19 will ruin anything that the NHL and NBA have going by December. So instead of a cancelled 70-game season, they'll have a cancelled 41-game season coming up.   

 

7 hours ago, radoran said:

There are accounts of promising vaccines being developed in many countries, including here. It could very well be that they could play next season as usual.

 

That would be nice.   

[Alexandron]

On 5/13/2020 at 10:09 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I guess we'll see how it plays out.   

 

I think the biggest danger here is that the NHL loses a FULL season + playoffs NEXT YEAR.  (Hear me out for a moment.)

 

If COVID-19 comes back again this fall and a "second wave" of the virus hits the population hard, the NHL may have to start cancelling games in October or November already for the 2020-21 season.  It's conceivable that the NHL could lose TWO seasons and TWO playoffs due to this virus.  IF that's the case, then it really inspires the NHL to finish this season and playoffs so they don't lose two in a row.

 

I would like to be more optimistic and I do not think that we will ever see  in our life same such a tough restrictions as we did this spring even if the mortality will raise more. Medical staff around the globe gradually getting now more and more experience in most medical facilities how to manage these viral infections in epidemic or pandemic forms. Between 40 to 52% of population are asymptomatic to coronavirus infection and already having some levels of immunity to it. Certainly next 2 seasons suppose to be milder. This season definitely should be canceled as is because of COVID-19 pandemic.  In my opinion, any player if he got the infection, must be treated as a flu patient, with a possible slightly slower recovery in comparison to a regular flu. And maybe, in complicated cases, he will get a transfusion of a unit or two units of donors plasma enriched with antibodies against of coronavirus. Probably helpful would be, if NHL will create a bank  of plasma from a players who has already nice titres of antibodies to COVID. Hope, we could get in a next 6 months effective medicine and vaccines against that infection too. It will be also helpful to use in every ice arena before each game a safe powerful quartz ultraviolet C lamps for few hours, which will save lots of disinfectant solutions, a time and money for using those solutions. Medical science technology is working towards that direction.

I am still thinking that we will get a milder "third wave" of that infection around the world this fall.  "First wave" was not as strong last fall according to my discussions in some hospitals and among my friends. Same scenario had a "first wave" for Spanish flu about 100 years ago (it was not as strong as a "second wave" then). 

[Icechipper]

Stick a fork in this season. United States/Canada/Mexico just extended border closings another 30 days (exceptions for vital shipping). Which means the NHL won't be able to bring the cup across the border, let alone hundreds of Canadian players. Only thing I can see is staging in Canadian rinks, as the Great White North would certainly classify hockey players as essential to the nation.....

[Podein25]

3 hours ago, Icechipper said:

the Great White North would certainly classify hockey players as essential to the nation.....

 

This is true. I was born with skates on. My poor mother. 

[Podein25]

23 hours ago, Alexandron said:

would like to be more optimistic

 

Me too, but then I turned on the news.

[fan4ever]

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/predators-matt-duchene-covid-cup-nhl-makes-push-modified-playoffs

 

 

A no vote from Matt Duchene....

Edited May 20, 2020 by fan4ever

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, fan4ever said:

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/predators-matt-duchene-covid-cup-nhl-makes-push-modified-playoffs

 

 

A no vote from Matt Duchene....

 

Then let's do this b###h!

Edited May 20, 2020 by ruxpin

[Alexandron]

On 5/20/2020 at 9:49 AM, Podein25 said:

 

Me too, but then I turned on the news.

Sincerely, I am getting more and more skeptical regarding those news especially regarding a mortality stats. Who is doing these stats still is a huge question? It seems is more a political element involved into the medical field than the real stats. Tell you a truth, we do see a different picture during the last 3 months in 7 hospitals where I am working. By getting in time a social distancing, more home isolation, using more masks in public places (mainly in stores) helped to stop spreading this infection and as well as other infections too among the population during this spring. Interesting, that population became more healthier during that time. We have now less patients(40-50%) at the hospitals; we are looking for infected and other patients everywhere to fill the beds, but still we are even more concerned to the infection resistant to antibiotics(for example MRSA) more than to the coronavirus infection. Personally for me , it is a shame to see stats of such a high mortality for my country. I really just do not believe to it (it should be much much less; at least 10 times less) because I work at this highest level of medicine here (for 24 years) in comparison to other 3 countries where I worked before in my 43 years of medical experience now. I also have friends who are working at nursing homes and at closed psychiatric facilities in Minnesota where they do not see such a bad situation about that infection in comparison to the media presentation. Probably, by the end of the year we would not even hear a lot the word COVID-19 through our media, but definitely, we will be more independent in producing enough masks and disinfectant solutions and many other stuff too in comparison before of this spring. Hope, we will able also to build a superb air filtration for this important industry, which is necessary for our healthy life.  

    Regarding sports of helping to change our physical hypo-dynamic status during the last  about 3 months(March; April, May) of home isolation I would recommend  to start widely to use basketball (#1); tennis and/or just fishing. It will improve in our body all blood circulation , especially, in our lungs. 

[Alexandron]

Regarding a hockey thoughts, I would start to resume intensively the season with a Traverse City Tournament , happening usually in August. And then everything else in a regular mode according to the preparation of the season 2020-2021 in NHL as well as in AHL. 

 I heard some other optimistic medical news that besides serum anti-bodies responsible for the immunity against of COVID infection, our body developing memory in our cellular immunity, which means the next COVID infections will be much less harmful like a simple non complicated  cold/flu. 

Thus, next regular NHL seasons will be without any stoppage due to the COVID infections.