Can Vaccine save the NHL season?

[radoran]

21 hours ago, pilldoc said:

only ~60% of the population will want to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.

 

That number has consistently gone up. I saw an interview with a infectious disease expert who noted that if the question is phrased as "would you take the vaccine right now" the answer might be "no" but that might not be reflective of where we might be in, say, March-June when many will have already gotten it and wider ranging side effects might be more evident.

 

2 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

Im fine with the mask.

 

But a vaccine that we have no 3 to 5 year long term effect data on? Not fine. Im also passing.

 

Im not an anti vax guy by any stretch. Im fine with time tested stuff like measles/mumps/rubella , the flu vaccine.

 

But despite technological advances, you don't have long term effect studies till, well, you study long term effects and rolling it out in this manner isn't.

 

There is also the question of long term efficacy. There simply hasn't been enough time to know. We'll be continually learning more for some time to come, possible years. If the vaccine has to be continually re-taken (as with the flu, for example) then that will impact the availability.

 

I don't expect to be offered the chance to vaccinate for the next 4-6 months and will make the decision when it's time to do so.

 

Either that or

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by radoran

[Math]

My crystal ball is brown and dirty like ****, but I can see something like a proof of vaccination to enter the building, like the condition required to go to Australia for instance. You got your shot, then you're welcome. And maybe the same thing will apply (at least in the beginning) for restaurants/bars/museums/etc.

[pilldoc]

2 hours ago, Villette/Lavaux said:

My crystal ball is brown and dirty like ****, but I can see something like a proof of vaccination to enter the building, like the condition required to go to Australia for instance. You got your shot, then you're welcome. And maybe the same thing will apply (at least in the beginning) for restaurants/bars/museums/etc.

 

That is a very interesting proposition.....  I could see a possible scenario happening  and i can see it being argued in the courts.

[J0e Th0rnton]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

 

That is a very interesting proposition.....  I could see a possible scenario happening  and i can see it being argued in the courts.

Its a very frightening proposition.

 

My body my choice.

 

Forcing someone by proxy of making them unable to live normally or send their kids to school or likely work if workplaces jump on board forcing employees to guinea pig or they can't come to work is still forcing. Its no different than having 4 big guys hold you down while forcibly injecting you.

 

Only the most vulnerable need this vaccine. To most people its a bad cold or a mild flu. If the most vulnerable get it and it works it becomes less of problem than the flu overnight.

 

At least 75% of the people I work with don't want to get this vaccine until long term studies are done

[mojo1917]

 

Kind of a catch-22, we don't know the long term effects of COVID-19, nor do we understand why it reacts differently in different people. Why do some people only get "flu like symptoms"?, why do others die? why are there "long haulers" like this poor lady?

 

So while it would be ideal to "wait" for 3 year study results...is it worth the risk?

My answer is no. I haven't heard about the vaccine killing anyone, I have heard about COVID-19 killing people, seemingly randomly, for 10 months now. 

 

So does one roll the dice with a true unknown or the partially known that has killed almost 1 in 100 who've contracted it ?

[JR Ewing]

2 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

 

Kind of a catch-22, we don't know the long term effects of COVID-19, nor do we understand why it reacts differently in different people. Why do some people only get "flu like symptoms"?, why do others die? why are there "long haulers" like this poor lady?

 

So while it would be ideal to "wait" for 3 year study results...is it worth the risk?

My answer is no. I haven't heard about the vaccine killing anyone, I have heard about COVID-19 killing people, seemingly randomly, for 10 months now. 

 

So does one roll the dice with a true unknown or the partially known that has killed almost 1 in 100 who've contracted it ?

 

Given the state of affairs, if they told me that the vaccine only works if they inject you in the taint, my pants would be down in a New York minute.

 

[flyercanuck]

There's a reason we don't have discussions on here about losing loved ones to smallpox, diptheria, polio etc. It's because our parents and their parents didn't pull the "I have the right NOT to vaccinate" card. 

 

 Christ, look what handwashing, masks and flu shots have done for the flu this year. Anybody had it? Know anyone who has? Not sure about the US but we've have zero cases of community circulated influenza. The last time I heard the actual numbers, it was 17. SEVENTEEN. In Canada. And that's with increased testing. There's usually 17 in every single clinic waiting room at this time of year.

[OccamsRazor]

On 12/14/2020 at 11:15 AM, J0e Th0rnton said:

But a vaccine that we have no 3 to 5 year long term effect data on?

 

There isn't no real set time for this it just has several phases it must go through that takes it so long.

 

You phase 1, 2 and 3 and after 3 it gets licensed and moves onto phase 4.

 

All this just typically takes at least two years to go through.

 

I don't know all the ins and outs of all the testing side of it.

 

I work in pharmaceuticals on the product developmental side of it a lot. In fact we are running a covid test run as I type this (very temperature sensitive stuff we are making).

 

Right now it's a -9 degree run and then try it even colder later in the week.

 

I am waiting for my development team to get here.

 

But i deal with making the batches of medicines/vaccines side.

 

Long story short I will not be taking this unless I am on my death bed. My personal preference for me and my family.

 

I haven't had a flu shot since bootcamp in 1990.

 

Interesting this morning I was reading there is a whole new strain of this thing that has been discovered in England.

 

More details to come.

[radoran]

59 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

You phase 1, 2 and 3 and after 3 it gets licensed and moves onto phase 4.

 

All this just typically takes at least two years to go through.

 

There's also the fact that there's no way to know how long the vaccine is effective and what the long term effects might be until you actually get to those time frames. For example, we can't say it's effective after two years when you only have data for six months.

 

That said, that's not a reason to not roll it out and not a reason to "not get it." With any luck we can be back to some semblance of "normal" by the end of next summer but it will still look different than the BeforeTime.

 

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

Long story short I will not be taking this unless I am on my death bed. My personal preference for me and my family.

 

I haven't had a flu shot since bootcamp in 1990.

 

I don't think I've ever had a flu shot - but as has been said many times this is not the flu. And I don't think a preventative vaccine will "help" if you're on your death bed. That said, Hopkins hasn't sent me my epidemiological certification yet.

 

And as I've said previously, I likely don't have to decide whether or not to get it for the next 4-6 months.

 

So I'm not deciding.

[OccamsRazor]

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

There's also the fact that there's no way to know how long the vaccine is effective and what the long term effects might be until you actually get to those time frames. For example, we can't say it's effective after two years when you only have data for six months.

 

Oh absolutely.

 

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

That said, that's not a reason to not roll it out and not a reason to "not get it."

 

Sure maybe for those who ate staring death in the face by all means then try it.

 

But for myself I will pass.

 

And you each their own.

 

Everyone will have to make the decision that best suits them.

 

I will be keeping an eye on it.

[J0e Th0rnton]

5 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

There's a reason we don't have discussions on here about losing loved ones to smallpox, diptheria, polio etc. It's because our parents and their parents didn't pull the "I have the right NOT to vaccinate" card. 

 

 Christ, look what handwashing, masks and flu shots have done for the flu this year. Anybody had it? Know anyone who has? Not sure about the US but we've have zero cases of community circulated influenza. The last time I heard the actual numbers, it was 17. SEVENTEEN. In Canada. And that's with increased testing. There's usually 17 in every single clinic waiting room at this time of year.

Smallpox is a low mutation virus and was probably the worst disease in history, worse than even the black death, and its mortality rate was in the 25 % range. The vaccine for smallpox was cowpox and having it was a guaranteed 100% effective treatment, and no known animal reservoirs other than humans existed, so animal mutations were not a worry.

 

Its not comparable.

 

Diphtheria is a bacterial infection, not viral. 

 

Polio probably should not be brought up. The early rushed multi source vaccination in the states was a disaster and the reason we had strenuous long term testing protocols because of how many lives it ruined.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

A quick glance at where we're at:

 

For comparison, the RED line indicates where we were when the NHL halted play last season.

 

The GREEN line is where we were when the NHL resumed play to finish the playoffs for last season.

 

The YELLOWY ORANGE line is where we are now (with the NHL talking about starting in January).

 

 

The NHL is going to wait as long as possible before making the announcement but it's pretty clear where this is going.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/americas/toronto-lockdown-covid-intl/index.html

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/covid-19-vaccine-canada-quebec-lockdown-1.5843045

 

A partial map of Ontario. Areas in grey are locked down. Areas in red are on the cusp of lockdown.

 

Even the Toronto Raptors weren't allowed to play here. They're playing their games in Florida. 

 

How many places are locked down in the US? Do they go state by state or city by city?  

[radoran]

44 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

I will be keeping an eye on it.

 

Right there with you, my friend.

 

Two of them.

 

[radoran]

1 minute ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

How many places are locked down in the US?

 

Effectively none.

 

That's one reason we're doing so well...

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 minute ago, radoran said:

 

Effectively none.

 

That's one reason we're doing so well...

 

 

Wow. I had no idea.   I assumed Canada and the US were taking similar actions but that you guys were getting hit harder because of your higher population density or something.    

[radoran]

2 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

Wow. I had no idea.   I assumed Canada and the US were taking similar actions but that you guys were getting hit harder because of your higher population density or something.    

 

A full response to this risks the thread being shut down for getting "political."

 

 

There are places with restaurants and theaters "shut down" but there are many scofflaws and no hard shutdown. We were - in Philly - much more "shut down" in March/April than we are now, for example.

Edited December 16, 2020 by radoran

[Math]

My girlfriend is working as a nurse in an ICU unit and will get the vaccine probably around New Year. If she turns into a zombie or starts to speak fluently russian or chinese, I'll keep you posted.

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Wow. I had no idea.   I assumed Canada and the US were taking similar actions but that you guys were getting hit harder because of your higher population density or something.    

 

We don't need no stinking lock down.

 

Thinning the herd....

[JR Ewing]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

A quick glance at where we're at:

 

For comparison, the RED line indicates where we were when the NHL halted play last season.

 

The GREEN line is where we were when the NHL resumed play to finish the playoffs for last season.

 

The YELLOWY ORANGE line is where we are now (with the NHL talking about starting in January).

 

 

 

The NHL is going to wait as long as possible before making the announcement but it's pretty clear where this is going.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/americas/toronto-lockdown-covid-intl/index.html

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/covid-19-vaccine-canada-quebec-lockdown-1.5843045

 

A partial map of Ontario. Areas in grey are locked down. Areas in red are on the cusp of lockdown.

 

 

Even the Toronto Raptors weren't allowed to play here. They're playing their games in Florida. 

 

How many places are locked down in the US? Do they go state by state or city by city?  

 

Even at that, Toronto isn't really locked down. There are restrictions, but it's not like people aren't allowed out of their homes, especially if the lineups at the malls are any sort of indication.

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

6 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Even at that, Toronto isn't really locked down. There are restrictions, but it's not like people aren't allowed out of their homes, especially if the lineups at the malls are any sort of indication.

 

 

These are the current rules for lockdown in Ontario:  

 

Gatherings and close contact

It is illegal to gather indoors with anyone you do not live with.

You must limit contact to your household (the people you live with) and stay at least 2 metres apart from everyone else.

Do not visit any other household or allow visitors in your home.

If you live alone, you can have close contact with only one other household.

All events and social gatherings:

• Indoors: not allowed, except with members of your household (or one other household if you live alone)
• Outside: 10 people

Religious, wedding and funeral services:

• Indoors: 10 capacity
• Outside: 10 people

Only go out for essential reasons, such as:

• work
• school
• groceries
• pharmacy
• health care
• helping vulnerable people
• exercise and physical activity

Work remotely, where possible.

---

Rules for all businesses

All open businesses must:

• screen employees (for example, using the COVID-19covid 19 Screening Tool for Workplaces - PDF)
• limit capacity so guests can stay at least 2 metres apart
• make sure anyone indoors wears a mask or face covering, including workers who have to come within 2 metres of anyone else
• make sure workers use personal protective equipment (PPE) that protects their eyes, nose and mouth when they have to come within 2 metres of anyone who is not wearing a mask or face covering or separated by plexiglass
• clean and disinfect often-touched surfaces, such as equipment, washrooms, locker rooms, change rooms and showers frequently
• create a safety plan and have it available upon request (for example, to inspectors or law enforcement officers)

---

Restaurants, bars and other food and drink establishments

Services available:

• Take-out
• Drive-through
• Delivery service

Closed:

• All indoor and outdoor service

---

Sports and recreational fitness facilities

Closed (limited exceptions, for example, day camps and child care).

---

Meeting and event spaces

Closed for meetings and events (limited exceptions, for example child care, mental health and addiction support services).

---

Stores

Services available:

• Online ordering
• Curbside pick-up
• Delivery

In-person shopping available for:

• Supermarkets
• Grocery stores
• Convenience stores
• Hardware stores
• Other retailers selling groceries
• Beer, wine and liquor stores
• Pharmacies
• Safety supply stores
• Outdoor markets, including farmer’s markets and holiday markets
• Garden centres, plant nurseries, by appointment only
• Motor and recreational vehicle, by appointment only

Malls open only for:

• pick-up or delivery
• access to businesses that are allowed to have in-person services (for example, pharmacies, dentists)
• take-away from food courts

50% capacity limit for all in-person shopping.

---

Personal care services

Closed

---

Casinos, bingo halls and gaming establishments

Closed

---

Cinemas

Only drive-ins allowed.

---

Performing arts facilities

No audiences allowed.

Rehearsing, recording or broadcasting an event or performance is allowed (for example, streaming a performance to an online audience).

Everyone must stay 2 metres away from each other, except when needed for the performance.

There must be a barrier (for example, plexiglass) between singers and wind- or brass-instrument players and other performers.

[JR Ewing]

@WordsOfWisdom

 

Yes, quite similar to here in BC.

 

[mojo1917]

On 12/16/2020 at 10:02 AM, J0e Th0rnton said:

Polio probably should not be brought up. The early rushed multi source vaccination in the states was a disaster and the reason we had strenuous long term testing protocols because of how many lives it ruined.

 

So science learned from that, eh?

wow.

 

If you have a dictionary handy here is the New England Journal of Medicine's report regarding the pfizer vaccine.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906

 

For me the fact that gene editing ( as i understand it, reverse engineering the SARS Cov2 molecule via a single rna strand) is a relatively new technology would be the only reason for pause.

 

 

 

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

10 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

 

So science learned from that, eh?

wow.

 

If you have a dictionary handy here is the New England Journal of Medicine's report regarding the pfizer vaccine.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906

 

For me the fact that gene editing ( as i understand it, reverse engineering the SARS Cov2 molecule via a single rna strand) is a relatively new technology would be the only reason for pause.

 

 

 

 

They learned to do long term testing. Doesn't mean much when they suspend long term testing to rush this new one out.

 

My brother had covid a month ago. he thought he had a cold. They forced him to have a test due to his runny nose and he was surprised to know he was positive.

 

he's 10 years older than me and a smoker. im confident in my chances if I get it.

 

im not vaccinating with these experimental guinea pig vaccines.

[WordsOfWisdom]

22 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

My brother had covid a month ago. he thought he had a cold. They forced him to have a test due to his runny nose and he was surprised to know he was positive.

 

Did he make a full recovery?  Is he now immune to catching it a second time?

[Podein25]

10 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Did he make a full recovery?  Is he now immune to catching it a second time?

 

We don't know.

 

The only thing we know for sure is that you're not immune to stupid.