Auston Matthews (hypothezided )50-Goal Season - The Actual Projected Stats

[WordsOfWisdom]

Thought this belonged in the Leafs section:

 

AM had 47 goals in 70 gp. That's ~0.67 GPG. He played in every game for the Leafs this season.

 

Doing some statistical analysis, if we treat the final 12 games as a random sample and do a binomial distribution on the goals, we get the following:

 

n = 12 trials

p = probability of success per trial = 0.67

q = probability of failure per trial = 1 - p = 1 - 0.67 = 0.33

x = Number of successes in n trials where (goal = success)

 

b(x; n, p) = (nCx)(p^x)[q^(n-x)] 

 

b(0; 12, 0.67) = (12C0)(0.67^0)(0.33^12) ~= 0.000

b(1; 12, 0.67) = (12C1)(0.67^1)(0.33^11) ~= 0.000

b(2; 12, 0.67) = (12C2)(0.67^2)(0.33^10) ~= 0.000

b(3; 12, 0.67) = (12C3)(0.67^3)(0.33^9) ~= 0.003

b(4; 12, 0.67) = (12C4)(0.67^4)(0.33^8) ~= 0.014

b(5; 12, 0.67) = (12C5)(0.67^5)(0.33^7) ~= 0.046

b(6; 12, 0.67) = (12C6)(0.67^6)(0.33^6) ~= 0.108

b(7; 12, 0.67) = (12C7)(0.67^7)(0.33^5) ~= 0.188

b(8; 12, 0.67) = (12C8)(0.67^8)(0.33^4) ~= 0.238

b(9; 12, 0.67) = (12C9)(0.67^9)(0.33^3) ~= 0.215

b(10; 12, 0.67) = (12C10)(0.67^10)(0.33^2) ~= 0.131

b(11; 12, 0.67) = (12C11)(0.67^11)(0.33^1) ~= 0.048

b(12; 12, 0.67) = (12C12)(0.67^12)(0.33^0) ~= 0.008

 

From this data we can conclude the following:

 

• AM had a better chance of getting 12 more goals to finish the season than he had of getting 0, 1, 2, or 3 more goals.
• AM's most likely outcome was to score 8 more goals (47 + 8 = 55 goals) and he had a 23.8% chance of doing that.
• Next most likely outcomes are 9 more goals at a 21.5% chance and 7 more goals at a 18.8% chance. 
• AM had an 88% chance of finishing in the range of 6-10 more goals.
• AM's probability of scoring 3 or more goals (to reach 50 on the season) was 1 - ~0.001 = 0.999 or 99.9%

 

So while Vaive's record may be in doubt (coin toss on whether he would have tied it or broke it), there's no doubt Matthews would have got to 50 goals.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2020 by pilldoc

[flyercanuck]

I'm feeling a sense of deja vu here for some reason.

[intheslot]

If's and butts..

[pilldoc]

Regular season ended at 70 games.  HE DID NOT REACH 50 GOALS ... PERIOD END OF STORY.....

 

To continue on is meaningless dribble......did he have a shot at 50..sure and probably would have gotten there.  However the Official NHL STATS do not include projected numbers....

 

Move along nothing else to see here .....

[Podein25]

I once scored four goals in a game. My projected career goal total is a brazilian 

[J0e Th0rnton]

but he didn't lol

[WordsOfWisdom]

11 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

I'm feeling a sense of deja vu here for some reason.

 

Well this post is in its rightful place in the Leafs section, so that's a positive, and it's the actual analysis this time.   

[WordsOfWisdom]

10 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Regular season ended at 70 games.  HE DID NOT REACH 50 GOALS ... PERIOD END OF STORY.....

 

That's my point. It ended on a technicality.  He would have got to 50 goals easily had it played to completion.

 

10 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Move along nothing else to see here .....

 

This is about seeing where he was most likely to end up.  

 

10 hours ago, pilldoc said:

did he have a shot at 50..sure and probably would have gotten there.

 

That's my point. He was a lock for 50 goals. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

4 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

but he didn't lol

 

Technically he didn't...... but realistically he did.

 

The only real question is whether or not he would have got the Leafs all-time record. 

 

People wonder why I'm making a big deal out of this..... well did Oilers fans make a big deal out of Wayne Gretzky?  Was it impressive to watch him shatter records in Edmonton? 

 

AM is the best goal scorer the Leafs have had in ~25 years..... and he might be the best goal scorer the franchise has EVER had. 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

Who added the word "hypothesized" on the thread title??  Come on now.  

 

He made it to 50.  It's a lock. 99.9% probability means he got it.  Until I did the binomial distribution, I didn't know just how lob-sided it would be, but that proved it. He did it. It's not 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, no........  it's 99.9/0.01.  He did it. 

 

Editing the post makes it look like I wrote that word, and I didn't, so you're essentially changing my message. The thread title is: "Auston Matthews 50-goal season, The actual projected stats."  And it's here in the Leafs section where non-Leafs fans can safely ignore it.  

 

 

Edited July 19, 2020 by WordsOfWisdom

[pilldoc]

3 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

That's my point. He was a lock for 50 goals. 

but he didn’t get 50 .... the “official” NHL stats will say he got 47 because that is what he “physically “ scored.... I can find 47 highlights of his goals for this season... there are not 50 highlights... you can’t count 3 phantom goals that physically never occurred...

 

regardless... I’m done here. Several  million people will read his stat line at 47 for the 2019-20 season and they won’t give a rip about what you think.

 

I dare you to petition the NHL to change his stats then if you think you are right....

 

Regardless... I’m done here... Not worth my time or energy in arguing  about something that did not happen and only exists in someone’s fallacy.....

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

16 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

but he didn’t get 50 .... the “official” NHL stats will say he got 47 because that is what he “physically “ scored.... I can find 47 highlights of his goals for this season... there are not 50 highlights... you can’t count 3 phantom goals that physically never occurred...

 

You're missing the point.  Everyone here is missing the point. 

 

16 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

regardless... I’m done here. Several  million people will read his stat line at 47 for the 2019-20 season and they won’t give a rip about what you think.

 

Actually, I think people -- if they're Leafs fans (ie: die-hard, knowledgeable fans) -- will see this season from Matthews and acknowledge that it's the best season any Leafs goal scorer has ever had, right up there with Rick Vaive and Frank Mahovlich. 

 

 

 

There's no need to get upset. It isn't about what you think personally, it's about what Leafs fans think. It's about where AM is within the century old history of Leafs nation.  Leafs fans won't ever forget the season he had. You keep talking "47" as if that means something. Leafs fans will be talking "55", "56", etc.  We don't see the numbers the same way you do.   

Edited July 19, 2020 by WordsOfWisdom

[flyercanuck]

Matthews could also have stepped on the ice for his next shift in game 71 and had a career ending injury. It's why you actually have to accomplish the records to get them.

 

 Reggie Leach scored 61 goals in a season....drunk! Does that mean he scored 71 in WordsofWisdom format? Or 81?

[WordsOfWisdom]

5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Matthews could also have stepped on the ice for his next shift in game 71 and had a career ending injury.

 

Sure but was that likely to happen?  No.

 

You continue to take the position that the outcome here was in doubt, when statistically speaking, it was never in doubt.

 

6 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Reggie Leach scored 61 goals in a season....drunk! Does that mean he scored 71 in WordsofWisdom format? Or 81?

 

A player's personal demons (these guys ----->>>>  ) are who they are.  If Leach scored 61 goals as a drunk, then he's a drunken 61 goal scorer. Simple as that. Booze and 61 goals are who he is.  Matthews was sitting at 47 goals en route to 55/56 goals until COVID-19 cut the season short. He wasn't injured. He played in 70 of 82 games due to circumstances beyond his control. 

 

Any rational person would acknowledge that Matthews was a lock for 50 goals and that he would have likely either tied or broken Vaive's team record for goals in a season. That's the point.   

 

But here's the ultimate test:

 

When I punch the numbers into my hockey simulator, guess how the simulator sees Auston Matthews?

 

I put in 47 goals, xxx SOG (whatever), 70 GP,  20:00 ATOI (whatever), and the simulator translates that into his TRUE performance:

 

That his shooting percentage is G/SOG, and that he gets a SOG every  SOG/TTOI minutes, that he plays ATOI minutes per game, and that over a full 82 game season, he scores 55/56 goals, not 47.  

 

 

 

[flyercanuck]

8 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

 

 

But here's the ultimate test:

 

When I punch the numbers into my hockey simulator, guess how the simulator sees Auston Matthews?

 

 

 

 

 

 

My hockey simulator had the Oilers drafting 1st overall in 2016....hows that working out for them? Think they'd be better with Matthews or Laine than Poolparty?

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 7/19/2020 at 11:53 AM, flyercanuck said:

 

My hockey simulator had the Oilers drafting 1st overall in 2016....hows that working out for them? Think they'd be better with Matthews or Laine than Poolparty?

 

Guess what?  If the NHL doesn't play a full season next year, Matthews is going to get his SECOND (projected) 50-goal season, and I'm going to make ANOTHER Matthews thread talking about how he's the first Leafs player to score back-to-back (projected) 50-goal seasons since...... ?

 

(There's some trivia for fellow Leafs fans.)   

[flyercanuck]

9 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Guess what?  If the NHL doesn't play a full season next year, Matthews is going to get his SECOND (projected) 50-goal season, and I'm going to make ANOTHER Matthews thread talking about how he's the first Leafs player to score back-to-back (projected) 50-goal seasons since...... ?

 

(There's some trivia for fellow Leafs fans.)   

 

I have no doubt.

[pilldoc]

16 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Guess what?  If the NHL doesn't play a full season next year, Matthews is going to get his SECOND (projected) 50-goal season, and I'm going to make ANOTHER Matthews thread talking about how he's the first Leafs player to score back-to-back (projected) 50-goal seasons since...... ?

 

Hmmm ...  you might want to do some research before you make some outlandish comments. See the following graphic below ....  https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/TOR/leaders_season.html

 

One Rick Vaive actually and physically scored 50+ goals not once, not twice, but actually 3 years in a row. (1981-82, 1982-83, and 1983-84) to be exact. 

Matter of fact Vaive did it in a 80 game season NOT 82.  Wendel Clark really gets the short end of the straw as he had 46 goals in just 64 games which would have projected to 59 goals!

 

Player Goals  Games Season   Projected in 82 games Rick Vaive 54 77 1981-82 (80)   58 Dave Andreychuck 53 83 1993-94 (84)   52 Rick Vaive 52 76 1983-84 (80)   56 Rick Vaive 51 78 1982-83 (80)   54 Gary Leeman 51 80 1989-90 (80)   52 Frank Mahovlich 48 70 1960-61 (70)   56 Lanny McDonald 47 74 1977-78 (80)   52 John Tavres 47 82 2018-19 (82)   47 Austin Matthews 47 70 2019-20 (70)   55 Wendel Clark 46 64 1993-94 (84)   59 Lanny McDonald 46 80 1976-77 (80)   47

Officially the NHL was suspended indefinitely on March 12, 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and nn May 22, 2020, the NHL and National Hockey League Players' Association (NHLPA) agreed to a framework for the resumption of play, which would see the remainder of the regular season scrapped.  That means the number of games played by that team is the OFFICIAL RECORD for that team.  The Leafs played 70 games.  that is official.  Notice nowhere does the NHLPA endorse pro-rated stats.  Period end of story.

Now it was cute and you had your fun and got your laffs that you want to think that AM scored 50 goals this year when physically he did not.  Your charade has gone on long enough.  Simply stated he physically did not score 50+ goals this season and that is all that matters.  Pro-Rated stats mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.  Season awards are not based on them and monetary contracts are not based on them. 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by pilldoc
I edited out portion of the post

[J0e Th0rnton]

It doesn't matter what you hypothetically think he would have scored.

 

in the end, are you going to say it was a great season? the answer is yes.

 

Does your opinion matter to anyone but you? not really. if you think he scored that, then be happy you got a great player.

 

The NHL will never acknowledge a player for something he did not do tho. If you think they will start a social media poll and see if you can pick up any sort of notice.

[JR Ewing]

16 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

It doesn't matter what you hypothetically think he would have scored.

 

in the end, are you going to say it was a great season? the answer is yes.

 

 

That's where I am on this. Matthews' 47 goal season was better than any of Vaive's 50 goal seasons; scored in an environment which was offensively lower than any of those in which Vaive put up his best numbers. That doesn't make it a 50 goal year, but it WAS better.

 

[JR Ewing]

On 7/18/2020 at 9:07 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

People wonder why I'm making a big deal out of this..... well did Oilers fans make a big deal out of Wayne Gretzky?  Was it impressive to watch him shatter records in Edmonton? 

 

Of course it was impressive; but that's because Gretzky actually did those things. Look, I *am* sympathetic to the cause to a certain extent. Leon Draisaitl was on pace to score the most points since Lemieux put up 161 in 1996, but what happened is what happened, and he simply didn't do it. Do I think Matthews would have scored 50? Yes. Did he? No.

 

On 7/18/2020 at 9:07 PM, WordsOfWisdom said:

AM is the best goal scorer the Leafs have had in ~25 years..... and he might be the best goal scorer the franchise has EVER had. 

 

 

Yes to the first one, no to the second. Charlie Conacher led the NHL in goal scoring 5 times.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Hmmm ...  you might want to do some research before you make some outlandish comments.

 

I don't think you actually READ any of the stuff I wrote. You've just got the "butthurt" level turned up to maximum and I'm curious WHY you're in the Leafs section of the forum telling me what I can/can't write for Leafs-related thread topics!

 

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

One Rick Vaive actually and physically scored 50+ goals not once, not twice, but actually 3 years in a row. (1981-82, 1982-83, and 1983-84) to be exact. 

 

I guess it was a fairly simple trivia question lol.    

 

Here's why I hate those Vaive records: While Vaive was just barely hitting 50 goals back in the 80's, Gretzky (and others - Mogilny, Selanne, Hull, Yzerman, etc...) were hitting 60, 70, 80, 90, etc...  

 

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Matter of fact Vaive did it in a 80 game season NOT 82.  Wendel Clark really gets the short end of the straw as he had 46 goals in just 64 games which would have projected to 59 goals!

 

Player Goals  Games Season   Projected in 82 games Rick Vaive 54 77 1981-82 (80)   58 Dave Andreychuck 53 83 1993-94 (84)   52 Rick Vaive 52 76 1983-84 (80)   56 Rick Vaive 51 78 1982-83 (80)   54 Gary Leeman 51 80 1989-90 (80)   52 Frank Mahovlich 48 70 1960-61 (70)   56 Lanny McDonald 47 74 1977-78 (80)   52 John Tavres 47 82 2018-19 (82)   47 Austin Matthews 47 70 2019-20 (70)   55 Wendel Clark 46 64 1993-94 (84)   59 Lanny McDonald 46 80 1976-77 (80)   47

 

Wendel Clark was d@mn impressive, but his season was affected by injuries I believe. That wasn't a lockout year was it?  

 

However, look at the list of names you posted and look who's on it (Matthews)..... and more importantly, look who's not on it!  No sign of Mats Sundin, Full Kessel, Mike Gartner, Doug Gilmour, etc....  Lots of big name Leafs players have never come close to doing what Matthews already has.   

 

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Officially the NHL was suspended indefinitely on March 12, 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and nn May 22, 2020, the NHL and National Hockey League Players' Association (NHLPA) agreed to a framework for the resumption of play, which would see the remainder of the regular season scrapped.  That means the number of games played by that team is the OFFICIAL RECORD for that team.  The Leafs played 70 games.  that is official.  Notice nowhere does the NHLPA endorse pro-rated stats.  Period end of story.

 

We all know that. I'm not interested in what the shortened total was. I'm interested in where he was headed. Where Matthews was headed is much more interesting. 

 

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

Now it was cute and you had your fun and got your laffs that you want to think that AM scored 50 goals this year when physically he did not.  Your charade has gone on long enough.

 

comment removed (abusive)

 

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

However, this is a very feeble attempt at trolling and will cease.  Besides the standard definition of trolling, trolling can also be defined as: (1) Refusal to acknowledge evidence: Even when presented with hard, cold facts, they ignore this and pretend like they never saw it. (2) Seeming obliviousness: They seem oblivious that most people are in disagreement with them.

 

Both of which are very prevalent here in this thread.  Now you have a choice to make.  You can either discuss what a great season AM had and that it is disappointing he did not have a chance at scoring 50+ goals this season even though he was on pace for it, or you can continue this charade that you are going to argue that the he DID score 50+ goals this season and risk this thread being closed.   The choice is yours.

 

What YOU are doing to me is trolling. Trolling is the act of sabotaging/derailing threads created by other people in order to squash discussion. YOU are the troll here, not me.

 

I am the moderator of the Leafs section and I can discuss whatever LEAFS-related topic I feel like. I haven't violated any forum rules. If you don't like it, then don't read it. Nobody is forcing to come into the Leafs section and troll my threads. 

 

You clearly aren't getting the message that I'm making with these threads and frankly I don't care. I don't write for YOU. I don't think about what YOU would like to see when I make a post. I write for the entire world of interested hockey fans.

 

If this thread gets locked (by anyone other than me), I will be gone from this forum forever.  I'm not going to tolerate your censorship of my hockey opinion. You're not a Leafs fan. You don't get to judge my hockey related opinions when they disagree with yours. Period.

 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by pilldoc
comment edited for abusive nature

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

It doesn't matter what you hypothetically think he would have scored.

 

Agree to disagree lol.   

 

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

in the end, are you going to say it was a great season? the answer is yes

 

You can't make that assessment until you allow for the point above. (Otherwise what are you basing that opinion on?)  See the conundrum?   

 

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Does your opinion matter to anyone but you? not really. if you think he scored that, then be happy you got a great player.

 

With more Leafs fans in this forum you would have an awakening lol.  

 

1 hour ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

The NHL will never acknowledge a player for something he did not do tho.

 

That's why it's up to the fans to do so!   

[pilldoc]

4 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I'm curious WHY you're in the Leafs section of the forum telling me what I can/can't write for Leafs-related thread topics!

 

Because I am a Mod that oversees then entire forum (that is part of our duty) ...do you you really want to argue that point.

 

5 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Here's why I hate those Vaive records: While Vaive was just barely hitting 50 goals back in the 80's, Gretzky (and others - Mogilny, Selanne, Hull, Yzerman, etc...) were hitting 60, 70, 80, 90, etc... 

 

But its ok to pro-rate stats on a player that hasn't physically hit 50 goals.  Your statement was about Leaf players ...do I really need to remind you of what you typed ....  you are cherry picking stats/players

7 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

WTF are you talking about?  I'm giving him credit for 50 because if the season had run to completion at 82 games, he would have got it. Shouldn't you be in the Flyers section right now? Seriously dude, you're getting on my nerves. Piss off!

 

No he did not score 50..end of story..

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, JR Ewing said:

 

That's where I am on this. Matthews' 47 goal season was better than any of Vaive's 50 goal seasons; scored in an environment which was offensively lower than any of those in which Vaive put up his best numbers. That doesn't make it a 50 goal year, but it WAS better.

 

 

Agreed.  That's why I believe the next innovation for sports stats is going to be projection-based records/milestones.  Given the frequency of cancelled seasons, the variance in season length over the years, etc..... the only reasonable way to compare players is to compare their trajectories.