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Hockey Junkie

Does long lay off give the teams playing first series an edge?

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1 hour ago, SCFlyguy said:

Citation(s) needed.

 

I personally know two people affected: 

  • 50 year old, no prior conditions, dead.
  • 24 year old got so oxygen deprived so suddenly he ended up in a coma and has been in rehab for 2 months trying to regain the use of his right side.

So GTFOH with your bull$hit.

 

🤡

 

Hats off with such a great argumentation.

 

So you generalize with a sample of two persons. Ok great. FYI, I also know two persons in the exact same situation you described, exceptions does not make the norm. We can always start a "my dad is stronger than yours" type of fight but I'm not really interested by those and it's not the place for.

 

Finally it's not my BS, this BS comes from people I know and working in the forefront of ICU and daily presser from doctors and epidemiologists in QC, Canada and Europe. But maybe they are all stupid and wrong, who knows...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I thought it was also possible to pass an immunity/tolerance to it through to your children genetically as part of evolution?  

 

NO....that is incorrect.  What you are talking about is Passive Immunity. By definition, Passive immunity is provided when a person is given antibodies to a disease rather than producing them through his or her own immune system.

 

A newborn baby acquires passive immunity from its mother through the placenta. A person can also get passive immunity through antibody-containing blood products such as immune globulin, which may be given when immediate protection from a specific disease is needed. This is the major advantage to passive immunity; protection is immediate, whereas active immunity takes time (usually several weeks) to develop.

 

However, passive immunity lasts only for a few weeks or months. Only active immunity is long-lasting.

 

Active immunity results when exposure to a disease organism triggers the immune system to produce antibodies to that disease. Exposure to the disease organism can occur through infection with the actual disease (resulting in natural immunity), or introduction of a killed or weakened form of the disease organism through vaccination (vaccine-induced immunity). Either way, if an immune person comes into contact with that disease in the future, their immune system will recognize it and immediately produce the antibodies needed to fight it.  Sometimes this will prevent the disease from occurring all together or sometimes lessening the symptoms.

 

Active immunity is long-lasting, and sometimes life-long.

 

2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Seems like some viruses mutate and others don't. A vaccine can grant full immunity to chicken pox but no immunity to influenza for example. (Me getting the flu shot doesn't prevent me from getting the flu.)

 

Time to clear some things up.......

 

First of all there is a MAJOR difference between the Varicella Vaccine (Chicken Pox) and the Flu Vaccine.  Yes they are both viruses but completely different. You CANNOT compare the two of them together.    VZV is a highly infectious virus and the causative agent of chickenpox and shingles, the latter being particularly associated with the risk of painful cmplications. The biggest difference between the two is simply that the Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV) has had very little mutation over the years as compared to the Flu Virus.

 

The Flu Virus has 4 different sub-types and tends to mutate on a yearly basis.  There are many different flu viruses and they are constantly changing. The composition of U.S. flu vaccines is reviewed annually and updated as needed to match circulating flu viruses. Flu vaccines protect against the three or four viruses (depending on the vaccine) that research suggests will be most common. For 2019-2020, trivalent (three-component) vaccines are recommended to contain:

  • A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (updated)
  • A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus (updated)
  • B/Colorado/06/2017-like (Victoria lineage) virus

Quadrivalent (four-component) vaccines, which protect against a second lineage of B viruses, are recommended to contain: the three recommended viruses above, plus B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (Yamagata lineage) virus.

 

Please note,  medicine is still an inexact science.  The CDC does its best to formulate the best possible Flu Vaccine as possible, but when people say "IT DOES NOT WORK" or "I STILL GOT THE FLU" it simple means that individual acquired a different Flu Strain than what is in the current vaccine.  It happens.

 

The CDC has a great article on the number Flu Viruses out there and how they are named. I highly suggest you glance this over. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Will be interesting to see what the case is with COVID-19. 

 

Every virus mutates; it’s part of the virus life cycle. Those shifts and changes aren’t always a big deal. The new coronavirus is an RNA virus: a collection of genetic material packed inside a protein shell. RNA viruses, like the flu and measles, are more prone to changes and mutations compared with DNA viruses, such as herpes, smallpox, and human papillomavirus (HPV). In some cases, those mutations may actually lead to a weaker virus. Usually, though, the changes are so slight that there’s no noticeable difference in the disease’s transmission and fatality rates.  Right now it it is way too early to determine what is going to happen.

 

Edited by pilldoc
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4 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

You must have seen that guy that said he would take Chicago at long odds.  I do not see it.  But shortened seasons might even give my once mighty Orioles a chance.  Now if they win the World Series, if there is one, do you think they would be respected? 

 

Not even the Orioles themselves ? ;)

 

As a Cubs fan, I'll take it. Don't want to wait another century for the next championship.

 

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3 hours ago, Villette/Lavaux said:

Living in QC, Canada's province most affected by the virus and for now, there's not a statistically significant increase in the number of deaths of adult people compared to last year at the same period and the same observations have been made in other European countries.

 

You make statements like this and have provided no links or support for them, so I assume you made them up.

 

A quick 

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The province had 451 deaths on top of the reported COVID-19 deaths and the historical average for a four-week period ending in mid-April. The preliminary data showed fatalities were 8.5-per-cent higher than might have been expected after accounting for COVID-19.

 

8.5% would seem to be statistically significant.

 

Likewise, in 

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, excess mortality rates were abnormally high compared to the same periods in prior years and subtracting known coronavirus cases, meaning the death rates are likely much, much higher than reported:

"

Quote

Excess mortality in Germany [5%] is low compared to other European countries," the statisticians reported. "

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 in March 2020 than in the years 2015 to 2019, on average [...] Sweden reports twice as many deaths in the agglomeration area of Stockholm for weeks 14 to 16 [mid-April] as, on average, the five years before."

 

Twice as much death would seem to be statistically significant as well, but maybe your European sources have better information.  Please share them.

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5 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

NO....that is incorrect.  What you are talking about is Passive Immunity. By definition, Passive immunity is provided when a person is given antibodies to a disease rather than producing them through his or her own immune system.

 

A newborn baby acquires passive immunity from its mother through the placenta. A person can also get passive immunity through antibody-containing blood products such as immune globulin, which may be given when immediate protection from a specific disease is needed. This is the major advantage to passive immunity; protection is immediate, whereas active immunity takes time (usually several weeks) to develop.

 

However, passive immunity lasts only for a few weeks or months. Only active immunity is long-lasting.

 

Active immunity results when exposure to a disease organism triggers the immune system to produce antibodies to that disease. Exposure to the disease organism can occur through infection with the actual disease (resulting in natural immunity), or introduction of a killed or weakened form of the disease organism through vaccination (vaccine-induced immunity). Either way, if an immune person comes into contact with that disease in the future, their immune system will recognize it and immediately produce the antibodies needed to fight it.  Sometimes this will prevent the disease from occurring all together or sometimes lessening the symptoms.

 

Active immunity is long-lasting, and sometimes life-long.

 

 

Time to clear some things up.......

 

First of all there is a MAJOR difference between the Varicella Vaccine (Chicken Pox) and the Flu Vaccine.  Yes they are both viruses but completely different. You CANNOT compare the two of them together.    VZV is a highly infectious virus and the causative agent of chickenpox and shingles, the latter being particularly associated with the risk of painful cmplications. The biggest difference between the two is simply that the Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV) has had very little mutation over the years as compared to the Flu Virus.

 

The Flu Virus has 4 different sub-types and tends to mutate on a yearly basis.  There are many different flu viruses and they are constantly changing. The composition of U.S. flu vaccines is reviewed annually and updated as needed to match circulating flu viruses. Flu vaccines protect against the three or four viruses (depending on the vaccine) that research suggests will be most common. For 2019-2020, trivalent (three-component) vaccines are recommended to contain:

  • A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (updated)
  • A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus (updated)
  • B/Colorado/06/2017-like (Victoria lineage) virus

Quadrivalent (four-component) vaccines, which protect against a second lineage of B viruses, are recommended to contain: the three recommended viruses above, plus B/Phuket/3073/2013-like (Yamagata lineage) virus.

 

Please note,  medicine is still an inexact science.  The CDC does its best to formulate the best possible Flu Vaccine as possible, but when people say "IT DOES NOT WORK" or "I STILL GOT THE FLU" it simple means that individual acquired a different Flu Strain than what is in the current vaccine.  It happens.

 

The CDC has a great article on the number Flu Viruses out there and how they are named. I highly suggest you glance this over. 

 

 

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Every virus mutates; it’s part of the virus life cycle. Those shifts and changes aren’t always a big deal. The new coronavirus is an RNA virus: a collection of genetic material packed inside a protein shell. RNA viruses, like the flu and measles, are more prone to changes and mutations compared with DNA viruses, such as herpes, smallpox, and human papillomavirus (HPV). In some cases, those mutations may actually lead to a weaker virus. Usually, though, the changes are so slight that there’s no noticeable difference in the disease’s transmission and fatality rates.  Right now it it is way too early to determine what is going to happen.

 

 

Thanks for your service bud. Keep at it. Ignorance kills. Nobody appears to know that better than you guys at this point in the proceedings.

 

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7 hours ago, Villette/Lavaux said:

 

Not even the Orioles themselves ? ;)

 

As a Cubs fan, I'll take it. Don't want to wait another century for the next championship.

 

1983 was not yesterday.  Ripken’s rookie year

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3 hours ago, Podein25 said:

 

Thanks for your service bud. Keep at it. Ignorance kills. Nobody appears to know that better than you guys at this point in the proceedings.

 

 

Rather than use the word ignorance, I'd use the words: "lack of expertise in this subject area".

 

The fact of the matter is that the general public (overall) are doing what they're being told to do: social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, etc. We know how viruses get spread, but we can't know it all. What we don't know is the ins and outs of every detail of every virus and what goes on behind the scenes. That never makes the news. That's the domain of expert knowledge from people working in the field.

 

That's why I put the disclaimer "not a doctor" before my message.   :) 

 

And technically I sort of got the second part right about the mutations!  :firstplace:

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6 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Rather than use the word ignorance, I'd use the words: "lack of expertise in this subject area".

 

The fact of the matter is that the general public (overall) are doing what they're being told to do: social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks, etc. We know how viruses get spread, but we can't know it all. What we don't know is the ins and outs of every detail of every virus and what goes on behind the scenes. That never makes the news. That's the domain of expert knowledge from people working in the field.

 

That's why I put the disclaimer "not a doctor" before my message.   :) 

 

And technically I sort of got the second part right about the mutations!  :firstplace:

 

Fair enough

 

But we also have evidence of willful ignorance killing people. Just saying

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19 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

You make statements like this and have provided no links or support for them, so I assume you made them up.

 

Sure, I could have made up a whole and purely invented story. But for what? Just to lose time and give myself importance and pretend to be a cool and smart guy on the boards? Not my thing, I got other stuff to do. I'm a bit narcissist, totally cynical, sometimes a true a*hole, but I'm not into that bossy stuff. Again, the information I got comes directly from discussions I had from people working on the field (who are trustable a priori), and live daily presser from Dr. Carignan (from Sherbrooke), Dr. Tam (Chief Health Officer of Canada), Dr. Koch from Bern, Switzerland, and others. My apologies for these not being recorded on the web, though pressers may surely be archived on the CBC website. On this board, we share thoughts, opinions, facts, experiences, no more no less. If you still believe that I made that all up, it doesn't bother me. I'm no doctor nor expert in immunology/epidemiology, though I'm a scientist working in statistics. Not to show my hairy torso to you guys, just to add some context.

 

19 hours ago, SCFlyguy said:

The province had 451 deaths on top of the reported COVID-19 deaths and the historical average for a four-week period ending in mid-April. The preliminary data showed fatalities were 8.5-per-cent higher than might have been expected after accounting for COVID-19.

 

My first reflex is caution. You can quickly find all kind of numbers thrown out of various sources from Google. Here: 8.5%-increase. Yes, for the whole population and we know that most the the casualties are elderly people (90% for 70+ y.o.) and people in living facilities (80%). Therefore, young and adult people do not show a significant rate in mortality, and due to Covid-19. The main questions that we have to ask when dealing with stats and numbers are: It is significant? Not necessarily, because it always depends on the sample size and structure. Are all class of ages represented? Has randomization been applied? Are all geographical areas equally represented? What the statistical tests performed? Chi-squared, t-test, F-test, Test of means, is normality ensured? So here's my sources as I was asked (some of them in french, sorry for that):

 

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On a stricto senso statistical point of view, all is debatable. First because we don't have the answers to these questions, second because the pandemic is not over. We do have trends, we do have preliminary responses, threshold levels, but final results is a long, harsh work. You have to verify your assumptions, go through the peer review process, track changes, check these, double-check these, back to peer review, and then studies and results can be listed as reliable and this whole process takes months.

 

By saying there's no evidence of a second wave, it does not mean that it won't happen: it means that we just don't know right now. By looking through all these charts, That's my gut feeling. I might be wrong or not. Only time will tell and the only that is sure is today's reality is always different of tomorrow's. What I loathe is the way media present the crisis, generating terror and fear that would eventually lead to more damages than the virus itself, making for example special broadcasts about healthy adults died form Covid as widely spread and normal events when it's not.

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Villette/Lavaux said:

Living in QC, Canada's province most affected by the virus and for now, there's not a statistically significant increase in the number of deaths of adult people compared to last year at the same period and the same observations have been made in other European countries.

 

Your previous statement above is the opposite of what your nytimes link says (as well as the sources I posted), which all indicate statistically significant higher mortality this spring.

 

For instance, in April 2020, Michigan had the highest monthly mortality of any month in the last 20 years.  #2 was March 2020.  Just a coincidence.

Edited by SCFlyguy

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I clarify this. I was speaking about some countries in Europe, and overall in terms of age (the age drill-down is not always accessible, for quality and sometimes legal reasons). Norway, Denmark, Finland, Germany for instance do not show a significant anomaly whereas Italy, Belgium, UK clearly show a clear outlying behavior.

 

Also, This data should (and will) be Not every country defines their stats (cases/ICU admissions, deaths) the same way, which make any comparison tedious. Why is there so much differences is mind-boggling still right now. Another example: Vancouver didn't shut down all businesses, didn't ordered a hard shut down. The city was expected to be severely hit by the pandemic due to its chinese ties, strong asian minority and by the fact that int'l flights and borders were not immediately closed. Vancouver has been pretty much spared by the pandemic. Meanwhile, Montréal turned into Fukushima in their living facilities... 

 

In the US, I think we pretty much all agree on the terrible portrait as for now, especially in TX, AL, OK where things do not look good at all.

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