The Minnesota Wild Sign Kirill Kaprizov to 2-year deal

[EmptyShelf]

I think a good measuring stick is to look at Kuznetsov of the Caps and Kucherov of Tampa.  Kuznetsov has the most similar path to Kaprisov; played in younger development years in KHL, then came over to NHL in his 22 year old season.  He had 11G 26A for 37pts in his age 22 season with Washington.  The next year, he had 20G 57A and 77pts.  He is typically around 20-25G and 50A per year (in a FULL season).  Conversely, Kucherov played his development years in the Canadian Junior leagues.  His first NHL year (at age 20), he had 9G and 9A for 18 points in a little over half a season.  The next year, he had 29G and 36A for 65 points.  He has averaged about 35G and 60 A since.  

 

Kuznetsov averaged about 18G in the KHL, while Kaprisov averaged 25G.  Moreover, if you assume that Kaprisov is coming over with a little more seasoning and more exceptional seasons in the KHL, I think he has better odds to produce more Goals and points than Kuznetsov both in year one and beyond (assuming he is on the top line, on the power play, and surrounded by talent like Fiala).  Any comparison to Kucherov might be a bit optimistic, as he matriculated in the Canadian junior leagues, and was more accustomed to North American hockey in his early 20s.  Kucherov has been as high as 40 and 41G and over 100pts twice (with a high of 128).   

 

As a result, I expect Kaprisov will have a first year that would be a bit better than Kuznetsov (37 points), and better than Kucherov at only 18 points in his age 20 season.  I say this, because KK is older, has had more success, and is seemingly a superior goal scorer to Kuz, and maybe on par with Kucherov.  I also think the extra 1 and 3 years respectively that Kirill has on the other two (in terms of professional hockey maturity) WILL make a difference.  Thus, I am going to predict 20G and 25A in his first year.  The real question will be in his second year, wherein his adjustment will be mostly over, and I would expect 75points from Kirill, comprised of 30G and 45A.  From there, I would expect him to have more goals on average than Kuznetsov, approaching or exceeding Kucherov = 35G+ per year, and around 80-85 points.  This assumes that he has decent talent around him throughout, as well as top line minutes ALWAYS.  This also assumes that he adjusts to the language similarly to the other two, and it assumes that he is NOT poisoned by the Tude that seems to pervade the Wild vets and rolls down upon newcomers.  I think jettisoning Parise (at least) in a trade that Parise embraces, will ensure that is the case (and presuming we have seen the last of the Klyde).  

 

I know this is a bit of a crude way to look at matters, but I believe it is fair, given the ages and capabilities of these three players.  IF this set of assumptions holds true, Kaprisov will be one of the top 2 players on the Wild by late in his first year, and definitely during his second.  Fiala will have a great deal to do with his success, as will the acquisition of a top center.  Let me know your thoughts.

[EmptyShelf]

One other thing; I AM predicting that Kaprisov attains 20G+ and 25A+ in his first year - even if the season is abbreviated by 10-15 games.  So, in a regular length first season, I would assume he would attain 55pts with 25G and 30A.  I think we will pay him well thereafter, as I do believe that he will be the second best forward on the team by the middle of his first year - EVEN IF WE LUCK INTO LaFreniere.  I am really hoping that we finally get some luck in the draft, as we have had a pretty poor experience since the beginning of the franchise.

 

One question for the group.  I assume that we will not get the 1st rounder from Pittsburgh this year, due to their entering the lottery with their playoff loss.  However, what if they end up with the lowest pick (18th, I think)?  Do you think they would allow the Wild to attain the pick this year versus next?  You never know if Pittsburgh would ever pick better than 18th in 2021 (wherein that pick would be the Wild's if they don't provide it this year).  With Pittsburgh's talent, perhaps 2021 is a foregone conclusion for us to have two picks (though what if Crosby gets another concussion, and they implode a bit in 2021)?  If true, do we package one first rounder and three players for a top Center?  Last question;  what are your predictions for Khovanov in his first year in the KHL?  I would really love to see him take a similar path as the 3 I mentioned in the previous post, though unlikely - but what is reasonable in his KHL year (15G and 15A)?  Lastly, I am cautiously optimistic about Adam Beckman and Calen Addison forcing the Wild to go young next year (since they may need to move Brodin or Dumba, another young forward or two, with a 2021 first rounder, assuming we have two, for a Center).  I make this assumption (post reading Crease and Assist's Five Points), and given that the expansion draft will need to be prepared for ASAP, in an effort to minimize our losses.  Watching Alex Tuch snipe the winner in OT for Vegas was painful to watch.....

[CreaseAndAssist]

I just can't.  Kuznetsov and Kucherov arrived on teams that have far more other talented players around them.  Kaprizov will have Fiala and that's really it and at this point, no decent center to work with.  IMO, that's a huge obstacle.  

[EmptyShelf]

The talent abyss is a very valid point.  However, I expect that Staal or a newly acquired Center can at least provide some play making ability for Kaprisov and Fiala to approach their respective capabilities.  Staal still showed to have something left in the tank this year and in playoffs, but he is going to have to train hard to gain a step like no other year, otherwise I expect he will lose the role to a new acquisition (EEK ain't getting it).  I would NOT split KF and KK up, even if there is a big drop-off to line two.  If you do so, both will suffer and become frustrated by the lack of talent across their line.  I EXPECT a significant trade this off-season for a better center, as it is a glaring hole (again), and I think we will be forced to trade some assets (D and F) to ready for expansion draft (and it is nice to have that extra 1st rounder - the Wild's own pick may be demanded in 2021, as it WILL likely be better than the one we get from Pittsburgh). 

[EmptyShelf]

C&A:  one other thing.  There was only one puck to share in Tampa and Washington for the last four years, and though there IS much more talent that Kuznetsov and Kucherov were joining, at least Kuznetsov has been a secondary goal scorer to 2-3 other players on their team (Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie) during most of his tenure.  This should NOT be the case on the Wild, as Fiala is barely established himself.  Someone will get the Wild goals next season and beyond, and it sure won't (or shouldn't) be Parise, EEK, Greenway, Kunin, Staal, or a Boldy sighting.  I think this increases the odds that Kaprisov will get goals and points at a similar or better rate than at least Kuznetsov.  We have seen Parise, Staal, Zucker, Granlund, and Neiderreiter approach or exceed 25G when given the top line minutes and reasonable time on the PP.  I think Kaprisov will prove to be as good or better than most of these players within a year or so.  Thus, my point on meeting the statistics of Kuznetsov.  Keeping pace with Kucherov, on the other hand, will be a lot more of a stretch until such time as the Wild talent improves drastically.

[CreaseAndAssist]

I don't think this team will have the cap space to entice a center to come here.  Taylor Hall is not going to want to come to Minnesota.  Beyond that, the UFA class for centers is pretty ugly.  

 

Staal at best at this point is a 2nd line center.  

[Alexandron]

Wow! Kirill Kaprizov is in Minnesota!!! according to the main Wild link. Head Coach Dean Evason welcomed him at the MSP airport on Monday, August 10th. afternoon. I found these news today.

Maybe the Wild team will start their training camp earlier this new season just to build a better chemistry and to develop a better communications between teammates?  I am sure many players will not be traveling far because of Covid restrictions which will give them more time to start training earlier. I hope some of the players will take Kirill Kaprizov fishing on some lakes (for example, Mille Lacs or Lake Superior for walleye or salmon fishing ) or at least to show how beauty is our Minnesota. It seems he likes fishing a lot!

[Alexandron]

On 8/9/2020 at 3:44 PM, CreaseAndAssist said:

I don't think this team will have the cap space to entice a center to come here.  Taylor Hall is not going to want to come to Minnesota.  Beyond that, the UFA class for centers is pretty ugly.  

 

Staal at best at this point is a 2nd line center.  

LIG, I was thinking that the Wild should use available Centers options in our team and will start building  some positive and creative chemistry with them during such a long period (3 months -September-October-November) before the new season will start on December,1st.

I took 2 young experienced available Centers in our team capable to bring some speed for the 1st line and compared their NHL stats.  

Victor Rask (27 y.o., drafted in 2011;2nd round;42nd overall) played in NHL 405 games (70 goals; 109 assists; 179 points; +/- - 27).

Alex Galchenyuk (26 y.o.; Wisconsin native; speaks also Russian because of his roots in Belarus; drafted in 2012; 1st round ;3rd overall) played in NHL 549 games (135 goals; 185 assists;320 points; +/- - 58). Despite of his not superb overall +/- stats, he had with Minnesota +/- +2 in 14 games(3 goals;4 assists;7 points). Interesting fact also, that Galchenyuk's father played for different teams in USSR and Russia (Dinamo Minsk; Dinamo Moscow; Avangard Omsk, SKA St.Petersburg) as well as USSR team; Belorussian team, and for few Italian teams too. 

In my opinion, I would try to use first as a center Alex Galchenyuk(1st round;3 overall)because of his better productive consistency  in Fiala - Kaprizov 1st line. He also could be helping in communication between Fiala and Kaprizov. Interesting that Fiala and Kaprizov could play both sides LW and RW.

 

[Alexandron]

On 8/9/2020 at 3:44 PM, CreaseAndAssist said:

Staal at best at this point is a 2nd line center.  

Then we should have an oldish less speedy, but definitely capable to produce 2nd line:

Parise(LW) - Staal(C)- Zuccarello (RW). They were able to put goals last season 25-19-15 respectively (total 59 goals) .

 

The biggest dilemma for me 3rd and 4th lines. Who we should use  to make some nice production out of these lines? Lots of variations. Maybe we should use as a 3rd line the line with already built chemistry from AHL? Rau-Anas-Mayhew. Last year they placed 14-20-39 goals respectively(total 73 goals). Let's them try that option. Possibly, they could try to repeat last year record in the Wild uniform..

 

4th line , probably, should be more defensively minded Foligno(LW) - EEK ( C)- Kunin (RW). Goals  respectively were last season 11- 8 -15 (total 34 goals).

Or be developed into a more productive line like Donato- Johnson- Sokolov. 14 - 18- 15 goals had last season respectively ( total 47 goals).                                                                                                                                   

 

[CreaseAndAssist]

Zuccarello sucks.  He just does.  He got his contract, his motivation is zilch.  Parise, I don't think he really wants to be here anymore either.  He wants a chance to win a Stanley Cup and if that's the Wild's 2nd line then we don't stand a chance.  

[Alexandron]

On 8/25/2020 at 7:13 PM, CreaseAndAssist said:

Zuccarello sucks.  He just does.  He got his contract, his motivation is zilch.  Parise, I don't think he really wants to be here anymore either.  He wants a chance to win a Stanley Cup and if that's the Wild's 2nd line then we don't stand a chance.  

I still think that 2nd line could bring some good benefits for the team. Zuccarello stats pretty similar to Galchenyuk stats, even his total +/- stats are better +31; but with the Wild was -9. In 576 NHL games he has 129 goals;263 assists;not bad at all 392 points. Last year with the Wild team he had 15 goals;22 assists;37 points in 65 games. Probably, with a new GM Bill Guerin (like him a lot,because he is not afraid anything and really like changing routines;he also is a 2 Stanley Cup winner) that line will have a better motivation to play for a trophy - Stanley Cup.

[jammer2]

Glad to see Kirill in the fold. He will get top pp duty etc...but as mentioned...needs surrounding talent badly. Blow this thing up and get in the bottom 4 of the lottery. You guys deserve so much better than this hockey purgatory.

[CreaseAndAssist]

On 8/29/2020 at 1:31 PM, jammer2 said:

Glad to see Kirill in the fold. He will get top pp duty etc...but as mentioned...needs surrounding talent badly. Blow this thing up and get in the bottom 4 of the lottery. You guys deserve so much better than this hockey purgatory.

 

#EmbraceTheTank  Yea, the Wild are not doing themselves any favors by being too good for the lottery but not good enough to do anything if they do eek their way into the playoffs.  

[IllaZilla]

2 hours ago, CreaseAndAssist said:

 

#EmbraceTheTank  Yea, the Wild are not doing themselves any favors by being too good for the lottery but not good enough to do anything if they do eek their way into the playoffs.  

But...but...all you need to do is get into the Playoffs! Isn’t that what everyone says? It’s better to get into the Playoffs than tank, because the Playoffs is a whole new season and anyone can win it, but there’s no guarantee that tanking will get you a great player...

Edited August 31, 2020 by IllaZilla

[EmptyShelf]

Exactly.  You back into the playoffs so the owner can collect a few bucks, the sheep feel included in the enthusiasm of said playoffs, you miss out on premier talent, and you repeat the process over and over until your franchise stagnates.  Sounds just like the Wild.  I am all for a two year purge and tanking exercise.  A fire sale is LONG overdue with respect to this team - a Tear Down, or liquidation - "All things must go, no reasonable offer refused."  Smart GMs with guts (and a learned owner) would commit to doing so, and thereby breaking the cycle.

[jammer2]

3 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

But...but...all you need to do is get into the Playoffs! Isn’t that what everyone says? It’s better to get into the Playoffs than tank, because the Playoffs is a whole new season and anyone can win it, but there’s no guarantee that tanking will get you a great player...

Yes, anything can happen...but where do the goals come from? Even less room to maneuver...less ice for the few skill players you have. I would not only tank, I would almost give away Stall and Co just to create cap space...that is the new currency. Before the rona, Hurricanes got a first for taking on 5 mill in Marleaus salary...that return might just go up with lack of a cap increase. 

 

 You can hope Greenway magically turns into John Druce ...or...tank and restart. 

[CreaseAndAssist]

Well the Wild had a chance to deal Staal and get a 1st round pick and Sean Kuraly in return just two years ago.  Instead Fenton decided to keep Staal at a slightly reduced rate but gave him a modified no trade clause because he was all out of jelly beans or M&M's on his desk.  

 

Staal can stick around.  He's still pretty affordable and quite frankly we don't really have anyone waiting in the wings to replace him.  Let his contract play out this year and then move on.  In fact, I wouldn't be buying out anyone.  No sense burning cap space on buyouts if we already know this will probably be a rough season coming up.  IMO, it would be more productive to try to move Parise; even if we have to take a bad but shorter term contract back in return.  

 

But beyond that...this team should also consider clearing out the clutter that doesn't fit the faster, younger mentality.  If you're not going to play fast, play hard...see ya!  

 

My guess is we see them possibly move Greenway or maybe even Ek too if it gets them a player this team really wants.  Ek's a 3rd line center, but you could say the same for Nico Sturm.  Right now, Sturm is cheaper.  

[Alexandron]

2 hours ago, CreaseAndAssist said:

Well the Wild had a chance to deal Staal and get a 1st round pick and Sean Kuraly in return just two years ago.  Instead Fenton decided to keep Staal at a slightly reduced rate but gave him a modified no trade clause because he was all out of jelly beans or M&M's on his desk.  

 

Staal can stick around.  He's still pretty affordable and quite frankly we don't really have anyone waiting in the wings to replace him.  Let his contract play out this year and then move on.  In fact, I wouldn't be buying out anyone.  No sense burning cap space on buyouts if we already know this will probably be a rough season coming up.  IMO, it would be more productive to try to move Parise; even if we have to take a bad but shorter term contract back in return.  

 

But beyond that...this team should also consider clearing out the clutter that doesn't fit the faster, younger mentality.  If you're not going to play fast, play hard...see ya!  

 

My guess is we see them possibly move Greenway or maybe even Ek too if it gets them a player this team really wants.  Ek's a 3rd line center, but you could say the same for Nico Sturm.  Right now, Sturm is cheaper.  

Agree. Probably, to look for a talented player with a strong offensively minded skills.

[IllaZilla]

13 hours ago, jammer2 said:

Yes, anything can happen...but where do the goals come from? Even less room to maneuver...less ice for the few skill players you have. I would not only tank, I would almost give away Stall and Co just to create cap space...that is the new currency. Before the rona, Hurricanes got a first for taking on 5 mill in Marleaus salary...that return might just go up with lack of a cap increase. 

 

 You can hope Greenway magically turns into John Druce ...or...tank and restart. 

 

I'm being facetious. 

 

I find it humorous the people that eschew the tank because "the draft is a crap shoot and there is no guarantee the player you pick will turn out" don't have a problem with "Just get into the Playoffs, anything can happen!". Even though there is no guarantee the team you support will win a single game.

[CreaseAndAssist]

8 minutes ago, IllaZilla said:

 

I'm being facetious. 

 

I find it humorous the people that eschew the tank because "the draft is a crap shoot and there is no guarantee the player you pick will turn out" don't have a problem with "Just get into the Playoffs, anything can happen!". Even though there is no guarantee the team you support will win a single game.

 

As they say on the Common Man Progrum, "Just get into the Playoffs, anything can happen!?!" IALTO.  Free agency usually only guarantees teams will throw stupid money at players they shouldn't.  Its why I'd stay pretty quiet on the free agency front and instead do what I could with trades that focus on getting younger and faster.  

 

Its either that, or I start over again by becoming a full-time Kraken fan.    

[IllaZilla]

1 minute ago, CreaseAndAssist said:

 

As they say on the Common Man Progrum, "Just get into the Playoffs, anything can happen!?!" IALTO.  Free agency usually only guarantees teams will throw stupid money at players they shouldn't.  Its why I'd stay pretty quiet on the free agency front and instead do what I could with trades that focus on getting younger and faster.  

 

Its either that, or I start over again by becoming a full-time Kraken fan.    

 

Whether FanBoy #1 wants to admit it or not, his team needs a rebuild. Not a tweak, not a twerk, a rebuild. He rolled the dice with the Holy Trinity of Parise, Koivu and Suter and came up snake-eyes.

 

The team needs to do something different. This building around veterans hasn't worked, unless their only goal was to make the Playoffs. If so, then Mission: Accomplished. But if the goal was to be a Cup contender or even a Cup winner, then it's time to abort mission...

[CreaseAndAssist]

2 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

 

Whether FanBoy #1 wants to admit it or not, his team needs a rebuild. Not a tweak, not a twerk, a rebuild. He rolled the dice with the Holy Trinity of Parise, Koivu and Suter and came up snake-eyes.

 

The team needs to do something different. This building around veterans hasn't worked, unless their only goal was to make the Playoffs. If so, then Mission: Accomplished. But if the goal was to be a Cup contender or even a Cup winner, then it's time to abort mission...

 

100% agreed.  Want to write an editorial something to that effect?    

[IllaZilla]

11 minutes ago, CreaseAndAssist said:

 

100% agreed.  Want to write an editorial something to that effect?    

Sure! I’ve been itching to do something other than all this COVID-19 response stuff...

[EmptyShelf]

6 hours ago, IllaZilla said:

 

Whether FanBoy #1 wants to admit it or not, his team needs a rebuild. Not a tweak, not a twerk, a rebuild. He rolled the dice with the Holy Trinity of Parise, Koivu and Suter and came up snake-eyes.

 

The team needs to do something different. This building around veterans hasn't worked, unless their only goal was to make the Playoffs. If so, then Mission: Accomplished. But if the goal was to be a Cup contender or even a Cup winner, then it's time to abort mission...

Totally agree.  So, how do we get CL to see the TRUTH staring him in the face?  Or, how do we get the sheep that always fill the Xcel to see the reality the Wild face?  THAT is the problem.  Watching the seals (in matching jerseys) clap relentlessly while 9, 11, and 20 were introduced made the bile rise in my throat.  Not a savvy group - Wild fans. 

[Alexandron]

Let's rebuild an optimism in that topic. Let's be more positive - life is too short to worry about who is too slow and ineffective. We should think more about developing talents in our team. Look how nicely bloomed Fiala this year in our club. And we have Kaprizov now in our club too. That is a new blood,a new mentality, a new approach to the success of our team based on his recent experience. Let's build the team around him and Fiala. Koivu will be gone. Hope by the help of the brave GM and a new coach, the rest of the players will change their motivation to play better, more productive or if not, then they will be replaced sooner or later.  Just time is matter. Wish to have few more Russian players in our team to build even more drive and intrigue, like Dallas and Colorado have 3 in each team (superb their round#2 of the playoffs). As well as because of that I like Flyers and Tampa teams too - nice drives. They all having a good success these playoffs.

I also started to think more and more during these playoffs about the importance of the leadership by the team's coach. Here is an example, the Washington Capitals team had for 2 years a  new head coach Todd Reirden after they not made an agreement with Barry Trotz who brought the team to the Stanley Cup in 2018. That team with Reirden was pretty successful during the both regular seasons 2019 and 2020, but was failed during the first rounds of playoffs. And a Capitals GM recently fired Reirden , because out of 8 playoffs games the team won just 2 this year. The explanation was very simple - it was not enough leadership coming out of the coach Reirden. And look how former Capitals coach Barry Trotz doing with his new team New York Islanders - no questions - amazing job these playoffs. Maybe we should do the same way rule. If the coach did not improved the team in 2 years, then GM should fire him for a better one. 

And the Edmonton is still rebuilding their team for the last 15 years by having lots of #1 drafts but they still in that mode. Leadership should come , first of all, from the head - head coach, who must to make a crucial right decisions. As well as I know a very popular phrase too - fish starts spoiling from the head.