Flyers Report Card - Defense (What would you give them?)

[pilldoc]

School’s out. Time for the end of the report cards.

 

From The Athletic: (Thank you again Charlie O'connor)

 

Cam York (B-)

 

York was, by a long shot, the most exciting element of the Flyers blue line corps in 2022-23. It took him some time to make it back to the NHL after an underwhelming training camp, but once he did, he quickly established himself as a player that was more than ready not just to play, but excel.

His offense hasn’t come around yet on the power play — just three PP assists in 94 minutes. But at even strength, York thrived, both driving play and scoring points. He’s already the club’s most consistent and creative passer on the back end and his defensive work was surprisingly effective (70th percentile) given his age.

 

York has the talent to be even more impactful with the puck — Tortorella has implored him to be more aggressive on the attack. But even the 2022-23 version of York looked the part of a quality No. 2/3 NHL blueliner, and he has the upside to be even more than that.

 

Nick Seeler (B-)

 

Seeler may have been a third-pair defenseman for the Flyers. But he was a very good third-pair defenseman.

 

If Seeler had been bumped up the depth chart and asked to take on top-pair minutes, his performance would have surely dipped; even Seeler himself acknowledged as much at times. But in his role, Seeler was stellar. He served as a stabilizing force for struggling, recently demoted defensemen like Rasmus Ristolainen and Tony DeAngelo, probably led the defense in “saves the day” plays (Tortorella’s phrase) and even graded out well by advanced stats. Not bad for a player on essentially a league-minimum salary.

 

His grade more so reflects that Seeler was sheltered and kept away from the toughest matchups all season, meaning that the Flyers knew on some level that Seeler wouldn’t be able to solve the defense’s bigger problems. But in the matchups he did receive, Seeler performed admirably.

 

Rasmus Ristolainen (C+)

 

Ristolainen as a play-driver?

 

Yep, that happened.

 

Ristolainen’s season is still in the C+ range for a few reasons. He was downright awful for the first month of the season. He didn’t score his first point until Dec. 23. And he’s still overpaid at $5.1 million, even if this is the version of Ristolainen that the Flyers can expect to receive for the next four years.

 

That said, Ristolainen did dramatically improve. Tortorella and assistant coach Brad Shaw worked to mold him into a true defensive defenseman — think a bigger, more athletic Justin Braun — and it actually worked? Ristolainen largely stopped chasing hits for the sake of hitting, became a much more effective pokechecker and stayed in structure far more often, allowing him to take full advantage of his enormous frame. The result? He ranked 12th among NHL defensemen in xG suppression impact per Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM model, and while Risto 2.0 did drag down the Flyers’ offensive capabilities in the process, his defensive work was so effective that he still graded out in the 76th percentile by overall xG differential impact.

 

On the whole, Ristolainen didn’t have a great year, since those early struggles can’t just be wiped out of existence. But if he can retain his play-driving gains while producing more like the player from the second half (18 points in 44 games in 2023)? Perhaps this contract might not be an albatross after all.

 

Justin Braun (C-)

 

We move from the younger, bigger and faster version of Braun to … Braun.

 

Braun basically just did his job as the Flyers’ seventh defenseman this year. He dressed for 51 games — one, memorably, at wing — and was largely unspectacular in those games. He didn’t move the scoring needle (just two points) but wasn’t a major on-ice liability, either. Braun rides into retirement as a perfectly acceptable depth NHL defenseman.

Edited April 22, 2023 by pilldoc

[pilldoc]

Egor Zamula (D+) 

 

Zamula showed flashes of his top-four defenseman upside, and got an extended taste of NHL action. But it’s worth remembering that exiting camp, he had jumped York on the organizational depth chart and made the final roster over his higher-touted peer. Early struggles relinquished that advantage, and now, he’ll enter 2023 training camp as a bubble player (again) coming off shoulder surgery rather than the roster lock that York is. Just a missed opportunity for Zamula.

 

Ivan Provorov (D+) 

 

Provorov has never really been an advanced stat monster, but his results fell off a cliff in 2022-23. It was basically a worse version of his disappointing 2018-19 campaign — ninth percentile in play-driving, just 26 points in 82 games, and the highest PK goals against per 60 of any Flyers defenseman.

 

At times, there were glimpses of the player who so excited the Flyers in years past — his highlight-reel overtime goal to end the season in Game 82, his warrior mentality in terms of blocking shots and returning quickly after particularly painful-looking ones. But offensively, Provorov continues to scuttle, and at 26, it doesn’t look like that side of his game is ever going to come together. In past disappointing seasons, you could at least look at Provorov’s statistical profile and convincingly argue that he was a good No. 2 defenseman miscast as a No. 1 with the Flyers and lacking much help in terms of a partner. This season, however, he didn’t even reach that bar. He was just underwhelming — period, regardless of circumstances. York’s ability to consistently upstage him on a nightly basis really hammered home the degree of Provorov’s regression.

[pilldoc]

Tony DeAngelo (D+)

 

Yes, DeAngelo has always graded out poorly in terms of defense. But in the past, he’d never been so bad defensively that it completely outweighed his undeniable offensive talents. He was usually a break-even player at five-on-five who provided serious value on the power play and produced well point-wise at even strength.

 

This year? Mediocre point production (given his usage) at five-on-five and the power play, combined with what was statistically the worst defensive season of his career.

 

It wasn’t all bad from DeAngelo. His 19 power play points ranked him tied for 17th among NHL defensemen, and his 42 total points put him 26th. He absolutely helped the Flyers’ breakout with his slick passes and smooth skating, and I don’t pin the Flyers’ power play struggles on him — there was little continuity there, combined with not enough talent at the forward position to allow him to take full advantage of his distributing abilities.

 

That said, if you pay an offensive defenseman $5 million per year after giving up three draft picks to get him in the first place, you’re doing it with the expectation that he’s going to light up the scoreboard, significantly improve the power play and be a staple in the team’s top four. DeAngelo did none of those things in 2022-23.

 

Travis Sanheim (F)

 

I’ve long been a Sanheim defender (Charlie O'connor), so I take no pleasure in this evaluation: Sanheim was brutal this season.

Sanheim’s inherent weaknesses are clear at this point. He’s not especially physical, and while he makes fewer glaring mistakes than his haters believe, when he does mess up, it tends to be in spectacular fashion. In Sanheim’s best seasons, however, he was able to compensate for those flaws by being the Flyers’ most dynamic defenseman on the attack, and helping the team to significantly outshoot and outchance the opposition at even strength when he skated.

 

This season, he didn’t score (just 23 points). He was a play-driving liability (ninth percentile by xG impact). And all of his other flaws remained. It became an “Office Space” situation of “What would you say you do here?”

 

Sanheim has shown in the past that he’s a lot better than he was in 2022-23. And he better be, given the eight-year contract that starts next season.

 

OK ...there you go ....how would you grade out the Flyers Defense? Who barely passes and who flunks out .....

 

I await your fantastic insight and thoughts .....

 

Forwards / Goalies / Coaches (Management) to follow ........