BearOnIce

Harts needs to be put out to pasture with Bryz, Briere and Timo.

Briere, Timo and Harts can fetch a lot of draft picks and prospects in the coming couple of weeks.

Yup, the sooner we start, the better we get.

Meltzer makes excellent points.

And it really seems like nothing will change until Mr. Ed is no longer at the helm.

Yes and so unfortunate. And as long as Bob Clarke has an office there.

Another great article by Meltzer... puts everything into perspective and I think he is spot on here:

The upper management of the Philadelphia Flyers organization and a large segment of its fanbase are notorious for their impatience and what-have-you-done-for-us-lately assessments of personnel. Patience is at a minimum in this city, and it doesn't take much struggle for a young player to go from "untouchable" to the subject of a variety of trade rumors.

My biggest gripe with the Flyers' organization -- and this absolutely starts at the very top with Ed Snider as the biggest culprit -- is that the organization reverses its roster-building course too often in a seeming effort to retroactively win a previous year's Stanley Cup. They are bold but too often in a reactive rather than proactive way.

The Flyers have taken criticism for unloading quite a few of their former nucleus players within a year of deciding to sign them to long-term contract extensions. The frequent reversals of direction do not make the organization look very good to outsiders, but I think each and every move should be judged on its own merits and over a multi-year period.

That said, the organization's tendency toward impatience and all-too-quick reversal of course with developing young players is disturbing, and it spans back to the Bob Clarke years in which players went from building blocks to trade bait in the span of one down year.

When it comes to current struggling second-year Flyers Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn in particular, I think everyone needs to step back and take a deep breath. Everything is magnified in the condensed 48-game season, and since neither player has lived up to their rather lofty preseason expectations, they've been taking a lot of heat as of late. That's especially true in Couturier's case, as he's gone from golden boy to whipping boy in a few short months.

Here's the No. 1 thing to keep in mind: The Flyers have played two months of hockey. The season started on Jan 19. Today is March 20. In a normal season cycle, the Flyers would have played fewer than their current 30 games after two months. In a legitimate full season, it would be December, and we'd be still be several weeks away from the statistical halfway point of the schedule.

It would be utterly asinine to change one's bigger-picture perspective on a player based on two months of hockey or even half a season. This applies to veteran players, too, but especially to ones who are still in the development phase of their careers. I believe that Paul Holmgren understands this, but I'm not so sure that Ed Snider does in all his perpetual win-now fervor. At the end of the day, if the Comcast-Spectacor chairman isn't happy, his GM is going to make changes if he values his own job.

On an organizational level, the Flyers' perpetual win-now philosophy has very much played into their chronic inability to develop homegrown defensemen and goaltenders (though one could also argue that the pre-NHL scouting assessments of the pool of players entering the organization at these positions have also left something to be desired). There is very little tolerance for living through protracted growing pains.

Unfortunately, the learning curve for defensemen and goalies is even steeper and more protracted that that of forwards.

Unless you are prepared to wait as much as five years on a young defenseman or goaltending prospect to develop -- accepting inconsistency as part of the price tag and understanding there's a risk that your patience will never pay off in potential turning into performance -- your organization is going to have a tough time filling these positions from within.

A big part of the reason why the Flyers perpetually find themselves bumping against the salary cap ceiling is that the entire defense corps and the starting goaltending has had to be acquired from outside the organization via trade or free agency. That inability to build premium positions from within drives up the expenditure of cap space as well as depleting trading assets (especially in a leaguewide sellers' market for defensemen).

That being said, I don't advocate the Flyers abandoning their "take the best available player" drafting philosophy in the first round of the Draft. There is no such thing as having too much organizational depth at ANY position. That's a proven way to enable a well-run team to intelligently move around assets to shore up the weaker areas without opening new holes in the lineup.

Secondly, the "miss rate" on 18-year-old defensemen and goalies taken in the first round is even higher than that on forwards. If you draft a defensemen or goalie in round one, it's a roll of the dice. In terms of playing the odds, there's a higher chance of ending up with a player who will never be an NHL star on the blueline or in net (and stands a not-insignificant chance of being eclipsed in the next half decade by someone selected much later in the draft) than if you draft a comparably rated forward.

Unless the Flyers end up with the first or second overall pick of the 2013 Draft and select Seth Jones, there is a high probability that the best available player in their estimation will be a forward. This year's draft is very deep in skilled forwards, less so in defensemen projected to have future top-pairing upside.

That is not to say there won't be some future star defensemen to emerge from the 2013 Draft pool. However, the team that finds these players will need some fortune as well as good scouting and development. The Flyers don't seem to identify many of these future NHL defensemen and goalies in their teenage years, nor do they nurture the better ones that enter the farm system for long enough to reap the rewards down the road.

Even if the Flyers were to somehow end up being able to draft Seth Jones this year, the odds are that he will experience all the usual ups and downs of young defensemen. He will need to be nurtured gradually -- the way St. Louis did with Alex Pietrangelo or Nashville did back in the day with Shea Weber -- rather than being directly rushed into a big role at the NHL level.

Just take a look at some recent highly touted defensemen in the NHL Draft who went straight to the NHL. Adam Larsson has had his share of growing pains in New Jersey. Victor Hedman is only coming into his own now, in his fourth NHL season. Drew Doughty had his share of early struggles and even now in his fifth NHL season, sometimes has bouts of inconsistency as well as dominance. Buffalo's Tyler Myers had a great rookie year and has been up and down ever since.

Do not expect Jones -- or any defenseman in the 2013 Draft -- to be any different. He'll probably show flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. He'll also struggle for weeks or even months at a time in his early years. Over a period spanning four to five seasons after the draft (by which time he'll be on his second NHL contract), he may or may not start to fully tap into his reservoir of potential. It's just the way the process works, even for the guys who go on to be among the best in the game.

These same concepts apply to young forwards as well but the time frame is often (but not always) somewhat shorter. I would be thrilled if the Flyers ended up with any of the handful of high end forwards that will be available in the top 10 to 12 picks of the 2013 Draft. In the meantime, let's get back to former NHL 1st-round picks Couturier and Schenn.

Based on message board, Twitter and radio show fodder, it is crystal clear that a big segment of the Flyers fan base doesn't get the concept that:

a) teams need a balance of youth and experience, and too much youth or too many aging vets in key roles is a recipe for failure both in the short-term and long-term, and

b) players' development phases are more often NOT steady upward climbs and, regardless of how much promise a rookie shows, there's a good chance he will struggle at some point in his early career. The League gets a scouting book on these players and they have to learn to adjust.

One can reasonably debate whether the Flyers should consider trading Couturier or Schenn (or Jakub Voracek or Wayne Simmonds or Matt Read or anyone else not named Claude Giroux) as components of a major trade designed to upgrade the blueline. It's absolutely a fair topic for discussion. The Flyers' have a glaring need for a successful succession plan atop the blueline with Chris Pronger's career over and Kimmo Timonen likely to retire at the end of next season.

There is likely no way for the Flyers to address the top end of their blueline without feeling some pain in what they'll have to give up. They'll have to surrender talents they'd rather keep. That's just the reality.

However, to deal away Couturier or Schenn based solely on what they have or haven't done in this shortened season is extremely short-sighted. That's especially true because the Flyers as a team have not been very good this year. It has been a club-wide failure, and no one from the coaches to the GM to the players themselves deserves to be fully absolved from blame.

It's not just the second-year players who have come up small. In fact, several of the Flyers' key veteran forwards, especially Danny Briere and Scott Hartnell, are struggling just as badly as Couturier and Schenn.

With 18 games left in the regular season, the Flyers are unlikely to make the playoffs. As such, I would be fine with the Flyers' being sellers at the trade deadline this year. It would be good to stockpile a few extra Draft picks and begin to assess ways to return to contender status next season and beyond.

The team has some serious salary cap figuring to do as well as an obvious need for some roster retooling to make the personnel better match whatever system the coach employs. In the bigger picture, two bad months -- or even a rotten "full" 2013 season -- from Sean Couturier and/or Brayden Schenn is the least of the Flyers' roster-building concerns.

This is it. Exactly. Perfectly written and stated.

LOL..sorry Bear no I am from good ol Pennsylvania. I just happened to come across a picture of my screen name and thought it would make a cool avatar picture. I actually went to the Phila. College of Pharmacy and Science. I now live in Lancaster, PA. Sorry to disappoint ya. I was wondering when someone would think that was my actual license plate.

Thanks for the update. Good luck. You are in a great field.

All is forgiven. No worries. Forums such as these are hard to show emotion. Tough to tell when one is joking and when one is not. Don't worry all is good.

Totally agree it is not Lavi's fault. My blame lies squarely on the shoulders of Homer. .......

Are you from Oklahoma? Sooners fan? I went to school in Kansas. I am sure we are rivals in some way. Great part of the world. I get back there at least once a year to see friends get grounded again.

Just a question, if Brier would waive NMC, is there really any team out there that would take a chance on Brier respective of the remaining 2 years left and contract? I believe the contract is $6.5M a year but it is only $2M and $3M respectively. How does that work? Who eats the difference? Maybe this is academic because of the 2 buyouts that any team gets this coming year. Just was interested in hearing if anyone thought based upon his 5 goals this year, but clutch performance in his playoff history, would be such that a playoff team might take him and, and if so who? And given that the Flyers traditionally treat players who have produced positive results with respect, and would so with Dany Briere, who might he agree to go to. I heard Saint Louis mentioned last week but heard they looked and went cold.

Hey chill Bear...I'm not a Lavi hater. No need to get ugly with me. If you reread my post I said Homer was the one that started this mess. Never ever did I day it "was Lavi's fault." I simply said if he did get the axe that he would be the fall guy. I never once said I agree with it. I'm glad they won last night. Bryz stole a game for a change. Happy they won yes...however realistically this team has no chance of going deep into the playoffs. The defense is too suspect and Bryz IMO is not the answer to constantly bail out the "D" (then again there are few netminders that can do that on a consistent basis). IF this team makes the playoffs, then they have no shot of getting better through the draft by ways of drafting one of the top D prospects. IF they make the playoffs, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong and eat crow.. No need to get ugly towards me.

Pilldoc:

I was joking around. Sorry, did not mean to offend. I apologize. You are 100% correct in what you say. Like I've been bantering with Howie off and on all week, it is really ownership and GM that need to be in the spotlight more than the coach. The pressure the owner plays to win every year is good and bad. It's the architecture, drafting, development of this orgnaization more than the coaching execution. At least that is what I think. But having said that, what if Holmgren would of got Sutter or Webber, then added a Parise? Or who knows Nash? Then maybe JVR would not have been traded. Lots of what if's. I'll let this season roll as it is. Would rather miss playoffs and get shop at Top 6 D prospects. I know there are a lot of people that want Lavi out but I say not so fast! Let's take a mulligan this year.

BOI

I wish the Flyers had stuck it out with Bob; but this is not a thread about bemoaning trades using hindsight.. But like so many ex-Flyers it looks like he is having some recent success and I am happy for him. I might have to watch a Blue Jackets game just because I am curious to see him play.

From NHL.com

Who's hot: Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was brilliant again Thursday, stopping 39 of 40 shots over 65 minutes. Over his past seven starts he's 5-0-2 and has allowed one goal or fewer six times, including two shutouts. His save percentage is an eye-catching .971 over that span.

I did. Last week. They kid is great. Bob 1 Flyers 0

"IF" Lavi does get the axe...he will be the fall guy. Granted he should try everything possiblem, but he only has so much to work with. Homer created this mess. Especially the defense that is currently on this team. Homer needs to go as much as anybody. Sadly as someone else posted, Ed has the good ol boys from yesteryear and Lavi is not part of that club and therefore the odd man out.

For the record, I do not see them winning tonight. Gonna be a long 20 games to go......Top 5 pick here we come.........

Hmmm... Looks like Flyers won and they are headed for the playoffs. Turn your rage on Holmgren if you need to... Otherwise shut up. You could be in Florida.

Okay, so I was looking at Tim Panaccio's account of what Holmgren just said about the Flyers and Lavy.

Is Laviolette on the hot seat?

“I don’t think so,” Holmgren replied. “The coaches have done a good job. Right now, our team needs to play better. We’re making a lot of mistakes. A lot from our lack of competitiveness. Our team needs to compete better. I don't like the way we're playing right now, but I don't necessarily blame that on the coach.”

Asked if the Flyers continue to lose games in the manner they have, would he revisit thinking of making a coaching change, Holmgren replied, “I haven't even thought about it. You guys keep asking these questions about the coach and it hasn't even entered my mind."

I give you Panaccio's account of what Holmgren said on December 1, 2009--three days before firing John Stevens:

Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren expressed concern Tuesday over the club's play, but said there is no panic within the organization and he doesn't foresee major changes to either the roster or coaching staff.

The Flyers have lost five of six games, fallen to 9th overall in the Eastern Conference, and are 11 points behind the Atlantic Division-leader Pittsburgh.

"The results can get better," Holmgren said. "For the most part, we've played decent in games, but I think we can play better to get positive results. Over the course of 23-24 games, we've taken turns being good in certain areas and not so in other areas. We have to put our game together and be consistent."

http://www.necn.com/pages/landing_secretlife?blockID=97591&tagID=581

I'm telling you, Lavy is toast.

You're a genius. Another Laviolette hater.

They are so fundamentally flawed it's disturbing.

If I could summarize this team in one word it would be: INEFFICIENT.

Only team that seems to require 7 passes to start a "break" or as most teams call it, "getting out of their zone". Between the sloppy passing and turnovers (most that are unforced) they have to do everything twice over just to accomplish anything. People always talk about the key to beating the Flyers is to pressure them into mistakes, but the thing is they make enough mistakes on their own...

More on inefficiency, why do they pass so damn much in the offensive zone? Why do they always seem to turn with the puck in the wrong direction? They seem to have ZERO vision, outside of 2-3 of them. The problem with their passing is that they continue to try to make that pass that fails 99% of the time instead of attempting the smart pass or just taking the open shot. I'm always yelling for the Flyers to shoot more and stop passing so much. But In OT just now with the Devils, there was a play where (I believe it was Read) was carrying the puck up down the right side one-on-one with a Devil, with a Flyer trailing. Instead of making an easy drop pass to the trailing Flyer, the puck carrier just throws the puck right into the Devils defender... WHY?! So frustrating.

At least we got the extra point, but man did it look like the Flyers packed it in after regulation...

And I rarely say this, but Bryz probably had his best game all year. There were a handful of chances that I was sure the Devils were going to score on and he kept them in it.

Then don't.

Two questions:

1. Why are you watching a Flyers-Devils game, let alone in a car?

2. Who the heck is driving???

3.) What the heck has happened to Capt'n Girouz this year?

Bryz stole the game.... hate away boys...

Bryz will be here next year... And a number of years after that... But something tells me that there will be a number of new defencemen in front of him.. That boys is what our friend Mr Paul Holmgren will be up to...

From teh hockeydb.com

2008: 1 - Luca Sbisa (220 NHL GP, traded for Pronger); 3 - MAB (45 NHL GP, in AHL)

2005: 3 - Oskars Bartulis (66 NHL GP, bought out)

2003: 3 - Alexadre Picard (253 NHL GP, dealt for Prospal)

2002: 1 - Joni Pitkanen (526 NHL GP, dealt for Lupul)

2001: 1 - Jeff Woywitka (278 NHL GP, dealt for Comrie); 6 - Denis Seidenberg (558 NHL GP, traded for Nedved)

2000: 6 - Roman Cechmanek (212 NHL GP, dealt for 2nd rounder)

1999: 1 - Maxime Ouellet (12 NHL GP, dealt for Oates)

1998: 2 2nds, 4th used on D that never played an NHL game; 9 - Bruno St. Jacques (67 NHL gp)

1997: 2 - Jean-Marc Pelletier (7 NHL GP)

1995: 1 - Brian Boucher (328 NHL GP, we know this story); 6 - Dmitri Tertyshny (62 NHL GP, R.I.P.)

1994: 9 - Johan Hedberg (368 NHL GP, never invited to camp)

1993: 2 - Janne Niiniimaaa (741 NHL GP, traded for McGillis)

So that's 20 years

1991 they got Yushkevich (traded for 1st (Zubrus) and 2nd (Pelletier))

1990 Chris Therien

So, yeah, one could argue in the past 25 years or so they've successfully developed Chris Therien and maybe Boucher - depending on your definition of "success"

Wow. Therien? That's it?

At this point I'm beginning to accept the theory that Clarke and Homer are both just beholden to the whims of snider.

The Bryzgalov thing was the most public of Snider meddling and I have to assume at this point that it's been that way all along.

Maybe that's why he only hires people with a history in the franchise... so they feel beholden to him and can't seem to tell him, "No. That's not how to build a team Ed."

Bingo. This organization cannot change while there is still Ed Snider. Will Comcast wait until he is potted in the ground with the rest of the Sniders of Philadelphia up in Lemon Hill Cemetary? I'm not so sure. That is why there is a guy named Kukko who is a Comcast guy and who has a solid pedigree in sports management. In corporate sports today, you always have a plan B. That goes back to when Roberts was building Comcast. You got two camps in the Flyers organization right now but the Holmgren/Clarke/Snider camp is pretty suspect right now and i assure you under the Comcast microscope.

Scouting & development are serious issues with this team & have been for a long time.

When was the last time we drafted & developed a home-grown goalie or defenseman worth a darn? I have a hard time remembering ANY over the last 20+ years. (Am I missing one or two somewhere?)

We can draft forwards. Great. (Who can't?)

Hextall? Pelle? I honestly cannot remember. That's bad.

Bear:

What's interesting along the lines you raise is how common your sentiment is. Even Donnelson and Carchidi of the Inquirer are raising the kind of question you post. This is a system problem, not an individual screw-up problem. And it may be dawning on some, hopefully Lukko, that this @$it can't go on year in and year out.

Best,

Howie

Howie:

That is it exactly. This cannot go on year after year with blamming the players or the coach. Especially, changing the coach. Holmgren already has an issue with other GM's and hockey organizations in how he operates in the NHL like Attilla The Hun.

This year it was simple: Holmgren shot his load with Pronger. In a NY minute end of career for CP20. Terrible. Just terrible. Ok, Holmgren realized Pronger was gone, Kimmo just had a couple good years left in the tank, Colburn had not improved and was a marginal 1/2, and the stable of horses in the D barn quite inadequate, so he swung for the fences. Weber, Sutter. He missed. Took his eye off the ball and Carle was gone. So here and this is where we are. And with a G who gets undressed 3 on 2 or 2 on 1 when D gets caught. Oh, and who misses Jagr or JVR?

But the real issue is that this organization under Holmgren as GM does not develop players, especially D-men. They believe it can be done in the trade. Their scouts are marginal.

This is just not well managed organization. Just not that bright. That is why this is completely a top-down issue.

Lukko? There is a reason he is here. He is the Comcast back-up plan. He does have an impressive sports management track record up in Boston.

BOI

Well, I'm a heretic as well then. I was certainly a vocal opponent of naming Richards captain so early as I was Giroux. I really like Giroux and he probably will be a good captain someday, but again... it was just too damn early. Especially when you had vets with leadership on their resume already to bridge the gap. (read: timo).

This organization needs a GM and owner that will do what is right for the organization not necessarily what is right for the fans. I'm still waiting for either of them to make the tough decisions and grow some. They can start with admitting the FU with Bryz, getting him shipped out, and then getting some real assistant coaches for Laviolette instead of old Flyer punch bags. Oh, and now that there is plenty of time since no playoffs, start with the D.

@radoran

Yes, Giroux has quit along with everyone else. He was pretty frickin incredible ALL last year. And the year before that. He wasn't too shabby the year before that either. Meanwhile, Bryz' claim to fame as a Flyer is his goofy comments and unbelievably bad goals. (not to mention Giroux has made less in those 3 years than Bryz did last season) When you have a guy like that in net, giving up crappy goals on a regular basis for a year and a half now, I understand the quit. It's not right, but I get it. The eyerolling and headshakes say it all about the confidence the team has in their goalie(s).

I miss Jagr. I do not miss Roman Checkmanic (sp)

At the risk of sounding like a smart ass, if they have agreed to the trades, why the hell haven't they been traded yet? It's not like this team has improved their play in the last week!

If that is true they I would say we are in a true D re-build. We had three legit D-men. Pronger, Carle, and Kimmo. Pronger was like taking your finger out of the hole in the dam when he went down. We now have one legit D and if Kimmo traded we are in a full scale D-rebuild. But I do not see how the Flyers would not be a buyer either.

His system is no different then the system I played under. It's an aggressive puck pursuit in offensive zone. The idea is to keep it in the zone by keeping your dmen activated. Meaning at all times they are to pinch in to keep the puck in the zone. However the one thing that seems to be constant here this season is the failure for the forwards to cover the vacated point and then recycle. Also the third forward is not staying "high" in the zone. Basically between the face off circle. So when the dman pinches and the forward doesn't cover and the third forward isn't high and the puck slips past that pinching dman you got one dman back covering a 3-1 or 2-1 on a constant occurrence. The defensive zone coverage is a completely different topic. Lol. But I will make this one comment. This system is based on and is only successful with a good goalie who can make those odd man rushes. There will be breakdowns at times. Way too much now. But all you have to do is look at the canes. That 2-1 odd man rush rarely had a one timer attempt. The dman took that away. Shooter vs ward. That favors ward. He knew he had the shooter.

Great post. Exactly. When you play the game you understand. And when you have young foprwards like Schenn, Couts, etc., you do have those issues staying high in the zone. I think that we can both agree that Bryz is average on odd man rush so does that mean that we have added another layer of liability, not to mention that we have a D that is far from mobile, especially recovering. They have enough of an issue just getting control of the puck in their own zone and then transitioning. It's not Laviolette.

Although, to be fair, I'd much rather have an owner that is willing to do whatever he can to try to win a Cup. A LOT of other owners seem to care about nothing but making money.

Andy:

I agree about the winning part but I just think with all respect that Snider needs to step back and be willing to let Holmgren build and manage this organization. Snider did not do this with Clarke. He is not doing it with Holmgren now. If it takes 3-5 years to draft, develop, and grow, thre just has to be patience.

BOI

I'm not an X and O guy. I don't see the schemes they talk about but since he's been here our defense and goals allowed has gone up.

I'd love to be educated on why the system he is running isn't working but I see a team that:

1. Can't steal a game

2. Can't reliably hold a lead

3. Has to outplay the other team, count on the other team failing to convert on their chances, bury their own, and hope Bryz plays a decent game

...and a coach that has a free pass because of an HBO special and his ability to motivate his team in Timeouts.

If Stevens had to leave because we couldn't win the cup playing possum hockey, and allowing the team to act like they were at a country club, then I think Lavi has to leave for not finding a way to reduce the goals allowed.

Been reading other posts, Aziz's was awesome, team in transition. Maybe I'm over reacting. But if you have to build this thing back up I'd rather have a team that can play with a lead, play shut down D when it's called for. So let's get a coach/system that will let us do that.

With all respect, I will meet you at the Ben Franklin Bridge and we can talk about this so you don't go over the rail. The water is still very cold this time of the year. . We are all frustrated. Angry. You name it. Peter Laviolette has Cup. And with a team that was just ok and had a just ok goalie. He also took a Flyers team to the finals. I really don't think it is Peter. I think it is as simple as Holmgren swinging for the fence, missing badly, and then all the scrubs he brought in failing miserably to even come close to getting the job done on D. It has screwed up the entire team. And now understandably they are a mess to try and motivate. How can you lose Pronger, lose Carle, lose Jagr, have all the injuries out of the gate, and expect to do anything. Answer is you cannot. This is on the GM more than anyone and not the coach. We will get through this. :unsure:

This is what gets me. We have a young, inexperienced team, and this is a great learning and growing opportunity for them. To have your team suck in a shortened season is probably the best time to do it.

You would think that means letting these young guys cut their teeth out there. But instead, our GM sends down a young defenseman in Gus for inconsistent play, and replaces him with Gervais and Foster?

That's just bad asset management. This is a perfect time for Gus to gain experience, but our GM would rather grasp at straws to try and turn this sinking ship around. You know, it's not even a sinking ship. It's more like a rubber dinghy trying to keep up with cruise liners.

That is because Holmgren's marching orders are to win. Snider just does not get it.

@off_the_post The age old question, will the Flyers management and thier fans be patient enough to suck for a few years, stick to a solid plan and grow the proper way??/ I have my doubts.

Jammer:

It's not the fans as an issue, it is that old man Snider who sits upstairs at WFC sticking his sterrips in the side of Holmgren as he rides him unrelentingly expecting miracles and a Cup win every year. He is delusional. The fans would ride it out. Ed does not have the time though as he is looking at a define potting in the ground in the not so distant future up there on Lemon Tree Hill with the rest of the line of Sniders..

BOI