Elo-based Playoffs projections

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I ran the teams Elo predictions for the playoff series since 1988 through 2016.

 

Scores - amount of exact series outcome predictions
Winners - amount of correct winner predictions.
Missed - amount of missing on the winner predictions.

 

Season: 1988 Scores: 3 Winners: 9 Missed: 3
Season: 1989 Scores: 2 Winners: 11 Missed: 2
Season: 1990 Scores: 1 Winners: 8 Missed: 6
Season: 1991 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 1992 Scores: 4 Winners: 8 Missed: 3
Season: 1993 Scores: 3 Winners: 4 Missed: 8
Season: 1994 Scores: 4 Winners: 5 Missed: 6
Season: 1995 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 1996 Scores: 3 Winners: 8 Missed: 4
Season: 1997 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 1998 Scores: 2 Winners: 7 Missed: 6
Season: 1999 Scores: 3 Winners: 9 Missed: 3
Season: 2000 Scores: 1 Winners: 7 Missed: 7
Season: 2001 Scores: 3 Winners: 7 Missed: 5
Season: 2002 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 2003 Scores: 5 Winners: 6 Missed: 4
Season: 2004 Scores: 7 Winners: 4 Missed: 4
Season: 2006 Scores: 2 Winners: 7 Missed: 6
Season: 2007 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 2008 Scores: 3 Winners: 7 Missed: 5
Season: 2009 Scores: 4 Winners: 7 Missed: 4
Season: 2010 Scores: 2 Winners: 9 Missed: 4
Season: 2011 Scores: 3 Winners: 6 Missed: 6
Season: 2012 Scores: 3 Winners: 8 Missed: 4
Season: 2013 Scores: 4 Winners: 5 Missed: 6
Season: 2014 Scores: 6 Winners: 5 Missed: 4
Season: 2015 Scores: 3 Winners: 5 Missed: 7
Season: 2016 Scores: 3 Winners: 9 Missed: 3

 

Over 420 series (28 seasons X 15 series) in total, the model predicted 66% of the winners correctly (275). Remarkable is that in the wild 2012 (8th-placed Kings defeated 6th-placed Devils in the finals) it got 11 out of 15 correctly. Only once less than half was predicted correctly (7 out of 15 in 1993). The highest level was in 1989 (13 out of 15), but in the last one it was pretty decent with 12 out of 15. Highest level of prediction of the exact score was 7 out of 15 in 2004.